Prospect Info: Robert Hagg [March 2014: AAV is $925k, 3-yr ELC, per Tim P.]

[hatcher]

As the Pens showed?
What you just described is good transition from defense to offense; not good defense.

Which is something I find Robert to be especially terrible at.

Pens d made the right plays and when forechecker it was off the glass and reset. Take the body. Pens the last two years are underated d. Compete level high.

 

[Striiker]

Hagg is only "solid" because he hits. Too bad that doesn't help the team win.

 

[FLYguy3911]

+15 Haters

 

[Rebels57]

This never ending Hagg debate is really Beating A Dead Weise at this point.

 

[BritainStix]

Its rather sad isnt it. If Morin and Sanhiem had been on the starting lineup from the start no one would be complaining.

It really is true that the flyers fanbase always needs a scapegoat. This time its a defensive rookie 30 games into a season.

Its hilarious that people refuse to see any redeeming qualities in him. Then again they also claim to have watched all of the AHL games last year and cant possibly change their opinion.

 

[Curufinwe]

I thought he made two solid plays on the 2nd goal last night.

 

[Striiker]

Its rather sad isnt it. If Morin and Sanhiem had been on the starting lineup from the start no one would be complaining.

It really is true that the flyers fanbase always needs a scapegoat. This time its a defensive rookie 30 games into a season.

Its hilarious that people refuse to see any redeeming qualities in him. Then again they also claim to have watched all of the AHL games last year and cant possibly change their opinion.

What an ignorant post. Typical.

Who blamed him for the teams record this year? I've only seen people critiquing his play (accurately), not "scapegoating" him.

Feel free to list his redeeming qualities, other than hits or blocks, which mean nothing. It's also not an opinion, it's an evaluation. If you watched him play you'd understand.

 

[hatcher]

Again he's is a rock solid player that all teams want. We are lucky to have him along with all the others.

 

[Striiker]

So you like MacDonald too?

 

[whitstifier]

So you like MacDonald too?

Speaking of MacDonald, he has some crazy oZS/dZS splits--27.6/72.4. Hagg's starts are also heavily tilted toward the defensive zone for a rookie. I kinda want to see a Hagg-MacDonald pairing with similar usage splits just to see how much of a trainwreck it would be.

 

[hatcher]

So you like MacDonald too?

Not at 5mil but when he came back everyone got more comfortable on d and with Gudas back were solid now.

 

[FLYguy3911]

They started doing it last night. Amac took a couple of Ghost’s shifts in the DZ and hopped right off.

 

[sa cyred]

From an advanced statistic standpoint, he is receiving some tough minutes and performing averagely (blocked shots, making shots miss, and shots against). For a player not supposed to get competition on the level of Provorov, average play isn't a bad thing.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Every single person that says those who don't think Hagg is an effective player refuses to acknowledge he has any positives is doing exactly what most of them flip out at deadhead for doing -- not reading and making your own narrative. Please rethink that stance.

From an advanced statistic standpoint, he is receiving some tough minutes and performing averagely (blocked shots, making shots miss, and shots against). For a player not supposed to get competition on the level of Provorov, average play isn't a bad thing.

Really and truly, no, and it's not about any one player.

You can't just look at defensive (or offensive) metrics and declare a player is playing well/not. You can say he/she is doing some things well, but the description of overall play MUST be about the total package or you're approaching the problem from an angle that says you are deciding weights of importance rather than the data. You absolutely cannot do this objectively.

 

[sa cyred]

Every single person that says those who don't think Hagg is an effective player refuses to acknowledge he has any positives is doing exactly what most of them flip out at deadhead for doing -- not reading and making your own narrative. Please rethink that stance.



Really and truly, no, and it's not about any one player.

You can't just look at defensive (or offensive) metrics and declare a player is playing well/not. You can say he/she is doing some things well, but the description of overall play MUST be about the total package or you're approaching the problem from an angle that says you are deciding weights of importance rather than the data. You absolutely cannot do this objectively.

Of course. I hate cherry picking of data. The point is to show a positive for Hagg. But if we are looking for a positive, he IS blocking shots, making players miss the net, and being somewhat physical. Those are some very important statistics when you review how the game is played. To continue saying how bad he is doing offensively isn't objectively looking at the whole thing either. Does he need to work on his offensive game? Of course he does. Just like Ghost/Sanhiem need to work on their defensive game, which are both backed by the exact same metrics I used for Hagg. Obviously those two are on a different tier than Hagg is, but comparing areas needed for improvement while looking at advanced stats, those two need work in that area, as much as Hagg needs work in another area.

On a side note, MacD/Manning both exhibit pretty poor overall stats... which shows the eye test is pretty accurate in that case.

One needs to be careful using advanced stats in general. I use statistics in my real life job. As we always say, it's not the full story. It's to help build it.

 

[Jack Straw]

Of course. I hate cherry picking of data. The point is to show a positive for Hagg. But if we are looking for a positive, he IS blocking shots, making players miss the net, and being somewhat physical. Those are some very important statistics when you review how the game is played. To continue saying how bad he is doing offensively isn't objectively looking at the whole thing either. Does he need to work on his offensive game? Of course he does. Just like Ghost/Sanhiem need to work on their defensive game, which are both backed by the exact same metrics I used for Hagg. Obviously those two are on a different tier than Hagg is, but comparing areas needed for improvement while looking at advanced stats, those two need work in that area, as much as Hagg needs work in another area.

On a side note, MacD/Manning both exhibit pretty poor overall stats... which shows the eye test is pretty accurate in that case.

One needs to be careful using advanced stats in general. I use statistics in my real life job. As we always say, it's not the full story. It's to help build it.

Young defensemen need to learn and improve. Who knew?

 

[Striiker]

He doesn't need to work on his offensive game "just like Ghost/Sanhiem need to work on their defensive game"... they're two very very different situations.

His offensive game is pretty hopeless because he has a total lack of offensive IQ. At least Ghost and Sanheim have made noticeable progress. Hagg hasn't and isn't.

I don't understand why people are suddenly pretending that core flaws are easily able to be fixed. Being bad at something at every level is very different from being good at something, then struggling when you jump up a level, but then making progress and adjusting. They're adjusting, that's why they get so much more patience and are more positively thought of.

 

[sa cyred]

He doesn't need to work on his offensive game "just like Ghost/Sanhiem need to work on their defensive game"... they're two very very different situations.

His offensive game is pretty hopeless because he has a total lack of offensive IQ. At least Ghost and Sanheim have made noticeable progress. Hagg hasn't and isn't.

I don't understand why people are suddenly pretending that core flaws are easily able to be fixed. Being bad at something at every level is very different from being good at something, then struggling when you jump up a level, but then making progress and adjusting. They're adjusting, that's why they get so much more patience and are more positively thought of.

We can agree to disagree. I don't agree with the total lack of offensive IQ idea. He doesnt have it right now of course, but he had the ability in the past to provide some type of offense (not even talking points). Whether it is because he wasn't developed well, or if he did it to himself, I don't full believe that at 22 he is what he is at this point. He has shown progress in other area's of his game which shows he isn't fully done developing. I am talking about developing SOME type of game offensively.

I guess where "your" side differs compared to the side myself and others are on is the idea that his offensive game is an irreversible core flaw (if I am understanding you correctly). It is tough for me to say that at the moment, because Hagg has shown over the past year that he CAN improve on area's that need work. If you asked me about a year ago, I would most likely be on your side after 2 fairly average years in the AHL (even though one of them was at 19/20 which we all know is fairly difficult taste in the AHL). But those last 6 months or so, he really turned his game around and improved on some of the areas he really struggled on (he used to lose his man a lot more frequently. That greatly improved).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Of course. I hate cherry picking of data. The point is to show a positive for Hagg. But if we are looking for a positive, he IS blocking shots, making players miss the net, and being somewhat physical. Those are some very important statistics when you review how the game is played. To continue saying how bad he is doing offensively isn't objectively looking at the whole thing either. Does he need to work on his offensive game? Of course he does. Just like Ghost/Sanhiem need to work on their defensive game, which are both backed by the exact same metrics I used for Hagg. Obviously those two are on a different tier than Hagg is, but comparing areas needed for improvement while looking at advanced stats, those two need work in that area, as much as Hagg needs work in another area.

On a side note, MacD/Manning both exhibit pretty poor overall stats... which shows the eye test is pretty accurate in that case.

One needs to be careful using advanced stats in general. I use statistics in my real life job. As we always say, it's not the full story. It's to help build it.

Agreed on the larger points completely. I am in much of the same professional situation and approach and I’m glad that I simply misunderstood what you were saying. My apologies for that.

Applying context to numbers and examining from multiple angles at once to paint a more accurate picture is where the end value ultimately lies. It’s in the application of such context that I worry so much about Hagg as this organization develops him. A player as passive as Hagg or MacDonald absolutely can succeed, but again, the bar is so much higher. I’ll skip the blocked shots because I suspect we will never agree on the value of those, but Shot Suppression has real value. How much good does it actually do you if you can’t help retrieve the puck and flip Possession, though? Then you get into the debate of the relative value of a Goal/Shot For versus one Against. I’m at the point where I feel comfortable saying that one For is worth more and I can back it up with data.

Even if we throw out his questionable offensive instincts, the offense is unlikely to come because he has received coaching that pushes him toward the defensive side being his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priority. When I criticize Hagg as being ineffective, I’m as much (or really, more) criticizing the management and coaching staff as I am him as a player. I don’t see them ever pushing him to become more and that’s a clear disservice to Hagg himself. It’s the same thing they did to Morin.

 

[deadhead]

On a side note, MacD/Manning both exhibit pretty poor overall stats... which shows the eye test is pretty accurate in that case.

One needs to be careful using advanced stats in general. I use statistics in my real life job. As we always say, it's not the full story. It's to help build it.

5x5
MacDonald CF% 44.4% CFrel -2.0%, SCF% 46.4, HDCF% 46.7, xGF% 49.7%, xGFrel% 1.1
Manning CF% 50.1 CFrel 0.9%, SCF% 50.5 HDCF% 50.8, xGF% 52.4%, xGFrel% 2.1

Don't know what universe Manning exhibits pretty poor overall stats.
Even MacDonald, while subpar, aren't really "poor," so-so or mediocre would be more accurate
Looking at his CF/xGF v his Rel stats, MacDonald has much tougher usage than most of the D-men.

 

[sa cyred]

5x5
MacDonald CF% 44.4% CFrel -2.0%, SCF% 46.4, HDCF% 46.7, xGF% 49.7%, xGFrel% 1.1
Manning CF% 50.1 CFrel 0.9%, SCF% 50.5 HDCF% 50.8, xGF% 52.4%, xGFrel% 2.1

Don't know what universe Manning exhibits pretty poor overall stats.
Even MacDonald, while subpar, aren't really "poor," so-so or mediocre would be more accurate
Looking at his CF/xGF v his Rel stats, MacDonald has much tougher usage than most of the D-men.

Compared to the rest of the defense?

Rk	Player	Age	Pos	GP	CF	CAâ–¼	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiSH%	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%	TOI/60	TOI(EV)	TK	GV	E+/-	SAtt.	Thru%
10	Brandon Manning	27	D	22	340	354	49	-0.1	247	281	46.8	-2.7	6.8	92.9	99.7	48.6	51.4	19:06	17:04	5	15	2.6	79	51.9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You didnt bring up Mannings QUAL which is, as a 3rd pairing defender getting plenty of 5v5 time, is below average.

 

[FLYguy3911]

3rd pairing defenders also play with their teams 3rd and 4th lines a lot...It works both ways.

 

[sa cyred]

Agreed on the larger points completely. I am in much of the same professional situation and approach and I’m glad that I simply misunderstood what you were saying. My apologies for that.

Applying context to numbers and examining from multiple angles at once to paint a more accurate picture is where the end value ultimately lies. It’s in the application of such context that I worry so much about Hagg as this organization develops him. A player as passive as Hagg or MacDonald absolutely can succeed, but again, the bar is so much higher. I’ll skip the blocked shots because I suspect we will never agree on the value of those, but Shot Suppression has real value. How much good does it actually do you if you can’t help retrieve the puck and flip Possession, though? Then you get into the debate of the relative value of a Goal/Shot For versus one Against. I’m at the point where I feel comfortable saying that one For is worth more and I can back it up with data.

Even if we throw out his questionable offensive instincts, the offense is unlikely to come because he has received coaching that pushes him toward the defensive side being his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priority. When I criticize Hagg as being ineffective, I’m as much (or really, more) criticizing the management and coaching staff as I am him as a player. I don’t see them ever pushing him to become more and that’s a clear disservice to Hagg himself. It’s the same thing they did to Morin.

I can agree with this post fully. I like blocked shots more so for the positioning aspect than anything (unless he is blocking the goalie which does happen etc), but I can see why CORSI can be looked down upon (which is why luckily FENWICK is around ) It's tough for me to put Hagg in the same sentence as MacD for I do see them as different players. While I do agree Hagg is still too passive, I do think MacD is on a whole other level of being passive. I'm not a fan of BSH because they are the epitome of cherry picking advanced stats, but they have a very good article on MacD and how he defends entering the zone. I was watching last night's game, and trying to see how Hagg positions himself compared to MacD and I do think he is abit more aggresive, keeping the defender outside and challenging when he believes is the right time. MacD on the other hand just keeps skating backwards, never challenging until literally he is on the goalie.

I wish I saved Hagg's CA/CF before he played with Provorov. They were very good for a rookie D. They took a DIVE when he was placed on that top unit. Provorov faces the top competition every single night, so in general his CA is always fairly high.

 

[sa cyred]

3rd pairing defenders also play with their teams 3rd and 4th lines a lot...It works both ways.

True, but if you compare to the 4th liners he has been with (Laughton/Leier(who has been fantastic advanced stats wise)/Raffl) they have faired extremely well. The only way you can make that case is if he played mostly with Patrick/Weiss who are nightly struggling in all advanced categories.

 

[Striiker]

We can agree to disagree. I don't agree with the total lack of offensive IQ idea. He doesnt have it right now of course, but he had the ability in the past to provide some type of offense (not even talking points). Whether it is because he wasn't developed well, or if he did it to himself, I don't full believe that at 22 he is what he is at this point. He has shown progress in other area's of his game which shows he isn't fully done developing. I am talking about developing SOME type of game offensively.

I guess where "your" side differs compared to the side myself and others are on is the idea that his offensive game is an irreversible core flaw (if I am understanding you correctly). It is tough for me to say that at the moment, because Hagg has shown over the past year that he CAN improve on area's that need work. If you asked me about a year ago, I would most likely be on your side after 2 fairly average years in the AHL (even though one of them was at 19/20 which we all know is fairly difficult taste in the AHL). But those last 6 months or so, he really turned his game around and improved on some of the areas he really struggled on (he used to lose his man a lot more frequently. That greatly improved).

I think his improved play last year was overrated because of how bad he was before that. He made a huge jump, but most of that was because right before that improvement he took a giant step backwards and was looking like a complete lost cause.

And yeah, I personally don't think he has a chance to make significant progress offensively or in transition. Can it get better? Sure, but I doubt the improvement will be enough to fix the problem. It'll always be a weak point and I think that's unacceptable in the present day NHL (the puck moving issues, not the scoring). Everyone has to be able to move the puck or they're going to be targeted and exposed. As far as I can tell, he has the physical ability to do it, which means it's an IQ/mentality problem... and that's the hardest thing to fix. I don't care if he never scores much at all, I care that his horrible puck moving makes it harder for others to score. Ghost and the forwards being stuck in their zone because Hagg is below average at moving the puck hurts a lot more than Hagg not being able to score himself.