Red Wings between now and New Years.

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,212
4,423
Boston, MA
I'm relieved. There hasn't been any negative threads for awhile on this forum. Thanks for making the weekly quota.

I love that the Red Wings aren't bottoming out like many here hoped they would. I hope the Red Wings keep winning. The rest can keep playing the draft lottery simulator.

They aren't bottoming out yet, but their position in the world is inflated for playing 2 more games than other teams.
 

Reddwit

Registered User
Feb 4, 2016
7,696
3,418
Detroit is back in the bottom 10 and out of a playoff spot. A Boston win tonight gives the B’s 26 points in 23 games. Montreal wins also, 25 points in 26 games for them but they have the ROW tiebreaker.
 

golffuul

Registered User
Oct 24, 2011
4,923
2,784
Does parity help increase revenue across the board?
IMO...Parity is good, if and only if, every team were equally competitive in their approach to running their teams.

Having teams like Arizona or even teams like Colorado, Florida, Buffalo, and to an extent the Islanders, really hampers the league in terms of its ability to take small-market or mid-market teams palatable to their respective audiences. The average fans don't want to show up to games knowing that the owner isn't doing everything they can to help the team win, and that usually is as a result of those same owners being strapped for cash and putting limits on how much they want to spend in actual salary. It's harder for folks in Arizona, Carolina, and Florida, especially, to sell tickets and not drain the leagues revenue via revenue-sharing, because they can't draw enough fans to make enough revenue for themselves. And the parity is really starting to hit what have usually been amazingly solid markets like Calgary and Ottawa where they are no longer selling out their respective buildings for home games. Add to that teams like Dallas or Columbus that need extended periods of time being in the playoffs and going on long runs, in order to generate sell-outs and even that isn't guaranteed, because if they have one or two down years, they will lose a good amount of their average fan base to other sports teams in their area where the entertainment dollar has competition for the average consumer.
 

DetroitRed

Crashes the Crease
Apr 7, 2013
2,871
951
Detroit
I'm not holding my breath for any particular draft pick, not least of all because they pretty much never take the favorite no matter where they draft from. But I'm not holding out for them to make the playoffs, either...

I will say, given the stage of rebuild they are in, they've impressed me through some pretty significant injuries. Also, there's no way I can see them trying to win and not want them to be successful. I still support them as a fan.

Notwithstanding, my initial estimate was for them to finish about 27th over all, and I now think that I underestimated them a bit (although not by much). They could easily still wind up around 25th over all. I don't see them finishing in like 22nd place or better.

Whatever happens though, they will not trade away future picks to bolster for a playoff run, this time around. I'm not saying should or shouldn't; I'm just saying they wont.
 
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jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
10,852
8,577
Detroit is currently on pace for 79 points, which is exactly how they finished last season.

But at this point last year, they were 13-11-2, and are currently 10-11-5. And if they end up selling Green, I have to imagine that would have as big or even bigger of an impact than the collective departures of last year.
 

WingedWheel1987

Registered User
Jan 11, 2011
13,324
903
GPP Michigan
Playoffs aren't happening. Time to sell and focus exclusively on the DRW roster 4-5 years from now.

Trade Green and Nyquist sooner rather than later, so that the Wings can secure themselves more pong pong balls.

Play Ericsson 30+ minutes a night.

I can't stand watching a team that is only trying to luck into a first round exit. Right now the Wings are playing meaningless hockey. The fans that want the playoffs aren't going to see that and the fans that want to see a rebuild aren't seeing that either. So who actually wants to see this continue?
 

TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
12,466
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Ontario
I think Hollands luck with not trading Yzerman for Yashin, and Datsyuk for Gomez, Mantha for Myers has made him afraid of never making a big trade
 

Beltv

Registered User
Apr 13, 2017
441
51
Shoot, may not have to trade anything or anyone and get a top pick. Maybe Ken Holland is already trying to secretly tank? lol.
 

Redder Winger

Registered User
May 4, 2017
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Detroit is currently on pace for 79 points, which is exactly how they finished last season.

But at this point last year, they were 13-11-2, and are currently 10-11-5. And if they end up selling Green, I have to imagine that would have as big or even bigger of an impact than the collective departures of last year.

At this point, Buffalo and Arizona are the only worse teams who are considerably worse.
If Howard doesn't regain form, and if Mrazek stays where he's at, we could catch them, but I doubt it.

On the other hand, if our goalies play very well, could compete for the last spot in the Atlantic.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,756
4,569
Cleveland
I think Hollands luck with not trading Yzerman for Yashin, and Datsyuk for Gomez, Mantha for Myers has made him afraid of never making a big trade

Mantha's looked good for us this year, but Myers isn't exactly bad in Winni now that he's healthy again. Given I have more faith in this team finding forwards than D and I'd probably make that deal.
 

Reddwit

Registered User
Feb 4, 2016
7,696
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At this point, Buffalo and Arizona are the only worse teams who are considerably worse.
If Howard doesn't regain form, and if Mrazek stays where he's at, we could catch them, but I doubt it.

On the other hand, if our goalies play very well, could compete for the last spot in the Atlantic.

I don't even think the latter is true. Being in that #3 spot has been nothing more than a fluke. Almost every team in the Atlantic below us has underperformed. We have, at worst, performed as expected but most would say we've overperformed. Then we had 2-3 more games played than all the other relevant parties. Then you have to factor in the fact that our schedule was a cakewalk through the first 20 games. Lastly, we got some really hot starts from our top veteran F, D, and G, who were consequently worked to the bone, and have now begun to drop off with just 1/3 of the season under their belts.
 

Reddwit

Registered User
Feb 4, 2016
7,696
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Ottawa wins. They're now just 1 point behind us with 2 games in hand.

Florida has lost, though. 3 points back with 1 game in hand.
 

Reddwit

Registered User
Feb 4, 2016
7,696
3,418
If Edmonton and Ottawa win their next game and we lose to Winnipeg, we drop to 27th. If Florida and Philly win their next game to boot and we lose to Winnipeg, we are a bottom 3 team, ahead of only Arizona and Buffalo. I don’t know what’s real anymore.
 

TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
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Ontario
third last in the league has a 9.5% chance at #1 overall

it seems unlikely that we'll drop below buffalo or Arizona
 

Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
10,249
547
third last in the league has a 9.5% chance at #1 overall

it seems unlikely that we'll drop below buffalo or Arizona
It's supposed to be a deep draft. Top3 would be fine with me. That said, this is why I'm for tanking. 9.5% sucks. Looks like it's 18% for the worst team with a 48% chance of a top3 and a guaranteed top4. Whereas being 3rd place means ~31% for top3 and could draft as low as 6th.

I just keep coming back to, is what I'm watching right now really all that different from what Buffalo and Arizona fans are watching? I doubt it. This team is not fun to watch. We're simply not competitive. I don't mind watching a slightly worse product for significantly better odds.
 
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Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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It's supposed to be a deep draft. Top3 would be fine with me. That said, this is why I'm for tanking. 9.5% sucks. Looks like it's 18% for the worst team with a 48% chance of a top3 and a guaranteed top4. Whereas being 3rd place means ~31% for top3 and could draft as low as 6th.

I just keep coming back to, is what I'm watching right now really all that different from what Buffalo and Arizona fans are watching? I doubt it. This team is not fun to watch. We're simply not competitive. I don't mind watching a slightly worse product for significantly better odds.
Trouble is it's really, really hard to deliberately become so bad you finish last. We're on a deeply embarrassing 7 game losing streak and still almost 10 points ahead of Buffalo.
I wouldn't attempt to become worse than them unless I knew we could then throw a bag of money at the best coach in the world who can fast-track a return to good habits and work ethic again. Otherwise the increase in draft lottery odds is far from worth the risk that we'd spend 5 years in the bottom 3 instead of 1.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
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Until Detroit lands 1-2 elite players, they're finishing in the bottom half of the league, with no chance at another Cup.

To me, whether they're 16th, 24th, or 31st is irrelevant, in terms of quality of on-ice product, because I'm not watching them in any of those scenarios, until I see a rebuilding plan that makes at least SOME sense.

So get bad. Fast. And it's not as hard as some might think. Trade Green and Nyquist, give the goalies close to equal starts, and keep Zetterberg under 18 minutes a night. That alone should result in a bottom-5 finish at minimum, with decent odds of bottom-3.

This team is going to be an overall bad product for at least a few more years, no matter what course of action they employ. But I'd rather use the one that maximizes my chances at landing the best prospects available to eventually not just right the ship, but try to get back to being one of the better teams in the league.
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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Until Detroit lands 1-2 elite players, they're finishing in the bottom half of the league, with no chance at another Cup.

To me, whether they're 16th, 24th, or 31st is irrelevant, in terms of quality of on-ice product, because I'm not watching them in any of those scenarios, until I see a rebuilding plan that makes at least SOME sense.

So get bad. Fast. And it's not as hard as some might think. Trade Green and Nyquist, give the goalies close to equal starts, and keep Zetterberg under 18 minutes a night. That alone should result in a bottom-5 finish at minimum, with decent odds of bottom-3.

This team is going to be an overall bad product for at least a few more years, no matter what course of action they employ. But I'd rather use the one that maximizes my chances at landing the best prospects available to eventually not just right the ship, but try to get back to being one of the better teams in the league.
Team probably improves by giving Z less minutes. Imo Larkin is our #1C and Nielsen can handle the #2C at a similar level as Z is this year (maybe better defensively). Trading Green is interesting, I'm not sure at all it's going to make us much worse. Green is skilled but he's so risky. By playing a "safer" d-man we might play a bit tighter, we'd be less fun to watch but results could be similar. Nyquist's efforts could be replaced by Bertuzzi or maybe Svechnikov if he gets it going. Giving goaltenders more equal starts is also just as likely to get Mrazek into a groove as it is to tank our team.
 

Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
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I wouldn't attempt to become worse than them unless I knew we could then throw a bag of money at the best coach in the world who can fast-track a return to good habits and work ethic again. Otherwise the increase in draft lottery odds is far from worth the risk that we'd spend 5 years in the bottom 3 instead of 1.
Too much is made about "culture." How long did it take for Pittsburgh or Chicago to get a "winning culture" after they got their players? Not long. And the coaches didn't even seem to matter. Finals with Therrien, Cup with Bylsma who was later fired, another cup with Sullivan. None of those coaches are talked about in the same category of even Mike Babcock, and yet.... It really looks like a good team is its own culture and that the coach isn't really *that* important.

And I don't see why tanking would *increase* the time we spend at the bottom. You think we stand to only spend 1 year at the bottom unless we tank? I think it's far more likely we tread this water and stay down here for a good long while. Especially as soon as Z retires? He's still a huge part of this team and when he's gone this team will bottom out. Green and Daley are the least dim spots on a defensive group without any bright spots and they're not here for much longer either. This idea that if we didn't tank we could claw our way back up into contention is hilarious to me. This team's trend is down, not up. And the only way to change that is with elite talent, which we are absolutely not likely to find from picks 10-31.
 
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Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
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Too much is made about "culture." How long did it take for Pittsburgh or Chicago to get a "winning culture" after they got their players? Not long. And the coaches didn't even seem to matter. Finals with Therrien, Cup with Bylsma who was later fired, another cup with Sullivan. None of those coaches are talked about in the same category of even Mike Babcock, and yet.... It really looks like a good team is its own culture and that the coach isn't really *that* important.
I find it dangerous to look at Chicago and Pittsburgh as examples to replicate. Chicago added Scotty Bowman and Quenneville, got lucky/good with Keith at the same time as they landed Toews and Kane at the top of the draft along with Seabrook. Pittsburgh got super-extra-mega lucky with the lottery/lockout in order to add both Crosby and Malkin along with Fleury and Staal, and also managed to snag a #1D later in the draft. There was also a coaching change involved in their turnaround, with Therrien obviously being a fairly competent coach compared to Olzcyk.

Like it or not, it's hard to on purpose do what other teams managed with healthy doses of luck and timing.
 

Redder Winger

Registered User
May 4, 2017
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I find it dangerous to look at Chicago and Pittsburgh as examples to replicate. Chicago added Scotty Bowman and Quenneville, got lucky/good with Keith at the same time as they landed Toews and Kane at the top of the draft along with Seabrook. Pittsburgh got super-extra-mega lucky with the lottery/lockout in order to add both Crosby and Malkin along with Fleury and Staal, and also managed to snag a #1D later in the draft. There was also a coaching change involved in their turnaround, with Therrien obviously being a fairly competent coach compared to Olzcyk.

Like it or not, it's hard to on purpose do what other teams managed with healthy doses of luck and timing.

Understood.
But who do you try to replicate?

Where's the team that went two years out of the playoffs after a long playoff run, and returned to cup contender status?
 

SpookyTsuki

Registered User
Dec 3, 2014
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Understood.
But who do you try to replicate?

Where's the team that went two years out of the playoffs after a long playoff run, and returned to cup contender status?

Don’t try to replicate anyone. Do your own thing.

But if i had to choose. LA/Boston. It also fits Detroits style in all sports. Chicago is good but I feel like they got lucky with cap and pretty much everything.
 

Redder Winger

Registered User
May 4, 2017
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Don’t try to replicate anyone. Do your own thing.

But if i had to choose. LA/Boston. It also fits Detroits style in all sports. Chicago is good but I feel like they got lucky with cap and pretty much everything.

Boston is a decent example.
But they got Zdeno Chara in UFA. When was the last time you saw a Norris trophy caliber D hit free agency? They also hit jackpot with an unheralded UFA goalie.
They also drafted Kessel with a lottery pick and traded him away for Seguin.

Los Angeles had 6 straight years picking 11th or better including 3 straight in the top 5.

The Rangers just had their second top 10 pick since Montoya in 04. (McIlrath was the other). A lot of their success is due to Lundqvist, obviously.
 

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