Red Wings between now and New Years.

[Redder Winger]

The Detroit Red Wings are two points behind the Rangers for the last wildcard spot.
They're also a point behind Pittsburgh, though the WIngs have a game in hand. And Carolina and Ottawa are two points back of Detroit with each team having two games in hand. In the Atlantic Detroit is tied with Boston, but Boston has one more ROW and two games in hand.
So here's our scheduled from now to New Years Day.
Vs NJD
Vs LAK
Vs MON
@ MON
Vs WIN
Vs STL
Vs FLA
Vs BOS
Vs TOR
@ NYI
@ PHI
@ BOS
@ NJD
Vs NYR
Vs PIT

IMO, even with all those home games, this is the going to be the stretch of the season where the Wings get a real look in the mirror.

So far Detroit is 0-3-3 against Eastern Conference playoff teams.
There are 6 games against Eastern Conference playoff teams.
Additionally, the home-and-home is a chance to put away the Habs or to let the Habs catch them.
I could see the Wings easily bombing out at 5-7-3, even with those home games.

And if the Wings do that they could be in the bottom three in the East by Jan. 1.

That could be good news, if you're looking for that Dahlin lottery ticket.

Click to read more...

 

[HIFE]

Interesting, I hadn't looked that far ahead. 5-7-3 sounds reasonable. I think the Wings' speed and (normally healthy) effort can give anybody trouble (not saying that equates to wins). I agree the Montreal games are very important for both clubs. December is make-or-break for a lot of the NHL. Florida and Edmonton have 18 points but are they really out of the race? Holland is right on that one: with such extreme parity the previous Thanksgiving cut-off has moved ahead a few weeks if not more.

 

[jkutswings]

Holland is right on that one: with such extreme parity the previous Thanksgiving cut-off has moved ahead a few weeks if not more.

I just wish more people realized that parity is a phenomenon that is essentially confined to the regular season. Cinderella may dance more often in hockey than basketball or football, but she's a first round exit like 90 percent of the time.

 

[Marky9er]

4-9-2 feels optimistic to me. If I'm wrong, we're going to be buyers and first round fodder.

 

[Ezekial]

I just wish more people realized that parity is a phenomenon that is essentially confined to the regular season. Cinderella may dance more often in hockey than basketball or football, but she's a first round exit like 90 percent of the time.

Yup, Ottawa and Nashville entered the playoffs as easy cup favorites last season.

They were playing great hockey at the right time.

 

[jkutswings]

Yup, Ottawa and Nashville entered the playoffs as easy cup favorites last season.

They were playing great hockey at the right time.

Citing the exception to the rule doesn't override the statistics. And I don't recall either of those teams coming away with the whole enchilada. Pittsburgh was second only to Washington for best record in the league, so one of the better teams won yet again.

Flashes in the pan happen here and there, but the last time low seeds won the Cup was when LA and Pittsburgh each had a slew of injuries and coaching gaffes, respectively, and regained their expected form toward the end of the season. A Nashville or Ottawa dark horse is usually more a blip on the radar than any semblance of real parity.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I will be very angry if they are buyers.

They need to be sellers.

 

[Reddwit]

The Detroit Red Wings are two points behind the Rangers for the last wildcard spot.
They're also a point behind Pittsburgh, though the WIngs have a game in hand. And Carolina and Ottawa are two points back of Detroit with each team having two games in hand. In the Atlantic Detroit is tied with Boston, but Boston has one more ROW and two games in hand.
So here's our scheduled from now to New Years Day.
Vs NJD
Vs LAK
Vs MON
@ MON
Vs WIN
Vs STL
Vs FLA
Vs BOS
Vs TOR
@ NYI
@ PHI
@ BOS
@ NJD
Vs NYR
Vs PIT

IMO, even with all those home games, this is the going to be the stretch of the season where the Wings get a real look in the mirror.

So far Detroit is 0-3-3 against Eastern Conference playoff teams.
There are 6 games against Eastern Conference playoff teams.
Additionally, the home-and-home is a chance to put away the Habs or to let the Habs catch them.
I could see the Wings easily bombing out at 5-7-3, even with those home games.

And if the Wings do that they could be in the bottom three in the East by Jan. 1.

That could be good news, if you're looking for that Dahlin lottery ticket.

This was coming. We’ve had a pretty easy schedule so far. This upcoming bit is a challenge. Montreal and Florida are arguably the weakest teams and they both give us fits.

 

[Reddwit]

I will be very angry if they are buyers.

They need to be sellers.

Green should have a lot of sway in whether we’re sellers or buyers if were in any sort of grey area. I remember some radio station did an interview with Green right after he signed in Detroit and they were teasing him for signing with us and he was basically like “lol yeah but it’s not that bad.” And we’ve basically been a joke of a team since he’s been here. So I can’t imagine he’s willing to re-sign and I can’t imagine there won’t be teams banging down Detroit’s door with trade offers if he keeps up anything more than 60% of his 58 point pace right now.

If Holland keeps him and we’re a first round exit or don’t make it after the deadline, and Green walks, Holland has his resignation letter signed for him. Can’t validate losing your “best defenseman” (quotations emphasized) after being a playoff non-factor 2 years in a row when your defense is already a candidate for bottom 5 as it is.

 

[Winger98]

I will be very angry if they are buyers.

They need to be sellers.

oh, this is going to be fun to watch.

 

[Claypool]

I'm relieved. There hasn't been any negative threads for awhile on this forum. Thanks for making the weekly quota.

I love that the Red Wings aren't bottoming out like many here hoped they would. I hope the Red Wings keep winning. The rest can keep playing the draft lottery simulator.

 

[Reddwit]

I'm relieved. There hasn't been any negative threads for awhile on this forum. Thanks for making the weekly quota.

I love that the Red Wings aren't bottoming out like many here hoped they would. I hope the Red Wings keep winning. The rest can keep playing the draft lottery simulator.

Dude, why comment only to be salty and condescending in the process?

And what do you mean by “keep winning?” The Wings have won 10 out of 24 games and lost their last, what...3? 4? Right now the only factual thing they can keep doing is gathering loser points and belonging to the league’s weakest division.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm relieved. There hasn't been any negative threads for awhile on this forum. Thanks for making the weekly quota.

I love that the Red Wings aren't bottoming out like many here hoped they would. I hope the Red Wings keep winning. The rest can keep playing the draft lottery simulator.

If you like things taking even longer to amount to a contender, sure. But I'd rather risk a failed rebuild in the name of speeding up the process, than risk a failed rebuild and take 5-10 extra years to reach that conclusion.

 

[Claypool]

If you like things taking even longer to amount to a contender, sure. But I'd rather risk a failed rebuild in the name of speeding up the process, than risk a failed rebuild and take 5-10 extra years to reach that conclusion.

This organization is never going to tank. The current management group has already stated as such repeatedly. So I'm not sure what to tell you. Here's hoping to a Red Wings win on Tuesday against LA.

 

[TheOtherOne]

If you like things taking even longer to amount to a contender, sure. But I'd rather risk a failed rebuild in the name of speeding up the process, than risk a failed rebuild and take 5-10 extra years to reach that conclusion.

What i don't get is why you are so sure you know how long things will take. We could tank and Dahlin could win us a Cup in 5 years. Or we could tank and miss Dahlin and end up mediocre again and forced to tank again. Or we could get Dahlin and he could bust. Or we could stay the course and win the lottery. Or we could stay the course and some nobody could become the next Lidstrom.

There is so much uncertainty in this league that the only thing that makes sense to me is cheering for a win every game and just holding on until good things happen.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Green should have a lot of sway in whether we’re sellers or buyers if were in any sort of grey area. I remember some radio station did an interview with Green right after he signed in Detroit and they were teasing him for signing with us and he was basically like “lol yeah but it’s not that bad.” And we’ve basically been a joke of a team since he’s been here. So I can’t imagine he’s willing to re-sign and I can’t imagine there won’t be teams banging down Detroit’s door with trade offers if he keeps up anything more than 60% of his 58 point pace right now.

If Holland keeps him and we’re a first round exit or don’t make it after the deadline, and Green walks, Holland has his resignation letter signed for him. Can’t validate losing your “best defenseman” (quotations emphasized) after being a playoff non-factor 2 years in a row when your defense is already a candidate for bottom 5 as it is.

I don’t recall him talking about the team. I do know he pretty much said It about the city, the guys were acting like Detroit is the worst city of all time and hes like. Not the suburbs no comments after that lol

 

[Redder Winger]

What i don't get is why you are so sure you know how long things will take. We could tank and Dahlin could win us a Cup in 5 years. Or we could tank and miss Dahlin and end up mediocre again and forced to tank again. Or we could get Dahlin and he could bust. Or we could stay the course and win the lottery. Or we could stay the course and some nobody could become the next Lidstrom.

There is so much uncertainty in this league that the only thing that makes sense to me is cheering for a win every game and just holding on until good things happen.

Or you could tank and get Dahlin, and he becomes a Norris contender, but you still don't contend.

That said, this team needs stars. Elite, world-class talent.

The best way to get that talent is high in the draft.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

What i don't get is why you are so sure you know how long things will take. We could tank and Dahlin could win us a Cup in 5 years. Or we could tank and miss Dahlin and end up mediocre again and forced to tank again. Or we could get Dahlin and he could bust. Or we could stay the course and win the lottery. Or we could stay the course and some nobody could become the next Lidstrom.

There is so much uncertainty in this league that the only thing that makes sense to me is cheering for a win every game and just holding on until good things happen.

Your argument is basically "The odds of tanking working are so low that it doesn't make sense."

That's fine, but the odds of the Wings current strategy succeeding is even lower than traditional tanking. Even with the new changes to the draft lottery.

What the Wings are doing has failed and will continue to fail. AKA spend your way out of the lottery, but not enough to ice a good team.

The Wings are in purgatory and you don't get out of purgatory by continuing to chase mediocrity.

 

[jkutswings]

What i don't get is why you are so sure you know how long things will take. We could tank and Dahlin could win us a Cup in 5 years. Or we could tank and miss Dahlin and end up mediocre again and forced to tank again. Or we could get Dahlin and he could bust. Or we could stay the course and win the lottery. Or we could stay the course and some nobody could become the next Lidstrom.

There is so much uncertainty in this league that the only thing that makes sense to me is cheering for a win every game and just holding on until good things happen.

Nothing is a certainty. But some approaches have better mathematical odds. That horse has been beaten to death up and down these forums, so I'm not sure why people continue to refute it.

And "just holding on until good things happen" can be for fans of The Cleveland Browns or <insert historically awful franchise here>. After 5 years of clearly needing to rebuild, this team is still nowhere close to making noise in the playoffs again, and I'd like a little more accountability with my entertainment.

Even the best plan is far from a sure thing to execute successfully. But when the plan itself is shaky enough that it borders on being fatally flawed from the start? I'll pass.

In yet another five years, this team will still be mediocre, and there will somehow still be fans asking for patience.

 

[Flowah]

Your argument is basically "The odds of tanking working are so low that it doesn't make sense."

That's fine, but the odds of the Wings current strategy succeeding is even lower than traditional tanking. Even with the new changes to the draft lottery.

What the Wings are doing has failed and will continue to fail. AKA spend your way out of the lottery, but not enough to ice a good team.

The Wings are in purgatory and you don't get out of purgatory by continuing to chase mediocrity.

But at least if we're not tanking we can watch some real quality hockey from the Wings!

Oh wait.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I will be very angry if they are buyers.

They need to be sellers.

Probably very little chance they end up buyers.

The silver lining to their cap situation is that unless a decent chunk of salary ends up on LTIR (in addition to Franzen) as the deadline nears and/or they find a way to unload a decent chunk of salary, they basically only have enough space to add a player making under $950k or as high as around $1.9M if the other team retains salary.

The more realistic worrisome scenario would be if they're just behind or barely hanging onto a WC spot, but with pieces that could be moved Holland decides to stay the course (IE 2013 and 2016).

 

[TheMule93]

if we are miraculously in a playoff spot at the TDL we need to move on from Green regardless. I would say look at what Shattenkirk and Yandle hauled in.

- The Rangers acquired defenseman Keith Yandle, defenseman Chris Summers and a fourth-round pick in 2016 in exchange for defenseman John Moore, top prospect Anthony Duclair, a lottery-protected first-round draft pick in 2016 and a second-round pick in 2015. The Coyotes also are retaining 50 percent of Yandle's salary in the deal.

- The Blues get forward Zach Sanford, a 2017 first-round draft pick, and a conditional future second-round pick for Kevin Shattenkirk

So we're looking at a first, second,+ here

 

[TatarTangle]

If the Red Wings are close to a spot in the playoffs I expect Holland to do everything possible at the deadline to ensure they make it, seeing as his contract is up.

 

[Dotter]

If you like things taking even longer to amount to a contender, sure. But I'd rather risk a failed rebuild in the name of speeding up the process, than risk a failed rebuild and take 5-10 extra years to reach that conclusion.

Looks like there's 2 groups of fans. One that wants full tank rebuild even if it fails. One that wants to rebuild without burning it all down. I'm in the latter group. The data proves naturally rebuilds are more prominent than burning it down. Plus I think there's more of a sense of pride with rebuilding naturally. Oilers are still stuck in oblivion, TMLs haven't proven anything and their core will sooner than later get ungodly raises while still missing important pieces to be contenders.

Pittsburg and Chicago were naturally bad til they finally got the right pieces. Both teams have won the cup. I think the hockey gods punish the teams who try to fast-track the system. It has to be natural.

 

[jkutswings]

Looks like there's 2 groups of fans. One that wants full tank rebuild even if it fails. One that wants to rebuild without burning it all down. I'm in the latter group. The data proves naturally rebuilds are more prominent than burning it down.

What's more popular is very different from what's more effective.

Plus I think there's more of a sense of pride with rebuilding naturally.

If you can look at the current roster, and how they got where they are, and feel a sense of anything vaguely resembling pride...more power to you. But I'm far more frustrated and even ashamed of the path they took, than had they just fully embraced a rebuild. It's been a giant waste of time for at least 3 years now, and nothing is changing anytime soon.

Oilers are still stuck in oblivion, TMLs haven't proven anything and their core will sooner than later get ungodly raises while still missing important pieces to be contenders.

Pittsburg and Chicago were naturally bad til they finally got the right pieces. Both teams have won the cup. I think the hockey gods punish the teams who try to fast-track the system. It has to be natural.

Let me put this another way, then:

When it comes to THIS front office, being able to use THIS strategy, and execute it even successfully enough to routinely get past the first round...

...I don't think they could pour Kool-Aid out of a boot, if there were instructions on the heel.

A significant factor for why I want the #1 pick overall is that I don't ever see the current regime identifying and developing even one elite player via any draft stock that isn't as foolproof as possible. They've lost too many good people, and gotten too complacent/loyal/"safe", to get it done.