Rebuild continues to go well for Winnipeg Jets

[HF Article]

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The Winnipeg Jets continue to rebuild their prospect pool, led by Mark Scheifele and Jacob Trouba. In the past two entry drafts, Jets' General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has started to realize a vision of a bigger, tougher, and grittier team. While the rebuild started with the 2011 Draft, solid progress is already being made. Below is a breakdown of all current prospects of the Winnipeg Jets.



Left Wing

Ivan Telegin and Carl Klingberg will be counted on to continue their development and contribute at the NHL level within the next two seasons. They are chased by a handful of prospects in what is the deepest forward position for the Jets.… read more



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[CorgisPer60]

Just a mention that Cisse left his NCAA program and is playing for the Armada in the QMJHL now.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Good article. One thing though, Mike Forney and John Albert are not Winnipeg Jets property. Forney is signed independently to the Colorado Eagles after failing to get a QO last year from the Jets and John Albert finished his 4 years in college and became a FA last year and has been signed independently with the St. John IceCaps.

 

[truck]

Zach Yuen's +/- doesn't tell us much of anything...

Yes, he is -9 but that is a reflection of his team as much as anything. Yuen is playing tough minutes vs top lines and he team has a +5 goal differential. Last year's squad was +91 and four players that were +40 or better.

 

[Hobble]

I thought Machacek made a pretty good impression in the NHL with his short stint at the end of last season.

 

[truck]

I thought Machacek made a pretty good impression in the NHL with his short stint at the end of last season.

He did enough for a look and earned himself a 1-way deal.

I don't see him as anything more than a low line grinder though.

 

[sipowicz]

He did enough for a look and earned himself a 1-way deal.

I don't see him as anything more than a low line grinder though.

Have to agree, his struggle in St. Johns is a bit troubling, really thought we had a legitimate guy to take Tanner Glass's spot but not sure now.

Klingberg hasn't impressed me either as a call-up with the Jets or in St. Johns.

Just hoping someone else in St. Johns can step up. Right now the talent level at the forward position is pretty slim there.

 

[Guardian17]

I like the Jets slow and steady approach.

However, the 2013 Draft, with six picks in the Top 90, will be extremely important to the franchise moving forward.

 

[truck]

I like the Jets slow and steady approach.

However, the 2013 Draft, with six picks in the Top 90, will be extremely important to the franchise moving forward.

Yep. If they can net 3 (or more) full time NHLers in that top 6 it will be a big win.

 

[scelaton]

Yep. If they can net 3 (or more) full time NHLers in that top 6 it will be a big win.

See below. Statistically, it looks like we'd be fortunate to get 2 bona fide NHLers out of our first 6 in the upcoming draft.
As others have pointed out, the success rate of draft picks is much lower than many assume it to be.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/prospects/f/draft_success.htm

Based on the 1990s sample, a first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of being a career player.

Results can vary widely from year to year:
The 1993 NHL Draft produced 22 career players from 26 first-round picks.
In 1999, less than half of the first-round selections went on to become career players (12 out of 28).

Beyond the first round.

This is where the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:
From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round turned into NHL career players.

Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it.
From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.

 

[truck]

See below. Statistically, it looks like we'd be fortunate to get 2 bona fide NHLers out of our first 6 in the upcoming draft.
As others have pointed out, the success rate of draft picks is much lower than many assume it to be.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/prospects/f/draft_success.htm

Based on the 1990s sample, a first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of being a career player.

Results can vary widely from year to year:
The 1993 NHL Draft produced 22 career players from 26 first-round picks.
In 1999, less than half of the first-round selections went on to become career players (12 out of 28).

Beyond the first round.

This is where the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:
From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round turned into NHL career players.

Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it.
From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.

For sure. We would be fortunate to nab 3, but that is the fortune I want.

 

[Jeti]

It's a feel-good article but I don't get my hopes up yet for this team. Two years of the Jets drafting and developing doesn't replace the inconsistency of the old Thrashers.

I like the Jets slow and steady approach.

However, the 2013 Draft, with six picks in the Top 90, will be extremely important to the franchise moving forward.

Can't wait for the 2013 draft, assuming the lockout is done by then. For all the analysis in preceding posts about how many NHLers you get out of each round one must remember that the actual realized number is highly variable year-to-year, round-to-round and team-to-team. Thus, it's all the more crucial for the teams future for their scouting staff to have a good year (and a lot of luck). Those 6 picks in the top 90 could be 6 future core players that take us to the cup and they could just as easily be 6 busts that mark 2013 as a shameful year remembered by Jets fans.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

It's a feel-good article but I don't get my hopes up yet for this team. Two years of the Jets drafting and developing doesn't replace the inconsistency of the old Thrashers.

Yet how do we know that the Jets drafting and developing is any better? We have yet to see ANY results from the past two drafts to confirm this. For all we know, the our much lauded Jets drafting and developing may be worse than ATL's. I know this is kind of your point, just thought I'd point it out though. For all the talk about Scheifele, Trouba, Sutter, Lowry, Yuen, etc, we have nothing to show for it.

Now obviously you wouldn't expect there to be results yet, but it's impossible to say right if the Jets have legimately improved their developing or drafting versus ATL, is all I am saying.

 

[truck]

It's a feel-good article but I don't get my hopes up yet for this team. Two years of the Jets drafting and developing doesn't replace the inconsistency of the old Thrashers.


Can't wait for the 2013 draft, assuming the lockout is done by then. For all the analysis in preceding posts about how many NHLers you get out of each round one must remember that the actual realized number is highly variable year-to-year, round-to-round and team-to-team. Thus, it's all the more crucial for the teams future for their scouting staff to have a good year (and a lot of luck). Those 6 picks in the top 90 could be 6 future core players that take us to the cup and they could just as easily be 6 busts that mark 2013 as a shameful year remembered by Jets fans.

It was really the 2004-2007 drafts that were the problem for Atlanta. They had decent years both before and after that.

The 4 drafts from 2004-07 netted Little, Pavelec and Machacek. That's it. That sucks!!

EDIT

Forgot Postma. Still sucks.

 

[truck]

Yet how do we know that the Jets drafting and developing is any better? We have yet to see ANY results from the past two drafts to confirm this. For all we know, the our much lauded Jets drafting and developing may be worse than ATL's. I know this is kind of your point, just thought I'd point it out though. For all the talk about Scheifele, Trouba, Sutter, Lowry, Yuen, etc, we have nothing to show for it.

Now obviously you wouldn't expect there to be results yet, but it's impossible to say right if the Jets have legimately improved their developing or drafting versus ATL, is all I am saying.

I was thinking the same thing.

While I like the slow and steady approach to development, I want to see some results.

 

[Jeti]

Yet how do we know that the Jets drafting and developing is any better? We have yet to see ANY results from the past two drafts to confirm this. For all we know, the our much lauded Jets drafting and developing may be worse than ATL's. I know this is kind of your point, just thought I'd point it out though. For all the talk about Scheifele, Trouba, Sutter, Lowry, Yuen, etc, we have nothing to show for it.

Now obviously you wouldn't expect there to be results yet, but it's impossible to say right if the Jets have legimately improved their developing or drafting versus ATL, is all I am saying.

I threw developing in to that statement just for a failsafe. You're right, we can't say that the Jets are better or even necessarily as good as the Thrashers at drafting, not yet. I think the development speaks for itself though. Even in their recent good years drafting Bogosian, Kane and Burmistrov, they still rushed them in to the league. The fact Scheifele wasn't rushed in to the league last year is evidence enough for me that the Jets have a better idea about development than the Thrashers did.

It was really the 2004-2007 drafts that were the problem for Atlanta. They had decent years both before and after that.

The 4 drafts from 2004-07 netted Little, Pavelec and Machacek. That's it. That sucks!!

EDIT

Forgot Postma. Still sucks.

Agreed. The delay between drafting and full contribution is often underestimated (likely due to guys like Toews, Crosby, etc that stepped right in and won cups). The Jets lack depth, pretty much across the board, because of what the Thrashers did in terms of drafting 5-8 years ago, not who they drafted in the last couple years of their existence. That's pretty much what I was getting at that it'll take a lot more than 2 drafts for the Jets to build this team if they're to outdo the Thrashers.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I threw developing in to that statement just for a failsafe. You're right, we can't say that the Jets are better or even necessarily as good as the Thrashers at drafting, not yet. I think the development speaks for itself though. Even in their recent good years drafting Bogosian, Kane and Burmistrov, they still rushed them in to the league. The fact Scheifele wasn't rushed in to the league last year is evidence enough for me that the Jets have a better idea about development than the Thrashers did.

Not every player is the same. Many players have success from stepping in immediately. Jumping straight into the NHL didn't set Doughty back, Bogosian was drafted right after him. I dislike this mentality that Scheifele NEEDED to have 2 years in OHL + 1 year in AHL. If a player has proven he belongs at the NHL level, he deserves to be there. Sending back a ready player can be just as bad a set back as keeping a player up too early. There is no formula for proper development.

 

[Bob E]

Not every player is the same. Many players have success from stepping in immediately. Jumping straight into the NHL didn't set Doughty back, Bogosian was drafted right after him. I dislike this mentality that Scheifele NEEDED to have 2 years in OHL + 1 year in AHL. If a player has proven he belongs at the NHL level, he deserves to be there. Sending back a ready player can be just as bad a set back as keeping a player up too early. There is no formula for proper development.

True, but what Jets management is showing me is they won't give a player a spot - based on his draft position. That establishes a culture of competition to earn a spot, and only the best players (or ready - if they are a prospect) will be with the NHL club. That it is good hockey atmosphere that should get results.

Now, you are completely right that the drafts so far have provided little in terms of NHL impact at the moment. But that's fine, imo. With better, more proven players, with the NHL club, prospects have to continue to work hard to make the next level. Some will develop, others won't, but they will have to earn it. I like that.

It's better than Kane and Burmi making the team and contributing very little their first year (and 2nd).

 

[truck]

Not every player is the same. Many players have success from stepping in immediately. Jumping straight into the NHL didn't set Doughty back, Bogosian was drafted right after him. I dislike this mentality that Scheifele NEEDED to have 2 years in OHL + 1 year in AHL. If a player has proven he belongs at the NHL level, he deserves to be there. Sending back a ready player can be just as bad a set back as keeping a player up too early. There is no formula for proper development.

I have never been married to a specific time line for Scheifele, but I always figured he was a couple years away from NHL ready.

He still looks like a player that time will help IMO. He is cerebral and hard working, but I'm not sure he is where he needs to be physically.

He is bigger and stronger, but I don't think he is big enough or strong enough to play his game in the NHL.
Could be wrong.

 

[surixon]

I have never been married to a specific time line for Scheifele, but I always figured he was a couple years away from NHL ready.

He still looks like a player that time will help IMO. He is cerebral and hard working, but I'm not sure he is where he needs to be physically.

He is bigger and stronger, but I don't think he is big enough or strong enough to play his game in the NHL.
Could be wrong.

I think he could contribute at the NHL level atm, but it would be in a specialized role lots of pp and high offensive zone starts against weak opposition.

I think he needs one more summer of filling out before he will be able to handle a two way role on the team against average opposition. Not worried with his development he is on track or ahead of the curve in most categories.

I'm also pretty happy with the development of our amateur players as a whole both in the CHL and NCAA. I am however pretty concerned with our crop of players on the rock, Imo only a few look like they will be NHL players at the moment and most only in depth roles.

 

[truck]

I think he could contribute at the NHL level atm, but it would be in a specialized role lots of pp and high offensive zone starts against weak opposition.

I think he needs one more summer of filling out before he will be able to handle a two way role on the team against average opposition. Not worried with his development he is on track or ahead of the curve in most categories.

I'm also pretty happy with the development of our amateur players as a whole both in the CHL and NCAA. I am however pretty concerned with our crop of players on the rock, Imo only a few look like they will be NHL players at the moment and most only in depth roles.

Atlanta put all of their high end prospects in the big leagues, that is why the rock is so empty.

Postma, Redmond, Telegin are the Jets only AHLers that look like possible (albeit unlikely) difference makers to me.

Klingberg and Cormier look like they could be solid depth players. If anyone else outside of them and Machacek makes it, I'd be pleasantly surprised.

Looking at you O'Dell & Melchiori.


EDIT

Also, Pasquale.

 

[PhilJets]

If we can net McKinnon, barkov or monahan, and a solid top 4 defenseman with one of the other 5 picks! Jets are on their way


Kane McKinnon/ barkov. Wheeler
Ladd schiefele little
Lowry burmistrov telegin
Machachek Cormier kosmachuk
Sutter

Enstrom byfuglien
Xxxx bogosian
Postma Trouba
Redmond

 

[allan5oh]

Just to be clear theyre doing a prospect pool rebuild not a full on Columbus style rebuild. Imo there is a difference.

 

[truck]

Just to be clear theyre doing a prospect pool rebuild not a full on Columbus style rebuild. Imo there is a difference.

I don't think CBJ is that far behind where our Jets were last year.

Comparable core players:

Dubinsky / Ladd
Anisimov / Little
Atkinson / Burmi
Johansen / Kane
Prospal / Antropov

Bob the Goalie / Pav

The CBJ also have ridiculous defensive depth...

If Foligno or Brassard can break out along the lines of what Wheeler did, these guys won't be that far off.


I would rather have our core group, but I don't the the CBJ are going to be that bad going forward.

 

[Grind]

I don't think CBJ is that far behind where our Jets were last year.

Comparable core players:

Dubinsky / Ladd
Anisimov / Little
Atkinson / Burmi
Johansen / Kane
Prospal / Antropov

Bob the Goalie / Pav

The CBJ also have ridiculous defensive depth...

If Foligno or Brassard can break out along the lines of what Wheeler did, these guys won't be that far off.


I would rather have our core group, but I don't the the CBJ are going to be that bad going forward.

not to get off topic here but i very much agree. add in the jackets extraordinarily underrated blueline talent and I'd be surprised ( i won't quite say shocked) to see them finish bottom 5 this year....now that's not exactly glowing praise, but i'm one of the few that does see their team as better this year then last year, even with the loss of Nash.

As for our own prospect depth, it really is waay to early to claim that we've made any improvements what so ever besides avoiding the possible(not even garaunteed) scenario of putting Schiefele in the league last year and him only getting 20-25 points in sheltered minutes.