Salary Cap: Real dollars impact of the Phaneuf Trade
- Thread starter SouthWalesSens
- Start date
Sun God Nika
Palestine <3.
- Apr 22, 2013
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You aren't including his signing bonuses whcih are all but guaranteed to get paid.
ACTUAL PAYABLE SALARY
Year .. Salary .. Regression Status(my opinion)
16/17: 7, 500, 000 (solidifies line up)
17/18: 7, 000, 000 (solidifies line up)
18/19: 6, 500, 000 (serviceable)
19/20: 6, 500, 000 (burden year)
20/21: 5, 500, 000 (burden year)
ACTUAL PAYABLE SALARY
Year .. Salary .. Regression Status(my opinion)
16/17: 7, 500, 000 (solidifies line up)
17/18: 7, 000, 000 (solidifies line up)
18/19: 6, 500, 000 (serviceable)
19/20: 6, 500, 000 (burden year)
20/21: 5, 500, 000 (burden year)
Last edited:
SouthWalesSens
Registered User
Sun God Nika
Palestine <3.
- Apr 22, 2013
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I may be wrong but I am pretty sure signing bonuses are paid upfront but are included in the total salary amount
BonkTastic
ಠ_ಠ
Looking at the actual $'s of the trade with the assumption that Leafs are paying Frattin.
Sens save $6.5m+ USD from now til the end of 16/17 (as Sens never would have bought out Cowen or Greening)
Key point is USD. They're hoping the CDN$ recovers by 17/18. From 17/18 to 20/21 they are assuming a $25.5m obligation and the currency gain will cover a portion of that cost.
Sens are a budget team and this helps to sign Hoffman & Ceci this summer. Phaneuf's cap hit isn't an issue cause they won't be spending to the cap anyways.
A D of Phaneufs calibre would cost them $4m+ anyways. $19m net obligation over 5 years is equivalent to signing an older UFA D to fill this role in the offseason. If Sens make the playoffs and get extra revenue it's an added bonus.
Sens save $6.5m+ USD from now til the end of 16/17 (as Sens never would have bought out Cowen or Greening)
Key point is USD. They're hoping the CDN$ recovers by 17/18. From 17/18 to 20/21 they are assuming a $25.5m obligation and the currency gain will cover a portion of that cost.
Sens are a budget team and this helps to sign Hoffman & Ceci this summer. Phaneuf's cap hit isn't an issue cause they won't be spending to the cap anyways.
A D of Phaneufs calibre would cost them $4m+ anyways. $19m net obligation over 5 years is equivalent to signing an older UFA D to fill this role in the offseason. If Sens make the playoffs and get extra revenue it's an added bonus.
Another key point with the $3 million salary in 20-21 (excluding bonuses), is that if they needed to buy him out in the 5th year of the deal, it would only cost the Sens 2/3 of $3 million, spread out two years. Buyouts do not include bonuses, already paid.
So a buyout in year 5 of the deal would be $1 million for two years. Very small amount as far as buyouts go, and less than Cowen/Greening combined.
So essentially Ottawa is hoping to get four more years out of a 30 year old. Very realistic for him to remain a Top 4 d-man. To give some point of reference, at 30 years old, Chris Phillips averaged 21:52 per game. At 34 years of age, he averaged 21:03 per game.
GREAT POINT above, about the Sens saving more than 6.5 million USD this year and next while the Canadian dollar is low. That's almost $10 million CDN and not to be forgotten. Hopefully that amount can help elsewhere.
By my calculations it's about $33 million to be paid in the remaining five years of his contract, or about $6.6 million in real dollars per year. So if Ottawa had waited until July 1st, what type of UFA D-man could they have attracted for $6.6 million. Consider that Mike Green got $6 million in Detroit last summer. But the questions is if their top targets would have even considered Ottawa.
No Phaneuf is not a $7 million (cap hit) dollar player. But he's probably close to the $6.0 range. So by stepping up another $600K, it should give them some much needed stability and certainty on the back end, hopefully for the next 4 years, as well as for this rest of this season.
It may not make a difference for this years playoffs. But I think come next years training camp, Sens fans will be glad to have his body in the lineup.
So a buyout in year 5 of the deal would be $1 million for two years. Very small amount as far as buyouts go, and less than Cowen/Greening combined.
So essentially Ottawa is hoping to get four more years out of a 30 year old. Very realistic for him to remain a Top 4 d-man. To give some point of reference, at 30 years old, Chris Phillips averaged 21:52 per game. At 34 years of age, he averaged 21:03 per game.
GREAT POINT above, about the Sens saving more than 6.5 million USD this year and next while the Canadian dollar is low. That's almost $10 million CDN and not to be forgotten. Hopefully that amount can help elsewhere.
By my calculations it's about $33 million to be paid in the remaining five years of his contract, or about $6.6 million in real dollars per year. So if Ottawa had waited until July 1st, what type of UFA D-man could they have attracted for $6.6 million. Consider that Mike Green got $6 million in Detroit last summer. But the questions is if their top targets would have even considered Ottawa.
No Phaneuf is not a $7 million (cap hit) dollar player. But he's probably close to the $6.0 range. So by stepping up another $600K, it should give them some much needed stability and certainty on the back end, hopefully for the next 4 years, as well as for this rest of this season.
It may not make a difference for this years playoffs. But I think come next years training camp, Sens fans will be glad to have his body in the lineup.
BonkTastic
ಠ_ಠ
If we wanted to buy out Phaneuf for the last two years of his contract, here is the breakdown:
PHANEUF BUYOUT: June 15th, 2019
[table="head;width=500]SEASON|SALARY|CAP HIT|BUYOUT|SAVINGS|BUYOUT CAP HIT
2019/20|$5.5mil|$7mil|$1,416,667|$4,083,333|$2,916,667
2020/21|$3mil|$7mil|$1,416,667|$1,583,333|$5,416,667
2021/22|$0|$0|$1,416,667|-$1,416,667|$1,416,667
2022/23|$0|$0|$1,416,667|-$1,416,667|$1,416,667
[/TABLE]
KEEP IN MIND: We would still owe Phaneuf his $3.5mil in signing bonus money for those two seasons You can't "buy out" signing bonus money, it has to be paid in full, even in case of buyout. It is guaranteed money. So whatever actual money you see in that chart above, add another $3.5mil to it.
****Total cost in actual dollars to buy out Phaneuf's final two seasons: $9,166,668****
*EDIT*
I thought I'd provide the numbers for if we were to just buyout his last season.
PHANEUF BUYOUT: June 15th, 2020
[table="head;width=500]SEASON|SALARY|CAP HIT|BUYOUT|SAVINGS|BUYOUT CAP HIT
2020/21|$3mil|$7mil|$1mil|$2mil|$5mil
2021/22|$0|$0|$1mil|-$1mil|$1mil
[/TABLE]
... and then add his $2.5mil signing bonus on to that.
PHANEUF BUYOUT: June 15th, 2019
[table="head;width=500]SEASON|SALARY|CAP HIT|BUYOUT|SAVINGS|BUYOUT CAP HIT
2019/20|$5.5mil|$7mil|$1,416,667|$4,083,333|$2,916,667
2020/21|$3mil|$7mil|$1,416,667|$1,583,333|$5,416,667
2021/22|$0|$0|$1,416,667|-$1,416,667|$1,416,667
2022/23|$0|$0|$1,416,667|-$1,416,667|$1,416,667
[/TABLE]
KEEP IN MIND: We would still owe Phaneuf his $3.5mil in signing bonus money for those two seasons You can't "buy out" signing bonus money, it has to be paid in full, even in case of buyout. It is guaranteed money. So whatever actual money you see in that chart above, add another $3.5mil to it.
****Total cost in actual dollars to buy out Phaneuf's final two seasons: $9,166,668****
*EDIT*
I thought I'd provide the numbers for if we were to just buyout his last season.
PHANEUF BUYOUT: June 15th, 2020
[table="head;width=500]SEASON|SALARY|CAP HIT|BUYOUT|SAVINGS|BUYOUT CAP HIT
2020/21|$3mil|$7mil|$1mil|$2mil|$5mil
2021/22|$0|$0|$1mil|-$1mil|$1mil
[/TABLE]
... and then add his $2.5mil signing bonus on to that.
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Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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BonkTastic
ಠ_ಠ
No, all three seasons of Michalek's 3-year deal were all for $4mil each. There was no ascending/descending going on in his contract, it's a flat $4mil per each year.
Obviously the acquisition of Phaneuf is going to help us and solidify our Defensive group this year. If he sticks with Ceci that would hopefully be beneficial to Ceci's growth. He still has not had a solid consistant partner on his left side.
However, in my own opinion, I would prefer playing Dion with EK. I think EK is the best candidate to make him look good and maybe increase his value again and make him tradeable. Just look at how EK's last two consistant partner's have upped there value and got solid deals (Kuba, Methot). Maybe our goal should be to put him in the best situation to showcase himself. If we could unload him in the offseason for picks or for younger and cheaper pieces, we would be much better off moving forward and have a ton of cap space to spend wisely on multiple needs.
I find Murray has dropped the ball on a few extension signings because he got caught up in the short term results or gave the benefit of the doubt to the player when he shouldn't have. I.e Michalek re-signing at 4 million per after a bad year, and Wiercoch being rewarded for a half season, Phillips being extended when he shouldn't have, Greening after a decent playoff series etc..
I think it would be a mistake to get attached to Dion, when we should focus on upping his value for a trade and clear more cap space so we can sign players that make more sense longterm.
Just a thought
However, in my own opinion, I would prefer playing Dion with EK. I think EK is the best candidate to make him look good and maybe increase his value again and make him tradeable. Just look at how EK's last two consistant partner's have upped there value and got solid deals (Kuba, Methot). Maybe our goal should be to put him in the best situation to showcase himself. If we could unload him in the offseason for picks or for younger and cheaper pieces, we would be much better off moving forward and have a ton of cap space to spend wisely on multiple needs.
I find Murray has dropped the ball on a few extension signings because he got caught up in the short term results or gave the benefit of the doubt to the player when he shouldn't have. I.e Michalek re-signing at 4 million per after a bad year, and Wiercoch being rewarded for a half season, Phillips being extended when he shouldn't have, Greening after a decent playoff series etc..
I think it would be a mistake to get attached to Dion, when we should focus on upping his value for a trade and clear more cap space so we can sign players that make more sense longterm.
Just a thought
Back in Black
All Sports would be great if they were Hockey
What was the point in getting Dion if they're thinking of trading him? He cost the SENS long term money over the short term contracts he traded away.
trentmccleary
Registered User
Why wouldn't we keep him longer to solidify our defense for multiple seasons?
We just filled our biggest hole by far by acquiring Phaneuf. I'm not sure why we would even entertain the thought of re-opening that gaping wound right now.
Are you talking about unrestricted free agency?
aragorn
Do The Right Thing
- Aug 8, 2004
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Why wouldn't we keep him longer to solidify our defense for multiple seasons?
We just filled our biggest hole by far by acquiring Phaneuf. I'm not sure why we would even entertain the thought of re-opening that gaping wound right now.
Are you talking about unrestricted free agency?
Exactly who cares about the damn money if the guy is helping to make the team better, that's what's important. Ottawa has plenty of cap space & more coming next yr, I don't get the concern, there will be more than enough money for the players they want to re-sign IMO. I think there will be enough money to re-sign Ladd too if they decide to make a deal for him as well.
BonkTastic
ಠ_ಠ
The other way to look at it, is that the Senators acquired a Top 4 D-man for the next 4-5 years without giving up anything from their roster. (if you consider Cowen was in the press box, and Michalek was injured). Imagine if he acquired a bona fide top 6 forward who still had term, without giving up anything from the current roster. Think about that for a minute.
And while some seem hung up on the fact he has a 7.0 cap hit, since Ottawa isn't a cap team, it's really a non-issue. Truthfully, it wouldn't matter if he had a 9.0 cap hit, since Ottawa hasn't been that close to the cap in a very long time.
So I look at this trade as Ottawa adding something of value to their current roster, without giving up anything from their current roster, aside from futures.
And while some seem hung up on the fact he has a 7.0 cap hit, since Ottawa isn't a cap team, it's really a non-issue. Truthfully, it wouldn't matter if he had a 9.0 cap hit, since Ottawa hasn't been that close to the cap in a very long time.
So I look at this trade as Ottawa adding something of value to their current roster, without giving up anything from their current roster, aside from futures.
StefanW
Registered User
The key to the deal is adding the top 4 D we needed for the past 3 seasons now while somehow managing to offload several bad contracts. We will save money the next two years by virtue of the fact that we are no longer paying for those bad contracts. The Phaneuf trade looks worse after two years because we would have been freed of those other deals at that point, but we would have had to spend that cash on a D anyway so it is not as bleak as some people make it out to be.
Phaneuf is now in the cost structure of the team moving forward for the next few seasons. The only real risk is that spending this much on him makes it tougher to re-sign players on deals that expire 3 or 4 years down the line. A lot can happen in that time (look at what our lineup looked like 4 years ago if you don't believe me), so it is really pointless anxiety IMO.
The greater risk is if (and it is an "if") his play deteriorates badly in a couple of years we will be spending an awful lot of cash for a guy who is plunging in our depth chart. I think it was worth the risk, others may not, and both of these views are valid because no one has a crystal ball. I'm just happy because I think the current team with Phaneuf on it will be a lot more fun to watch than the team with a revolving door along Ceci, or the one that used Boro next to Karlsson at times.
Phaneuf is now in the cost structure of the team moving forward for the next few seasons. The only real risk is that spending this much on him makes it tougher to re-sign players on deals that expire 3 or 4 years down the line. A lot can happen in that time (look at what our lineup looked like 4 years ago if you don't believe me), so it is really pointless anxiety IMO.
The greater risk is if (and it is an "if") his play deteriorates badly in a couple of years we will be spending an awful lot of cash for a guy who is plunging in our depth chart. I think it was worth the risk, others may not, and both of these views are valid because no one has a crystal ball. I'm just happy because I think the current team with Phaneuf on it will be a lot more fun to watch than the team with a revolving door along Ceci, or the one that used Boro next to Karlsson at times.
there are a lot of ways that you can look at this deal
1. like a few have said, I agree that our biggest issue was missing a top 4 dman. Dion addresses that. I guess the question is how long can he remain a top 4 guy. Apparently he is a fitness freak so that bodes well for his longevity.
2. everyone seems pretty happy with the Method contract. If Methot and Dion were both coming UFAs this summer, who is in more demand and who gets the bigger contract? If Methot at 4.9 is a solid deal, is Dion at 6.6 really that bad? Dion certainly would get a premium over Methot
3. Contracts that cascade down over time result in the player becoming more attractive trade bait over time. When cap hit is > dollars, the player becomes attractive to a lot of teams that struggle getting to the floor.
4. Immediate savings that someone pointed out in the near term due to the Canadian dollar
5. two year down the road the lebreton situation should be more clear - maybe Melnyk is looking at things and the thought process is that with long term higher revenues down the road due to a new rink that he's in a better position to spend.
1. like a few have said, I agree that our biggest issue was missing a top 4 dman. Dion addresses that. I guess the question is how long can he remain a top 4 guy. Apparently he is a fitness freak so that bodes well for his longevity.
2. everyone seems pretty happy with the Method contract. If Methot and Dion were both coming UFAs this summer, who is in more demand and who gets the bigger contract? If Methot at 4.9 is a solid deal, is Dion at 6.6 really that bad? Dion certainly would get a premium over Methot
3. Contracts that cascade down over time result in the player becoming more attractive trade bait over time. When cap hit is > dollars, the player becomes attractive to a lot of teams that struggle getting to the floor.
4. Immediate savings that someone pointed out in the near term due to the Canadian dollar
5. two year down the road the lebreton situation should be more clear - maybe Melnyk is looking at things and the thought process is that with long term higher revenues down the road due to a new rink that he's in a better position to spend.
trentmccleary
Registered User
We had Kuba until he was 35 yo and Gonchar until he was 38 yo; Phaneuf is an all-round #2 now and will easily still be a top-4 by the time he hits 35 yo.
Cowen and Greening were going to make something like $2.13M in real dollars the last 1/3 of the season. Phaneuf will make $1.98M.
Next season, Cowen and Greening were going to make $7.7M in real dollars. Phaneuf will make $7.5M.
The first 15 months were paid entirely with salaries for garbage players that this organization did not want to ice anymore. With an extra $350k to spare.
Plus, another $5.32M with Michalek moving on.
Phaneuf does have a big contract, but Toronto took on approximately 40% of the salary back in bad contracts. This was a great deal for Ottawa and it was the only kind of deal that was realistic... I'd always thought it was going to be something like Cowen, Greening and a 2nd for Marc Staal.
Cowen and Greening were going to make something like $2.13M in real dollars the last 1/3 of the season. Phaneuf will make $1.98M.
Next season, Cowen and Greening were going to make $7.7M in real dollars. Phaneuf will make $7.5M.
The first 15 months were paid entirely with salaries for garbage players that this organization did not want to ice anymore. With an extra $350k to spare.
Plus, another $5.32M with Michalek moving on.
Phaneuf does have a big contract, but Toronto took on approximately 40% of the salary back in bad contracts. This was a great deal for Ottawa and it was the only kind of deal that was realistic... I'd always thought it was going to be something like Cowen, Greening and a 2nd for Marc Staal.
dumbdick
Galactic Defender
- May 31, 2008
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My 2 cents on the correct way to judge this trade....
1) Subtract out Greening and Cowen real dollar salary from Phaneuf's real dollar salary over the full length of Phaneuf's contract. This is roster spot equivalent, since it's basically one D for one D.
2) Whatever's left treat as Phaneuf's new salary structure. It's this "new Phaneuf" that we traded for, and how the trade should be judged.
3) So the trade boils down to "New Phaneuf" for Michalek, Lindberg and a 2nd round pick (probably 30-45 overall)
I'm too lazy to do the math, but I think it's conceptually easier to just take out Cowen and Greening entirely and consider the trade in these new terms. This of course assumes that Cowen and Greening are done and none of the leafs prospects we got back pan out to anything.
1) Subtract out Greening and Cowen real dollar salary from Phaneuf's real dollar salary over the full length of Phaneuf's contract. This is roster spot equivalent, since it's basically one D for one D.
2) Whatever's left treat as Phaneuf's new salary structure. It's this "new Phaneuf" that we traded for, and how the trade should be judged.
3) So the trade boils down to "New Phaneuf" for Michalek, Lindberg and a 2nd round pick (probably 30-45 overall)
I'm too lazy to do the math, but I think it's conceptually easier to just take out Cowen and Greening entirely and consider the trade in these new terms. This of course assumes that Cowen and Greening are done and none of the leafs prospects we got back pan out to anything.
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
- 22,595
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I'm including Milo in my calculation as he was moved and it was a bad contract even though I like MM9.
danielpalfredsson
youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
- Aug 14, 2013
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You guys also aren't factoring in the warehouses full of unsold Cowen #2 merchandise that can be repurposed. That is pretty huge.
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