Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Epictetus, Aug 5, 2017.
Freaking Karlsson, eh? 70 pts at 21.
WTF is that
I'd disagree, Dobson goes top 5 and is a much much better prospect than Liljegren.
If I had to rank them: Dahlin>Dobson>Hughes>Boqvist>Liljegren>Bouchard
To each there own. I would probably take all of the 2018 guys ahead of where Lilly was last year. I would rank Bouchard higher, too.
Yeah fair enough, I'm sure most would, I personally am just not as high on Bouchard as the rest.
But saying Liljegren is a better prospect than Dobson sounds like a bit of a reach... don't you think?
Whats the sample size of 19 year old defenseman in the American league? Probably very small. Drawing any conclusion from stat watching his production in the American League seems pointless.
According to EP, since 01/02, only 5 seasons where Defenseman have played more than 40GP in their U19 AHL season exist. Good on him for playing well in the American league and sticking there but saying 'most points since Voynov' doesn't tell us much as the sample size is EXTREMELY small. Almost 2 decades and only 5 seasons of data.
Elite Prospects - AHL Stats All-time season
I look at guys like Valimaki, Liljegren and Brannstrom as guys who look like the real deal, and there's a lot of value in where a guy is a year after their draft year. I would have a hard time trading Liljegren for Dobson because of the uncertainty, but I would still do it.
Are they better prospects? Probably yes, but they are riskier. Are they much better prospects in their draft year? I would say there's no argument there.
Yes, he's pretty good. But the prior claim, which I'm questioning, is the claim that Liljegren is currently showing ELITE offensive potential. In response @Atomos2 has suggested that Rielly had slightly better International Competition, but he ended up with 50 points this year.... it seems as a response suggesting that Rielly is ELITE offensively, and was only slightly better than Liljegren at the same age, so then Liljegren must be showing ELITE potential too.
Rielly has been damned good for us, but ELITE? No, I don't think he's anywhere near ELITE, but yes, pretty good. Same with Liljegren. He's shown much better defensively than expected, but I don't think ELITE offensive skills yet. A number of posts above, I've shown what ELITE like stats were, for players at 19 and 20, as rookies in the AHL, so that we can compare this coming season, for Lilly's second AHL season.
The only thing in question, is the term ELITE. No argument on the term, pretty good, very good... agree on that. Just not ELITE.
If we want to compare Rielly and Liljegren in international competition there is more than the D+1 WJC.
At 16 years old:
Rielly: 6GP, 2G 3A 5 Pts
Liljegren: 6GP, 3G 2A 5 Pts
Reilly: 7GP, 2G 1A 3 Pts
Liljegren: 7GP, 1G 5A 6 Pts
At 18 years old:
Rielly: 6 GP 1G 2A 3 Pts
Liljegren: 7 GP 0G 2A 2Pts (with 4 points at the summer showcase)
That doesn't begin to discuss the idea that an additional point in the world junior championships means that it was a better international competition - especially as the rules have changed and 2 secondary assists that Liljegren would have had under previous rules were not counted under current rules. It is point fetishizing to the extreme.
We can also compare their D+1 time in the AHL
Rielly: 22GP 4 Pts
Liljegren: 62GP 21 Pts
And that really doesn't mean anything either. What matters is the tools that a player has, because those still exist if the player is being deployed in other ways, or working on other aspects of their game - such as defence. Did Doughty take a big step backwards between his D-1 years and his D year in the OHL when he dropped from 74 points to 50? Or did he take a step forward because everyone already knew he had the offensive tools and he spent his draft year showing that he was a great all around D? In Dermott's first 88 Games during his D+2 and D+3 he had 34 points. Then in the next 9 games he had 13 points. Did he suddenly learn how to play offensively?
Your repeated claims that offensive D put up big numbers right away in the AHL doesn't hold true for Burns or Suter - both of whom played their D+2 years in the AHL (60+ games each) putting up lower PPG than Liljegren did in his D+1. Keith played 2 full years in the AHL (his D+2 and D+3) and didn't put up a PPG as high as Liljegren's D+1.
Thanks for clearing that UP. Each opinion is valid, including YOURS.
Not at all, I have nothing against Liljegren. I was just pointing out what I saw watching the Calder Finals.
haha.. why are people still fixed on this guy? There's a whole new crop of prospects to analyze by now. Lilly did pretty good for his age on the Marlies. He's not ready.. won't be for 2-3 years imo.
Only two of them were in their second seasons. The rest were 3+ seasons. As far as Rielly goes, only one of the players you listed as offensively elite hit 50 points in the NHL faster than him.
I get that, but this is part III, first post in this thread was from August 2017 after he was drafted.
I have watched Liljegren play a lot this year, so have several other posters. Plus he is still playing right now, so it makes sense that he is being talked about.
I have little interest in going into discussions about 2018 draft prospects that I haven't watched (except for the few that played in the WJC), being discussed by posters who for the most part haven't watched the prospects they are arguing for, and comparing those prospects they haven't watched against other prospects who they think are way worse, but they haven't watched either, based on the draft rankings of an organization which they think is far superior to other draft ranking organizations even though they all mostly base their rankings off each other and then shift a couple prospects up or down.
is your question why do the rest of us have lengthier attention spans rather than leap to obsess over the newest shiny toy? I don't get it
Probably because he's one of the few good prospects in the world still playing hockey, and he's playing very good hockey at that.
Liljegren was a bust in the eyes of many the second he was drafted by the Leafs.
The fact that he is progressing as one would hope is a thorn in the side of the many people that hate the fact that the Leafs are now properly managed and are heading in the right direction.
Just watched the reply of the Marlies game on Leafs TV and Lilly wasn’t very good tonight. He didn’t seem to play very much and mainly 3rd pairing. Very awkward player but he does get the puck off his stick very quick. Needs at least another season in the AHL. Really like Dermott’s game and he has Top 4 written all over him.
At worst he's a top-20 defenseman in the NHL. If he has another season like he did this year, he's pushing top-10.
I'm not sure commenting on his play from Game 6 is fair since it seemed he was barely on the ice - you can't really have a bad game if you don't play much. Not sure if Keefe has a hate-on for him right now or if he's dealing with an injury from some of those big hits he's eaten.
It's weird that he hasn't been tried on the powerplay yet though, given how awful it's been. Funniest stat of the Finals is that the Stars have scored as many goals on Marlies' powerplays as the Marlies have (1-1).
Lilly played fine today and he got plenty of playing time. As of right now he's the third option on the PP behind Holl, Rosen and Dermott. Our whole team **** the bed tonight. Forwards were horrible, defensive coverage was horrendous, no puck support and Sparks didn't make a single clutch save. I'm not sure the other poster was watching the right game if he thought Lilly of all our defenders was the one who had a bad game. Unless you want to blame him for making a neutral zone pass to his winger who then proceeded to take it backward into his zone, get stripped and get scored against.
I won't disagree with not having a great game; the whole defence was out of sync. But I'd never describe Lilly as "awkward"...uncertain maybe? He's fluid even when he's not having a great game. He definitely needs more AHL time to assert himself offensively, but a lot of that is Keefe just doesn't use him as much as AHL vets. And he needs that time and trust next year, even if he's going to make mistakes (and he will, because he isn't a top pairing lock by any means).
He definitely has these moments -- especially on zone entries during a powerplay -- where it looks like he's going against his instincts to do what the coach wants, and he's just not good at it. He's our best D (other than Dermott, who is a Leaf) at skating the puck into/out of zones, and EVERY powerplay he gets to center and drops it back to the players behind him. Every time. Completely obvious, no hiding it. It's so predictable that it MUST be a coaching decision, and I hate it so much. The Stars just sit there waiting for it. Our PP is awful right now.
No. He's a good top pairing tweener. But you're overrating him.
Oh yeah? Tell me how many defenseman with his comp stats came away with a positive rel.CF%? Tell me how many defenseman in spite of playing brutal 5v5 minutes scored over 50 points.
Now lets imagine him with a partner that doesn't drag him down the majority of the season.
Rielly is definitely a case of reputation not having caught up to performance, it's really really hard to look at how he did this year and try to find 20 defensemen who were better let alone 30. If he repeats his performance he'll be widely recognized as a solid #1 - fair to say that he should do it again before he gets the title, and fair to say that it would be good to see him do it in about 10% more icetime per game
I think it also gets forgotten that Rielly absolutely carries a partner who does not deserve to be on the top pairing. If Liljegren turns out as a top pairing player, look out for that pairing