A few weeks ago there was a spirited debate about the Rangers drafts in 2014-2016. I did some research on the 2014 draft and was planning to write something but because my wife and I are in the process of buying a new house I have not had time to put my thoughts down.
Edge's excellent comment about evaluating drafts in context spurred me to get back to an analysis of the 2014 draft. It would be ridiculous to argue that having its second round pick be in the ECHL and not having signed its third or fourth round picks that the Rangers had a good draft. But just looking at the results of those 3 picks and the later picks that failed does not provide an adequate context for evaluating the draft.
1. First Round -- The Rangers lacked a first round pick. This is a problem in management of draft resources but not in selection. And trading away the pick is particularly important because 28 of the 30 players selected have played in the NHL, including #19 Tony De Angelo, and most look like they are going to have respectable NHL careers. If Michael Del Colle does not improve then we can say that a bad draft is using the #5 pick in the draft on one of the two players who did not play in the NHL. If the Rangers had kept that pick they could have chosen Adrian Kempe.
2. Second Round -- The Rangers had the second to last pick in the second round. But in the second round we see a very sharp drop off in NHL success to date. Of the 30 players selected only 8 have played in the NHL and only 3 have played more than 10 games.
3. Other Rounds -- There were 151 picks after the Rangers selected Brandon Halverson at pick 59. Of those 151 picks, 17 have played in the NHL. And of those 17 only 9 have played more than 10 games. So if in 2014 you were urging the Rangers to pick Brayden Point or Victor Arvidsson or Gustav Forling or Kevin Leblanc or Ondrej Kase then come on down and claim your prize. Yes the Rangers could have drafted one of these guys but there weren't a lot of them out there.
Obviously the final word has not been written on this draft and some draftees may progress to the NHL and others may have useful AHL careers and provide depth to NHL teams but to date this looks like a draft that had little depth.
4. Igor Shestorkin -- At pick 118 the Rangers selected Igor Shestorkin. I have never seen him play a game. But in reading the things many of you who have seen him play have written, it appears he has a shot to be a very good NHL player.
My conclusion based on evidence to date is that in the context of being without a first round pick in 2014 and having the second to last pick in the second round, the chances of having a productive draft in 2014 do not appear to have been high and if Shestorkin does turn out to be an NHL player, the 2014 draft, in the context of other players available, may not turn out to have been as bad as thought. I also would note that having seen a little bit of Tyler Nanne play I wouldn't give up all hope on him.
The other conclusion I draw is the Rangers have to stop trading away first round picks. It looks like Jeff Gorton is much more reluctant to do that than Glenn Sather.
Considering the number of picks we had, that would be a really solid draft.
It's also something to consider when we look at a lot of the 2013-2016 drafts. We can't really view them through the same prism as some of our other drafts. Just the absence of a first round pick alone has a significant impact on the likelihood of finding a mainstay NHL player.
