OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona
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Asuna
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NewAgeOutlaw
Belie Dat!
Greg Brown didn't seem to know it was gone based on his radio call. It sounded like an explosion off of the bat.
DJ Spinoza
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Yeah, several of Glasnow's Ks were on the curveball, which is a great sign. If he keeps the fastball command and has control of the curveball, then he should be useful enough coming out of the bullpen. Get some momentum there and then look at adding back in the changeup to the mix. It seems like the new approach is basically having him not take a lot of time between pitches. I'm not sure if that will carry over into the season, but it's a plausible enough fix for the combination of mechanical and mental issues that have plagued him.
One bad thing is that Polanco was scratched today because of a knee issue. Hopefully it's just overly precautious, I read something about a slide into third base yesterday or the day before.
Meadows is on a total tear. It'd be more interesting if this were the case and we didn't have Dickerson, but it's good to see him off to a start, and ideally he carries it right over into AAA everyday and adds the health. I guess if Polanco ends up being in more of a situation, there's a conversation to be had about starting with Meadows, but I think between service time and his generally injury-and-mediocre plagued ABs in AAA, he's ticketed for at least a couple months there. If he hits at an intense base for 6-7 weeks straight, then maybe things look different, but I imagine at most he's knocking on the door later in the hot months of the summer, and in any case, the ideal way to draw up his season is more like a full, productive, healthy one than him really pressing the issue of deserving a callup.
One bad thing is that Polanco was scratched today because of a knee issue. Hopefully it's just overly precautious, I read something about a slide into third base yesterday or the day before.
Meadows is on a total tear. It'd be more interesting if this were the case and we didn't have Dickerson, but it's good to see him off to a start, and ideally he carries it right over into AAA everyday and adds the health. I guess if Polanco ends up being in more of a situation, there's a conversation to be had about starting with Meadows, but I think between service time and his generally injury-and-mediocre plagued ABs in AAA, he's ticketed for at least a couple months there. If he hits at an intense base for 6-7 weeks straight, then maybe things look different, but I imagine at most he's knocking on the door later in the hot months of the summer, and in any case, the ideal way to draw up his season is more like a full, productive, healthy one than him really pressing the issue of deserving a callup.
Brandinho
deng xiaoping gang
Meadows just needs to stay healthy. He's not a pretty good prospect, he's elite, and he's still only 22. It's good to see him starting on a high note, but talent has never been the issue with him.
DJ Spinoza
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Probably also worth explicitly noting that still 0 walks from Glasnow, although if I'm not mistaken, it wasn't an enormous issue in spring training last year, either. My hazy memory (and laziness to look it up) is that he had one start with pretty bad control, but otherwise was often ahead in counts and really only walked one or maybe two in his other appearances. Still extremely early, but 0 is a good sign, and control will in a sense be magnified if he's in the bullpen.
I think the Feliz-Rivero combination is going to turn out to be pretty elite. Toss in Kontos and at least the possibility of Siegrist for the year, and you have a great mix. I'm really guessing Siegrist will make it at this point, unless his velocity is way down. Smoker and Leathersich don't seem very impressive, and the latter got smoked today.
I think the Feliz-Rivero combination is going to turn out to be pretty elite. Toss in Kontos and at least the possibility of Siegrist for the year, and you have a great mix. I'm really guessing Siegrist will make it at this point, unless his velocity is way down. Smoker and Leathersich don't seem very impressive, and the latter got smoked today.
Winger for Hire
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Greg was scratched because of a sore knee form sliding into 3rd last game.
Just precautionary from the sounds of it.
Just precautionary from the sounds of it.
DJ Spinoza
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It's also on at the regular time on MLB tv, via the Twins feed, but I think it only works if you live outside of Pittsburgh or maybe use some means to trick your internet into thinking that?
Hard to say without knowing for sure, but it seems like Brault would line up to start the game Sunday. Nova's been announced as tomorrow's starter.
DJ Spinoza
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Dickerson is finally in the lineup today, although I'm less interested in following closely with Nova on the mound...
DJ Spinoza
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Caved and am listening for a bit - NH making an appearance. He started saying something about ongoing conversations with the Rays, but was cutoff by the break. He was then mainly focused on Dickerson (which was the context of what they were asking him), stating that he was basically the one guy they were potentially targeting going into spring training, otherwise they were happy to go with a combination of Frazier, Rodriguez, and Luplow, with Frazier getting a lot of starts. It sounded intriguing at first because he was alluding to ongoing discussions with the Rays, so perhaps involving some of the pitchers, but of course, difficult to translate vague GM speak.
Based on what he was saying, it's definitely the case that the final job on the bench is up for grabs, which we basically knew. It sounds like Rodriguez is going to back up Mercer, and he mentioned LF, CF (!!!!!), and 2B as where Frazier will rotate around to.
I had been thinking that Moroff might make a complimentary bench piece, since he's better at SS and generally much better defensively than Frazier, but I think Frazier's hit tool has him as the key utility player right now, and Moroff is largely unproven.
I'd guess that the last spot will be Brentz, unless he is terrible all spring. Huntington is still talking, but he hasn't mentioned either Moroff or Osuna, and Luplow only at the beginning. I'm not so much drawing conclusions from that, but just thinking that it will be an OF, and the team probably wants Luplow getting somewhat regular at-bats, so it basically comes down to Osuna and Brentz, with Osuna being not very useful outside of his arm out there.
Edit: now he's onto talking about Osuna, praising his defensive work at 3B.
Based on what he was saying, it's definitely the case that the final job on the bench is up for grabs, which we basically knew. It sounds like Rodriguez is going to back up Mercer, and he mentioned LF, CF (!!!!!), and 2B as where Frazier will rotate around to.
I had been thinking that Moroff might make a complimentary bench piece, since he's better at SS and generally much better defensively than Frazier, but I think Frazier's hit tool has him as the key utility player right now, and Moroff is largely unproven.
I'd guess that the last spot will be Brentz, unless he is terrible all spring. Huntington is still talking, but he hasn't mentioned either Moroff or Osuna, and Luplow only at the beginning. I'm not so much drawing conclusions from that, but just thinking that it will be an OF, and the team probably wants Luplow getting somewhat regular at-bats, so it basically comes down to Osuna and Brentz, with Osuna being not very useful outside of his arm out there.
Edit: now he's onto talking about Osuna, praising his defensive work at 3B.
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DanielPlainview
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I will not get my hopes up about Glasnow until I see him pitch well for a stretch of actual MLB games. The kid is a headcase and until he figures that out, I see nothing coming of him but frustration.
DJ Spinoza
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Taillon throws 48 pitches over 2 and 2/3rds innings. He got a lot of weak contact, mostly looked ok. A bit rusty in some spots, and gave up one really hard hit ball to Dozier.
The offense doesn't looks too great, but it's a split squad today. Polanco has looked pretty loose overall, made a very nice tumbling catch earlier in the game.
Edit: Feliz is in and has given up a walk and a single which scored a run after Buxton has stolen third. The umpire is calling a pretty tight zone - two or three pitches have been right there and he's called them balls. Based on what I'm seeing, there's a lot of reason to be excited about Feliz as a combo with Rivero for the next three years. Gets the last guy swinging with a really nice breaking ball, but ends up with 29 or 30 pitches in the inning.
BTW, Twins are rolling with what is probably their everyday lineup. Not sure if there's another interesting pitcher coming in for us, but I've got about half an hour left in me. The Twins announcers had some random guy on talking about fishing for the entirety of last inning.
The offense doesn't looks too great, but it's a split squad today. Polanco has looked pretty loose overall, made a very nice tumbling catch earlier in the game.
Edit: Feliz is in and has given up a walk and a single which scored a run after Buxton has stolen third. The umpire is calling a pretty tight zone - two or three pitches have been right there and he's called them balls. Based on what I'm seeing, there's a lot of reason to be excited about Feliz as a combo with Rivero for the next three years. Gets the last guy swinging with a really nice breaking ball, but ends up with 29 or 30 pitches in the inning.
BTW, Twins are rolling with what is probably their everyday lineup. Not sure if there's another interesting pitcher coming in for us, but I've got about half an hour left in me. The Twins announcers had some random guy on talking about fishing for the entirety of last inning.
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DJ Spinoza
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Kuhl's on the mound today. I know I've harped repeatedly on Polanco and Moran as who I think are the keys between a 75-win team and something more like an 82+ win, WC dark horse team (more cumulatively than +wins all by themselves, of course), but I increasingly think Kuhl might make a trio with those three.
I've downplayed him more than anyone, and I still think he's more of a nice backend guy to have, but the plus stuff on all of his pitches helps a lot, especially if he can get his walks back to where they were when he emerged on the scene. I think I've undersold the impact that his mid-season adjustments made, particularly in getting through the order a bit more thoroughly. I think it's fair to say that last year, the curveball emerged mid-season and made a difference between flashes of real brilliance and a guy who could at least get 5-6 clean innings a lot, ie a solid 4, maybe 3 on some nights.
This piece covers some similar ground: Chad Kuhl could the biggest wild card for the 2018 Pirates
The biggest question for me still is what kind of pitcher he'll be. He didn't have an enormous spike in Ks, but it's possible that he can be more of a strikeout pitcher if the Pirates are willing to unchain his secondary stuff more, and he knows how to deploy it. I think he showed the latter to some extent last year, and he's got enough tools in the mix to really dream on if he manages to both miss more bats and walk less.
I expect something of a repeat of last year with maybe a bit more consistency overall, and a couple high points which rev up the hype machine. I think if he does that, he'll remain a really nice compliment as a backend guy, picking up 2.5 WAR or so. Anything more than that and he'll enter the fray as one of the big impact players.
I've downplayed him more than anyone, and I still think he's more of a nice backend guy to have, but the plus stuff on all of his pitches helps a lot, especially if he can get his walks back to where they were when he emerged on the scene. I think I've undersold the impact that his mid-season adjustments made, particularly in getting through the order a bit more thoroughly. I think it's fair to say that last year, the curveball emerged mid-season and made a difference between flashes of real brilliance and a guy who could at least get 5-6 clean innings a lot, ie a solid 4, maybe 3 on some nights.
This piece covers some similar ground: Chad Kuhl could the biggest wild card for the 2018 Pirates
The biggest question for me still is what kind of pitcher he'll be. He didn't have an enormous spike in Ks, but it's possible that he can be more of a strikeout pitcher if the Pirates are willing to unchain his secondary stuff more, and he knows how to deploy it. I think he showed the latter to some extent last year, and he's got enough tools in the mix to really dream on if he manages to both miss more bats and walk less.
I expect something of a repeat of last year with maybe a bit more consistency overall, and a couple high points which rev up the hype machine. I think if he does that, he'll remain a really nice compliment as a backend guy, picking up 2.5 WAR or so. Anything more than that and he'll enter the fray as one of the big impact players.
DanielPlainview
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Kuhl can be a very nice pitcher, he just has to gain consistency. Seems to be the theme for all of the SPs not named Taillon.
DJ Spinoza
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I've liked Williams a bit more because he seems more consistent to me. Especially after the uptick in Kuhl's velocity, Williams' stuff isn't quite as good, but he seems especially useful as a backend guy for dependability reasons. I haven't done a deep dive into any numbers, so I'm going mostly off memory and observation.
Even a somewhat erratic Kuhl is useful in that role, but a slightly upgraded one would be very nice. The same probably goes for Musgrove, who has more of a pedigree from his prospect days, although it's not like Kuhl came out of nowhere, either.
In any case, I don't think it's totally insane to think that the top three pitchers could be Taillon, Musgrove, and Kuhl by early June or so. Although the word on Musgrove has been nil from what I've seen, which might hamper his chance to start in the rotation (maybe Glasnow or Brault will get an early spot start, and then a decision made later, but all the talk has been that Musgrove will be in the rotation).
Even a somewhat erratic Kuhl is useful in that role, but a slightly upgraded one would be very nice. The same probably goes for Musgrove, who has more of a pedigree from his prospect days, although it's not like Kuhl came out of nowhere, either.
In any case, I don't think it's totally insane to think that the top three pitchers could be Taillon, Musgrove, and Kuhl by early June or so. Although the word on Musgrove has been nil from what I've seen, which might hamper his chance to start in the rotation (maybe Glasnow or Brault will get an early spot start, and then a decision made later, but all the talk has been that Musgrove will be in the rotation).
hah i had the same thought irt williams and consistency. even spent a few minutes trying to see if anyone had looked at pitcher consistency - guess you could do a gamescore dispersion measure to get something like that, though i couldnt readily find it.
DJ Spinoza
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I basically just have the strong impression that Williams will give you a QS no matter what, unless the game situation dictates him being pinch hit for or something. He'll give up a couple runs, but you'll be in the game, and he can make really big pitches when he needs to. In a way, I'm still more stoked on him than Kuhl, because if you treat him as a young pitcher who also has room to go, he already shows a lot of things to like. I just don't know if the swing and miss stuff is there, but he's still the kind of guy you really want in the rotation.
Kuhl has also never really been a swing and miss guy, but he had a huge velocity uptick which he's maintained, and the data looks good in terms of him slowly incorporating a curveball and slider. My impression with him was more that he would totally dominate for about 4 innings, and then things would turn into a real struggle. If he can still do that and incorporate the offspeed stuff even more often, then his ceiling is a bit higher. It's probably a bit hasty to just assume he can put all the good things together and essentially reinvent himself as more of a strikeout pitcher, not least because that's not how the Pirates philosophy has worked.
The other way to put it is that the floor is better with Williams. If Kuhl continues to basically just be dominant for 3-4 inning stretches, then I think you can make a good argument that he's more useful out of the bullpen. But I think he's shown enough that this would be too brazen of a decision, unless of course we are going to try and innovate in some crazy way beyond a five-man rotation.
Kuhl has also never really been a swing and miss guy, but he had a huge velocity uptick which he's maintained, and the data looks good in terms of him slowly incorporating a curveball and slider. My impression with him was more that he would totally dominate for about 4 innings, and then things would turn into a real struggle. If he can still do that and incorporate the offspeed stuff even more often, then his ceiling is a bit higher. It's probably a bit hasty to just assume he can put all the good things together and essentially reinvent himself as more of a strikeout pitcher, not least because that's not how the Pirates philosophy has worked.
The other way to put it is that the floor is better with Williams. If Kuhl continues to basically just be dominant for 3-4 inning stretches, then I think you can make a good argument that he's more useful out of the bullpen. But I think he's shown enough that this would be too brazen of a decision, unless of course we are going to try and innovate in some crazy way beyond a five-man rotation.
DJ Spinoza
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Looks like neither Kuhl nor Williams had the greatest of outings today. Brown was making a slight worry out of Rivero not really showing the high heat yet, but his first pitch was 96, so I don't think there's really anything to be too concerned about.
He also mentioned at one point how slow Brentz was. This might be kind of an issue in carrying him on the bench. Sure, if he's going to slug, he's definitely got some real upside. But if he's not really much of a sure thing offensively, I'd rather not also take the risks on him in terms of defense. Jury is still out on the remainder of spring training, but I lean more towards Moroff at this point.
He also mentioned at one point how slow Brentz was. This might be kind of an issue in carrying him on the bench. Sure, if he's going to slug, he's definitely got some real upside. But if he's not really much of a sure thing offensively, I'd rather not also take the risks on him in terms of defense. Jury is still out on the remainder of spring training, but I lean more towards Moroff at this point.
DJ Spinoza
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Pirates pitcher Joe Musgrove, slowed by sore shoulder, thinks he will be ready for season
Bit of an update on Musgrove - it seems like they are just being careful with getting him back in motion, since he pitched so late into the season.
Glasnow is starting today, trying to carry his walkless streak to three appearances.
Edit: pretty rocky stuff from Glasnow today. Mostly gave up some weak contact or seeing eye singles, but then the control slipped a little bit, and an error led to what ended up as a two-run triple (not sure how they scored it, Moroff threw the ball into the outfield). But then some more wildness and a home run for Travis. Not his day at all, though he started out fine, ahead in counts and mixing in the curveball quite a bit. Will be interesting to see the post mortem on it, but I think he's at two walks, four of five hits including a HR.
Glasnow stays in, gets in single, and then comes out for the next inning to strike two guys out, but walk the final guy after going deep in a count with him. His day is done, and I am sure that the stat line is pretty vintage Glasnow. Definitely a bit of a bump in the road, but I'm going to suggest a more hot take approach and say not to worry much about this one. The three walks are the biggest problem - really the contact was pretty weak. The HR was hard to tell with Block calling the game, but his control was pretty shoddy today. The runs are primarily due to a big error.
I think it's probably better for him to have this kind of setback now and still fight through it to make the team than it is for him to get tanked in his first couple relief outings. However, with Brault showing a good performance, it will be interesting if Glasnow continues to struggle. There's not a lot of use in sending him to AAA, but there's also not a lot of use in having him in a long-relief role where you basically can't use him.
Bit of an update on Musgrove - it seems like they are just being careful with getting him back in motion, since he pitched so late into the season.
Glasnow is starting today, trying to carry his walkless streak to three appearances.
Edit: pretty rocky stuff from Glasnow today. Mostly gave up some weak contact or seeing eye singles, but then the control slipped a little bit, and an error led to what ended up as a two-run triple (not sure how they scored it, Moroff threw the ball into the outfield). But then some more wildness and a home run for Travis. Not his day at all, though he started out fine, ahead in counts and mixing in the curveball quite a bit. Will be interesting to see the post mortem on it, but I think he's at two walks, four of five hits including a HR.
Glasnow stays in, gets in single, and then comes out for the next inning to strike two guys out, but walk the final guy after going deep in a count with him. His day is done, and I am sure that the stat line is pretty vintage Glasnow. Definitely a bit of a bump in the road, but I'm going to suggest a more hot take approach and say not to worry much about this one. The three walks are the biggest problem - really the contact was pretty weak. The HR was hard to tell with Block calling the game, but his control was pretty shoddy today. The runs are primarily due to a big error.
I think it's probably better for him to have this kind of setback now and still fight through it to make the team than it is for him to get tanked in his first couple relief outings. However, with Brault showing a good performance, it will be interesting if Glasnow continues to struggle. There's not a lot of use in sending him to AAA, but there's also not a lot of use in having him in a long-relief role where you basically can't use him.
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Winger for Hire
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DanielPlainview
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Winger for Hire
Praise Beebo
Feliz got taken deep 3 times... and the most shocking thing about the game, Russ Martin is playing 3rd?!?!?
DJ Spinoza
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Feliz got tagged for 3 HRs - this one is definitely the kind of game you are happy is happening on March 7th. Bell hit a HR at least.
Holmes getting in on the give up HRs action...
In all seriousness, it's still early on in meaningless March-time, but I don't think Glasnow should just be given a spot in the bullpen. There's enough competition and quality that he needs to show he can earn a spot, which in fairness, his early showings were indicating. So we have to take the longview of spring training, but the big red flag today was what seems like the return of real wildness - with balls way outside the zone and bouncing, etc.
I think you also have to factor in a few things relative to the bullpen: it's a totally new role for him, we're going to need all available arms and an impact bullpen for a good start (and don't want Hurdle basically not utilizing a spot), and it's not the worst thing in the world to have a depth starter in AAA with his kind of ceiling, even as fans get tired of not really seeing results.
The situation basically boils down to this: he has nothing to improve on or prepare in AAA outside of perhaps refining command of the offspeed pitches, and therefore he really needs to get MLB batters out with some consistency to have a shot at contributing in MLB. It's still extremely early to be giving up on him, but we're also not in the situation where we should just let him learn a new role and try to do all of this on the fly. Make him earn his spot in the mix, and if he doesn't, send him to Indianapolis. There will be a point where a spot opens up, and worst case scenario, if the team has a terrible two months, there will be plenty of ways to make a place for him to take his lumps as he tries to learn on the job.
Ultimately this is just a couple of bad sequences in a totally meaningless situation, but like I said, I'd rather see a bit of a stumble now and see what else he brings for the remainder of spring training. If he rights the ship, one of the swingman jobs is still well within possibility, but if he doesn't, then he's just further down the depth chart.
Holmes getting in on the give up HRs action...
In all seriousness, it's still early on in meaningless March-time, but I don't think Glasnow should just be given a spot in the bullpen. There's enough competition and quality that he needs to show he can earn a spot, which in fairness, his early showings were indicating. So we have to take the longview of spring training, but the big red flag today was what seems like the return of real wildness - with balls way outside the zone and bouncing, etc.
I think you also have to factor in a few things relative to the bullpen: it's a totally new role for him, we're going to need all available arms and an impact bullpen for a good start (and don't want Hurdle basically not utilizing a spot), and it's not the worst thing in the world to have a depth starter in AAA with his kind of ceiling, even as fans get tired of not really seeing results.
The situation basically boils down to this: he has nothing to improve on or prepare in AAA outside of perhaps refining command of the offspeed pitches, and therefore he really needs to get MLB batters out with some consistency to have a shot at contributing in MLB. It's still extremely early to be giving up on him, but we're also not in the situation where we should just let him learn a new role and try to do all of this on the fly. Make him earn his spot in the mix, and if he doesn't, send him to Indianapolis. There will be a point where a spot opens up, and worst case scenario, if the team has a terrible two months, there will be plenty of ways to make a place for him to take his lumps as he tries to learn on the job.
Ultimately this is just a couple of bad sequences in a totally meaningless situation, but like I said, I'd rather see a bit of a stumble now and see what else he brings for the remainder of spring training. If he rights the ship, one of the swingman jobs is still well within possibility, but if he doesn't, then he's just further down the depth chart.
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