mudcrutch79 said:
Does anyone think that if the NHL were to go the impasse route (which is very, very unlikely), they'll do it sooner than later? Burn this season, but implement your proposal prior to the draft? That removes the problem surrounding QO's, the draft and signing drafted players from 2003. I can't see much point in waiting until Sept. to implement.
Conversely, if they haven't done it by, say, June 15, would I be correct in concluding that they've decided not to?
I think this is a really interesting question. I have no idea how the NHL will manage these post non-season issues like the draft and qualifying offers. Impasse is a tempting solution.
Still, I think I make the call in September if I am going to do it (and I don't think they will.) Why? Because this whole replacement player thing doesn't work unless they break the strike. If they call it in September, they get their chance before the NLRB rules which may take months. If they have broken the strike, they cut a somewhat improved deal with the broken NHLPA and the NLRB hearing is rendered moot.
If they haven't broken the strike, they will be looking for a way out, and the NLRB may give them one. About 15% of the players will have a contract next season, so the costs may not be that bad if they lose an NLRB hearing in December. I've even imagined them tanking a hearing if they can't break the players with replacements.
The most attractive thing about the impasse strategy is the ability to control the timing. Even if they are not really at impasse, the NHL can have a shot at replacements if they want. It's still ridiculous in my view.
I honestly have no idea where the NHL is going from here. They have to know they are going to have to start to fight lawsuits. What on earth are they going to do about qualifying offers? Do they make them? If they don't, isn't 85% of the league a free agent? If they make them, won't at least one player turn it down and sue to become a free agent?
It boggles the mind what the league is doing here. I don't think they have a clue about any of the consequences. Oh, they have expensive advice, but there are so many issues and so few precedent it is all a fog. I've tried to trace through some possibilities and nothing seems to be a sure thing to me.
You would think they would have mapped out each possibility and developed contingencies for every possible move and countermove, but I can't find an end game for them. Did they expect the players to cave, they'd have a season and now there is no Plan B? Are they nuts? What's the next move?
They can't do nothing. They cancel the season. Then what? What are they going to do with the unsigned Juniors? What are they going to do in the absence of a draft? What are they going to do about qualifiers?
Tom