Prospect Info: Prospect and Marlies Thread: 2017 - 2018 (continued) Part II

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saltming

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I don't think there's much chance of going into opening night with that as the breakdown. Glendening @ 4C wouldn't surprise me, and either Nylander is given the reigns or we bring someone in at 3C. One way or another the NHL situation is going to be fine. The system....

Firstly- Aaltonen+Gauthier need new contracts, and I don't see Miro coming back for the Marlies. Seems like a perfect 13th forward candidate capable of filling in anywhere but 1 or 2 C. Beyond that we have three guys- Brooks, Joshua, and McGregor. McGregor is progressing nicely, I'm expecting a big final junior season but he doesn't factor into the pro picture. Joshua I don't know enough to comment on. That leaves Brooks as our only waiver exempt C on the Marlies, and he's been disappointing. Not ready to write him off but also it's not looking like he's anywhere near call up ready.

Conclusions
1.Bringing Aaltonen back or signing a 13th forward that can play C is a must
2. Bringing in a waiver exempt C to the Marlies would be nice.
3. Drafting a C or two to join Mcgregor in the longer term pool would be a good idea, but
A. the draft isn't going to fix our 2nd tier pro C depth next season unless it's a borderline NHL ready Euro or American, or double overage CHL pick
B. with Matthews/Kadri/Nylander(or ???) in the fold it's not like C is a long term weakness at the NHL level.

4. 2+3A would suggest that we dip into the UD UFA pool, whether it be NCAA, Euro, or CHL

BPA as always
I think Joshua will slot in nicely with the Marlies. The buckeyes are a good team and he is used in all situations on the team. His assist are down this year but his goals are up so if we put some talent on the wings around him he should show well
 
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SeaOfBlue

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I think Joshua will slot in nicely with the Marlies. The buckeyes are a good team and he is used in all situations on the team. His assist are down this year but his goals are up so if we put some talent on the wings around him he should show well

He can also play wing. Could be a good 4C option in a few years. Doubt he becomes more than that though. Could work out perfectly if the Leafs trade for Glendening, who has 3 years left after this one, so Joshua goes for his senior year and then gets two years in the AHL before replacing Glendening on the 4th line.
 

stickty111

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Johnsson - Aaltonen - Timashov
Rychel - Mueller - Smith
Greening - Gauthier - Moore Marchment - Brooks - Bracco

Borgman - LoVerde
Valiev - Liljegren
Nielsen - Rosen

Sparks
 

saltming

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He can also play wing. Could be a good 4C option in a few years. Doubt he becomes more than that though. Could work out perfectly if the Leafs trade for Glendening, who has 3 years left after this one, so Joshua goes for his senior year and then gets two years in the AHL before replacing Glendening on the 4th line.
If he comes to the Marlies next year how would that affect his contract status vs if he plays his senior year with Ohio?
Because I wouldn't mind seeing him come to the Marlies next year. 2 years there then sub in at 4th line C duties?
 

SeaOfBlue

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If he comes to the Marlies next year how would that affect his contract status vs if he plays his senior year with Ohio?
Because I wouldn't mind seeing him come to the Marlies next year. 2 years there then sub in at 4th line C duties?

He will be 23, so that means we'd have three years with him before he's waiver eligible. Depending upon when we decide to sign him (i.e. right after his senior year so he plays for the Marlies immediately vs. later in the summer), that could affect his FA status but we have him until he's 26 before he's waiver eligible.
 
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AppsSyl

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Johnsson and Borgman with the assists on the Aaltonen goal in the first.

Johnsson is a beast.
 

Pyromaniac

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Aaltonen's 6th goal in 7 games. He has 11 points in that same frame.

Johnsson with the assist which extends his point streak to 9 games with 18 points during the streak.
 

Cor

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I've said it before and I will say it again, Johnsson will score 25 in the NHL, maybe as soon as next season.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander - Scoring Line
Marleau - Kadri - Marner - "Shutdown" Line
Johnsson - Aaltonen - Kapanen - Sheltered Scoring Line
Leivo - Acquired C - Brown - All Situations Line

I see the Leivo/Brown line as the "3rd line", but generally our sheltered scoring line is seen as the 3rd.
 

VanW27

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He will be 23, so that means we'd have three years with him before he's waiver eligible. Depending upon when we decide to sign him (i.e. right after his senior year so he plays for the Marlies immediately vs. later in the summer), that could affect his FA status but we have him until he's 26 before he's waiver eligible.

I'm guessing the question was referring to his status at the end of his senior year.

In which case, if Joshua stays in college another season he could wait until Aug 15, 2019 and become a UFA like Toninato did last summer.

I wouldn't worry about it though, he's a similar prospect as Toninato so unless he blows up in his senior year teams won't be scrambling to sign him.
 

darrylsittler27

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Whether JVR walks or not and Nylander moves to 3C something has to give on W. I'm thinking Johnsson is a major piece right now. Sell high or keep?
 

Boutette

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2pts for Aaltonen today. One power play goal and one short handed assist. So we have a PP/SH specialist whose a leader on his team in plus minus and scoring and has scored 12pts in his last 7 games. Not bad for a free signing.

A point given to Johnsson then taken away, still tops on the team, a leader in the AHL in offense, plays PP/SH on the top defensive team in the league and has 18pts in his last 9 games. Nice for a 7th round pick
 
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AppsSyl

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Apparently they took away the assists from Johnsson and Borgman on the 1st goal.
 

X66

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Pronman was talking about Leafs prospects as trade options(for rentals) and he had this to say about Gordeev.

"I know a lot of scouts have been buzzing about big defenseman Fedor Gordeev as well out in the OHL."

Source - TheAthletic

This is great to hear, he did impress everyone at training camp and it looks like other people are taking notice as well.
 

SprDaVE

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I've said it before and I will say it again, Johnsson will score 25 in the NHL, maybe as soon as next season.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander - Scoring Line
Marleau - Kadri - Marner - "Shutdown" Line
Johnsson - Aaltonen - Kapanen - Sheltered Scoring Line
Leivo - Acquired C - Brown - All Situations Line

I see the Leivo/Brown line as the "3rd line", but generally our sheltered scoring line is seen as the 3rd.

I like it on paper. Not sure Babs or the Leafs will go into next season with that in mind though.
 

BoredBrandonPridham

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Ah the BPA discussion again.

So when we say BPA are we referring to likelihood of playing in the NHL or likelihood of being a star? 6A or 8D? No boom bust guys? When the Leafs traded down for Dermott it was likely because they saw a few similar prospects with little to choose between the them, rather than he was a great hidden talent absolutely nobody else knew about. There is BPA by 1-5% and there is tangible BPA (Rielly vs Koekkoek or Galchenyuk vs Grigorenko). If we are going to discuss BPA vs need we should agree on how much bias the "need" people are actually suggesting.

Need is a factor for every team should at least consider. In an extreme example, if you have all small skilled danglers, or all big grinders with limited explosive offense, at some point the identicals are blocking each other in your system (and the road blocked guys can't show their stuff enough to have strong trade value) so you end up trading for need and being squeezed. They have to decide between highest floor and highest ceiling too, so how is that metric so different from need? We can all agree that clubs don't always go for highest upside on every pick so BPA then becomes some kind of mix between absolute star potential, and chance of at least being a pro. Is BPA the 6A or the 8D? I am sure that varies from team to team, especially factoring intangibles like how deep is their team and how good has their drafting been the last few years? Some teams can afford to swing for the fences while others will need to save their jobs or at least get some more home grown talent in their system.

Talented defensemen with size will always be in the highest demand so their market value will make them more valuable than a similar forward with the same chance of success. A team that has high end young talent at every position salted throughout their system can go absolute BPA with any pick but that isn't most of the clubs in the league. Some people seem to imply the failure to take the 80% guy on your scouting sheet over the 79% guy is going to somehow make your club weaker. There is only a 20% chance any of these guys succeed so how many years of drafting would be required for a statistically significant deficit? Except for the top few picks the scouts are wrong almost all off the time. Compare draft position with success in most years and its clear.

If we have Suzuki, Valimaki, Foote and Kostim all there at 17 the scouting lists available to us said they are all very comparable, decent picks. They are all BPA depending on who you ask so throwing a dart is as likely to get us the best guy as any other means. For BPA to mean anything, the first thing is, there has to be a significant difference, not a decimal point, because every scout involved for every team has seen much better guys selected five picks after their BPA, every year.

The Leafs selected Dermott ahead of Aho. Were they drafting for position or BPA? They took Valiev ahead of Brayden Point. What was their thinking there because the chances of being an impact player always favored Point who lacked NHL size or he would have been a 1st round pick?

Skill level and physical package are both considered in every selection. The trick is not to miss the necessary balance, plus to have the luck that your prediction on the future development is accurate. If Karlsson stays 5'10" 170, he would have had a much different career. Alone among the major sports, the NHL has to consider growth between 17 and 20 as a huge factor in most drafting.

BPA is different from club to club and from scout to scout within an organization. Not an exact science.

This is a good post, albeit very long. I think I agree on most points here and are not objecting to much that I said.

Regarding your extreme example of having all small skill players v.s. all big grinders. Absolutely you draft to be the all skill players and you trade/sign your grinders. Skill players are obviously much harder to find. Look how much Leafs got Hyman for. What would it take to get a Kapanen? Much more.

Regarding your examples of Dermott/Aho or Valiev/Point. Not exactly sure what point you’re trying to make but I think Leafs we’re drafting for BPA. But in many cases the one who turns out better can be elsewhere in the draft. I think this is a great example of why you should never draft for a grinder or overvalue size because then you might end up with a Biggs while an Aho goes next. You never regret not taking the big lug that ends up a 3rd line grinder. You sign them for $2-4m in FA. It’s the first and second liners that you need on sweetheart ELC/RFA contracts to win a cup.
 

Welsh Maple Leaf

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I hear a lot of different names being branded as top prospects for the Leafs.

Have we got a very deep pool of prospects compared to the rest of the league or are we just over hyping our own?
 

613Leafer

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I hear a lot of different names being branded as top prospects for the Leafs.

Have we got a very deep pool of prospects compared to the rest of the league or are we just over hyping our own?

Well we're quite deep at the AHL level, but fairly thin after that I'd say. Marlies are the best AHL team, and are doing so predominantly on the backs of prospects (i.e. it's not a team loaded with career AHLers).
 

Ambassador Bridge

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I am really afraid that teams will want Johnsson or Aaltonen as part of a trade package if the Leafs go after a big name player like McDonagh.
 

saltming

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I am really afraid that teams will want Johnsson or Aaltonen as part of a trade package if the Leafs go after a big name player like McDonagh.
To be fair I don't see the management team doing something like that yet because we still need to see what we have in players like Johnsson first drip we can evaluate their value of we want to trade them
 

4thline

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I've said it before and I will say it again, Johnsson will score 25 in the NHL, maybe as soon as next season.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander - Scoring Line
Marleau - Kadri - Marner - "Shutdown" Line
Johnsson - Aaltonen - Kapanen - Sheltered Scoring Line
Leivo - Acquired C - Brown - All Situations Line

I see the Leivo/Brown line as the "3rd line", but generally our sheltered scoring line is seen as the 3rd.
My tweaks
Hyman-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
Leivo-Glendenning-Komarov
Aaltonen-Martin
 

member 147413

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I've said it before and I will say it again, Johnsson will score 25 in the NHL, maybe as soon as next season.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander - Scoring Line
Marleau - Kadri - Marner - "Shutdown" Line
Johnsson - Aaltonen - Kapanen - Sheltered Scoring Line
Leivo - Acquired C - Brown - All Situations Line

I see the Leivo/Brown line as the "3rd line", but generally our sheltered scoring line is seen as the 3rd.
That 3rd line is terrible.
 
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