Prospect Info: Prospect and Marlies Thread: 2017 - 2018 (continued) Part II

[Kiwi]

I’d gladly give Johnsson 6 years on a lower cap hit.

I'd love to lock Johnsson up right now.

Yep, I think he's a guaranteed 40 point player with potential for much more, so anything under 3.5-4 is good with me on a very long term contract

I would be so happy to give johnsson the "jarnkrok" deal but with another year and a bit more cash. Give him 7 years 2.75 or 7 years 3 million.
Jarnkrok signed that as a 30 pt player and has become a great player (can be a 45 point center in terms of pace)

I'd advise some caution, he's performing in the AHL but he's got zero track record at the NHL level and not everybody translates from one level to the other

This board is so funny. I get totally hammered for suggesting we offer Johnsson 2.5 mil a year over 4 years as being totally too much to pay the guy and too long a term. Now people are going 6-7 years at 3-4 million a year and nary a whisper from those who attacked my suggestion. I now see my mistake

Bridging him is still the right idea imo

 

[weems]

Really impressed with the job Keefe has done.

The back pressure and puck support is excellent and it leads to good defensive structure and clean movement of the puck especially breaking out of your own zone.

Sure the big club needs to upgrade the D but they also need to do a better job at paying mind to some of the smaller elements of being sound defensively.

 

[kindalaidback]

it's funnier to see that people are willing to give johnsson a longer deal than william nylander.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Really proud of this group. Looking forward to the final

 

[Cor]

it's funnier to see that people are willing to give johnsson a longer deal than william nylander.

?

There may be 1 or 2 people who want to bridge Nylander, but I think almost everyone wants Nylander on an 8 year deal.

Unless 6 is now more than 8

 

[Boutette]

I'd advise some caution, he's performing in the AHL but he's got zero track record at the NHL level and not everybody translates from one level to the other

Bridging him is still the right idea imo

You have to admit that he doesn't have *zero track record*. He was called up and stole the spot of a veteran who is our notoriously stubborn coach's go-to everyman player *in the playoffs*. Even if he has minimal NHL games under his belt, stealing a favored player's spot on the roster can never be considered *zero track record*. Instead of offering a big *nothing*, it actually leaves one to wonder, if Johnsson can steal a guy who Babcock likes to put in every hole like Komarov's place after just a few games in the league, who else's spot will he be capable of stealing after he becomes fully acclimatized to the NHL, after half or even full season?

 

[Kiwi]

You have to admit that he doesn't have *zero track record*. He was called up and stole the spot of a veteran who is our notoriously stubborn coach's go-to everyman player *in the playoffs*. Even if he has minimal NHL games under his belt, stealing a favored player's spot on the roster can never be considered *zero track record*. Instead of offering a big *nothing*, it actually leaves one to wonder, if Johnsson can steal a guy who Babcock likes to put in every hole like Komarov's place after just a few games in the league, who else's spot will he be capable of stealing after he becomes fully acclimatized to the NHL, after half or even full season?

That "go to player" got hurt and played like a plug this season so Johnsson playing instead of him isn't earth shattering

The problem with this is we're both speculating on where he ends up and what he's capable of rather than actually knowing that which the bridge deal would solve for us

 

[Boutette]

That "go to player" got hurt and played like a plug this season so Johnsson playing instead of him isn't earth shattering

The problem with this is we're both speculating on where he ends up and what he's capable of rather than actually knowing that which the bridge deal would solve for us

A four year deal provides certainty, as it has with Hyman and Brown. At $2.5 mil a year for 4 years, it doesn't break the bank or f**k our cap, and also shows Johnsson that we think he's earned the org's attention. As well, two years in he's still under 26, so the team has a risk mitigating escape clause in the form of a buyout. Works well for everyone and probably provides an incentive for Johnsson to give the team a small home team discount for banking on him when the team wasn't obligated to and it comes to the big money contract that would run him from age 27-32/33. Yeah, I'll admit I'm a glass half-full guy, but I think the team showing faith in him now could go a long way in determining how much he will cost the leafs in the future and offer a reason for him to want to stay when it comes to when he's a UFA. Kind of the exact opposite to what the leafs used to do with this kind of player, so maybe it is time the team tried it out.

 

[MR4]

Lol yeah anyone saying bridge Nylander is an idiot. I'd give Nylander & Marner 7 years and Matthews 8 to break up their contracts ending in 3 different seasons. Sign Johnsson & Kappy for 4-6 year deals asap.

That "go to player" got hurt and played like a plug this season so Johnsson playing instead of him isn't earth shattering

The problem with this is we're both speculating on where he ends up and what he's capable of rather than actually knowing that which the bridge deal would solve for us

Kind of irrelevant that Komarov played trash when Babcock didn't see it IMO.

Personally I think Johnsson's absolute floor is being worth 2.5-3M while he could max out being worth 6-8M, so I'm definitely willing to place my bets on him. Super confident in Johnsson

Also sorry Boutette if you actually did get mocked, 2.5M * 4 years is an easy yes deal for me

 

[Stephen]

it's funnier to see that people are willing to give johnsson a longer deal than william nylander.

I’m actually curious to see where they both top out. One has far superior raw abilities and the NHL track record but the other seems to be wired to succeed too and is a good dark horse candidate.

I think the only people who want to lock up Johnsson are just looking for a massive discount.

 

[Boutette]

I’m actually curious to see where they both top out. One has far superior raw abilities and the NHL track record but the other seems to be wired to succeed too and is a good dark horse candidate.

I think the only people who want to lock up Johnsson are just looking for a massive discount.

In the hard cap world of the NHL currently, the teams that are the most successful are the ones that have the best performance/cost ratio of its players. Care to argue that point?

 

[Kiwi]

Lol yeah anyone saying bridge Nylander is an idiot. I'd give Nylander & Marner 7 years and Matthews 8 to break up their contracts ending in 3 different seasons. Sign Johnsson & Kappy for 4-6 year deals asap.
Kind of irrelevant that Komarov played trash when Babcock didn't see it IMO.

Personally I think Johnsson's absolute floor is being worth 2.5-3M while he could max out being worth 6-8M, so I'm definitely willing to place my bets on him. Super confident in Johnsson

Also sorry Boutette if you actually did get mocked, 2.5M * 4 years is an easy yes deal for me

And I think there's plenty of guys that do well in the AHL and end up as AHL/NHL tweeners

Nobody on here actually knows what he is and until we get a decent sample at the NHL level that will continue to be the case

 

[Stephen]

In the hard cap world of the NHL currently, the teams that are the most successful are the ones that have the best performance/cost ratio of its players. Care to argue that point?

Aren't we just agreeing with each other?

Thing is if Nylander tops out as a 75 point player and costs $8 million and Johnsson tops out as a 65 point player (extremely optimistic) but you lock him up for $4 million for many years, you probably keep the latter and send the former packing. Glad I'm not in charge on that one.

 

[MR4]

And I think there's plenty of guys that do well in the AHL and end up as AHL/NHL tweeners

Nobody on here actually knows what he is and until we get a decent sample at the NHL level that will continue to be the case

The AHL/NHL tweeners don't come in and be one of their NHL team's top 6/7 forwards off the bat. I think you're downplaying the success of Johnsson's small sample last year. No reason to expect him to play significantly worse than he did last season, and I'd easily pay 2.5M for him just playing at the level he did

 

[Boutette]

Aren't we just agreeing with each other?

Thing is if Nylander tops out as a 75 point player and costs $8 million and Johnsson tops out as a 65 point player (extremely optimistic) but you lock him up for $4 million for many years, you probably keep the latter and send the former packing. Glad I'm not in charge on that one.

Probably. Depends how long the team expects Johnsson to take to get to 65. Look at Kadri's contract, for instance.

We've already gotten 2 super cheap years of a 60pt Nylander. I don't see him getting much more than 6x6 contract, where he will likely top out as a 75pt player over that period and maybe have a bad year or two. So I agree with you trying to tie down Johnsson for 6 years is a little ridiculous. Hell, I was told that even 4 years at $2.5 is an attempt to cheat him or the team, and the most he should get is a 2 year contract, but I figured that is consistent with what we've gotten from our big three in terms of low cost production and consistent with how the team has treated its promising youth (Brown/Hyman). Hard to say what's going on in the minds of people on this site.

 

[Kiwi]

The AHL/NHL tweeners don't come in and be one of their NHL team's top 6/7 forwards off the bat. I think you're downplaying the success of Johnsson's small sample last year. No reason to expect him to play significantly worse than he did last season, and I'd easily pay 2.5M for him just playing at the level he did

9 games, that's how much NHL experience he's got and giving him 2.5M for 4 years is a gigantic risk if that's your NHL sample

 

[Boutette]

And I think there's plenty of guys that do well in the AHL and end up as AHL/NHL tweeners

Nobody on here actually knows what he is and until we get a decent sample at the NHL level that will continue to be the case

I fully agree with you that points are not the be all and end all. Seth Griffith, for example is a point machine in the AHL, but has he ever a been team leader like Johnsson has been for the Marlies. Seth has been pretty much invisible whenever he's ever been promoted to the NHL. Has Johnsson? Most people watching him play for the Leafs were pretty damn impressed, even Babcock, who took one look at Seth and said, nah, yet put in Johnsson when there were more established players sitting on the bench. There's a lot of things you can see in players beyond just their stats in determining whether or not they can cope with being promoted from one level to another.

 

[Boutette]

9 games, that's how much NHL experience he's got and giving him 2.5M for 4 years is a gigantic risk if that's your NHL same

Actually 15 games. Don't shrug off the playoffs as though they are nothing. AFAIC, they are even harder to be thrown into as a rookie. The fact that Johnsson didn't blow it says he has a lot of the qualities this team is looking for. And, as I've pointed out, if things go south after 2 years, he can be bought out for next to nothing. Not a gigantic risk after all. You know what was a gigantic risk in NHL hockey? Paying a 37 year old 19 million over 3 years. Even if he is a solid player, so was Komarov until last year and he's only 31. So was Hainsey until halfway through the season. Marleau might not have even hit 40 points if Marner hadn't been switched with Komarov midway through the season. And there's almost know way of getting out of a 37 year old's contract unless they somehow go completely LTIR. Anything less than that and you are left with a $6.25 mil boat anchor on your cap there is absolutely no easy way to get out of. An extra mil a year for a 24 year old is nothing in comparison, and a $300K buyout cost for 4 years is miniscule. I say, if a 24 year old shows the leadership qualities and poise that Johnsson has shown, a professional org. like the Leafs should show in some way that they've noticed it and are willing to do what's reasonably generous to hold onto it. If not, then they're just the same cold corporate entity that kept a Leafs legend like Keon away for 30 years.

 

[Critical13]

it's funnier to see that people are willing to give johnsson a longer deal than william nylander.

Is it funny? Considering one will be paid double? Nylander's contract could hugely affect the outcome of this organization over the next 5 years - overpay and it will haunt us big time. Johnsson's deal would be similar or lower than Brown's...hurts if he sucks but far smaller impact.

 

[silverfish]

Is Bracco hurt or scratched?

Never mind, I forgot Google exists.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Lock Johnson up for four years+
I understand some people’s concerns of a possible risk, but this guy isn’t 19 it’s not like he’s completely unproven or has any sort of character concerns. He’s also very good defensively and plays bigger than his size and with heart. Even if his offense doesn’t translate he will still be effective (imo I think he’s got a good chance of being a 50 point good all around player)

 

[Fogelhund]

I'd lock Johnsson up for 4 years, but not at $2.5 million. That's ridiculous. IF he wants to sign for four years, I'd go $1.5 mil, but to be frank, he'd be stupid to take $1.5 or $2.5 at this point. It's in his best interest, to do a one year deal, and prove he deserves more than $2.5. We shall see what comes out of this though.

 

[Keon1963]

Is it funny? Considering one will be paid double? Nylander's contract could hugely affect the outcome of this organization over the next 5 years - overpay and it will haunt us big time. Johnsson's deal would be similar or lower than Brown's...hurts if he sucks but far smaller impact.

Your post is one of the best. Johnsson had a good (not spectacular) year in the AHL and looked good in the call up. Brown's contract is a good comparison. Give Johnsson a reasonable contract that ends with him still being an RFA (and hopefully not entitled to arbitration). Then if he has proven himself lock him up long term.

 

[BertCorbeau]

The funny thing is, a 4 year deal takes Johnsson right to UFA upon expiry which at that point he has a lot of leverage asking for big bucks (assuming he performs well). That defeats the purpose of using RFA status to keep player contracts in check.

At most a term of 3 years should be signed so that the Leafs retain control of his rights upon expiry. And at that point a 3 year deal no more than $1.25-$1.5 would make sense because AJ hasn't had sustained success in the NHL for a long period of time.

 

[Boutette]

The funny thing is, a 4 year deal takes Johnsson right to UFA upon expiry which at that point he has a lot of leverage asking for big bucks (assuming he performs well). That defeats the purpose of using RFA status to keep player contracts in check.

At most a term of 3 years should be signed so that the Leafs retain control of his rights upon expiry. And at that point a 3 year deal no more than $1.25-$1.5 would make sense because AJ hasn't had sustained success in the NHL for a long period of time.

I don't suppose you've been looking at what players who are arbitration eligible are paid. Check out Thomas Tatar as an example.