Projected Player Salaries under Rollback

Discussion in 'The Business of Hockey' started by Matt Gunning, Jul 25, 2005.

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  1. Matt Gunning

    Matt Gunning Registered User

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    I'm trying to get a handle on what players are likely to get paid in the new CBA market place. So what I did is take the 2003-2004 opening day payroll numbers and breakthem into catagories. Here is some projection of what we might see players after the 24% rollback is applied. Here is how I defined each grouping:

    1st line players (three most expensive forwards on all 30 teams)
    2nd line players (next three most expensive forwards)
    3rd line players (next three most expensive forwards)
    4th line players (next three most expensive forwards)
    1st D pair (two most expensive defensemen on all 30 teams)
    2nd D pair (next two most expensive defensemen )
    3rd D pair (next two most expensive defensemen)
    1st Goalie (most expensive goalie on all 30 teams)
    2nd Goalie (next goalie)
    Bench (three leftovers on the opening day roster, whichever position)

    (of course I realize that just because a player is PAID a lot doesn't mean he is necessarily the true #1 defenseman and so on. Great players under entry level contracts will be underpaid league wide, but that trend will remain true under the new CBA with its limits on entry level contracts and bonuses that can be paid out. So think of it as players who get paid 1st line money--whether they deserve it or not.)


    Average 2003-04 salary after 24% roll back.
    1st line Forward $3.5 million
    2nd line Forward $1.4 million
    3rd line Forward $0.8 million
    4th line Forward $0.53 million

    1st D pairing: $2.54 million
    2nd D pairing: $1.3 million
    3rd D pairing: $0.73 million

    1st Goalie: $2.55 million
    2nd Goalie: $0.8 million

    Bench Players: $0.4

    Average Total Team Payroll: $32.5

    This gives me some idea of how teams might choose to structure their payroll if the league average is around $31-32 per team. Smart teams will apply their 3rd and 4th lines, 3rd D pairing, backup Goalie and their bench near the league minimum of $.45 million so they can spend the rest elsewhere.

    This illustrates how certain teams are at a structural disadvantage. Let's take Detroit. They have three players (Draper, Maltby, Holmstrom) who have been 3rd or 4th liners who will make a total of $5 million (while an average team would only spend $2 on those spots. Then they have to pay Lidstrom the league max of $7.8 million. Now Detroit will spend the team maximum of $39 million while the budget above if for a team payroll of $32 but you can see that right off the bat that Lidstrom plus the grind line guys will consume most of the difference between a $32 payroll and a $39 payroll. Meaning that Detroit has to be just as careful with their dollars at other positions as your average team. (Personally I'd like to see Detroit go with Legace as their main goalie because he is cheap which would allow them some money to spend elsewhere.)
     
  2. matthew94

    matthew94 Registered User

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    Very nicely put together.....thanks for the guideline
     
  3. salty justice

    salty justice Registered User

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    Wow great research :clap:
     
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