I believe that next season, the Flames have a legitimate shot at collecting more than 110pts and could take the Pacific Division, with a bit of luck. I think the team is even in a better position than Edmonton, San Jose or Anaheim and that our roster as it currently stands has all the pieces necessary to take a leap and become a real powerhouse in the west. (Yes, I realise I'm jinxing it.)
OFFSEASON MOVES:
- Up until the trade deadline, the Flames' bottom three was Wideman, Jokipakka, and Bartkowski. Stone, Kulak and Hamonic is a world of difference, and considering the Flames were already a good shot suppression team, the influence of upgrading the worst half of our defense should push us even higher. I expect this team to give up very few chances next season.
- While I'm not entirely sure what we have in our goaltending tandem, it was critically apparent at the end of the last year that neither Elliott nor Johnson were starters or players you could have real success as an NHL team with. On one hand, rolling the dice yet again is troubling to say the least, but on the other hand, Mike Smith has proven he's a very capable starter even while playing on a perennially bad club, and Lack is only a few years removed from looking like one of the best young goaltenders in the league.
I think these two upgrades, as well as the fact that maybe the most important forward we lost this year was Alex Chiasson ought to mean the Flames have tangibly improved. Nonetheless, a few key things need to happen for the team to become the powerhouse I think it has a really good shot at being.
NECESSARY STEPS, IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:
- Micheal Ferland has to play like he did at the end of last year. For the Flames to have the sort of success I think they can, Ferland has to prove he's a top six player. Playing with Johnny and Mony will help, but I believe that much, if not all of his game is already there - it just requires consistency. The Flames currently lack a third guy who can rack up points on the top line, if Ferland can be that guy we're going to be in a much better place offensively.
- At least one of Bennett and Tkachuk needs to have a breakout year. Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk are the two Flames with the highest potentials on the roster - at least one of them needs to have a year where they put it all together. For Bennett, I think that specifically entails him playing on Backlund's wing, because he's not going to get the minutes, the deployment or the linemates on our third line to let him become an offensive force. Tkachuk is already close to being a 60-75pt guy and is certainly the better bet between the two of them to break out. I feel this in particular is non-negotiable. If the Flames want to compete, they at minimum one more top-line player.
- We need a few rookies to take the next step. There are still holes in the roster, which ought to be filled by Jankowski, Hathaway and either Kulak or Wotherspoon. While all these guys will receive sheltered deployment and are not key in the same way that the rest of our group's performance is, these guys, they still all need to show up to play.
- Rebound years on defense. Michael Stone played injured for much of the last year and it showed throughout his game. We don't need him to be a top-pairing guy again like he was with OEL in Arizona, but we do need Stone to play at least like a #4, regardless of whether he ends up with Brodie or a rookie. Giordano played an excellent all-around game last year, but I think as a guy who's proven in the past he can chip in points, we'll need to see more of that again to contend for the division title. Brodie I won't include - I think many of his struggles last year had to do with his D partner and that there really were few problems with his game altogether.
- Smith and Lack can't let us down. Mike Smith has played well even while on a nightmare of a team in Arizona. We need him to look like an average starter and to keep us in games - i.e., not what Elliott did last year. He can't be the latest casualty of the goalie graveyard out here. If he plays well and the defense keeps stopping shots from getting on goal, we will be well poised to win the division. Eddie Lack on the other hand needs to rethink his game and simply prove he's an NHL goaltender. There is a 150% chance Smith gets injured, and when that happens it's going to be up to Lack to not screw us. He has to be about as good as either Elliott or Johnson was, and personally I think he has the ability if he goes back to playing in the style he's most comfortable, as others have commented.
I think if the majority of the things listed above happen, the Flames ought to win the Pacific. If all of them happen, I see no reason the Flames can't have the first seed in the West.
