Series Discussion: First Round matchup Jets vs Wild

[White Out 902]

Its not a debate, its simply a fact. Of the 16 goals let in that series, I challenge you to show more than 3 goals that you would assess blame on Pavs.

I have done this exercise 3 times, and even the 3rd goal I assessed as Pavs fault, I was stretching it. Many of the goals were second or third rebounds to open players trailing the play, deflections with massive screens, and or odd man rushes.

I am happy that we have a legit starting goalie, and we have moved on from the Pavs era, but to many times he was an escape goat for a team that consistently played poorly in front of him.

Oh god. Just... just stop lol. Holy smokes.

 

[Jet]

Maurice already has healthy scratched Tanev recently

But, has Maurice (or will he in the playoffs) scratch BOTH Tanev and Hendricks?

I don't think so.

 

[Ducky10]

Yeah, I'm scared if we face a Boudreau team in the first round

Why? They're historical failures. Hope for a 7 game series where his teams are a whopping 1-7 in game sevens. His last season with the Ducks was his deepest playoff run, but I don't think his current team is as good as that one was.

 

[10Ducky10]

There should be more teams worried about meeting the Jets than vice versa.
I want to see a healthy team for the playoffs and I think it matters more than where we finish as long as we are in.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I agree. A healthy Jets will match anyone imo. I don’t care where we line up as long as we’re 100%

 

[behemolari]

Wild will be easy if we face them first round. Dallas might be the challenging one of Colorado, Minnesota and Dallas.

Also, Minnesota has scored fewer goals and let in more than us.

What? No! There is no absolutely no reason to presume wild is easy one, they have been constantly threat at playoffs only to lose against best of teams like Chicago, Dallas, StLouis they have talented well structured team with lot of post season experience. I would say Wild has advantage agains Jets.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Oh god. Just... just stop lol. Holy smokes.

Or just carry on with your false narrative, facts do tend to kill a good story.

 

[Wolf357]

Minnesota..Road whiteout!
Honestly don’t care as to who we play as far as being matched..I think the Jets can dance with any team in the west..
Personally please no California teams...I have to get up for work at 4:00am the 9:30/10:00 start times with OT is freakin killer on me..
Plus in the first round the NHL will make some of our home games start at 9:30 as well...

 

[Dayofthedogs]

I've decided to compare 4th lines first. The image is taken from Bill Comeau's hockey tables using the SKATR table. If anyone wants to learn more about it please go to his site and read the relevant glossaries.

All stats are from corsica and are 5vs5 adjusted and per 60 or per hour. Example goals is individual G/60. REL means relative to team.

Forwards are compared to forwards and dmen to dmen. Therefore any forward registering above 50% (in the blue) ranks in the 'Top 6" in that particular category.

Blue and closer to 100 = good

Red and closer to 0 = bad

I have both projected 4 lines in this graph and decided to add Brandon Tanev for fun. I sorted the graph in order of CF% with best being furthest left and worst being furthest right.

View media item 1575
Thoughts:

Adam Lowry is a motherf***ing Beast!!! He ranks as a top 6 forward in every single catagory this season except both assist catagories and individual shots. If Lowry is able to return to form for the playoffs we are essentially adding a 2C scoring center with the defensive acumen of Patrice Bergeron to the line up. All 4 Jets have been buried in the Dzone for their starts and done very well spending most of the time in the Ozone. Joel Armia is really good too.

Basically the Jets probably 4th line annihilates the Wild 4th on paper.

Biggest surprise:

Andrew Copp has not been great. For a guy touted as an offensive Adam Lowry with upside he's performed like a mediocre Brandon Tanev.

Meanwhile it appears that a real case could be made for starting Brandon Tanev over Copp. Look at Tanev's penalty differential. With a powerplay like the Jets have this could be a real advantage for playing him ahead of Copp

 

[Peggy]

Minnesota is the only team (outside of Nash) that kind of worries me in the first round. I get a bad feeling for some reason. They are a very experienced team and I believe that could influence a first round matchup for a team where it’s “new to po’s”.

shouldn't the playoff experience part be more on the coach/management than the players?

Maurice has been in the playoffs and should know what to expect and prepare the players for that

obviously players need to experience it to, but really it should be on the coach
the guys have played a 60 minute game before. it's not like ufc where you're used to fighting 3 rounds and you're fighting 5


if the jets lose in the first round it's on the coach, not the players' lack of playoff experience

 

[Dayofthedogs]

shouldn't the playoff experience part be more on the coach/management than the players?

Maurice has been in the playoffs and should know what to expect and prepare the players for that

obviously players need to experience it to, but really it should be on the coach
the guys have played a 60 minute game before. it's not like ufc where you're used to fighting 3 rounds and you're fighting 5


if the jets lose in the first round it's on the coach, not the players' lack of playoff experience

You've already determined who's at fault for a (potential) first round loss without a game being played.... rich.

 

[DashingDane]

shouldn't the playoff experience part be more on the coach/management than the players?

Maurice has been in the playoffs and should know what to expect and prepare the players for that

obviously players need to experience it to, but really it should be on the coach
the guys have played a 60 minute game before. it's not like ufc where you're used to fighting 3 rounds and you're fighting 5


if the jets lose in the first round it's on the coach, not the players' lack of playoff experience

Yes and no imo. A coach needs to prepare them as much as possible but there will be nerves regardless. The majority of the team has never played NHL PO hockey and the rest got swept last time they were there. I think a very experienced team could take advantage of that especially in the 1st round.

If they loose round one it will be on everybody. Not just the coach...

 

[Analyst365]

 

[Peggy]

You've already determined who's at fault for a (potential) first round loss without a game being played.... rich.

absolutely. I already believe in this roster.
if helle plays bad than it's on helle
but if it's 3on3 OT and you play buff for 5 minutes and buff makes a bad play than it's on Maurice
and yes I'm aware there's no 3 on 3, but I think you get my point

this roster is better than any team in the central besides Nashville
so I believe it'll be up to the coaching to make those adjustments

so if the jets lose in the first round who would be favourites to who'm ever they play it would be an upset and would be on the coaches decisions

Yes and no imo. A coach needs to prepare them as much as possible but there will be nerves regardless. The majority of the team has never played NHL PO hockey and the rest got swept last time they were there. I think a very experienced team could take advantage of that especially in the 1st round.

If they loose round one it will be on everybody. Not just the coach...

I'll only agree with that on the very first game .
most players have already dealt with high stakes in tournaments during their junior years

this would Maurices 2nd time in the playoffs with the jets and another first round exit.
you can't afford to not put it on him

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Now the third lines

View media item 1577
Quick thought:

Matty P is amazing at hockey. He's the class of this group, registering as a top line forward in just about every category. Nino has also been very good for the Wild. The Jets once again outpace the Wild pretty much across the board. Bryan Little and Roslo have had their weaknesses but generally rank as top 6 forwards.

Joel Armia has a case to move up to the third line over Roslo with a healthy lineup.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

absolutely. I already believe in this roster.
if helle plays bad than it's on helle
but if it's 3on3 OT and you play buff for 5 minutes and buff makes a bad play than it's on Maurice
and yes I'm aware there's no 3 on 3, but I think you get my point

this roster is better than any team in the central besides Nashville
so I believe it'll be up to the coaching to make those adjustments

so if the jets lose in the first round who would be favourites to who'm ever they play it would be an upset and would be on the coaches decisions



I'll only agree with that on the very first game .
most players have already dealt with high stakes in tournaments during their junior years

this would Maurices 2nd time in the playoffs with the jets and another first round exit.
you can't afford to not put it on him

What happens if there are key injuries? What if Dubnyk hangs a .950 on the Jets despite outclassing them? The wild aren't slouches if you haven't been paying attention

 

[Dayofthedogs]

2nd lines

View media item 1579
Quick Thoughts:

Wow. If you want to get the most out of Laine, playing with these 2 guys is gonna help! Both Ehlers and Stastny make up for Laine's shortcomings. As a hole once again these 3 outclass their Wild counterparts.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

1st lines

View media item 1581
Quick Thoughts:

Finally the Wild hold an edge. It's clear their top line is a very good group of players and they have gotten dumped in the dzone and played a high quality of competition. The problem for the Wild will be the fact that they can probably only expect this line to outproduce their Jets counterparts. Odds are it wont be enough as the Jets hold the advantage in the Forward department.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Up to 58% now

 

[HPsauce]

Now it's looking like Colorado is the hot team, and will catch Minne..

Anyone else worried about playing MacKinnon in a 7 game series?

 

[Eyeseeing]

Now it's looking like Colorado is the hot team, and will catch Minne..

Anyone else worried about playing MacKinnon in a 7 game series?

Yes
Id much rather play the Wild than the Avs with Nate

 

[Aavco Cup]

Not worried about playing any team in the entire NHL.

What worries me is team health and keeping players in the lineup

 

[Howard Chuck]

Not worried about playing any team in the entire NHL.

What worries me is team health and keeping players in the lineup

This pretty much sums up my thoughts on this as well.

 

[winnipegger]

The reason I think the Jets stand a good chance of winning the first round: All of Colorado, Minny and Dallas (most likely matchups) are 1 line teams. The Jets real strength is depth. If Lowry and Scheifele are healthy it's really not even close. Send out Adam Lowry to deal with the other teams best and the Jets other 3 lines will eat the other team alive.

 

[Aavco Cup]