Series Discussion: First Round matchup Jets vs Wild

Who will win this series?


  • Total voters
    215

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
Inspired by my new found technological abilities and Zhammy's incredible GDT work I have decided to use my powers for the enrichment of the HF Jets community.

I will be following up this initial post with comprehensive analysis of both teams in head to head categories followed by in depth player vs player stats for the whole projected playoff line ups.

I plan on using Corsica, hockey-reference and Bill Comeau's sites for reference. If anyone has any other tools or sites to help me out please pass them along.

I'll be using normal stats, Fancy stats, homely stats and any other stats I can find in an effort to leave no stone left unturned to provide the most descriptive analysis possible.

Analysis will begin in the next 48 hours and expect another thread for a potential Stars Matchup!
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
I hope all your work isn’t for naught. There’s still a 45% chance we play someone other than the Wild in the first rd

3_C53042_F-_EA4_F-4130-_BB53-8_C7_DB6_FF20_A1.png
 
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DudeWhereIsMakar

Bergevin sent me an offer sheet
Apr 25, 2014
15,596
6,618
Winnipeg
Wild will be easy if we face them first round. Dallas might be the challenging one of Colorado, Minnesota and Dallas.

Also, Minnesota has scored fewer goals and let in more than us.
 

HPsauce

Registered User
Jul 3, 2011
2,088
1,358
Winnipeg
I have a feeling that Minnesota will be a hard match up for us. I can see that series going 6 or 7 games.

I give the edge to the Jets, just more fire power.

If you look at the final games for Dallas and Minne, it's hard to imagine Dallas not passing Minne.

They also play 2 games against each out down the stretch so it'll likely come down to those games to decide who finishes 3rd.
 
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Ducky10

Searching for Mark Scheifele
Nov 14, 2014
19,809
31,386
The Jets success will come down to their ability to dictate playing their game. If they do that, it doesn't matter who they play.

Last time in they tried to beat the Ducks at their game and along with shitty goaltending it cost them. I don't expect they will repeat that regardless of opponent. They've played a consistent style all year, it's what they'll bring.
 

White Out 902

I'm usually right.
Aug 17, 2017
3,518
6,358
Cape Breton Island
The Jets success will come down to their ability to dictate playing their game. If they do that, it doesn't matter who they play.

Last time in they tried to beat the Ducks at their game and along with ****ty goaltending it cost them. I don't expect they will repeat that regardless of opponent. They've played a consistent style all year, it's what they'll bring.

I thought we did really well against Anaheim actually. It's just that pavelec coughed up a third period lead in every single freaking game
 
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Ducky10

Searching for Mark Scheifele
Nov 14, 2014
19,809
31,386
I thought we did really well against Anaheim actually. It's just that pavelec coughed up a third period lead in every single freaking game
True, mentioned that. I thought they tried a bit too hard to bang with them though, they didn't try to play with much skill. This team is much more skilled, I hope they stick to what they've been doing is all.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
Winnipeg Jets
O'Connor - Chef - Wheels
Ehlers - Nuts - Laine
Matty P - Little - Roslo

Copp - Lowry - Armia

JoMo - Trouba
Toby - Buff
Kuli - Myers


Helle
Mase


Minnesota Wild
Zucker - Stall - Granny
Parise - Koivu - Coyle
Nino - Ek - Ennis
Winnik - Cullen - Fugly


Sutter - Spurg
Brodin - Dumb
Olaf - Prosser

Dubnyk

Stalock



*Season series 3-1 Jets!!

/////////Winnipeg Jets ///Minnesota Wild


record//////41 -18- 9 ////////39- 23- 7
home ///////27 -7- 2 /////////24 -5- 6
road ///////17 -11- 7/////////15 -18- 1

points % .669 (5th) .616 (7th)

GPG 3.31 (4th) 3.09 (10th)

GAA 2.60 (5th) 2.84 (13th)

PP 24.5% (2nd) 21.4% (9th)

PK 82.9% (6th) 79.9 (17th)

EVGF 163 (7th) 164 (6th)

EVGA 133 (4th) 144 (12th)


Fancy

5 vs 5 aggregate adjusted stats via Corsica

Winnipeg Jets Minnesota Wild

CF/60
50.85 (15th) 46.11 (28th)

CA/60 47.6 (4th) 50.3 (17th)

CF% 51.65 (9th) 47.71 (26th)

GF% 54.55 (4th) 52.47 (11th)

xGF% 52.43 (8th) 54.1 (1st)

Pen Diff -14 (24th) -17 (26th)

Sh% 8.64 (6th) 8.35 (8th)

SV% 92.46 (15th) 92.62 (14th)

PDO 101.1 (7th) 100.97 (8th)



In summary through a quick look at some numbers we see the jets hold a decided advantage in almost all areas of normal stats GPG, GAA, PP, PK etc. If The Jets aren't ahead they are right behind the Wild with a number of decided advantages for the Jets in special teams where The Jets 2nd ranked PP goes against The Wilds 17th ranked PK.

Interestingly the only area The Wild have a decided advantage over The Jets is corsica's xGF% (expected goals for percentage 5vs5 adjusted) model which has The Wild as the number 1 team in the league.

Looks good for The Jets but maybe not quite as good as I initially thought.
 
Last edited:

DashingDane

Paul Maurice <3
Dec 16, 2014
3,359
5,102
Los Angeles
Minnesota is the only team (outside of Nash) that kind of worries me in the first round. I get a bad feeling for some reason. They are a very experienced team and I believe that could influence a first round matchup for a team where it’s “new to po’s”.
 
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MrBoJangelz71

Registered User
Jan 14, 2014
4,948
5,987
I thought we did really well against Anaheim actually. It's just that pavelec coughed up a third period lead in every single freaking game

Not that I want to get into a pavs debate, but your narrative on Pavs coughing up the lead in the 3rd of every game of the Ducks series, is a false narrative.

I’ve gone over the goals, one by one, and Pavs was at fault for 3 of the goals, the rest he was hung out to dry.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
What does the second graph mean?

Xgoals (expected goals). Its a more in depth Corsi that takes into account shot location and other factors. I've heard corsica's model has some flaws and I believe that's where the data comes from for this graph.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
Why do we care about our rolling ten game averages with so many key players out?It doesn't really tell us much if we get healthy. Isn't the size of our sick bay the most important thing?
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
2,113
1,038
Winnipeg
Why do we care about our rolling ten game averages with so many key players out?It doesn't really tell us much if we get healthy. Isn't the size of our sick bay the most important thing?

I believe getting healthy will provide a huge boost. For me the most interesting thing was how much the wild have been improving since Christmas and less to do with us.

I'd expect Lowry and Trouba to specifically go a long way to improving shot metrics
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
I believe getting healthy will provide a huge boost. For me the most interesting thing was how much the wild have been improving since Christmas and less to do with us.

I'd expect Lowry and Trouba to specifically go a long way to improving shot metrics

The Wild started the year very injured to begin the year, they also had cap issues so they had to send everyone back to Iowa on days off. They couldn't even have full practices. Remember the practice weeks teams got in October? That didn't help the Wild much. So that was part of it. I follow Russo on twitter. So here's a fun Wild fact. Check out the Wild record since they claimed Nate Prosser on waivers. And check out the Blues record since then....it's like trading places.
 

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