PL - Round 13

[Cassano]

Iwobi in for Ozil? I would have gone with the same lineup as last week, Wenger has his reasons I suppose...

He's sick

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Tarkowski you idiot.

 

[bluesfan94]

Just when I was ready to complain about arsenal, we get a pen and win. Brilliant.

 

[Cassano]

Just when I was ready to complain about arsenal, we get a pen and win. Brilliant.

The goat Ramsey drew it. He was horrendous all game.

 

[bluesfan94]

The goat Ramsey drew it. He was horrendous all game.

Ramsey hasnt looked good recently but hey, I’ll take the penalty.

 

[Evilo]

Don't look now, but 6th place bound, badly coached Arsenal are top 4, Spurs and Pool aren't.
One point off 3rd too.

 

[Cassano]

Ramsey hasnt looked good recently but hey, I’ll take the penalty.

The team has been pretty poor all season, yet here they are ahead of early contenders in Spurs and Liverpool.

 

[bluesfan94]

The team has been pretty poor all season, yet here they are ahead of early contenders in Spurs and Liverpool.

Incredible given that I was told that arsenal would be struggling against Everton to finish sixth and Liverpool and Spurs would be challenging for the title.

 

[YNWA14]

Don't look now, but 6th place bound, badly coached Arsenal are top 4, Spurs and Pool aren't.
One point off 3rd too.

They've been incredibly lucky. They're not going anywhere and personally I can't wait to play them again.

 

[hatterson]

The team has been pretty poor all season, yet here they are ahead of early contenders in Spurs and Liverpool.

Yea I’m not sure how to read that.

On one hand they’ve relied on later winners, coming from behind, and now, stoppage time penalties and those things are hard to keep going long term. On the other, they’ve not been playing well but are getting points so if their form improves they could easily go on a good run.

 

[Evilo]

They've been incredibly lucky. They're not going anywhere and personally I can't wait to play them again.

Arsenal = lucky
Liverpool = unlucky, cheated by the refs.

Did I get it right?

 

[hatterson]

Arsenal = lucky
Liverpool = unlucky, cheated by the refs.

Did I get it right?

Everyone knows Liverpool have been cheated out of at least 15 points so far.

 

[Cassano]

Yea I’m not sure how to read that.

On one hand they’ve relied on later winners, coming from behind, and now, stoppage time penalties and those things are hard to keep going long term. On the other, they’ve not been playing well but are getting points so if their form improves they could easily go on a good run.

Ozil's only played in about half their games as well.

That's sort of the hope I'm clinging on to.

 

[Evilo]

Everyone knows Liverpool have been cheated out of at least 15 points so far.

Yeah, even though reffing was in their favor yesterday.

 

[Cassano]

Arsenal are 4th in xGF, XGA and xPts, so I'm not sure what exactly makes them 'lucky'.

 

[hatterson]

Arsenal are 4th in xGF, XGA and xPts, so I'm not sure what exactly makes them 'lucky'.

Without looking at the stats I’d guess city leads all those, United is 2nd, Chelsea third, arsenal 4th, Liverpool 5th, then Spurs.

That close?

Edit: never mind I forgot xga doesnt like to include the quality of the keeper so will always undersell United.

 

[Savant]

I mean this is what Arsenal does. They always SEEM like they are doing worse than they are, but they find a way to score late and take care of business against teams they should be outright beating. Liverpool does not. I don’t think Liverpool gets top 4 unless they can sign Van Dijk in January and even then it’s going to be difficult. There are two spots for Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool & Tottenham, which are all very good teams.

 

[Savant]

Everyone knows Liverpool have been cheated out of at least 15 points so far.

I don’t think most Liverpool fans feel this way.

 

[Cassano]

Without looking at the stats I’d guess city leads all those, United is 2nd, Chelsea third, arsenal 4th, Liverpool 5th, then Spurs.

That close?

City
Liverpool
Spurs
Arsenal
Man Utd
Chelsea

TBF this model has Liverpool's expected points only 4 below City which is nuts.

 

[Savant]

Yeah, even though reffing was in their favor yesterday.

Was it?

I thought it was pretty down the middle except that Michael Oliver told Klopp he wasn’t allowed to make the Lallana sub because it would have been “time wasting”, source: Willian spares Chelsea another disaster at Anfield, even though they badly needed fresh legs. I don’t think the ref was bad yesterday or tilted one way.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

City
Liverpool
Spurs
Arsenal
Man Utd
Chelsea

TBF this model has Liverpool's expected points only 4 below City which is nuts.

I'm not questioning your stats, I just want to know where you found them so I can dive into them myself.

 

[hatterson]

I don’t think most Liverpool fans feel this way.

I know, I was being sarcastic. Most of you are pretty sane, there’s really only one that full on drinks the coolaide.

 

[Savant]

City
Liverpool
Spurs
Arsenal
Man Utd
Chelsea

TBF this model has Liverpool's expected points only 4 below City which is nuts.

I mean, if you take the six points from throwing away the lead against Watford, Newcastle and Chelsea that still only gets them to 6 below (in the actual table). I wouldn’t say that Liverpool are unlucky to be where they are, but isn’t that essentially what that model is suggesting according to your numbers?

 

[Cassano]

I'm not questioning your stats, I just want to know where you found them so I can dive into them myself.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2017/2018 season | Understat.com

 

[Savant]

I know, I was being sarcastic. Most of you are pretty sane, there’s really only one that full on drinks the coolaide.

They don’t spell it Kool-Aid in Toronto?