Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread

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Dipsy Doodle

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That's what happens when you waste two relatively high picks on guys who can't even score a goal in their final junior season.

Then again, we all know what happened when many thought we had arguably the best defense pipeline in the league and nothing in the way of forwards.

Watch Bellerive and Sprong bomb, and Lauzon and Hall turn into top 4 guys.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Then again, we all know what happened when many thought we had arguably the best defense pipeline in the league and nothing in the way of forwards.

Watch Bellerive and Sprong bomb, and Lauzon and Hall turn into top 4 guys.

The former two are possible, the latter two I'd almost bet my life savings won't happen.

Actually, Lauzon's got an outside shot at becoming a Dumoulin type. I'd bet my life savings Connor Hall never becomes a regular top four guy in the NHL.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Yeah it'd be an epic shock if Hall became anything with those numbers.

With Hall, it goes well beyond the numbers, too. With Lauzon, it's more numbers since he seems to have some of the requisite "tools" to be a player in the NHL. Good skater, decent ability to outlet the puck, etc. He just doesn't seem to have much offensive upside to put up any points.

With Hall, it's like not only are the numbers not there, but his "tools" seem to be lacking other than "size". Not a great skater, not a good passer, handles the puck like it's a rubber ball, etc.
 

Empoleon8771

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From what I've seen with Lauzon, I wouldn't say he doesn't have a chance at becoming a Dumoulin type of defensemen. I certainly don't think it's impossible for him to become a NHLer. Hall...yeah. Stat watching isn't everything of course, but yeah.
 

Brandinho

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From what I've seen with Lauzon, I wouldn't say he doesn't have a chance at becoming a Dumoulin type of defensemen. I certainly don't think it's impossible for him to become a NHLer. Hall...yeah. Stat watching isn't everything of course, but yeah.

It's possible because everyone develops at a different pace, but Dumoulin never had any issues producing respectable point totals.

0.68 PPG in college
0.41 PPG in the AHL (regular season)
0.61 PPG in the AHL (playoffs)

Lauzon's at 0.24 PPG in the Q regular season and 0.28 PPG in the Q playoffs. Dumoulin seems like he'd be the absolute best case, practically a dream, scenario for Lauzon at this point.

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever produced that poorly in juniors and gone on to be a respectable NHL'er? I could huff gasoline for a week and I still don't think I could be optimistic after seeing those numbers.
 

Speaking Moistly

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It's possible because everyone develops at a different pace, but Dumoulin never had any issues producing respectable point totals.

0.68 PPG in college
0.41 PPG in the AHL (regular season)
0.61 PPG in the AHL (playoffs)

Lauzon's at 0.24 PPG in the Q regular season and 0.28 PPG in the Q playoffs. Dumoulin seems like he'd be the absolute best case, practically a dream, scenario for Lauzon at this point.

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever produced that poorly in juniors and gone on to be a respectable NHL'er? I could huff gasoline for a week and I still don't think I could be optimistic after seeing those numbers.

It took Muzzin and Tanev some time to produce well in juniors.
 

Brandinho

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It took Muzzin and Tanev some time to produce well in juniors.

I knew someone would bring up Muzzin, but even he produced at a 0.31 PPG pace throughout his junior career (excluding his overage season) and showed a steady year to year progression (4 in 37 to 18 in 67 to 29 in 62). I'm not sure how to evaluate Tanev given that he played his entire junior career in a provincial league, so I can't really argue for or against that as an example.

Muzzin is basically the extreme low end and even he outproduced Lauzon by a non-negligible margin.
 

Speaking Moistly

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I knew someone would bring up Muzzin, but even he produced at a 0.31 PPG pace throughout his junior career (excluding his overage season) and showed a steady year to year progression (4 in 37 to 18 in 67 to 29 in 62). I'm not sure how to evaluate Tanev given that he played his entire junior career in a provincial league, so I can't really argue for or against that as an example.

Muzzin is basically the extreme low end and even he outproduced Lauzon by a non-negligible margin.

Lauzon showed improvement before this year and there's the injury factor this season. I think it was most likely a dumb "but muh grit!" pick but it's happened. The problem is you don't count on it happening over picking someone who did produce well.

Lauzon in his draft season put up 0.33ppg.
Weber had a 0.26ppg in his draft season
Muzzin had 0.11ppg in his draft season and 0.27ppg in his D+1 season

I'm sure there are more but I'm also sure they pale in comparison to the number of players who produced well in lower levels and made it.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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It's possible because everyone develops at a different pace, but Dumoulin never had any issues producing respectable point totals.

0.68 PPG in college
0.41 PPG in the AHL (regular season)
0.61 PPG in the AHL (playoffs)

Lauzon's at 0.24 PPG in the Q regular season and 0.28 PPG in the Q playoffs. Dumoulin seems like he'd be the absolute best case, practically a dream, scenario for Lauzon at this point.

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever produced that poorly in juniors and gone on to be a respectable NHL'er? I could huff gasoline for a week and I still don't think I could be optimistic after seeing those numbers.

Marc Methot is the only guy I can think of who basically never produced in junior even in his final year, and still went on to have a solid career as a top four defender.

Lauzon's essentially going to have to be a rare exception who never scored at a decent pace in junior even in his final year to be a regular NHLer.
 

bambamcam4ever

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It's possible because everyone develops at a different pace, but Dumoulin never had any issues producing respectable point totals.

0.68 PPG in college
0.41 PPG in the AHL (regular season)
0.61 PPG in the AHL (playoffs)

Lauzon's at 0.24 PPG in the Q regular season and 0.28 PPG in the Q playoffs. Dumoulin seems like he'd be the absolute best case, practically a dream, scenario for Lauzon at this point.

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever produced that poorly in juniors and gone on to be a respectable NHL'er? I could huff gasoline for a week and I still don't think I could be optimistic after seeing those numbers.
Engelland?
 

Peat

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How high are the chances of Bellerive making the team next year? I'm completely clueless as to where a 90 point D+1 season normally puts forwards on the curve. I guess our depth and tendency to go slow pushes the odds down, but I don't think we're so deep that a big performance in camp mightn't do the trick.

I just don't know how likely that sort of performance is from 90 point CHL forwards. Like 5%, 10%? 1%?
 
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AverageJoeFan

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How high are the chances of Bellerive making the team next year? I'm completely clueless as to where a 90 point D+1 season normally puts forwards on the curve. I guess our depth and tendency to go slow pushes the odds down, but I don't think we're so deep that a big performance in camp mightn't do the trick.

I just don't know how likely that sort of performance is from 90 point CHL forwards. Like 5%, 10%? 1%?
Great question. He is on a fairly bad team, but each year he has gotten stronger. Turns 19 in May. It seems he is tired of losing since he got a game misconduct at the end of the 7th loss in a row.
Is there a chance he will/would play at WBS next year? Hope someone more knowledgeable can address this.
 

Empoleon8771

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The Penguins already have way too many forwards that need to be on the NHL roster for next year and Bellerive can't be sent down to the AHL. I don't see any reasonable situation where he's not back in the WHL next year. The Penguins have all of these guys either under control or under contract for next year:

Guentzel-Crosby-Sprong
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Rust-Brassard-Kessel
ZAR-Sheahan-Simon
Sheary

There's just not a spot here.
 
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AverageJoeFan

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The Penguins already have way too many forwards that need to be on the NHL roster for next year and Bellerive can't be sent down to the AHL. I don't see any reasonable situation where he's not back in the WHL next year. The Penguins have all of these guys either under control or under contract for next year:

Guentzel-Crosby-Sprong
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Rust-Brassard-Kessel
ZAR-Sheahan-Simon
Sheary

There's just not a spot here.
Ahh so he can't play at WBS. Well, yeah then I would assume he stays in WHL.
 

AverageJoeFan

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The fact this is even a question for a guy who went undrafted a year ago is impressive, though...I just worry that we may be getting our hopes a little too high on him because of how shallow the prospect pool is.

I haven't looked for any video yet on him and it appears he is most/if not all of the OHfense there. Kinda like Sprong at a similar level was.

EDIT:I watched some video on YouTube and he looks decent. Really nice wrist shot and placement. Goes to the net although size wise not a big guy by any means. Quick, but not blinding speed. Pretty strong on the puck in general. Pretty amazing this guy was undrafted. Would be interesting to see if he has another level yet so that he could move up. Time will tell I guess.
 
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Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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The Penguins already have way too many forwards that need to be on the NHL roster for next year and Bellerive can't be sent down to the AHL. I don't see any reasonable situation where he's not back in the WHL next year. The Penguins have all of these guys either under control or under contract for next year:

Guentzel-Crosby-Sprong
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Rust-Brassard-Kessel
ZAR-Sheahan-Simon
Sheary

There's just not a spot here.

Even if he comes in and looks flat out better than 3 or 4 of those guys? I appreciate that would be a hell of a thing which is why I'm putting low odds on it, but actually impossible?

(Also Kuhnhackl should be there/but we should expect some of them to go/but not the point I guess)

And to answer Big's point - maybe we are getting too high on him. But this is a question about possibility, not talking up the possibility or trying to create an expectation; if anything, I'm trying to gauge just how high we should be on him. 90 points sounds impressive, but it is only junior.
 

Empoleon8771

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Even if he comes in and looks flat out better than 3 or 4 of those guys? I appreciate that would be a hell of a thing which is why I'm putting low odds on it, but actually impossible?

Yeah, even if he's better than 3 or 4 of those guys, I think he'll be sent back to the WHL. Of the players listed there, only ZAR is waiver exempt, all of Simon, Sheary and Sprong require waivers to be sent down to the AHL next year. There just isn't a spot for him, you have 2 prospects that have to be in the NHL due to waiver status (Sprong and Simon) and one prospect who has earned the right to stay in the NHL (ZAR).
 

AverageJoeFan

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Feb 15, 2018
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Yeah, even if he's better than 3 or 4 of those guys, I think he'll be sent back to the WHL. Of the players listed there, only ZAR is waiver exempt, all of Simon, Sheary and Sprong require waivers to be sent down to the AHL next year. There just isn't a spot for him, you have 2 prospects that have to be in the NHL due to waiver status (Sprong and Simon) and one prospect who has earned the right to stay in the NHL (ZAR).
I guess Sheary is the wildcard? Even if he(Sheary) is moved I think your point is well taken. Just a shame he(Bellerive) couldn't play with WBS as opposed to being stuck in the WHL.
 

The Old Master

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Yeah, even if he's better than 3 or 4 of those guys, I think he'll be sent back to the WHL. Of the players listed there, only ZAR is waiver exempt, all of Simon, Sheary and Sprong require waivers to be sent down to the AHL next year. There just isn't a spot for him, you have 2 prospects that have to be in the NHL due to waiver status (Sprong and Simon) and one prospect who has earned the right to stay in the NHL (ZAR).
if all things stay the same ....I agree. but there could be some changes coming at the draft. stay flexible my friend.
 
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