Phil Kessel. Trade Watch On? | He's Literally Frozen

[Gary Nylund]

Trading away your future for a one-time shot is exactly what Leafs fans are mad about that the Leafs have done...over and over again. I just don't think Nashville is a legitimate contender this year. Even with Kessel, I don't think they have enough up-front and virtually no real playoff experience from that team as a group together.

The Franson part- I meant that is better for Nashville and they may consider it compared to, Kessel for Jones and a 1st straight up, which I don't believe they would do. On the Toronto side, it is basically Kessel for Jones and Franson for a late 1st. I do think though that if Jones gets traded, it will be for a young centre and a D and not a winger. I think they might be more interested in Kadri + or Nylander+ for Jones than Kessel if they were dealing with the Leafs.

Kessel is in his prime. Trading Jones for Kessel makes them much better today and it will likely be 4 to 5 years before Kessel starts to decline and Jones > Kessel. I'd say that trade increases their chances of winning a cup in the next 5 years without question. I know they may be hard to see them as a contender as they've sort of come out of nowhere but still, look at the standings, look at their goal differential and you can't help but be impressed. If I was them I wouldn't go all-in hoping to win this year specifically but I see no reason they can't contend for the next few years with the team they have and Kessel makes them a lot better.

Can't believe the overvalued/undervalued model where Jones and Kessel is concerned as potential exchange. If we were talking about Ekblad, I could see a closer approximation.

Kessel, IF he were to be traded, must return at least what was paid (Not a 2nd ovr. and a 9th ovr. the next year)in two firsts or approximate same value. But the FACT of the matter is, Kessel, as a forward acquired for his production and NOT his "two-way game", has increased his value.

One reservation remains in targeting picks...We generally screw them up.

But to think for a moment that value lacks to get Jones and a 1st (and more, thank you very much) for Kessel alone is a sure sign that our fanbase is in a collective depression, deforming worth in the opposite direction to which we typically mistaken.

We're rudderless, not talentless.

I'd be interested to hear what others think. Trades like this don't often happen so I think it's hard to set a price. I would guess though that the chances of Kessel bringing more than Jones and a 1st is zero and the chances of getting just Jones and a 1st are slim. Frankly, I'm not even sure that Jones for Kessel straight up isn't reasonable for us. I haven't seen Jones play much this year but from all accounts, he's developing very nicely and projects to be very good indeed.

When Kessel was traded, I don't know what Boston was expecting but I doubt very much it was a 2nd and 9th overall. Maybe more like 2 picks in the 10-20 range? What would you rather have, say a 10th overall this year and a 15th overall next year (for arguments sake) or Seth Jones? I think I take Jones.

If Nashville offers us Jones for Kessel tomorrow, who says no?

 

[1995]

Kessel is in his prime. Trading Jones for Kessel makes them much better today and it will likely be 4 to 5 years before Kessel starts to decline and Jones > Kessel. I'd say that trade increases their chances of winning a cup in the next 5 years without question. I know they may be hard to see them as a contender as they've sort of come out of nowhere but still, look at the standings, look at their goal differential and you can't help but be impressed. If I was them I wouldn't go all-in hoping to win this year specifically but I see no reason they can't contend for the next few years with the team they have and Kessel makes them a lot better.



I'd be interested to hear what others think. Trades like this don't often happen so I think it's hard to set a price. I would guess though that the chances of Kessel bringing more than Jones and a 1st is zero and the chances of getting just Jones and a 1st are slim. Frankly, I'm not even sure that Jones for Kessel straight up isn't reasonable for us. I haven't seen Jones play much this year but from all accounts, he's developing very nicely and projects to be very good indeed.

When Kessel was traded, I don't know what Boston was expecting but I doubt very much it was a 2nd and 9th overall. Maybe more like 2 picks in the 10-20 range? What would you rather have, say a 10th overall this year and a 15th overall next year (for arguments sake) or Seth Jones? I think I take Jones.

If Nashville offers us Jones for Kessel tomorrow, who says no?

I think Kessel has more value now than when we traded for him. I don't think Jones and a first is enough for Kessel. Teams that think they can win trade futures for immediate needs all the time.

Rick Wamsley and Rob Ramage for Brett Hull. Seems like a bad trade, but I'd make that move every day and twice on Sunday for a Stanley Cup.

 

[Tak7]

I think Kessel has more value now than when we traded for him. I don't think Jones and a first is enough for Kessel. Teams that think they can win trade futures for immediate needs all the time.

Rick Wamsley and Rob Ramage for Brett Hull. Seems like a bad trade, but I'd make that move every day and twice on Sunday for a Stanley Cup.

Yep.

He's only a proven goal scorer who ranks 3rd in the National Hockey League in points since 2011.

Oh, and he's on a very decent, affordable contract for someone who provides what he does.

If someone offered what the Leafs offered for Kessel then, now.. (two 1sts and a 2nd), I don't think it's a stretch to think that that's not enough for Kessel.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think Kessel has more value now than when we traded for him. I don't think Jones and a first is enough for Kessel. Teams that think they can win trade futures for immediate needs all the time.

Rick Wamsley and Rob Ramage for Brett Hull. Seems like a bad trade, but I'd make that move every day and twice on Sunday for a Stanley Cup.

So if offered Jones and a 1st for Kessel you say no?

Yep.

He's only a proven goal scorer who ranks 3rd in the National Hockey League in points since 2011.

Oh, and he's on a very decent, affordable contract for someone who provides what he does.

If someone offered what the Leafs offered for Kessel then, now.. (two 1sts and a 2nd), I don't think it's a stretch to think that that's not enough for Kessel.

Look at what the Bruins got for Seguin. Does Kessel have more value then Seguin did? If you had the choice of either Jones, or two 1sts and a 2nd from Nashville, which would you rather have?

Considering what Boston got for Seguin, I find it hard to believe we're going to get more than Jones and a 1st for Kessel. I'd be thrilled if I'm wrong but I just don't see it.

 

[studebaker17]

So if offered Jones and a 1st for Kessel you say no?



Look at what the Bruins got for Seguin. Does Kessel have more value then Seguin did? If you had the choice of either Jones, or two 1sts and a 2nd from Nashville, which would you rather have?

Considering what Boston got for Seguin, I find it hard to believe we're going to get more than Jones and a 1st for Kessel. I'd be thrilled if I'm wrong but I just don't see it.

Jones is more than a high pick though and looks to be developing as a quality player. No way i trade kessel for nashvilles 2 -1sts and a second. At the end of the day the leafs could very well end up getting nothing out of that deal for him. I'm thinking Jones value is probably same or a little bit higher than Kessels despite Kessels accomplishments just because of the position Jones plays is more important. Could see a trade like Kessel, fanson for jones , Stalberg and a 2nd rd pick. No way i see Kessel getting Jones + though for kessel.
Seguin deal doesn't make sense because he was more of a prospect at the time and hadn't broken out yet. If anything his situation compares to Jones more.

 

[Mess]

Kessel's contract is heavily front loaded and that would effect trading partners. IMO

It is structured as: 2014-15 $10 mil, $10 mil, $9 mil, $9 mil, $7 mil, $7 mil, $6 mil and $6 mil over the 8 seasons.

His average Cap is $8 mil.

What that means is that in years 1-4 his salary > Cap hit and that favours teams where money is not an issue and spend to the Cap ceiling, getting the advantage of the lower Cap hit.

However in years 5-8 his Cap > Salary which now favours budget teams that spend near the floor where they get to take a bigger Cap hit credit then they actually need to pay out in actual salary for talent.

People keep tossing out ideas like Seth Jones and 1st but that takes Nashville playing at the Cap floor (among the lowest in the NHL) with Jones on his ELC contract and adds big money Kessel making $10 mil in actually salary (one of the highest NHL players). So next year you have Kessel @ $10 mil - Jones @ $925k = +$9.25 mil in this hypothetical trade. That moves a team from the poverty line to the penthouse essentially as far as spending goes.

 

[RLF]

Kessel's contract is heavily front loaded and that would effect trading partners. IMO

It is structured as: 2014-15 $10 mil, $10 mil, $9 mil, $9 mil, $7 mil, $7 mil, $6 mil and $6 mil over the 8 seasons.

His average Cap is $8 mil.

What that means is that in years 1-4 his salary > Cap hit and that favours teams where money is not an issue and spend to the Cap ceiling, getting the advantage of the lower Cap hit.

However in years 5-8 his Cap > Salary which now favours budget teams that spend near the floor where they get to take a bigger Cap hit credit then they actually need to pay out in actual salary for talent.

People keep tossing out ideas like Seth Jones and 1st but that takes Nashville playing at the Cap floor (among the lowest in the NHL) with Jones on his ELC contract and adds big money Kessel making $10 mil in actually salary (one of the highest NHL players). So next year you have Kessel @ $10 mil - Jones @ $925k = +$9.25 mil in this hypothetical trade. That moves a team from the poverty line to the penthouse essentially as far as spending goes.

Cap/money issues don't seem to be taken into account very often.

Plus, Nashville has Neal and Smith on the RW, Forsberg and Wilson LW and Ribeiro, Fisher, Gaustad down the middle (all 34 years old) and Jarnkrok...where would you want to improve? Especially if you were trading your top D prospect(and a 1st?), who was a 4th overall pick, is now playing 23 mins a night since Ellis got hurt.

Nashville's needs are down the middle, now and for the future. A top 6 winger is the last thing they need if they are moving a top D.imo

 

[Mess]

Cap/money issues don't seem to be taken into account very often.

Nashville's needs are down the middle, now and for the future. A top 6 winger is the last thing they need if they are moving a top D.imo

Nashville has scored 141 GF and Leafs have scored 142 goals for. Anaheim at the top of the NHL standings has 143 GF.

As you pointed out a goal scoring winger is not a high priority need and if you combine my point of not only doing it for a top D man it also instantly adds nearly $10 mil in extra cost and a long term investment.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Jones is more than a high pick though and looks to be developing as a quality player. No way i trade kessel for nashvilles 2 -1sts and a second. At the end of the day the leafs could very well end up getting nothing out of that deal for him. I'm thinking Jones value is probably same or a little bit higher than Kessels despite Kessels accomplishments just because of the position Jones plays is more important. Could see a trade like Kessel, fanson for jones , Stalberg and a 2nd rd pick. No way i see Kessel getting Jones + though for kessel.
Seguin deal doesn't make sense because he was more of a prospect at the time and hadn't broken out yet. If anything his situation compares to Jones more.

I agree, Seguin isn't a great comparable, I can't really come up with a good comparable though so I just threw it out there.

I agree with everything else too. Jones >>> Nashvilles 2 1sts + whatever and we'd be lucky to get him. I'm sure Nashville doesn't want to give up Jones either and the only way they trade Jones for Kessel is if they think that's the trade that will win them the cup. Maybe if we included Franson in the deal that would help.

If this trade happened, I see it likely playing out like this:

0-5 years: Nashville improves greatly, and the Leafs get much worse. Near the end of the 5 years Jones closes the gap and possible Jones>Kessel after 5 years.

5-15 years: Jones in his prime is a perennial all-star, Kessel declines and his career possibly comes to an end while Jones is an all-star.

From the Leafs standpoint, if you're going for a rebuild this is the dream deal. IMO people who think a pile of draft picks is better are nuts and so are people who think Nashville needs to add a 1st or whatever else to get this deal done. If Kessel is traded it will be to a contender meaning the 1st round picks will be in the 20-30 range. If that's what people want I hope they enjoy the next versions of Biggs, Gauthier and Percy because that's what picks in that range represent.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Kessel's contract is heavily front loaded and that would effect trading partners. IMO

It is structured as: 2014-15 $10 mil, $10 mil, $9 mil, $9 mil, $7 mil, $7 mil, $6 mil and $6 mil over the 8 seasons.

His average Cap is $8 mil.

What that means is that in years 1-4 his salary > Cap hit and that favours teams where money is not an issue and spend to the Cap ceiling, getting the advantage of the lower Cap hit.

However in years 5-8 his Cap > Salary which now favours budget teams that spend near the floor where they get to take a bigger Cap hit credit then they actually need to pay out in actual salary for talent.

People keep tossing out ideas like Seth Jones and 1st but that takes Nashville playing at the Cap floor (among the lowest in the NHL) with Jones on his ELC contract and adds big money Kessel making $10 mil in actually salary (one of the highest NHL players). So next year you have Kessel @ $10 mil - Jones @ $925k = +$9.25 mil in this hypothetical trade. That moves a team from the poverty line to the penthouse essentially as far as spending goes.

Leafs would need to take Stalberg back to help facilitate a deal.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

Frozen would be an understatement for Phil at this point.

In the last 5 games, Luke Glendening has 3 times as many points as Phil Kessel. (2G/1A vs 0G/1A)

FYI, Glendening's career high is 9 points in a season.

 

[silentbob37*]

Nashville doesn't have a center, but David Poile is a guy who loves a speedy winger to build around. I could see him casting Kessel in a Peter Bondra type role in Nashville. They have Kessel, Neal, Forsberg is quite a bit of firepower, and they'd still have their twin towers in Weber and Josi, and Rinne in net. Kessel doesn't fit in our window, but for the next three or four years he's a nice fit in Nashville.

Jones is a great kid, but by the time he hits his prime, a guy like Weber might be past his prime.

Which is why they won't move him.

a Realistic deal with the Predators is something like - 2016 1st round pick and maybe 2nd or 3rd round pick, Sissons/Dougherty/Saros level/type prospect, a player like Jarnkrok and a salary dump like Stalberg or Nystrom

 

[Erndog]

Rangers let Marty walk this summer (or he retires).

Kessel for Chris Kreider + Anthony Duclair + ??

 

[Muston Atthews]

Chris Johnston ‏@reporterchris 53s54 seconds ago

Interesting stat highlighted by @Panger40: Phil Kessel scores a higher percentage of his goals inside 15-feet than any other NHL player.

--
Dirty areas etc.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I don't care what happens, I just want a forward to score, preferable Kessel.

 

[silentbob37*]

Chris Johnston ‏@reporterchris 53s54 seconds ago

Interesting stat highlighted by @Panger40: Phil Kessel scores a higher percentage of his goals inside 15-feet than any other NHL player.

--
Dirty areas etc.

Are you REALLY arguing that Kessel scores "dirty" goals rather then sniping while skating in from the wing and letting a quick wrister go from 15 or fewer feet away?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Are you REALLY arguing that Kessel scores "dirty" goals rather then sniping while skating in from the wing and letting a quick wrister go from 15 or fewer feet away?

Hey bob, did you ever accept the bet dropthemits proposed or have you changed your mind about insisting Jones won't be part of any Kessel trade?

 

[Muston Atthews]

Are you REALLY arguing that Kessel scores "dirty" goals rather then sniping while skating in from the wing and letting a quick wrister go from 15 or fewer feet away?

No, I merely posted a tweet. Are you making up arguments again? Yes, yes you are

 

[Suntouchable13]

People can defend Kessel all they want, but the way he has been going lately is unacceptable. Scoring 1 even strength goal in more than month? Is that satisfactory to you? I don't think he is trying very hard. If he was, he would certainly score more than he has lately.

 

[Gary Nylund]

People can defend Kessel all they want, but the way he has been going lately is unacceptable. Scoring 1 even strength goal in more than month? Is that satisfactory to you? I don't think he is trying very hard. If he was, he would certainly score more than he has lately.

Is it only Kessel you have a problem with? Do you think everyone else on the team is trying hard?

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

No, I merely posted a tweet. Are you making up arguments again? Yes, yes you are

You said dirty areas.

 

[Muston Atthews]

You said dirty areas.

I didn't provide any context with it. I was really just making a joke. I do find it an interesting stat thoigh

 

[pm88]

I wonder what he thinks about Canada and the media? I wouldn't be surprised if he asked for a trade just to get away from the constant media in his face all the time

 

[Deez Nuts]

Last week I was told I was a liar after I said Phil was scarfing down burgers at Harvey's! Proof is in the pics......

 

[sniper81]

Last week I was told I was a liar after I said Phil was scarfing down burgers at Harvey's! Proof is in the pics......

That's incredibly weird that you did that.....