Odds of us drafting a better goalie than Mrazek within the next 4 years is very, very low.
Shouldn't even be a priority for us, either. No need to waste high picks on it.
Let me run a scenario by you.
Over the next 24 months Mrazek plays exactly as he has to this point. Rather well, not elite, but in the 10-12 range of goaltenders. During that time the team experiences limited or no playoff success, likely not wining a playoff round in either of the two years.
Mrazek, his bridge contract expiring, will have a single RFA year remaining (IIRC) and will essentially demand a long term deal functionally indistinguishable from a UFA contract.
During this time frame, Jake Patterson has a pair of solid to strong AHL campaigns during which he cleanly passes McCollum for the starting job by that second season, if not before.
I don't think that scenario is by any means assured, but I do think it is a very likely one. If something in the nearby vicinity of that happens, I can guarantee you that a non-insignificant percentage of people here will rather see Patterson get the callup and Mrazek either traded or given a one year qualifying offer. No long term deal.
Guarantee it. 'Better' goalie is only one component of how this always plays out. Along with 'newer' and 'cheaper' it really is only 1 leg of the tripod upon which people base their positions on this sort of thing.
Any scenario where Holland makes a trade for a 'nice package' is pure fantasy. Homegrown NHL players only leave the Wings if they want to, Holland will never trade Howard or Mrazek - he lets the players make his decisions for him.
Jakub Kindl says hi.
Apparently most of the general managers in the NHL just have luckier coins than Ken Holland.
Or they are flipping quarters (early picks) while Holland flips pennies (late picks).
But you managed to imply that all forecasting is a coin flip, with no logic behind it,
Incorrect. I am saying what we do here, as novices who dabble, is a coin flip with no logic or expertise behind it...
yet you're also implying that the current roster is still very capable of competing...which shouldn't be determinable if it's all a coin flip.
... and that the people to whom this is a career, who have access to vastly more information both personal and secondarily communicated, have a far greater wealth of both experience, expertise and substance from which to draw their own conclusions.
Hey, I get it. People love to style themselves as super-informed proto-GMs. Fantasy sports exists, in part, because of this inherent belief. It's just, you know, not at all true. Even when we are 'right' and they are 'wrong', while we are certainly free to think it's because we really know our stuff and those silly GMs are just dopes, it's not really that at all.