Player Discussion Pavel Buchnevich Part V

[Thirty One]

Oh, and by the way, I equate the people writing Buch off to flat earthers.

Except in this case, the people writing off Buchnevich are the ones who have their eyes closed to the evidence.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

@eco's bones I'm not trying to imply that Buchnevich will reach Tarasenko's level of dominance with some patience and hope. I don't think he will. I'm simply proving that the absurd premise of Buchnevich being a disappointment or not being a good player is just that: absurd.

 

[duhmetreE]

One area I expected more from Buch is his shot. His accuracy needs work...

I feel he should have more than 14G...

 

[eco's bones]

@eco's bones I'm not trying to imply that Buchnevich will reach Tarasenko's level of dominance with some patience and hope. I don't think he will. I'm simply proving that the absurd premise of Buchnevich being a disappointment or not being a good player is just that: absurd.

The upper level skills as far as forwards in our organization pretty much for me come down to Buchnevich and Chytil. They're both developing players in my eyes still and what will take them (or not) to a legit 1st line player is a 1) supportive management and coaching staff 2) the other members of their team--particularly those they share the most ice time with and 3) their own determination. It's going to be hard for instance for Buchnevich become a 70 point player if his linemates are 50 point players. But also determination shouldn't be overlooked. Skill is one thing but the mentality to want to be the guy who leads the team is another. It's a quality the best players/forwards have. Kucherov, Tarasenko, Ovechkin--just speaking of examples of current Russian players all have that quality. I haven't seen a lot of this from Pavel--it's hard though coming to an established team with an established leadership---especially considering last year and his injuries. The Rangers cleaning house though.....there is an opportunity for him in the next couple years for him to stake his claim as a guy who can lead them offensively. So to me next year is important to him. He's a good player but whether or not he can be a great one that's the question.

One other note I kind of left Andersson out of the upper level skill department. I think that he could reach very high too but that's more because I think his skills aren't quite as high but he's got the determination thing figured out. That's a thing that's up to the player alone.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

One area I expected more from Buch is his shot. His accuracy needs work...

I feel he should have more than 14G...

Why? He's never been a big goal-scorer, and his SH% is right around average.

 

[haveandare]

That face-off play the other night was really, really smart. I'm a big fan of Buch and I was surprised by how heady that was.

 

[duhmetreE]

Why? He's never been a big goal-scorer, and his SH% is right around average.

He has missed on great opportunities..

Not looking for him to be Laine but when he's presented with an open net/golden opportunity he should be lighting the lamp.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I feel like most of the "finishing" labels people attach to players are made up. A player's finishing is reflected in their shooting percentage. Some players shoot a little higher than others due to being a better goal scorer, like Laine, but most players are all in the same range. The difference in goal-scoring usually comes from the amount of shots they take.

 

[duhmetreE]

I feel like most of the "finishing" labels people attach to players are made up. A player's finishing is reflected in their shooting percentage. Some players shoot a little higher than others due to being a better goal scorer, like Laine, but most players are all in the same range. The difference in goal-scoring usually comes from the amount of shots they take.

Well they're not made up. Watching Buch miss great chances is what I'm talking about. He has good /soft hands, he should be able to bury more chances that have been presented to him.

This isn't a simulation. A computer doesn't force him to miss an open side of the net because his shot percentage can't go above 13.

 

[romba]

Well they're not made up. Watching Buch miss great chances is what I'm talking about. He has good /soft hands, he should be able to bury more chances that have been presented to him.

This isn't a simulation. A computer doesn't force him to miss an open side of the net because his shot percentage can't go above 13.

You bring up simulations, how about this- in video games/sims players rarely miss open nets from prime real estate. In real life they do, unless you’re an elite scorer/finisher, and even then it happens occasionally. It’ll come, the game is still slowing down for him.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Well they're not made up. Watching Buch miss great chances is what I'm talking about. He has good /soft hands, he should be able to bury more chances that have been presented to him.

This isn't a simulation. A computer doesn't force him to miss an open side of the net because his shot percentage can't go above 13.

I think he has the talent to be Tarasenko/Kucherov level but strikes me as lacking confidence. Not only is he a very young guy learning a new language, living in a foreign country, but he has to deal with a coach who has scratched him for Tanner Glass, burried him on the 4th line, misuses him, one of the lower TOI despite being one of our leading scorers, etc. I think next season under a new coach, maybe even with Kovalchuk; we’ll really see him come into his own

 

[duhmetreE]

I'm saying, he could have more than 14goals. Eye-test; he has not capitalized on golden opportunities.

I don't understand why people get so defensive. This is not an attack, it's an observation. He has potential to grow. With more ice-time and some work he can put up more goals than he's shown.

 

[duhmetreE]

I think he has the talent to be Tarasenko/Kucherov level but strikes me as lacking confidence. Not only is he a very young guy learning a new language, living in a foreign country, but he has to deal with a coach who has scratched him for Tanner Glass, burried him on the 4th line, misuses him, one of the lower TOI despite being one of our leading scorers, etc. I think next season under a new coach, maybe even with Kovalchuk; we’ll really see him come into his own

He's busy worrying/thinking on how to play 'AV hockey'.

New coach, hard-work and Kovy... That's what I'm hoping for

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What you are saying doesn't make logical sense.

He's at 14 goals, but lets say your theory is right and he has 20 goals. He'd be shooting 16.6%, which isn't a sustainable number over the course of a career. So unless these chances that you think he isn't finishing aren't even registering as SOG, its your imagination.

 

[Thirty One]

What you are saying doesn't make logical sense.

He's at 14 goals, but lets say your theory is right and he has 20 goals. He'd be shooting 16.6%, which isn't a sustainable number over the course of a career. So unless these chances that you think he isn't finishing aren't even registering as SOG, its your imagination.

They don't register as shots on net if they miss the net, which has been happening a lot since he came back from his concussion.

 

[romba]

Like I said above, every player on every team misses open nets. @duhmetreE Are you certain that PB is missing more open nets than average? Or is that gut feeling? It’s very hard to prove that he is because that’s not tracked and if it were it would be a mess anyway. That’s pretty much what it boils down to for me anyway.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

They don't register as shots on net if they miss the net, which has been happening a lot since he came back from his concussion.

I said that, but is there any quantifiable data that says he misses the net more often than other shooters?

 

[romba]

They don't register as shots on net if they miss the net, which has been happening a lot since he came back from his concussion.

That’s a fair point. @Pavel Buchnevich I guess shots on goal divided by shot attempts before and after his concussion might kind of verify what you’re saying but the data set might be too small and is filled with noise. Might take a look later.

 

[duhmetreE]

What you are saying doesn't make logical sense.

He's at 14 goals, but lets say your theory is right and he has 20 goals. He'd be shooting 16.6%, which isn't a sustainable number over the course of a career. So unless these chances that you think he isn't finishing aren't even registering as SOG, its your imagination.

Yes, my eyes don't make logical sense. Watching him miss on great chances has to do with his shooting percentage. It all makes sense now.

He couldn't have 18 goals right now, his shooting percentage wouldn't allow it. There's no variables or deviations in hockey . 15% is impossible

 

[eco's bones]

I think he has the talent to be Tarasenko/Kucherov level but strikes me as lacking confidence. Not only is he a very young guy learning a new language, living in a foreign country, but he has to deal with a coach who has scratched him for Tanner Glass, burried him on the 4th line, misuses him, one of the lower TOI despite being one of our leading scorers, etc. I think next season under a new coach, maybe even with Kovalchuk; we’ll really see him come into his own

FFS--Buchnevich came out and said over the summer that after his back injury he wasn't 100% for the rest of the year--that the team was being careful with him. And Glass spent practically the entire year in Hartford. He got recalled with about a month left in the season and mainly because the team was getting knocked around.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes, my eyes don't make logical sense. Watching him miss on great chances has to do with his shooting percentage. It all makes sense now.

He couldn't have 18 goals right now, his shooting percentage wouldn't allow it. There's no variables or deviations in hockey .

I didn't say its impossible, I'm just saying its not sustainable. 18 goals would be 15%. How many players sustain 15%? There aren't many.

You seem to be making an awfully big deal about a few goals here or there, at most, that probably isn't even sustainable and would likely result in a goal-scoring drought that brings his SH% back to a normal number, anyway.

So unless you can prove he just flat out is missing the net a lot more often than other players, the point you are making seems to be nitpicking or maybe even not true.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The other problem is he is just not getting as many shots on goal as he was earlier in the season. Was well over 2 shots/game, and now he's below that number. Whether that's because he's just missing the net more or he's just not as involved in the play offensively would need to be looked into.

 

[duhmetreE]

I didn't say its impossible, I'm just saying its not sustainable. 18 goals would be 15%. How many players sustain 15%? There aren't many.

You seem to be making an awfully big deal about a few goals here or there, at most, that probably isn't even sustainable and would likely result in a goal-scoring drought that brings his SH% back to a normal number, anyway.

So unless you can prove he just flat out is missing the net a lot more often than other players, the point you are making seems to be nitpicking or maybe even not true.

I've seen him miss on some great opportunities. hence, " I FEEL HE SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN 14 GOALS "

I don't care about his shot % or what he could sustain over his career. This is strawman semantics.

 

[Thirty One]

I said that, but is there any quantifiable data that says he misses the net more often than other shooters?

None that I've seen. I don't think he does, even, I just feel like has lately.

 

[Zats Muccarello]

Once Buch gains confidence, a little more muscle mass and hits his stride he is going to be a scary player.