Patrik Laine Part II: The Man Wants All the Hats

[Matthews34]

Technically, the sky can't fall because it's like, you know... AIR!!! What can happen is ****ing Leafs fans everywhere peeing themselves with glee over this, and that just doesn't sit well with me. I eagerly await ill fortune befalling their shiny, perfect draft pick.

Why would I as a Leaf fan take pleasure in Laine's pain? I actually feel really bad for the kid. And that's just it he's a kid. I hope he can rebound from his innocent mistake which I'm sure he will and start filling the other teams nets again in no time. (just not Toronto's net )

 

[Kratti]

Mirtle: The key context the Matthews-Laine debate is missing...

Pretty much what i've been seeing too. Laine still needs to do a lot of adapting. A lot.

Agreed. All the advanced stats show that his ppg&gpg is due to regress at some point this season.

That said, one thing that's been bothering me with all the talk about the unsustainability of his current 20.2% shooting percentage is that it's really not unprecedented. Mike Bossy had a career shooting percentage of 21.2%.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Agreed. All the advanced stats show that his ppg&gpg is due to regress at some point this season.

That said, one thing that's been bothering me with all the talk about the unsustainability of his current 20.2% shooting percentage is that it's really not unprecedented. Mike Bossy had a career shooting percentage of 21.2%.

The league wide SV% in those days was in the 0.85% range though.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Agreed. All the advanced stats show that his ppg&gpg is due to regress at some point this season.

That said, one thing that's been bothering me with all the talk about the unsustainability of his current 20.2% shooting percentage is that it's really not unprecedented. Mike Bossy had a career shooting percentage of 21.2%.

Yup, i doubt he'll get near 30 goals if he doesn't start catching on to the NHL style of game. His corsi was going up before the weekend though, so that's positive.

 

[JayJay]

I'm not really into all that Laine vs Matthews comparison and try my best to avoid reading anything regarding. You can discuss about Laine without bringing Matthews to that conversation and vice versa. I stay out of main boards because I don't like steam coming out of my ears. And I hate when i.e. on Twitter when someone goes and compliments Laine (not comparing the two), there is immediately 10+ comments "yea, but Matthews!" And it goes the other way around too. Why? If someone has something good to say Laine/ Matthews it doesn't take anything away from the other. When i'm saying "what a goal by Laine!" I'm not comparing him to Matthews or saying Laine is better. I'm just saying it was a great goal!

Both are great young hockey players with ridiculous amount of skill. And they are different players with different kind of strenghts. I don't know how you measure who is better and do you really need to? Either way it isn't decided after this season or the next. if ever.Both are going to be stars on their teams.

Yes there is a lot of room for growth when it comes to Laine. He is nowhere near a finished product. But people shouldn't be upset about it because he isn't supposed to be one yet! Kid is 18! He is well ahead the curve for his age and he will be better. But you shouldn't expect him to play like seasoned veteran in every situation night in night out. Or look like Blake Wheeler around the boards. It will take time. He needs more experience, more strenght, good training summers and more games under his belt. He is working hard and we know he wants to improve all the time. It just doesn't happen overnight. It will come over the years. And that been said he has already improved his play on the neutral zone and on the d-zone a lot. and his possession numbers are trending to the right direction. There is still some work to do but he hasn't been a complete tirefire either.

In the meanwhile all the mistakes he makes and all ineffeciencies he might have in his play are more than compensated by the goals he scores and with the offence he brings to the team. Advanced stats might not be there yet but he is scoring a lot actual goals that are helping his team win the actual games. Jets season might not been great so far but Laine with his goals has been a bright spot in this team together with few other players like Ehlers. Laine has produced more goals for than he has caused against. Offencively he has exceeded all the (wild) expectations and that should be more than enough to appreciate what kind of player Jets have in Laine.

 

[Afterburner]

I'm not really into all that Laine vs Matthews comparison and try my best to avoid reading anything regarding. You can discuss about Laine without bringing Matthews to that conversation and vice versa. I stay out of main boards because I don't like steam coming out of my ears. And I hate when i.e. on Twitter when someone goes and compliments Laine (not comparing the two), there is immediately 10+ comments "yea, but Matthews!" And it goes the other way around too. Why? If someone has something good to say Laine/ Matthews it doesn't take anything away from the other. When i'm saying "what a goal by Laine!" I'm not comparing him to Matthews or saying Laine is better. I'm just saying it was a great goal!

Both are great young hockey players with ridiculous amount of skill. And they are different players with different kind of strenghts. I don't know how you measure who is better and do you really need to? Either way it isn't decided after this season or the next. if ever.Both are going to be stars on their teams.

Yes there is a lot of room for growth when it comes to Laine. He is nowhere near a finished product. But people shouldn't be upset about it because he isn't supposed to be one yet! Kid is 18! He is well ahead the curve for his age and he will be better. But you shouldn't expect him to play like seasoned veteran in every situation night in night out. Or look like Blake Wheeler around the boards. It will take time. He needs more experience, more strenght, good training summers and more games under his belt. He is working hard and we know he wants to improve all the time. It just doesn't happen overnight. It will come over the years. And that been said he has already improved his play on the neutral zone and on the d-zone a lot. and his possession numbers are trending to the right direction. There is still some work to do but he hasn't been a complete tirefire either.

In the meanwhile all the mistakes he makes and all ineffeciencies he might have in his play are more than compensated by the goals he scores and with the offence he brings to the team. Advanced stats might not be there yet but he is scoring a lot actual goals that are helping his team win the actual games. Jets season might not been great so far but Laine with his goals has been a bright spot in this team together with few other players like Ehlers. Laine has produced more goals for than he has caused against. Offencively he has exceeded all the (wild) expectations and that should be more than enough to appreciate what kind of player Jets have in Laine.

I agree the Laine Vs. Matthews is kinda blown out of proportion just to create some new rivalry with Jets and the Leafs for show and sport. They're both awesome players with their own skill-sets and have bright futures in the NHL. It shouldn't be a "talk about one, and the other comes up automatically" thing but that's the way the media plays it. Hopefully it dies down and the kids can just play and grow in their own ways individually without constantly being compared.

 

[Couchcaptain]

Yup, i doubt he'll get near 30 goals if he doesn't start catching on to the NHL style of game. His corsi was going up before the weekend though, so that's positive.

It's 13 goals in ~50 games if he stays healthy.. He can play like **** the rest of the season and still get there. Laine is one of those players who doesnt need good overall game and still can score at a very high rate.

 

[Couchcaptain]

Mirtle: The key context the Matthews-Laine debate is missing...

Pretty much what i've been seeing too. Laine still needs to do a lot of adapting. A lot.

Awful article to read, hurt my eyes to read that, it's basically the same **** the leafs fans have been posting everywhere. Same advanced stats etc, that they are posting on constant basis.
Leafs/ Matthews bias on that article is so visible that it is not even funny.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Awful article to read, hurt my eyes to read that, it's basically the same **** the leafs fans have been posting everywhere. Same advanced stats etc, that they are posting on constant basis.
Leafs/ Matthews bias on that article is so visible that it is not even funny.

Everything the article states is true. The writer is not even a Leafs fan, not even close. He also said that there's not much point in comparing them yet.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Everything the article states is true. The writer is not even a Leafs fan, not even close. He also said that there's not much point in comparing them yet.

I don't know. He almost exclusively covers the Leafs, so whether he's a fan or not, he's incredibly objective about it. I would love to have a James Mirtle for our local Jets coverage.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

OMaybe so, but it does look to me like Laine is gonna have to put up a real fight or he wont even be the rookie with most goals.

Ugh. All these terrible games are making me forget how good he can be...

 

[Lempo]

Everything the article states is true. The writer is not even a Leafs fan, not even close. He also said that there's not much point in comparing them yet.

It's nothing new to what you've already been told on HFB, though.

I continue having problem with this:

Shooting percentage
This is where some of the red flags are with Laine.

Matthews has been a shot generating machine with 3.6 per game (seventh in the NHL); Laine is well back with only 2.6 per game (62nd). His advantage in the goal scoring department has been hugely dependent on shooting percentage, which can be a precarious thing even for players with great releases.

Laine is currently converting on 20.2 per cent of his shots; Matthews is at 12.4 per cent. One of those is within the range of expected probabilities. The other isn’t.

I get rash from the expected probabilities argument. The expectation is fighting against the measurable reality when we are a third of season in. Will I still see the argument after 2/3 of the season IF it just keeps on happening? My own expectation is that Laine will be getting better rather than worse in what he does.

This is like implying that his goals shouldn't happen, that they're vapor or faerie gold and that the real deal also on the scoring department is the guy with better advanced stats who's more in line with historic stats. Well, they're happening and they're gonna happen.

Suck it up when he rips it into your net, like we too have to.

40+ and one for the Oilers.

 

[Lempo]

Plus I'd like to know the motivation why Mirtle posts only Matthews' shot heat map in the article. I can't post it because it doesn't give me a sensible url, but if one compares Laine's shot heat map from https://dtmaboutheart.shinyapps.io/ShotCharts/ , it comes just obvious that their scoring profiles altogether are different and maybe the advStat to advStat comparison doesn't really service the making of conclusions in this case.

Matthews' 111 shots to 11 goals from the front of the net vs. Laine's 90 shots to 13 goals from behind the points. I don't know, the "this is bad for Laine" approach doesn't quite reach me.

edit: the Leafs dudes had both of them up:

It's like he's undressing bra off the faceoff circles.

 

[psycho_dad*]

Plus I'd like to know the motivation why Mirtle posts only Matthews' shot heat map in the article. I can't post it because it doesn't give me a sensible url, but if one compares Laine's shot heat map from https://dtmaboutheart.shinyapps.io/ShotCharts/ , it comes just obvious that their scoring profiles altogether are different and maybe the advStat to advStat comparison doesn't really service the making of conclusions in this case.

Matthews' 111 shots to 11 goals from the front of the net vs. Laine's 90 shots to 13 goals from behind the points. I don't know, the "this is bad for Laine" approach doesn't quite reach me.

Yeah with the heat map Laine has, that is bad for everyone who isn't the Winnipeg Jets or rooting for them.

Compared to other high profile shooters, his is quite different (which is expected). Ovechkin has one set play that allows him to score from the left circle. Laine can and will score from further out and from both sides of the ice. There's no comparable heat map among the top shooters. What surprised me was the Stamkos one, I would have thought his usual range is a little further out than the map suggests.

 

[irunthepeg]

There was a tweet that went out where someone asked him about Sunday and Laine responded "what happened on Sunday?" Good response by him.

 

[jefferoni]

Quoting this article in the Winnipeg Sun...

Patrik Laine has had a few days to reflect on scoring the game-winning goal for the Edmonton Oilers on his own net on Sunday. When he returned to work on Wednesday, it sure sounded like the embarrassing own goal is in the past.

“What happened Sunday?†the Finnish winger asked with sly smile after the Jets practiced at MTS Centre.

“I haven’t thought about that. It’s gone. S--- happens sometimes. Now it was my turn.â€

Sounds like he's definitely over it!

 

[Hokinaittii]

Kinda sucks for Laine that Jets have their longest (?) rest in the season after Laine scores an own goal. I'd imagine a player wants to forget it as soon as possible and most likely the best way to do that is to score a goal in the next game.

 

[behemolari]

Kinda sucks for Laine that Jets have their longest (?) rest in the season after Laine scores an own goal. I'd imagine a player wants to forget it as soon as possible and most likely the best way to do that is to score a goal in the next game.

I'm sure this will do only good for him. seriously

 

[Hokinaittii]

I'm sure this will do only good for him. seriously

Yeah, could be that also. 4 days rest can do wonders for Laine as he has been having a rough schedule for a while now and it has shown in his game.

 

[razorsedge]

The Jets overall terrible play this season is more of a story than Laine's own goal.

 

[DaJackal]

At least he spent the Wednesday well.

 

[jarnov]

I get rash from the expected probabilities argument. The expectation is fighting against the measurable reality when we are a third of season in. Will I still see the argument after 2/3 of the season IF it just keeps on happening?

Statistically speaking past events don't affect the future.

In a coin toss you're expected to get 50 % heads and 50 % tails. If you've thrown 5 heads in a row, expectancy for both options for the next throw is still 50 %.

Same applies to cold and hot streaks in hockey. If we expect Laine to be let's say a 15 % shooter in the long run and his shooting % after 32 games is 20.2 %, his expected shooting percent for whole 82 games regular season is (32 * 20.2 + 50 * 15.0) / 82 = 17.03 %.

If we look at the future, we know, that hot and cold streaks come in turns and return an average. But it's a mistake to look at the past, see a hot streak and conclude that it produces a cold streak, or vice versa.

Matthews' 111 shots to 11 goals from the front of the net vs. Laine's 90 shots to 13 goals from behind the points. I don't know, the "this is bad for Laine" approach doesn't quite reach me.

If we trust on natural laws of the game it is bad for Laine. On average shots from close range are more dangerous than shots from a longer distance. If any coach of any hockey team can choose a shot against his team from 3 meters or 7 meters, he chooses one from 7 meters. This is clear anywhere except these absurd Laine threads.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

I feel like there is no realistic Laine talk to be found anywhere at hfboards. Its either trolling or insane homerism. People expecting either worst or best case scenario out of him

 

[StPatrik]

If we trust on natural laws of the game it is bad for Laine. On average shots from close range are more dangerous than shots from a longer distance. If any coach of any hockey team can choose a shot against his team from 3 meters or 7 meters, he chooses one from 7 meters. This is clear anywhere except these absurd Laine threads.

It really comes down to the question of do you believe Laine to have unique skill at shooting or not. If not, his long term stats will come near to average sniper. If he does, well, then those general NHL stats don't really describe him and can't predict his future performance. Stamkos has been able to maintain a significantly higher S% as compared to other elite scorers (over 17%, if my memory serves me well..). I've seen many comments that say Laine is the best shooter since Stamkos. Why should he not have a high S% then (maybe even higher than Stammer)?

Being able to put pucks to where he wants from distance is what makes Laine what he is. His coaches and teammates talk about it all the time. In my understanding this should show as a higher S% than we've been used to. He also doesn't shoot all the time, like Ovetchkin does, but he looks for real scoring opportunities and decides where to shoot. It's quality over quantity as a mindset.

 

[Lempo]

Statistically speaking past events don't affect the future.

In a coin toss you're expected to get 50 % heads and 50 % tails. If you've thrown 5 heads in a row, expectancy for both options for the next throw is still 50 %.

Same applies to cold and hot streaks in hockey. If we expect Laine to be let's say a 15 % shooter in the long run and his shooting % after 32 games is 20.2 %, his expected shooting percent for whole 82 games regular season is (32 * 20.2 + 50 * 15.0) / 82 = 17.03 %.

If we look at the future, we know, that hot and cold streaks come in turns and return an average. But it's a mistake to look at the past, see a hot streak and conclude that it produces a cold streak, or vice versa.



If we trust on natural laws of the game it is bad for Laine. On average shots from close range are more dangerous than shots from a longer distance. If any coach of any hockey team can choose a shot against his team from 3 meters or 7 meters, he chooses one from 7 meters. This is clear anywhere except these absurd Laine threads.

Yes, but then we'd have to conclude that Laine has had a hot streak that encompasses all his first 32 NHL games. I would be happier for example with an on-ice argument like that he's been given rookie freebies this far but now that they have to recognize him the opponents are going to do countermeasures to prevent him from scoring and that he is unlikely to find counter-countermeasures for those. "But the staats, maan!" alone is a bit meh in my view. If there has not been a substantial drop in his production at 41 games' mark, am I to assume that his half-a-season long hot streak is still going on?

As per the Scatter chart, six of his thirteen goals have been scored from his red heat map zone. I guess these should be undangerous shots but with Laine's shot they seem to be pretty damn dangerous. I can't buy without reservations that predictions made by league's averages should directly apply without modifiers to someone who really seems not to be a league averages guy in the way he plays the game.

But hey, if they just choose to continue to allow Laine shoot from 7 meters...

What I am saying is that maybe we shouldn't completely rule out the possibility that Laine might be a statistical outlier.