Prospect Info: Owen Tippett (2017, #10 overall), Saginaw Spirit (OHL), signed ELC on 7/19/17

FinlandPanther

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Mar 16, 2009
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he only just caught up to the pace he had as a 17 yr old and were favorably looking at him right after a hat trick. in a few games there should be some regression. that aside, there's absolutely nothing good about tying ur goal scoring rate from your draft year. we can take all the examples in the world where some busted and some didn't but it doesn't change the fact that its not a good thing that he hasn't blown away his previous goal pace. would anyone here be unhappy if tippett had more than a goal per game like debrincat did? everyone would be saying he's the goal scorer we've long been after and batting would be stat watching him all year and posting more than he already does. u think preds fans are not happy that tolvanen wreaks havoc on the khl? they're loving it. its only logical that a player scoring a ton no matter what league they're in should be looked at as better than not scoring a ton. I can't believe this needs to be explained. and even if tippett had improved his goal rate I feel I can't stress this enough, we need help now. not in 3-4 yrs. his best drunken projections from his gf would only have him as a 30 goal scorer in 3-4 yrs. that barely helps our core. so if were going to trade him anyway, we should have taken a better overall player who would have given us a better return and better players were available. not in hindsight, in plain sight. that's all I'm saying. not saying tippett is the worst and I hate gingers, so relax. this is a sober reading of our situation and his. that 50 point projection of him in the nhl sounds close to right even though they didn't have this seasons #s to work with. and 50 points is likely around 22G 28A. that's not what were looking for. we drafted him to get a 35 goal scorer. him working on his defense is irrelevant at this point. if he's not going to score 35 goals by 2 yrs from now, he's not what we need right now and shouldve been traded for a proven scorer or a legit D man with 2+ yrs under contract in a package deal by the deadline to address the playoff push and the next couple yrs. this is assuming the owners will actually spend the cap going fwd. but I suspect keeping all of our prospects means they wont be. and i dont believe for a second that we couldnt have made a trade without including borgstrom. we have plenty of chips but did nothing. just like we did nothing last offseason (more harm than good) and and thus have no reason to believe anything will be done this upcoming one. so more of the same for us I guess.
There was this guy named John Tavares who regressed a lot. He really sucks.
 

Chaos2k7

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A lot of people are still waiting on your player comparisons. Tippett is fine, Tippett will be fine, and lord knows you will be forced to watch him produce, and be wrong about it.
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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A lot of people are still waiting on your player comparisons. Tippett is fine, Tippett will be fine, and lord knows you will be forced to watch him produce, and be wrong about it.
absolutely no ones waiting for my player comparisons and i really dont have time at the moment to run you through players who regressed after their draft year and then ended up sucking but rest assured its the majority. as far as being forced to watch tippett produce, do u really not get that i want that to happen? this isnt about ego. i would absolutely love to be wrong about him. but being wrong or right about him is completely irrelevant for the second reason i listed. we need help now. not in 3 years. this core has 4 years left in it. do u really think it will matter if tippett produces in 3-4 years? its too late. i assume u understand the goal is to win a cup with this core. that means the next 4 years are all we've got since were not winning it this year. and honestly id be amazed if lou had more than 1 season left in him. so its basically next year unless we miraculously get another hall of fame goalie in 2 yrs. u think tippett gets 40 goals next year and wins the conn smythe? me neither.
 

GrumpyKelly

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Canucksarmy made a statistic that pretty much look at that. It's call pGPS, it compares the prospect with players that score a similar amount/rate and are about the same size. Here is their page on Tippett. Nation Network 2017 Prospect Profile: #13 – Owen Tippett

It also gives a chance of success and an expected offensive output. It's a nice read.

Yeah. But in the words of Captain Barbossa:

WT6Hk.gif


Would be interesting to see how the guys that busted projected, like Yakupov or Virtanen.

Everything can be quantified but how accurately, that's another question.
 
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Chaos2k7

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absolutely no ones waiting for my player comparisons and i really dont have time at the moment to run you through players who regressed after their draft year and then ended up sucking but rest assured its the majority. as far as being forced to watch tippett produce, do u really not get that i want that to happen? this isnt about ego. i would absolutely love to be wrong about him. but being wrong or right about him is completely irrelevant for the second reason i listed. we need help now. not in 3 years. this core has 4 years left in it. do u really think it will matter if tippett produces in 3-4 years? its too late. i assume u understand the goal is to win a cup with this core. that means the next 4 years are all we've got since were not winning it this year. and honestly id be amazed if lou had more than 1 season left in him. so its basically next year unless we miraculously get another hall of fame goalie in 2 yrs. u think tippett gets 40 goals next year and wins the conn smythe? me neither.
The teams needs have absolutely no bearing on whether or not Tippett is successful now, next season or in the future.

If you think that not being an NHL 40 goal man 2 years after being drafted is being a bust. Then the only draft success in the last 20 years is Alex Ovechkin. Barkov must be a bust too, lol.

You dont have time for comparisons, because you dont have any. Its cool, just stop talking smack about things you have no idea about.

You set a imaginary standard for players to have to meet, to be successful in the future, when really you are pulling that information out of your butt.
 
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Chaos2k7

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A hand picked "cup window" based upon nothing more than your feelings, doesnt have any link to draft prospects, player development, or the current developmental path of any one of our players.

We are not a 40 goal Tippett away from a stanley cup. Nor when he steps in the lineup will he be even the most important rookie on the team.

Thats Borgstrom.
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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A hand picked "cup window" based upon nothing more than your feelings, doesnt have any link to draft prospects, player development, or the current developmental path of any one of our players.

We are not a 40 goal Tippett away from a stanley cup. Nor when he steps in the lineup will he be even the most important rookie on the team.

Thats Borgstrom.
hand picked window. can this be a serious post? may i refer you to:

Florida Panthers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

if u dont think barkov and tro will be needing a raise then i dont know what to tell u. but hey, what do all star top 2 centers matter when ur chasing a cup. im sure pittsburgh will be just as good when crosby/malkin r gone.
 

Chaos2k7

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hand picked window. can this be a serious post? may i refer you to:

Florida Panthers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

if u dont think barkov and tro will be needing a raise then i dont know what to tell u. but hey, what do all star top 2 centers matter when ur chasing a cup. im sure pittsburgh will be just as good when crosby/malkin r gone.

All of Barky Hubs, and Trocheck are locked in for another 5 years minimum, but our cup window is 2-3 years?

Yes, you hand picked those numbers.
 

RogerRoger

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Yeah. But in the words of Captain Barbossa:

WT6Hk.gif


Would be interesting to see how the guys that busted projected, like Yakupov or Virtanen.

Everything can be quantified but how accurately, that's another question.

Oh for sure. No one expected Yakupov to bust and no models would predict someone so good in the CHL to bust like that.

On Virtanen: Jake Virtanen Is Good. So Don’t Draft Him
It's a lenghty article, but the gist of it is that you should draft the forward that score the most points per game (with a certain minimum of game) and not worry so much about tools like shoot. So they say to take Ehlers, because comparable players are elite and the low end of Ehlers is Derrick Brassard. Whereas Virtanen's ceilling is Landeskog but he's very close to Kyle Beach and many other busts.

That's why I would have preffered Suzuki over Tippett. Because the probability of Suzuki of busting and not be, at the very least, a productive middle 6 forwards are lower than Tippett's. Suzuki has less risk and higher upside, so it was a weird pick imo. But I really do hope Tippett succeed, no reason not to root for the guy once he's in the boat.
 
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Jakeybonz

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All of Barky Hubs, and Trocheck are locked in for another 5 years minimum, but our cup window is 2-3 years?

Yes, you hand picked those numbers.
theyre locked in for 4 more yrs as were not winning the cup this year. thus 4 yr cup window.
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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Oh for sure. No one expected Yakupov to bust and no models would predict someone so good in the CHL to bust like that.

On Virtanen: Jake Virtanen Is Good. So Don’t Draft Him
It's a lenghty article, but the gist of it is that you should draft the forward that score the most points per game (with a certain minimum of game) and not worry so much about tools like shoot. So they say to take Ehlers, because comparable players are elite and the low end of Ehlers is Derrick Brassard. Whereas Virtanen's ceilling is Landeskog but he's very close to Kyle Beach and many other busts.

That's why I would have preffered Suzuki over Tippett. Because the probability of Suzuki of busting and not be, at the very least, a productive middle 6 forwards are lower than Tippett's. Suzuki has less risk and higher upside, so it was a weird pick imo. But I really do hope Tippett succeed, no reason not to root for the guy once he's in the boat.
yes completely agree. and i will root for him just like i root for ekblad even though i think he sucks. but the point is tippett will not help us win a cup. it was a pointless pick.
 

TheImpatientPanther

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Jan 17, 2013
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hand picked window. can this be a serious post? may i refer you to:

Florida Panthers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

if u dont think barkov and tro will be needing a raise then i dont know what to tell u. but hey, what do all star top 2 centers matter when ur chasing a cup. im sure pittsburgh will be just as good when crosby/malkin r gone.

Probably why we won't go after any big name free agents (if we do it'll be 2-4 year depth deals) or bring in veteran help because they want to re-sign the 3 headed monster in AB, VT and JH. Huberdeau may become expendable if Borgstrom, Mascherin and Hepo all play LW, similar to what the Leafs will do with JVR.

The cap should go up another $5-6 million in 3-4 years and we have a ton of money coming off the books when those guys need new deals. Bjugstad, Luongo, Reimer, Dadonov, etc. The hope is these prospects pan out, are expansion exempt/protected and we can keep the main pieces together.

Even if Tippett tops out as a 25-30 goal guy, it's not like he's a bust. Not too many 40 goal guys in the league.
 
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Jakeybonz

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Probably why we won't go after any big name free agents (if we do it'll be 3-4 year depth deals) or bring in veteran help because they want to re-sign the 3 headed monster in AB, VT and JH. Huberdeau may become expendable if Borgstrom, Mascherin and Hepo all play LW, similar to what the Leafs will do with JVR.

The cap should go up another $5-6 million in 3-4 years and we have a ton of money coming off the books when those guys need new deals. Bjugstad, Luongo, Reimer, Dadonov, etc. The hope is these prospects pan out, are expansion exempt/protected and we can keep the main pieces together.

Even if Tippett tops out as a 25-30 goal guy, it's not like he's a bust. Not too many 40 goal guys in the league.
none of this matters unless the cap gets spent. has it ever? will it ever? why wasnt it done this offseason. we should be competing for the cup now with these great contracts. not wasting a year of them for no reason.
 

TheImpatientPanther

Florida Flukin Panthers > LTIR Maple Leafs
Jan 17, 2013
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none of this matters unless the cap gets spent. has it ever? will it ever? why wasnt it done this offseason. we should be competing for the cup now with these great contracts. not wasting a year of them for no reason.

Well this is also the first year our top 3 forwards have been putting up these type numbers. Why go spend and choke yourself to the cap if the players aren't showing they have the ability to go deep? I feel this year showing we are no longer a bubble team/1st round exit team going forward.

I agree our goaltending is the weak point but as I stated before, Tallon has never been scared to go out and get a decent/big name goalie whether by trade or free agency.
 
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Chaos2k7

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i never said 2-3 yr window. i said tippett will take 2-3 yrs to develop. do u even care to quote me accurately. literally scroll up. its not hard.
Your thoughts on the salary cap, and if we should be competing and spending for a cup chance THIS season, have no bearing whatsoever on what Owen Tippett will become.
 
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Chaos2k7

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Well this is also the first year our top 3 forwards have been putting up these type numbers. Why go spend and choke yourself to the cap if the players aren't showing they have the ability to go deep? I feel this year showing we are no longer a bubble team/1st round exit team going forward.

I agree our goaltending is the weak point but as I stated before, Tallon has never been scared to go out and get a decent/big name goalie wheher by trade or free agency.
We have had good luck over the franchise history.

Hell Harri Sateri looked good. LOL.

Lots of non HOFer goalies win cups. And thats no slight on Lou.
 
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Chaos2k7

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An arguement is when you thoughtfully discuss certain points, and counter points not pull random comparisons, and try to connect them to your salary cap concerns.

Owen Tippett is just fine, he will continue on the path he is on. If he can be a reliable 2nd line 50 point guy. That would be outstanding for the franchise.
 

GrumpyKelly

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Oh for sure. No one expected Yakupov to bust and no models would predict someone so good in the CHL to bust like that.

On Virtanen: Jake Virtanen Is Good. So Don’t Draft Him
It's a lenghty article, but the gist of it is that you should draft the forward that score the most points per game (with a certain minimum of game) and not worry so much about tools like shoot. So they say to take Ehlers, because comparable players are elite and the low end of Ehlers is Derrick Brassard. Whereas Virtanen's ceilling is Landeskog but he's very close to Kyle Beach and many other busts.

That's why I would have preffered Suzuki over Tippett. Because the probability of Suzuki of busting and not be, at the very least, a productive middle 6 forwards are lower than Tippett's. Suzuki has less risk and higher upside, so it was a weird pick imo. But I really do hope Tippett succeed, no reason not to root for the guy once he's in the boat.

Yeah. I'm kind of luke warm on Tippett but I don't think Tallon would have drafted him if Tippett's only upside was a pure shooter. It's just not enough anymore in today's game, even Ovechkin started to play defense. So I guess they must see something else in Tippett, I've only seen him in the games he played here so I don't really know.

But generally speaking I still think the human factor weighs heavy in picking prospects.

It would be interesting to go though all the players that busted or where underwhelming compared to their draft positions and see if there are some underlying denominators.

And also go through all the guys that didn't project to be good/great/star players and ended up being so.

There must be hundreds of players by now on both sides of the coin that have slipped through scouts and analytics.
 

Chaos2k7

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No one is claiming he is the next coming of anything. But to make statements like he has to be a 40 goal guy in the next X amount of years for him to have been a value or have been a "good pick" for the franchise, is the sillyest thing I have ever heard.

No one should be expecting a superstar, to throw us over the top there is a reason he was available at 10, but this bust talk is twilight zone stuff man.
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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And also go through all the guys that didn't project to be good/great/star players and ended up being so.

There must be hundreds of players by now on both sides of the coin that have slipped through scouts and analytics.
oh no doubt. ill readily admit that its a crapshoot with prospects so all we have are the leading indicators such as their performances pre and post draft. im not overly hyped on tippetts projections, but i could easily end up wrong and he could even be a 40 goal scorer if the stars align for him. i just think its a longshot and my concern is for the cup window which was all i was trying to explain here. i just dont see how he'll be a part of it. he might catch the tail end of it in the 4th year, but i think we'd have better value adding star scorers now so they can contribute to the entirety of the window.
 

batting1k

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Mar 3, 2013
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oh no doubt. ill readily admit that its a crapshoot with prospects so all we have are the leading indicators such as their performances pre and post draft. im not overly hyped on tippetts projections, but i could easily end up wrong and he could even be a 40 goal scorer if the stars align for him. i just think its a longshot and my concern is for the cup window which was all i was trying to explain here. i just dont see how he'll be a part of it. he might catch the tail end of it in the 4th year, but i think we'd have better value adding star scorers now so they can contribute to the entirety of the window.

There's way more to it than the stats though. Some guys aren't huge scorers at the junior level but become scorers at the pro level. Some guys are the opposite. Dane Fox, Conor Garland, Ty Rattie are 3 guys that come to mind.
 

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