Overagers in recent drafts

[Seachd]

I was curious as to how many "overaged" players are picked in the average draft, so I did a little research. By "overaged" I mean any player not in his draft year. That can mean players who didn't opt in the year before, who slipped through undrafted, reentries, older Europeans, etc.

It seems the number of these players has been dropping in the past few years:

2000

Round 1 - 7/30 = 23.3%
Round 2 - 11/35 = 31.4%
Round 3 - 15/31 = 48.4%
Round 4 - 13/34 = 38.2%
Round 5 - 27/37 = 73.0%
Round 6 - 19/30 = 63.3%
Round 7 - 17/32 = 53.1%
Round 8 - 19/32 = 59.4%
Round 9 - 25/32 = 78.1%

Total - 153/293 = 52.2%

2001

1 - 5/30 = 16.7%
2 - 9/33 = 27.3%
3 - 10/34 = 29.4%
4 - 21/34 = 61.8%
5 - 17/34 = 50.0%
6 - 15/31 = 48.4%
7 - 17/31 = 54.8%
8 - 19/32 = 59.4%
9 - 21/30 = 70.0%

Total - 134/289 = 46.4%

2002

1 - 7/30 = 23.3%
2 - 11/33 = 33.3%
3 - 15/33 = 45.5%
4 - 12/34 = 35.3%
5 - 22/35 = 62.9%
6 - 15/31 = 48.4%
7 - 18/32 = 56.3%
8 - 23/31 = 74.2%
9 - 17/31 = 54.8%

Total - 140/290 = 48.3%

2003

1 - 7/30 = 23.3%
2 - 5/38 = 13.2%
3 - 11/33 = 33.3%
4 - 9/35 = 25.7%
5 - 15/31 = 48.4%
6 - 11/30 = 36.7%
7 - 22/32 = 68.8%
8 - 14/32 = 43.8%
9 - 14/31 = 45.2%

Total - 108/292 = 37.0%

2004

1 - 2/30 = 6.7%
2 - 7/35 = 20.0%
3 - 8/33 = 24.2%
4 - 7/31 = 22.6%
5 - 11/34 = 32.4%
6 - 12/30 = 40.0%
7 - 15/34 = 44.1%
8 - 14/31 = 45.2%
9 - 24/33 = 72.7%

Total - 100/291 = 34.4%

Now, if you're still reading this, you can tell I'm incredibly bored. But the numbers are higher than I would have thought. Note that all of the "projected" first rounders for 2005 are in their draft year.

Click to read more...

 

[TORRUS]

Yeah, you're right, the numbers are very high. Much higher than I would think.

Maybe better question would be who are those overaged players wou actually achieved something and made a good career after being drafted.

 

[MS]

I was curious as to how many "overaged" players are picked in the average draft, so I did a little research. By "overaged" I mean any player not in his draft year. That can mean players who didn't opt in the year before, who slipped through undrafted, reentries, older Europeans, etc.

It seems the number of these players has been dropping in the past few years:

2000

Round 1 - 7/30 = 23.3%
Round 2 - 11/35 = 31.4%
Round 3 - 15/31 = 48.4%
Round 4 - 13/34 = 38.2%
Round 5 - 27/37 = 73.0%
Round 6 - 19/30 = 63.3%
Round 7 - 17/32 = 53.1%
Round 8 - 19/32 = 59.4%
Round 9 - 25/32 = 78.1%

Total - 153/293 = 52.2%

...

2003

1 - 7/30 = 23.3%
2 - 5/38 = 13.2%
3 - 11/33 = 33.3%
4 - 9/35 = 25.7%
5 - 15/31 = 48.4%
6 - 11/30 = 36.7%
7 - 22/32 = 68.8%
8 - 14/32 = 43.8%
9 - 14/31 = 45.2%

Total - 108/292 = 37.0%

2004

1 - 2/30 = 6.7%
2 - 7/35 = 20.0%
3 - 8/33 = 24.2%
4 - 7/31 = 22.6%
5 - 11/34 = 32.4%
6 - 12/30 = 40.0%
7 - 15/34 = 44.1%
8 - 14/31 = 45.2%
9 - 24/33 = 72.7%

Total - 100/291 = 34.4%

Now, if you're still reading this, you can tell I'm incredibly bored. But the numbers are higher than I would have thought. Note that all of the "projected" first rounders for 2005 are in their draft year.

The numbers for the majority of those years are skewed because 18 y/o Americans weren't able to opt in without ruining their college eligibility.

For ie, in 2003 there were 7 1984 players selected in round 1, but all were guys who couldn't opt in in 2002 because they intended on playing in the NCAA. If they had been able to opt in for 2002, all would likely have been fairly high selections.

The numbers drop off because those restrictions are now gone.

 

[Seachd]

The numbers for the majority of those years are skewed because 18 y/o Americans weren't able to opt in without ruining their college eligibility.

For ie, in 2003 there were 7 1984 players selected in round 1, but all were guys who couldn't opt in in 2002 because they intended on playing in the NCAA. If they had been able to opt in for 2002, all would likely have been fairly high selections.

The numbers drop off because those restrictions are now gone.

That's one reason, but it's only been one season without those restrictions. And 7 really isn't that big of a number.

We'll have to see, but I think these numbers will go down even further this year. Unknown potential is pretty tempting, and I think more and more younger guys will get the nod.

 

[AnThGrt]

Nice post thx for the research

 

[Freaky Habs Fan]

That's one reason, but it's only been one season without those restrictions. And 7 really isn't that big of a number

That was only in the first round...

 

[MrMastodonFarm*]

Are you couting guys who opt in a year later as overage players? Because I wouldn't do that.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Are you couting guys who opt in a year later as overage players? Because I wouldn't do that.

Yeah, me neither.

Players would have to be at least 20 or be passed over in a previous draft to count as an overager for me.

 

[Seachd]

Are you couting guys who opt in a year later as overage players? Because I wouldn't do that.

Yes, which is why I made sure I clarified that at the beginning. I did that mainly to avoid sorting through who didn't opt in and who was passed over (sometimes it's very difficult to tell unless you hear one way or another).

Players who aren't in their draft year (even if they didn't opt in) are included. The main difference is that the age thing doesn't generally count as much against a player who didn't opt in, as opposed to a player who was skipped over.