Our 2nd-7th round picks for forwards is laughably trash

ottomaddox

Registered User
Oct 31, 2017
10,592
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Toronto
We've seen and still see so many great centres and wingers in this league that weren't 1st overall picks like Matthews, or top 10 picks like Kadri, Nylander and Marner, or even 1st round picks, that just went above and beyond in terms of progression and development and have become stars and superstars. We've never had that luxury yet.

Our longest serving Leaf once Bozak is gone will be Nazem Kadri, and he was drafted in 2009 so lets use that as a starting point of all our forwards drafted in the 2nd round and later. The results are embarrassing.

2009
2nd round, 50th overall: Kenny Ryan, 0 NHL GP
3rd round, 68th overall: Jamie Devane, 2 NHL GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P
6th round, 158th overall: Jerry D'Amigo, 31 NHL GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 P (22 GP with Leafs)

2010
2nd round, 43rd overall: Brad Ross, 0 NHL GP
3rd round, 62nd overall: Greg McKegg, 91 NHL GP, 7 G, 6 A, 13 P (4 GP with Leafs)
3rd round, 79th overall: Sondre Olden, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 144th overall: Sam Carrick, 19 NHL GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 P
5th round, 146th overall: Daniel Brodin, 0 NHL GP
7th round, 182nd overall: Josh Nicholls, 0 NHL GP

2011
3rd round, 86th overall: Josh Leivo, 57 NHL GP, 10 G, 12 A, 22 P*
5th round, 130th overall: Tony Cameranesi, 0 NHL GP
6th round, 152nd overall: David Broll, 5 NHL GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 P

2012
5th round, 126th overall: Dominic Toninato, 37 NHL GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 P (0 GP with Leafs)
6th round, 156th overall: Connor Brown, 171 NHL GP, 35 G, 35 A, 70 P*
6th round, 157th overall: Ryan Rupert, 0 NHL GP

2013
3rd round, 86th overall: Carter Verhaeghe, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 142nd overall: Fabrice Herzog, 0 NHL GP
7th round, 202nd overall: Andreas Johnsson, 9 NHL GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 P*

2014

4th round, 103rd overall: J.J. Piccinich, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 128th overall: Dakota Joshua, 0 NHL GP
6th round, 158th overall: Nolan Vesey, 0 NHL GP
7th round, 188th overall: Pierre Engvall, 0 NHL GP**

2015
2nd round, 61st overall: Jeremy Bracco, 0 NHL GP**
3rd round, 68th overall: Martins Dzierkals, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 125th overall: Dmytro Timashov, 0 NHL GP**
7th round, 185th overall: Nikita Korostelev, 0 NHL GP

tl;dr whole lot of prospects with 0 GP

* Leivo always ends up being a scratch or 4th liner when he's in the lineup so I feel like his potential is pretty much wasted. Brown has turned into a decent 3rd liner for us with penalty killing abilities, but that's about it, the guy doesn't do much else, benefited heavily from playing with Matthews his rookie year, and his regression this year when not playing with him showed. Johnsson is our 1 lucky late pick with top 6 potential, he is 24 years old so he's already in the prime years of his career and he just finally had his cup of coffee in the NHL. He is really going to need to show more next season.

** Jury is still out on Engvall, Bracco and Timashov on them just being NHL'ers. They definitely don't have star+ potential though. I'd say Engvall has higher potential at this point though after what he's shown since coming to the Marlies, and the SHL.

Not gonna do 2016-2017, too early for that. It's just absolutely amazing to me that the only way we were able to finally climb out of the basement was to get lucky by winning a lottery then drafting a franchise centre 1st overall, suck and suck to get Nylander and Marner, while getting no luck at all in the late rounds for forwards along the way. We need a Bergeron, a Benn, a Kucherov, a Marchand, a Gaudreau, a Stone, an Aho, a Point.

It's easy to make the Matthews and Marner picks. Imagine where we could've been this season or where we could be next season if we just had 1 single surprise mid or late round pick so that useless players like Bozak, Komarov or Martin would be long gone, and that there would've never been a need to sign/trade for players like Moore or Plekanec in the 1st place.

I like this thread. It's risky and I have to agree.

This why I still support trades, and UFA signings. People think we are loaded with prospects and better players that can easily replace Komarov, Polak, JVR, Bozak, Moore, and Plekanec. We don't really have that, and a successful Marlies team doesn't necessarily mean an amazing NHL team will be in the making.

I am glad we drafted Matthews, Marner, Rielly, etc. because we have very little to speak of when it comes to our other rounds of drafting.
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
13,985
4,967
Game breaking forwards picked outside of the first round. How many of those are there in the NHL? (I picked .6 ppg)

2009 Ryan O'Reilly
2010 None
2011 Kucherov, Gaudreau (Palat?)
2012 None
2013 Guentzel?
2014 Point, Arvidsson
2015 Aho

So over a period of seven years, there was 8 "good" forwards drafted after the first round. So the odds are something like 8 in 1300 of finding a "good player"... some of which are game breakers maybe.

So, you've got a 0.6% chance of a forward picked after the first round to have .6 points or more so far in there career... not sure that's game breaking... but... Ok, the odds are better, because D and G are picked amongst there as well... but even if it were a 1.2% chance... the odds aren't good. Basically it suggests, that if half of your picks are forwards after the first round, statistically you should pick one of these guys, once every 27 years. One player, once every 27 years!!!!!

In their early years, Wellwood, Poni and Kulemin, would have qualified Statistically, the Leafs have beaten the odds... not recently, but more than one every 27 years..... Though, it would appear as though in the past, more good players were taken in later rounds, so perhaps the odds were better a decade or two ago.

These days, if you can get good contributors, and look how many of our players have come through the Marlies, that is good enough.

2011 Also had William Karlsson... what a draft Anaheim had in 2011. Karlsson, Rakell, Gibson and Manson, with the highest pick being 30th overall.

Essentially 2/3 of a first line, a top pairing defenseman and a #1 goalie.
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
21,055
23,162
2011 Also had William Karlsson... what a draft Anaheim had in 2011. Karlsson, Rakell, Gibson and Manson, with the highest pick being 30th overall.

Essentially 2/3 of a first line, a top pairing defenseman and a #1 goalie.

Didn't make the cut based on being career 0.48 ppg... I suppose you could add him based on one season, but I was just looking at raw stats, so he was missed.
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
13,985
4,967
Our 6-7th round historically (recent) has been probably been one of the best in the league?

Stralman 7th, Komarov 6th, Stalberg 6th, Gunnarsson 6th, Sparks 7th, Connor Brown 6th, Johnsson 7th, Engvall 7th.... I'd say 2-5 have been trash.
 

Rants Mulliniks

Registered User
Jun 22, 2008
22,958
6,029
I like this thread. It's risky and I have to agree.

This why I still support trades, and UFA signings. People think we are loaded with prospects and better players that can easily replace Komarov, Polak, JVR, Bozak, Moore, and Plekanec. We don't really have that, and a successful Marlies team doesn't necessarily mean an amazing NHL team will be in the making.

I am glad we drafted Matthews, Marner, Rielly, etc. because we have very little to speak of when it comes to our other rounds of drafting.

You don't think most of those guys are pretty easily replaceable?
 

Trapper

Registered User
Nov 21, 2013
23,736
11,002
Isn't the AHL team dummying right now? Picks can't be that bad
Still need to show it in the NHL. Success between both doesn't already translate. Who won the AHL last year? Detroit. Plus if we are talking about drafted, 11 of 29 players were drafted on the playoff squad.
 

nsleaf

Registered User
Oct 21, 2009
4,057
1,434
Who knew? Later round picks don't necessarily work out. :amazed: Leafs should apply this:crossfing to their drafting strategy.
 

Dough72

Registered User
Sep 3, 2008
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where are all the guys people were screeching at Babcock for not putting on our playoff roster?
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
77,850
51,520
While I think your point is correct that things could be more perfect, especially for a franchise just crawling out of the basement, the fact that the Leafs have hit on the 8th, 4th and 1st overall picks and come away with star talent shouldn't be taken for granted. Just think of names like Jordan Staal, Zach Hamill, Brett Connolly, Nino Niederreiter, Alex Burmistrov, Nikita Filatov, Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk, Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, Pavel Zacha, etc. that the Leafs could have reasonably ended up with in that rage but didn't through luck, evaluation, whatever.
 

Boutette

Been there done that
Sep 28, 2017
2,991
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I like this thread. It's risky and I have to agree.

This why I still support trades, and UFA signings. People think we are loaded with prospects and better players that can easily replace Komarov, Polak, JVR, Bozak, Moore, and Plekanec. We don't really have that, and a successful Marlies team doesn't necessarily mean an amazing NHL team will be in the making.

I am glad we drafted Matthews, Marner, Rielly, etc. because we have very little to speak of when it comes to our other rounds of drafting.

Komarov lost his job to a Marlie in the NHL Playoffs. Polak can and should be replaced by Borgman, who distinguished himself well. JVR and Bozak were sheltered to the extreme, to the point that they were facing 4th liners at times because Kapanen was giving opposition coaches fits. Moore and Plekanec, seriously? Losing them should be the last thing you are worried about as they played themselves into oblivion. The Marlies top line is dominating the best teams in the AHL in the playoffs. They will have little trouble producing if they are sheltered the same way JVR and Bozak were, and unlike those two, all the marlies coming up can be bothered to contribute in their own zone. Time to lose the overpriced crutches and training wheels.
 

Boutette

Been there done that
Sep 28, 2017
2,991
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While I think your point is correct that things could be more perfect, especially for a franchise just crawling out of the basement, the fact that the Leafs have hit on the 8th, 4th and 1st overall picks and come away with star talent shouldn't be taken for granted. Just think of names like Jordan Staal, Zach Hamill, Brett Connolly, Nino Niederreiter, Alex Burmistrov, Nikita Filatov, Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk, Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, Pavel Zacha, etc. that the Leafs could have reasonably ended up with in that rage but didn't through luck, evaluation, whatever.

The leafs aren't crawling out of the basement. Its more like leaping. They went from 30th to 6th in the league in 2 years, primarily on the backs of their youngest players. The vets were just there for the ride for the most part.
 

MapleLeafs9

Registered User
Sep 22, 2011
7,740
4,231
Game breaking forwards picked outside of the first round. How many of those are there in the NHL? (I picked .6 ppg)

2009 Ryan O'Reilly
2010 None
2011 Kucherov, Gaudreau (Palat?)
2012 None
2013 Guentzel?
2014 Point, Arvidsson
2015 Aho

So over a period of seven years, there was 8 "good" forwards drafted after the first round. So the odds are something like 8 in 1300 of finding a "good player"... some of which are game breakers maybe.

So, you've got a 0.6% chance of a forward picked after the first round to have .6 points or more so far in there career... not sure that's game breaking... but... Ok, the odds are better, because D and G are picked amongst there as well... but even if it were a 1.2% chance... the odds aren't good. Basically it suggests, that if half of your picks are forwards after the first round, statistically you should pick one of these guys, once every 27 years. One player, once every 27 years!!!!!

In their early years, Wellwood, Poni and Kulemin, would have qualified Statistically, the Leafs have beaten the odds... not recently, but more than one every 27 years..... Though, it would appear as though in the past, more good players were taken in later rounds, so perhaps the odds were better a decade or two ago.

These days, if you can get good contributors, and look how many of our players have come through the Marlies, that is good enough.
There are A LOT more players in the league than that picked in 2nd-7th round that are stars, I just used 2009 as the starting point because Kadri is soon to be our longest serving Leaf. We can go back years probably until the year 2000 without picking a stud forward in those rounds. Also, 2010 has Mark Stone by the way. He's a 60 point player (PPG this year) and one of the best defensive forwards in the league, I think he qualifies. Like someone pointed out earlier too you missed some other players, like Karlsson (although he just had his coming out party this year), 43 goals and 78 points, while currently being near PPG in the playoffs on a SCF team is impressive. Mike Hoffman is one as well but he had a bad year this season, along with everyone else on Ottawa. Anders Lee if he can keep up his play.

Wellwood, Poni, and Kulemin? No, no, and no. Ponikarovsky sucked, he was a top 6 forward here for years and never put up any respectable top 6 numbers except for one season when we were a bottom feeder, he was a key contributor to us being a bad team and it's why he was so irrelevant afterwards when he was traded. Wellwood and Kulemin are the same, 1 good year, bad players playing big minutes on bad Leaf teams, also why they were irrelevant once they left. Wellwood was also getting freebie points from playing on Sundin's wing in 2006.

Great post. I expect the OP to read this and accept his loss with good sportsmanship.
Nope.
 

MapleLeafs9

Registered User
Sep 22, 2011
7,740
4,231
While I think your point is correct that things could be more perfect, especially for a franchise just crawling out of the basement, the fact that the Leafs have hit on the 8th, 4th and 1st overall picks and come away with star talent shouldn't be taken for granted. Just think of names like Jordan Staal, Zach Hamill, Brett Connolly, Nino Niederreiter, Alex Burmistrov, Nikita Filatov, Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk, Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, Pavel Zacha, etc. that the Leafs could have reasonably ended up with in that rage but didn't through luck, evaluation, whatever.
Also true, we could have Laine, Hanifin, and Ritchie instead and be in a much much much worse spot, but we don't, so I'm looking at other areas we can improve on as a club. 2nd-7th round picks are one of those areas.
 

ObscureAlien

Registered User
May 1, 2016
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u added two forwards bring the total from 8 to 10 increasing the odds by less than 0.2%. definitely statistically significant enough to change his point /s
 

Dough72

Registered User
Sep 3, 2008
1,934
741
Game breaking forwards picked outside of the first round. How many of those are there in the NHL? (I picked .6 ppg)

2009 Ryan O'Reilly
2010 None
2011 Kucherov, Gaudreau (Palat?)
2012 None
2013 Guentzel?
2014 Point, Arvidsson
2015 Aho

So over a period of seven years, there was 8 "good" forwards drafted after the first round. So the odds are something like 8 in 1300 of finding a "good player"... some of which are game breakers maybe.

So, you've got a 0.6% chance of a forward picked after the first round to have .6 points or more so far in there career... not sure that's game breaking... but... Ok, the odds are better, because D and G are picked amongst there as well... but even if it were a 1.2% chance... the odds aren't good. Basically it suggests, that if half of your picks are forwards after the first round, statistically you should pick one of these guys, once every 27 years. One player, once every 27 years!!!!!

In their early years, Wellwood, Poni and Kulemin, would have qualified Statistically, the Leafs have beaten the odds... not recently, but more than one every 27 years..... Though, it would appear as though in the past, more good players were taken in later rounds, so perhaps the odds were better a decade or two ago.

These days, if you can get good contributors, and look how many of our players have come through the Marlies, that is good enough.
so always trade up instead of down and don't worry about trading veterans for lottery tickets
 

Rants Mulliniks

Registered User
Jun 22, 2008
22,958
6,029
Komarov lost his job to a Marlie in the NHL Playoffs. Polak can and should be replaced by Borgman, who distinguished himself well. JVR and Bozak were sheltered to the extreme, to the point that they were facing 4th liners at times because Kapanen was giving opposition coaches fits. Moore and Plekanec, seriously? Losing them should be the last thing you are worried about as they played themselves into oblivion. The Marlies top line is dominating the best teams in the AHL in the playoffs. They will have little trouble producing if they are sheltered the same way JVR and Bozak were, and unlike those two, all the marlies coming up can be bothered to contribute in their own zone. Time to lose the overpriced crutches and training wheels.

This is the part I most like and that gets most overlooked. People will talk about "how can we possibly replace JVR's goals" but several of these up and comers have put up a lot of points at their levels to date but more importantly can bring our GA down, which in itself counts as much or more than scoring (if more goals tend to go in against than for with you...not really a great benefit). The next step for this club is to shrink the GA while still scoring at a decent clip. That is how we become real contenders. This upcoming crop has a high likelihood of helping us get there. It's exactly why I would have traded JVR (unless we knew he would take a sweetheart deal).
 
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Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
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There are A LOT more players in the league than that picked in 2nd-7th round that are stars, I just used 2009 as the starting point because Kadri is soon to be our longest serving Leaf. We can go back years probably until the year 2000 without picking a stud forward in those rounds. Also, 2010 has Mark Stone by the way. He's a 60 point player (PPG this year) and one of the best defensive forwards in the league, I think he qualifies. Like someone pointed out earlier too you missed some other players, like Karlsson (although he just had his coming out party this year), 43 goals and 78 points, while currently being near PPG in the playoffs on a SCF team is impressive. Mike Hoffman is one as well but he had a bad year this season, along with everyone else on Ottawa. Anders Lee if he can keep up his play.

Wellwood, Poni, and Kulemin? No, no, and no. Ponikarovsky sucked, he was a top 6 forward here for years and never put up any respectable top 6 numbers except for one season when we were a bottom feeder, he was a key contributor to us being a bad team and it's why he was so irrelevant afterwards when he was traded. Wellwood and Kulemin are the same, 1 good year, bad players playing big minutes on bad Leaf teams, also why they were irrelevant once they left. Wellwood was also getting freebie points from playing on Sundin's wing in 2006.


Nope.


Adding two players, doesn't change anything statistically. The odds of picking a 0.6 ppg forward, after round one, are prohibitively small.

As far as those three leafs, they were all over 0.6 ppg for extended season, early in their careers.... I mean, if we want to eliminate players, based on bad teams, or poor scoring support, than we eliminate all of the Ottawa guys you've listed too... you can't have it both ways. Poni was 0.6 for five seasons here... Wellwood for 3 seasons on average. Kulemin had three good seasons, then the plane crash. Karlsson has only had one good year, and you want to add him, but take away Leafs from the discussion, who have had one good year, three good years, or five.... I mean, which way do you want to play this?

Here's the bottom line. Picking a 0.6 + PPG forward, outside of the first round, is a very rare event... You chose 2009 as YOUR discussion point, so I followed it. Frankly, what we see in the data, is that better scouting, means more predictability as to where impact forwards will be chosen. There are random surprises, somewhere between 1.1 to 1.3 a year, out of 186 picks. Pretty small odds.

Plus, you could make the argument that Euro Free Agents, or NCAA Free Agents are in the same boat... Players originally selected by our organization.

10 of our top 15 scorers this past year, were drafted by the Leafs, or Non-drafted Free Agent signings, 5 of our top 6. We had 18 players, play at some point in the year for the Leafs, who fall under the same category.

But we are doing it wrong.. RIGHT!!
 

613Leafer

Registered User
May 26, 2008
12,818
3,641
Our 6-7th round historically (recent) has been probably been one of the best in the league?

Stralman 7th, Komarov 6th, Stalberg 6th, Gunnarsson 6th, Sparks 7th, Connor Brown 6th, Johnsson 7th, Engvall 7th.... I'd say 2-5 have been trash.

Late 1sts/2nds were trash under Burke/Nonis. Ryan, Blacker, Ross, Biggs, Percy, Gauthier, and Finn. Seven straight strikeouts in the ~20-59 OA range.

Under new management though, Dermott, Bracco, Grundstrom, Korshkov, and Rasanen were in that range. Pretty sure we have two NHLers out of that, if not more.
 

Boutette

Been there done that
Sep 28, 2017
2,991
1,056
You think JVR is easily replaceable?

I know that we didn't get the best from D. Moore this season, yet Freddy Goat didn't exactly play in a way that made Moore expendable.

We can easily replace JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Moore, Pleckanec (and Martin) with a group of players who will produce the same collective offense while improving overall team defense. Remember, hockey is a team sport that includes both offense and defence collectively. Its not, say, golf.

PS. Without Marleau in their line up, San Jose's offense actually improved (even before they added Kane) and their defense wasn't effected. How did that happen?
 

AllDay28

Registered User
Oct 15, 2015
3,611
2,705
if you look at the numbers, most teams 2-7 round picks are trash. What are you expecting? Sidney Crosby in the 4th? get real.
 

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