b1e9a8r5s
Registered User
25 seems awfully low IMO, especially since he still managed 30 with a stint in the minors and a lengthy stretch of being as bad as humanly possible. I think he’ll be mid 30s to low 40s, unsure on BA/OBP though.
Schwarber hit 30HRs in 480 PAs ... in a terrible year. Schwarber OBP was .355 two years ago. If I'm not mistaken, Schwarber hit near .250 after he came back from the minors.
IF Schwarber gets back to hitting .250, a .360 OBP is very possible. The key question is if he can hit to the opposite field. The shift killed him last year. Rizzo had the same issue until he started hitting to the opposite field.
I'm a skeptic with him, like I said. I guess I just don't buy the "he lost weight, problem solved" narrative. I don't think his defense is going to improve much which would keep the PAs down as well.
His 2nd half when he hit .255 last year was only a .335 OBP, for whatever that's worth.
He's a really interesting case though as he clearly has a ton of power and some real talent, with not a ton of track record, so a wide range of outcomes is possible. I won't pretend to have some fancy stats to back up my opinions on him though, so I could certainly be way off. Just a hunch I have.