Speculation: O'Reilly Mega Thread - ALL ROR Speculation Here

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Wow he had a good week and a good playoffs guess that makes up for 2 subpar regular seasons.

In his draft year, he was just under a PPG player as a defensemen on a pretty good team (finished 7th overall/22 in WHL).

In the two following seasons, he was just over a PPG player as a defensemen in Calgary on two pretty weak teams (16th OA/22 and 20th OA/22). The reports we received from a guy that watched a lot of him said he had become the "do everything" defenseman last year in Calgary as well. Looks like his production dipped when he moved to a new team, which is understandable, but is now hitting his stride in the playoffs.

What are these "subpar" regular seasons you refer to? Or have you watched him extensively because you watch a lot of Hitman games?

 

[Benstheman]

In his draft year, he was just under a PPG player as a defensemen on a pretty good team (finished 7th overall/22 in WHL).

In the two following seasons, he was just over a PPG player as a defensemen in Calgary on two pretty weak teams (16th OA/22 and 20th OA/22). The reports we received from a guy that watched a lot of him said he had become the "do everything" defenseman last year in Calgary as well. Looks like his production dipped when he moved to a new team, which is understandable, but is now hitting his stride in the playoffs.

What are these "subpar" regular seasons you refer to? Or have you watched him extensively because you watch a lot of Hitman games?

Yeah most people just watch stats columns and make an interpretation of it. And i confess, i am one of them as i don't have time to watch CHL games.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah most people just watch stats columns and make an interpretation of it. And i confess, i am one of them as i don't have time to watch CHL games.

Yep. I would say that's the case for 99+% of posters on HF (myself included). Most aren't watching CHL, AHL, KHL, NCAA, SM-Liiga, Swe, etc..regularly, or at all, and rely on stats, a few highlights and maybe a very small sample of WJC games to make their assessments. So clearly those assessments need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

I mean, would I trade Hanifin or ROR? Yes. Would other Caniacs? Maybe. If Hanifin's involved, you won't get much else.

 

[is the answer jesus]

Sanheim puts up a ppg D+1 season for Calgary Hitmen in 2015 = Hype machine future #1
Bean puts up a ppg D+1 season for Calgary Hitmen in 2017 = Sub-Par

Does an incredible Playoff (compared to All Current Canadian Junior D) run outweigh an at- par season? I don't see why not.

I just think the perception of Bean is pretty interesting. Seems to be a lot of double standards when it comes to smaller market players.

Sanheim's D+2 season was what fueled the hype for most Flyers fans. Bean didn't produce as much as a highly regarded offensive minded defenseman in his D+2 season should have. A great playoffs is a good sign for Bean, because IMO he's underwhelmed in the 2 regular seasons and in 2 consecutive WJC. I'm not saying Bean will bust or that he won't become a top 4 defenseman, but given his draft position and relatively pedestrian production I would have expected more to date.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Sanheim's D+2 season was what fueled the hype for most Flyers fans. Bean didn't produce as much as a highly regarded offensive minded defenseman in his D+2 season should have. A great playoffs is a good sign for Bean, because IMO he's underwhelmed in the 2 regular seasons and in 2 consecutive WJC. I'm not saying Bean will bust or that he won't become a top 4 defenseman, but given his draft position and relatively pedestrian production I would have expected more to date.

Again, have you watched Bean to say he's "underwhelmed" in 2 regular seasons? Or are you basing this on the fact that he's increased his PPG totals in Calgary over those 2 seasons (vs. his draft season) at a time when the team has gotten much worse? Genuinely curious.

 

[GoldiFox]

Sanheim's D+2 season was what fueled the hype for most Flyers fans. Bean didn't produce as much as a highly regarded offensive minded defenseman in his D+2 season should have. A great playoffs is a good sign for Bean, because IMO he's underwhelmed in the 2 regular seasons and in 2 consecutive WJC. I'm not saying Bean will bust or that he won't become a top 4 defenseman, but given his draft position and relatively pedestrian production I would have expected more to date.

Bean was #13 OA.

Draft + 2:

Player	GP	Points	Pts/GP	Playoff GP	Playoff Pts	Playoff Pts/GP
Jake Bean (#13)	57	48	0.84	8	14	1.75
Josh Morrisey (#13)	47	38	0.81	13	14	1.07
Jakub Zboril (#13)	50	41	0.82	16	7	0.44
Brandon Gormley (#13)	35	32	0.91	7	7	1.00
Ryan Murphy (#12)	54	48	0.88	10	7	0.70
Calvin De Haan (#12)	55	48	0.87	10	12	1.20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Maybe I'm missing these comparable which show pedestrian production? All seems pretty even to me other than Bean breaking out in the Playoffs. Only Bean and Morrisey were traded in their D+2 year which appears to have created some transition lag in scoring.

Morrisey is ideally what the Canes are looking at with Bean.

 

[is the answer jesus]

In his draft year, he was just under a PPG player as a defensemen on a pretty good team (finished 7th overall/22 in WHL).

In the two following seasons, he was just over a PPG player as a defensemen in Calgary on two pretty weak teams (16th OA/22 and 20th OA/22). The reports we received from a guy that watched a lot of him said he had become the "do everything" defenseman last year in Calgary as well. Looks like his production dipped when he moved to a new team, which is understandable, but is now hitting his stride in the playoffs.

What are these "subpar" regular seasons you refer to? Or have you watched him extensively because you watch a lot of Hitman games?

I don't watch a lot of Hitman games, my viewings of Bean include a handful of games for Tri-city and Calgary, and all of the WJC games. I haven't had time to watch him in the playoffs (which he seems to be doing very well in). I came away underwhelmed in my viewings of him, as I said in my last post that isn't to say he's trending towards being a bust or anything like that, but when making an offer for a 1st line center locked up for multiple years in his prime, you're going to have to offer high end prospects and picks or a very good roster player. Not mid firsts, borderline cap dump roster players and prospects that have been "ok" since they were drafted 2 years ago.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't watch a lot of Hitman games, my viewings of Bean include a handful of games for Tri-city and Calgary, and all of the WJC games. I haven't had time to watch him in the playoffs (which he seems to be doing very well in). I came away underwhelmed in my viewings of him, as I said in my last post that isn't to say he's trending towards being a bust or anything like that, but when making an offer for a 1st line center locked up for multiple years in his prime, you're going to have to offer high end prospects and picks or a very good roster player. Not mid firsts, borderline cap dump roster players and prospects that have been "ok" since they were drafted 2 years ago.

I have no issue with you not wanting him as part of a deal. None what-so-ever and don't blame you.

What I have issue with is you making proclamations about being "subpar or underwhelming" when you've barely watched him and when his PPG actually INCREASED on much worse teams vs. his draft season.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I was a big fan of Bean. Wanted Buffalo to trade back to get him if possible. Not sure I'd be happy if he was the centerpiece in a ROR trade.

 

[is the answer jesus]

I have no issue with you not wanting him as part of a deal. None what-so-ever and don't blame you.

What I have issue with is you making proclamations about being "subpar or underwhelming" when you've barely watched him and when his PPG actually INCREASED on much worse teams vs. his draft season.

I'm sure you guys have watched every Hitman game and Tri-City game he's ever played right? I've watched enough of Bean to comfortably make my assesment of his play to date. If that hurts people's feelings I apologize. When players like Clague, Mahura, Cholowski, Foote etc are having superior D+2 regular seasons it puts things into perspective. The fact that his stats have slightly increased in his D+2 season doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence for me regardless of his teammates. Fans take people's evaluations of their prospects way too personally around here.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm sure you guys have watched every Hitman game and Tri-City game he's ever played right? I've watched enough of Bean to comfortably make my assesment of his play to date. If that hurts people's feelings I apologize. When players like Clague, Mahura, Cholowski, Foote etc are having superior D+2 regular seasons it puts things into perspective. Fans take people's evaluations of their prospects way too personally around here.

LOL. Not taking it personally at all nor does it hurt my feelings. Nothing on HF hurts my feelings as it's just a hockey discussion board with random strangers.

I personally have no idea if Bean will be anything or not. I just see a lot of posters constantly make proclamations about players, teams, prospects, etc... on minimal amount info and then act like it's an informed opinion (and then other HF posters latch onto said assessments). I feel it's appropriate to interrogate how much first hand information a poster has when they make such statements. Sorry if that ruffles your feathers.

 

[GoldiFox]

I'm sure you guys have watched every Hitman game and Tri-City game he's ever played right? I've watched enough of Bean to comfortably make my assesment of his play to date. If that hurts people's feelings I apologize. When players like Clague, Mahura, Cholowski, Foote etc are having superior D+2 regular seasons it puts things into perspective. The fact that his stats have slightly increased in his D+2 season doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence for me regardless of his teammates. Fans take people's evaluations of their prospects way too personally around here.

2017-18 Seasons:

Player	GP	Pts	Pts/GP	Top Points on Team	Playoff GP	Playoff Pts	Playoff Pts/GP
Bean (CGY)	25	27	1.08	64
Bean (Tri-City)	32	21	0.66	84	8	14	1.75
Clague (Brandon)	28	47	1.68	100
Clague (Mjaw)	26	24	0.92	129	14	14	1.00
Mahura	60	69	1.15	83	7	5	0.71
Cholowski (PG)	37	39	1.05	69
Cholowski (Portland)	32	27	0.84	102	12	7	0.58
Foote	60	70	1.17	95	4	6	1.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

All the information needed to show you are just wrong about "superior seasons". I think it should provide the perspective you need. Looks like you just picked a random list of D names and hoped that nobody knew the actual information. All of Bean, Clague, and Cholowski's point production dropped on their new team. That's common going to a new club. To BBA's point, clearly Bean had less offensive support on his teams than any other D you mention. Bean is far-and-away the best Playoff performer. Which again hits the same point about team production, now that Rasmussen and Geekie are stacking points to the ceiling Bean is also benefiting.

 

[is the answer jesus]

LOL. Not taking it personally at all nor does it hurt my feelings. Nothing on HF hurts my feelings as it's just a hockey discussion board with random strangers.

I personally have no idea if Bean will be anything or not. I just see a lot of posters constantly make proclamations about players, teams, prospects, etc... on minimal amount info and then act like it's an informed opinion (and then other HF posters latch onto said assessments). I feel it's appropriate to interrogate how much first hand information a poster has when they make such statements. Sorry if that ruffles your feathers.

Yeah and ultimately that's what most of us that watch these guys do, we watch a handful of games and attempt to project what these kids will end up becoming. Some stat watch exclusively which can be readily apparent. I try to base my evaluations mostly on viewings. I'd like to think when I've only seen a kid play a couple times I don't make snap judgments or sweeping generalizations for the most part. Given where Bean was selected and his offensive skillset I personally expected more out of him to date. I won't tell Hurricanes fans what their expectations of him should be.

 

[is the answer jesus]

2017-18 Seasons:

Player	GP	Pts	Pts/GP	Top Points on Team	Playoff GP	Playoff Pts	Playoff Pts/GP
Bean (CGY)	25	27	1.08	64
Bean (Tri-City)	32	21	0.66	84	8	14	1.75
Clague (Brandon)	28	47	1.68	100
Clague (Mjaw)	26	24	0.92	129	14	14	1.00
Mahura	60	69	1.15	83	7	5	0.71
Cholowski (PG)	37	39	1.05	69
Cholowski (Portland)	32	27	0.84	102	12	7	0.58
Foote	60	70	1.17	95	4	6	1.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

All the information needed to show you are just wrong about "superior seasons". I think it should provide the perspective you need. Looks like you just picked a random list of D names and hoped that nobody knew the actual information. All of Bean, Clague, and Cholowski's point production dropped on their new team. That's common going to a new club. To BBA's point, clearly Bean had less offensive support on his teams than any other D you mention. Bean is far-and-away the best Playoff performer. Which again hits the same point about team production, now that Rasmussen and Geekie are stacking points to the ceiling Bean is also benefiting.

Look at their seasons in there entirety. Each one of those guys put up production that dwarfed Bean's so yes in my mind those are superior seasons to his. Surrounding talent point taken. The great playoff run is certainly a step in the right direction. I'm curious as to where Pronman and some of the other draft prospect pundits put him after this year.
Regardless of all of this I have no interest in trading ROR for a package centered around him and a Mid 1st. Higher end picks, prospects, and good young players have to be included or O'Reilly stays a Sabre.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

In my opinion ROR is worth more than Hanifin. Canes fans might feel different but there are more Hanifins in the league than there are RORs that being said

ROR + 32nd

For

Hanifin + 11th(After lottery)

I think that trade is quite far. The difference in the two players is 20 spots in the draft. Canes still get a good prospect at 32.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

ROR for Nylander?

 

[CatsforReinhart]

ROR for Nylander?

Not interested. Defenceman or we keep him. ROR is a level about Nylander

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

ROR for Nylander?

Why would Toronto want another center? I guess you could put O'Reilly back on wing but that kind of defeats the purpose. Or you could ask for O'Reilly and Reinhart for Kadri and Nylander. I don't think if that makes Buffalo any better of a team though.

 

[is the answer jesus]

I'll take the 60 point center that plays great defense over the 60 point winger that is average defensively, even given the age difference. I would think Liljegren ++ would be the ask

 

[Rowley Birkin]

In my opinion ROR is worth more than Hanifin. Canes fans might feel different but there are more Hanifins in the league than there are RORs that being said

ROR + 32nd

For

Hanifin + 11th(After lottery)

I think that trade is quite far. The difference in the two players is 20 spots in the draft. Canes still get a good prospect at 32.

As was said earlier in the thread, Hanifin +2nd for ROR would seem to make more sense. I like it for both teams.

Its not like that deal really screws the Sabres out of anything either. The 2 early seconds could be packaged up to get back into the first if the right guy was there.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

The Sabres got ROR for a #16 pick dman, two B (at best) level prospects, and a 2nd. Why are other teams having to pay a high price?

I'm ok with the Hanifin/1st for ROR/2nd btw.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

The Sabres got ROR for a #16 pick dman, two B (at best) level prospects, and a 2nd. Why are other teams having to pay a high price?

I'm ok with the Hanifin/1st for ROR/2nd btw.

Biggest reason why is O'Reilly could have walked as a UFA. So there was a chance Buffalo could have gave that up for O'Reilly to walk and have nothing to show for it. Now he's 27 and in a contract until 32 and a good percentage of his contract is already paid. So while the cap is still 7.5 mil, the actual money that has to be paid to him is miniscule.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

The Sabres got ROR for a #16 pick dman, two B (at best) level prospects, and a 2nd. Why are other teams having to pay a high price?

I'm ok with the Hanifin/1st for ROR/2nd btw.

No, just no. I'd rather be keeping Hanifin than trading him for ROR.

 

[is the answer jesus]

The Sabres got ROR for a #16 pick dman, two B (at best) level prospects, and a 2nd. Why are other teams having to pay a high price?

I'm ok with the Hanifin/1st for ROR/2nd btw.

As Sabrescupbound said he was a pending UFA. The Sabres took the risk he would re-sign and he did. His deal is also front loaded so he's now signed next year for 8.5 million and 4 more years at 6 million in real salary. For a 27 year top line center that's a fantastic deal, especially to a team that is more concerned about real salary over cap hit.