One top prospect to avoid

[Grizz MacArthur]

I wouldn't even go that far. If a player is a role player at the junior level, it is a pretty rare occasion they ever make the NHL and become a significant role player at that level.
Same with the likes of Peca, Fisher, Madden and McCauley. All of these guys were elite scorers in juniors or college, and to a certain extent, re-invented themselves along the way to become elite checking forwards.

I agree with you that Calla is not worth a 1st or 2nd round pick. I take it from your statement above you're not that high on Sens draft pick Cody Bass?

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

I agree with you that Calla is not worth a 1st or 2nd round pick. I take it from your statement above you're not that high on Sens draft pick Cody Bass?

I think Bass will be a really good role player at the AHL level and perhaps a decent energy call-up in the NHL at times, but I don't think he will ever be on par with a Chris Kelly, who is definitely has checking center upside and can play a regular shift. I haven't seen him skate though, so I'll reserve judgement on that. If the energy guy has great wheels, then he is more likely to make your 4th line in the NHL. If he can be an agitator to boot, then maybe you have a Steve Webb-type player on your hands, which is ok, but he is still a guy who bounces in and out of the NHL at the best of times.

 

[jfc]

the "chip"

Interesting comparison between Sanguinetti and O'Sullivan. I would agree that he needs to get tougher and show at least some willingness to take the body, but his puck skills and speed are elite enough that a team in the top half of the first round will take a "gamble" on him.

If Sanguinetti is taken much lower than expected, he'll want to prove to alot of people that they made a big mistake. That looks to me like the basis for a pretty big chip.

 

[TheRedressor]

The biggest gamble would be to take Nigel Williams in the top 15.

 

[Greg7]

I wouldn't even go that far. If a player is a role player at the junior level, it is a pretty rare occasion they ever make the NHL and become a significant role player at that level. Comparing Kelly and Calla is a good way to differentiate between prospects.
...

There are plenty of valid arguments and points worthy of consideration here, but my main contention is that you are comparing specific players across eras, across leagues, across teams and roles, and ultimately, that you are assuming that statistics are a good representation of skill level. Calla plays on a defensive team in a defensive league, and in a semi defensive role, which is dictated by the systems and philosophies of his coach and team at least as much as by his skillset. This isn't to say that Calla would suddenly explode on a different team or in a different league - he probably wouldn't - but I do think his stats would improve, quite possibly to a level you find more acceptable for a decent NHL prospect.

Last year and earlier this year, my impression of Calla was that has great speed and work ethic, good size, plays well in all areas of the ice, but is very raw offensively. He has remained at this raw level for pretty much the full year, and of course this is going to make everyone quesiton his offensive upside, which is fair. He probably isn't ever going to be a top 6 forward in the NHL, and will have to get better with the puck to make the NHL at all; however, I don't think it's fair to say that because of his lack of production that he lacks the talent to play even a checking or grinding role at the next level. His lack of offensive growth has certainly dropped him, but his other attributes and in particular his outstanding skating, still make him worthy of a pick in the first half of the draft.

If you are looking for an elite checker like a Peca or Madden or Fisher or Bonk, well, Calla probably isn't going to get there. But I would argue that those guys are very solid hockey players worthy of first round picks, and they are all quite good offensive players even at an NHL level. I don't think anyone is projecting Calla to reach their level, but that doesn't preclude him from reaching a calibre of play that gets him a job as an every day player in the NHL, and neither, imo, do his unimpressive stats this year. None of this is an argument that Calla is a great prospect, or that he is worth more than a mid round pick; rather, the point here is that he is still a viable prospect with a reasonable chance to make it to the NHL. Specifically, I don't think comparing statistics of players from older, higher scoring eras and higher scoring leagues and teams provides detailed enough insight into Calla's situation to accurately assess his ability to translate his skillset to the next level. Stats aside, there are numerous examples of players who were always projected as defensive players who have fulfilled those predictions and reached the NHL.

Having said all that, I should make it clear that I don't think he's a particularly good prospect, and after seeing him for the first time in a few months in his playoff series against Vancouver I was thoroughly disappointed in him. He is not a strong bet to reach the NHL imo, but neither is anyone taken in the mid rounds of the draft; that doesn't make them unworthy of selection.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

There are plenty of valid arguments and points worthy of consideration here, but my main contention is that you are comparing specific players across eras, across leagues, across teams and roles, and ultimately, that you are assuming that statistics are a good representation of skill level.

Some very valid points and I certainly didn't mean to imply stats should be the only measuring stick of any sort. Good feedback.

The one thing I would add is what I've heard a few scouts say which has always stuck with me and that is the two things you can't count on teaching a player are (1) to get mean - they either are, or they aren't, and (2) hands - oh guys can improve, but if they don't have good hands by the time they are 17 or 18, you really can't think you're going to be able to teach them to 'catch up' because the guys with great hands already will continue to improve their shot, passing and moves at even a faster rate.

Skating is obviously a big considertion when drafting, but it can be taught and improved upon quite a bit still for a 17 year old. Hockey instincts and defensive player are obviously two others that can improve quite a bit.

Just thought I would add that tidbit, as I always found it interesting.

 

[Blind Gardien]

I have no opinion on Calla specifically and I don't in any way mean to compare him stylistically to any of the players I'm about to mention. But: Blake Comeau had 33 points in his draft year. On a better (but still extremely defense-oriented) team. Kyle Chipchura had 48 pts as a 1st round pick. Andrew Ladd relapsed to 45 pts last year in Calgary. Again, I don't know anything really about Calla, but there certainly does seem to be some precedent for decent prospects having an awfully hard time scoring in the WHL in recent years.

I do agree with the premise in general, though, but it seems like the OHL and Q might be "safer" leagues to apply it in these days.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

Some very valid points and I certainly didn't mean to imply stats should be the only measuring stick of any sort. Good feedback.

The one thing I would add is what I've heard a few scouts say which has always stuck with me and that is the two things you can't count on teaching a player are (1) to get mean - they either are, or they aren't, and (2) hands - oh guys can improve, but if they don't have good hands by the time they are 17 or 18, you really can't think you're going to be able to teach them to 'catch up' because the guys with great hands already will continue to improve their shot, passing and moves at even a faster rate.

Skating is obviously a big considertion when drafting, but it can be taught and improved upon quite a bit still for a 17 year old. Hockey instincts and defensive player are obviously two others that can improve quite a bit.

Just thought I would add that tidbit, as I always found it interesting.

I always felt that hockey sense could not be taught, but that may just be me...

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

I have no opinion on Calla specifically and I don't in any way mean to compare him stylistically to any of the players I'm about to mention. But: Blake Comeau had 33 points in his draft year. On a better (but still extremely defense-oriented) team. Kyle Chipchura had 48 pts as a 1st round pick. Andrew Ladd relapsed to 45 pts last year in Calgary. Again, I don't know anything really about Calla, but there certainly does seem to be some precedent for decent prospects having an awfully hard time scoring in the WHL in recent years.

I do agree with the premise in general, though, but it seems like the OHL and Q might be "safer" leagues to apply it in these days.

True enough. Based on overall goal scoring per game, basically add 20% to a WHLers production to get an idea of what that might roughly compare to a player from the OHL or Q.

Given the hooking and holding are still commonly accepted in the WHL, also best to avoid a player who is flourishing because of those rules and on the flips side, those that will flourish more next year when the crack down begins.

 

[MS]

I wouldn't even go that far. If a player is a role player at the junior level, it is a pretty rare occasion they ever make the NHL and become a significant role player at that level. Comparing Kelly and Calla is a good way to differentiate between prospects.

Kelly in his draft year scored 36 goals and 77 points. He was regarded as a scorer as a prospect, and only in the last few years has he re-invented himself into a two-way guy. But he definitely has some skill. Not enough to center a scoring line, but certainly enough to compliment some skill players and put up some points in his own right. 10 goals and 30 points as a rookie on the 4th line is pretty darn good no matter how you cut it.

Same with the likes of Peca, Fisher, Madden and McCauley. All of these guys were elite scorers in juniors or college, and to a certain extent, re-invented themselves along the way to become elite checking forwards.

And I think that's where people miss out on prospect at times. A 3rd or 4th liner checking forward is much more likely to have been a prolific scorer in junior with a great attitude, who at some point realized they weren't going to be an elite scorer in the NHL, so they went through a transition. Kelly was a smallish scorer who slipped to the third line because teams weren't quite sure he had the skills to be a scorer, but he certainly was never 'projected' to be a checking forward. But he realized that and in Bingo, became a great two-way guy, team captain, all the while still scoring at a decent pace (60 points in the AHL).

So IMO, if a guy has good intangibles and was a decent two-way forward at the junior level in his draft year, but nothing more, he really isn't worth much more than a late round flyer. I know there are exceptions to this (great wheels and skills, but stuck in a role on a team so the production was limited), but I'd much rather focus on drafting skilled forwards with good character and focus on turning them into two-way players.

Calla doesn't seem to fit the profile.

First off, Kelly is a late birthdate, so he had an extra season of development. At the age of 17, he scored 29 points to Calla's 33.

Second, Kelly *was* projected as a checker when drafted:

He gets pushed off the puck frequently, though he is tenatcious and relentless on the ice. He's an excellent checker, and might find a niche in the pro game as such. Lacks top speed but is an adequate skater with decent quickness and mobility.

He wasn't exactly a blue-chip offensive prospect. Scouting reports at the time emphasized his character, work-ethic, and puck pursuit abilities. It took him 4 pro seasons to develop into more than a 3rd/4th line player in the AHL.

Third, Calla's numbers are skewed because he plays for the most defensive team in the most defensive league in the CHL. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he's have scored 45-50 points if he were in the OHL or the QMJHL. Greg's post earlier covers this pretty well.

Lastly, Calla has a lot more to show at the WHL levle than he did this year. Hell, his goal total dropped from his 16 y/o season. Coming into the league he was projected as a scorer, and I'd fully expect he scores 60-70 points next year for Everett. Still doesn't have top-6 upside but he isn't some no-talent grunt at this level.

He is rated highly for a reason ... NHL skating ability, good size, lots of hustle and ability to pressure the puck in all three zones. He just doesn't seem to have hands at this point.

__________

I agree with much of what you're saying in general. I just think you're mis-pigeonholing Calla based on his numbers. He isn't Jerred Smithson ... he will be a top-6 forward in the WHL for the next two seasons, and has enough talent to think he can score 20-30 points in the NHL.

That said, yes he is rated too high. But he is a strong bet to be a contributing NHL player.

 

[islandermaniac]

Which top propsect (i.e. a top 10-15 pick) should teams avoid at the draft this year? Name one.

I will say Bobby Sanguinetti. He's got tons of offensive skill but his defensive game is really nonexistent. You can get what Sanguinetti is gonna give you with a guy like Dick Tarnstrom or Sandzis Ozolynsh. He is in my opinion the beneficiary of a ridiculously weak draft class for defensemen and normally would be taken at the bottom of the first round or the early second.

or is he the next sergei zubov? how do you know he can't be better than tarnstrom? and, btw, i think you are thinking about the ozolinsh of now and not the ozolinsh of his prime...an all-star on many occasions. two very different players.

 

[maxpenguins6630]

Bryce Swan

 

[badrobot101]

Which top propsect (i.e. a top 10-15 pick) should teams avoid at the draft this year? Name one.

I will say Bobby Sanguinetti. He's got tons of offensive skill but his defensive game is really nonexistent. You can get what Sanguinetti is gonna give you with a guy like Dick Tarnstrom or Sandzis Ozolynsh. He is in my opinion the beneficiary of a ridiculously weak draft class for defensemen and normally would be taken at the bottom of the first round or the early second.

imo: Jiri Tlusty < Patrik Stefan. Not quite a bust, but he won't add up to much either.

 

[Habsaku]

This thread is ridiculous, every team before Montreal should avoid Kessel at all cost

 

[firstroundbust]

The biggest gamble would be to take Nigel Williams in the top 15.

a gamble he is...he has Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge potential...

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

This thread is ridiculous, every team before Montreal should avoid Kessel at all cost

The Habs would take Jonathan Bernier over Kessel anyways.

 

[Hawerchuk9]

The Habs would take Jonathan Bernier over Kessel anyways.

 

[Safir*]

Ondrej Fiala. I think that he'll never make to the NHL. Too much of project and won't put it all together. (that's partly a gut feeling.)

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

First off, Kelly is a late birthdate, so he had an extra season of development. At the age of 17, he scored 29 points to Calla's 33.

Second, Kelly *was* projected as a checker when drafted:

He wasn't exactly a blue-chip offensive prospect. Scouting reports at the time emphasized his character, work-ethic, and puck pursuit abilities. It took him 4 pro seasons to develop into more than a 3rd/4th line player in the AHL.

Third, Calla's numbers are skewed because he plays for the most defensive team in the most defensive league in the CHL. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he's have scored 45-50 points if he were in the OHL or the QMJHL. Greg's post earlier covers this pretty well.

Lastly, Calla has a lot more to show at the WHL levle than he did this year. Hell, his goal total dropped from his 16 y/o season. Coming into the league he was projected as a scorer, and I'd fully expect he scores 60-70 points next year for Everett. Still doesn't have top-6 upside but he isn't some no-talent grunt at this level.

He is rated highly for a reason ... NHL skating ability, good size, lots of hustle and ability to pressure the puck in all three zones. He just doesn't seem to have hands at this point.

__________

I agree with much of what you're saying in general. I just think you're mis-pigeonholing Calla based on his numbers. He isn't Jerred Smithson ... he will be a top-6 forward in the WHL for the next two seasons, and has enough talent to think he can score 20-30 points in the NHL.

That said, yes he is rated too high. But he is a strong bet to be a contributing NHL player.

Well, let's not carried away on the birthdays. Kelly was basically 4-5 months or so older than Calla when he was drafted (Nov v March birthdays), and you're taking stats from the year before based on this? That doesn't really make sense, as their draft year stats are more closely linked based on age. (this isn't like comparing the draft years of Jordan and Eric Staal, which really was close to a year difference).

And are the scouting reports you're referencing from 1999? The one I have talks about his offensive ability, but size and strength limitations. It's only one report though. The reports I've seen from the last two years in the AHL are in line with what you have, but by that time the transformation had taken place.

As to the other comments re Calla, those are fair points. I haven't seen him play, so I was really just pointing out a general rule that might apply to Calla, but there are definitely exceptions as you and others have pointed out. Especially in the WHL this year given the low scoring versus the O and Q.

 

[hoppy]

The Habs would take Jonathan Bernier over Kessel anyways.

LMAO!!

 

[insider]

Bryce Swan

what? why?

 

[plaugher]

what? why?

Probably because of his injury-plagued 05-06 campaign. Or just grabbed a name out of a hat. One or the other.