Friedman: Oilers offseason moves?

[YakDavid]

This is the funny thing about message boards. I would say, a significant amount of Senators fans I have seen online dislike the idea of trading Hoffman for RNH. Both Oilers fans replying here are telling me that value wise, RNH is superior to Hoffman.

What is your perception of RNH's value? Do you have some examples of what you'd expect in return for him from different teams or in different scenarios. I am just curious.

Honestly its really tough to actually pinpoint value. To me I just see Nuge as a more complete player. He is a center and is quite good two way. He hasn't panned out to be as much offense as we expected but he is a smart player. He has 19 goals which is 2 less than Hoffman in less games. That include with him being four years younger. Though he is 800k more expensive than Hoffman. I just think the value doesn't quite line up.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think you guys should keep Hoffman. I'm sure you can get a much better Center than RNH for him. I'm sure you could list a few right now.

When did I say or allude the idea that the Senators could get a much better center than RNH for Hoffman? Why are you being so defensive about me asking for you to give me more insight on your perception of a player's value?

If you want me to talk about Hoffman. I would imagine the offers for him were somewhere around what everybody else went for at the deadline (Late 1st, prospect, third piece). The rumoured STL offer was Kyrou+2nd. This is why he is still a Senator, and is probably why the Senators are exploring a "hockey trade" for him because trading a player like Hoffman for futures in a down market for wingers would be a mistake.

Value is fluid in the NHL. Changes from team to team based on need. What we know is that EDM wants to move one of their expensive Cs, and they want to find a winger to play with McDavid. The trade makes sense.

There aren't any Cs rumoured to be on the market right now, so I can't really comment on who I think Hoffman would go for. Most trades are situational, which is why I asked you about your insight on his value to different teams and in different scenarios. The Senators are a team in transition. They don't badly need any piece because there is no longer any pressure or willingness to win now. So I would imagine it's either, do the trade or don't do it, it's not a situation where the Oilers can extort value out of the Senators because there aren't any Cs on the market and the Sens are afraid to have JGP as their 2C in 18-19.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

When did I say or allude the idea that the Senators could get a much better center than RNH for Hoffman? Why are you being so defensive about me asking for you to give me more insight on your perception of a player's value?

If you want me to talk about Hoffman. I would imagine the offers for him were somewhere around what everybody else went for at the deadline (Late 1st, prospect, third piece). The rumoured STL offer was Kyrou+2nd. This is why he is still a Senator, and is probably why the Senators are exploring a "hockey trade" for him because trading a player like Hoffman for futures in a down market for wingers would be a mistake.

Value is fluid in the NHL. Changes from team to team based on need. What we know is that EDM wants to move one of their expensive Cs, and they want to find a winger to play with McDavid. The trade makes sense.

There aren't any Cs rumoured to be on the market right now, so I can't really comment on who I think Hoffman would go for. Most trades are situational, which is why I asked you about your insight on his value to different teams and in different scenarios. The Senators are a team in transition. They don't badly need any piece because there is no longer any pressure or willingness to win now. So I would imagine it's either, do the trade or don't do it, it's not a situation where the Oilers can extort value out of the Senators because there aren't any Cs on the market and the Sens are afraid to have JGP as their 2C in 18-19.

You were the one who thought a one for one trade was good value and challenged others to tell you why that was not true.

You answered your own question.

Down year for wingers, crappy trade offers from other teams (according to the Senators), no other centers available. A fast, soft, older winger with a really good shot isn't worth a younger RNH. Hoffman would probably get run over in the West.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

IMO the idea is alright. The issue is Hoffman is already 28 and he will be in the down turn of his career soon and the Oilers are still 3-4 years away from competing. If Hoffman was a few years younger I think it makes a lot of sense. At the moment? No, Oilers too far away from a cup.

What's the plan in EDM if being too far away from the cup to make the team better is the mentality though? I don't follow every other team with the same amount of dedication as I do the Senators, so has there been something put out there that pinpoints the Oilers plan on taking a few steps back to try and rebuild?

The reality is, Hoffman gives the Oilers a cost controlled winger who under Guy Boucher over the last two seasons has put up an average of 27 goals per 82 games on a team with an awful PP that plays an offensively stifling system.

What could he do on Edmonton under a more offensive system playing with McDavid? The last time Hoffman played in a run and gun system (Dave Cameron) he put up 26 ES goals his first season which was 8th in the entire league (Tarasenko had 29, Ovechkin 28), Hoffman then put up 23 ES goals in his 2nd season.

He's signed for two more seasons at just a shade above 5M. EDM is not giving up futures for him, they are making a hockey trade in this scenario. So even if he walks in 2 years, they get two years out of him at a below market value cap.

Now, if you disagree that Hoffman in and RNH out is a better fit for EDM, then all this is irrelevant. But this post is in response to people who seem to agree it is a better fit but only if EDM gets additional value in the form of futures from OTT. It doesn't mean OTT loses, but in this scenario, I think EDM wins. They get the better fit for two years at a very manageable cap hit. They also get a player whose past goal totals dictate that he might not be playing under a coach that allows his strengths to work in his favour.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

You were the one who thought a one for one trade was good value and challenged others to tell you why that was not true.

You answered your own question.

Down year for wingers, crappy trade offers from other teams (according to the Senators), no other centers available. A fast, soft, older winger with a really good shot isn't worth a younger RNH. Hoffman would probably get run over in the West.

Your last paragraph shows you're either completely ignoring the content of my posts, or cherry picking. You've jumped through hoops not to answer a very simple question about how you perceive RNH's value when I was willing to do the same for Hoffman. I also explained why in spite of the weak market for wingers, I think a 1 for 1 hockey trade would still make sense.

What makes you think Hoffman would get run over in the West? How much do you watch Hoffman play? He is incredibly elusive and completely avoids contact, he won't get run over int he west because he doesn't engage physically very often and when he does have the puck always has his head up in order to avoid the previously mentioned physical engagement.....

He's more of a finisher rather than a guy who has to retrieve and carry the puck. His speed would allow him to keep up with McDavid in transition and get up the ice to support or find space for an open shot.

 

[HollaHaula]

Nuge is a C. Hoffman a W. The Oilers once got Pat Maroon for garbage.

There are a lot more W's in this league than 1A 1B C's.

Nuge has boat loads more value than MH.

Yes, and then the Oilers gave away Pat Maroon for garbage.

 

[CycloneSweep]

What's the plan in EDM if being too far away from the cup to make the team better is the mentality though? I don't follow every other team with the same amount of dedication as I do the Senators, so has there been something put out there that pinpoints the Oilers plan on taking a few steps back to try and rebuild?

The reality is, Hoffman gives the Oilers a cost controlled winger who under Guy Boucher over the last two seasons has put up an average of 27 goals per 82 games on a team with an awful PP that plays an offensively stifling system.

What could he do on Edmonton under a more offensive system playing with McDavid? The last time Hoffman played in a run and gun system (Dave Cameron) he put up 26 ES goals his first season which was 8th in the entire league (Tarasenko had 29, Ovechkin 28), Hoffman then put up 23 ES goals in his 2nd season.

He's signed for two more seasons at just a shade above 5M. EDM is not giving up futures for him, they are making a hockey trade in this scenario. So even if he walks in 2 years, they get two years out of him at a below market value cap.

Now, if you disagree that Hoffman in and RNH out is a better fit for EDM, then all this is irrelevant. But this post is in response to people who seem to agree it is a better fit but only if EDM gets additional value in the form of futures from OTT. It doesn't mean OTT loses, but in this scenario, I think EDM wins. They get the better fit for two years at a very manageable cap hit. They also get a player whose past goal totals dictate that he might not be playing under a coach that allows his strengths to work in his favour.

Hoffman is also 28 and could be on the down turn of his career too. It's a major risk moving a guy who could be McDavids long term winger (RNH, who is having a better scoring year than Hoffman overall and played with Lucic most of the year) for a guy who last year scored a lot but is 28.

It would be a good hockey trade if say the Oilers were a bubble team or a playoff team that needed that extra boost to get us over the hump.

But we are not. It would be a slight improvement this year but it would end up being a downgrade after that.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Hoffman is also 28 and could be on the down turn of his career too. It's a major risk moving a guy who could be McDavids long term winger (RNH, who is having a better scoring year than Hoffman overall and played with Lucic most of the year) for a guy who last year scored a lot but is 28.

It would be a good hockey trade if say the Oilers were a bubble team or a playoff team that needed that extra boost to get us over the hump.

But we are not. It would be a slight improvement this year but it would end up being a downgrade after that.

RNH is currently riding a career high shooting percentage with the opposite going for Hoffman. Since playing with Duchene in the last two months Hoffman has 9 goals and 19 points in 21 games. Prior to that, he spent significant time during Guy Boucher's run as coach playing with Pageau and Pyatt at even strength. Hoffman has probably had worse wingers throughout the last two years in Ottawa on average than RNH has in EDM.

So if we're going to look at RNH in a certain light where his numbers are suppressed based on situation, I think it's only fair to explore whether the same has been true with Hoffman.

There's also evidence I pointed out in past posts (6th in ES goals in the entire league under Cameron's more run and gun system) that Hoffman's goal scoring could rise significantly in the right kind of system, or more accurately that Hoffman is not a good fit under Guy Boucher in Ottawa and his numbers are being suppressed here as a result.

If you like RNH better than Hoffman on McDavid's wing, feel he is a better fit, that's your opinion and you're equally as entitled to it as me thinking Hoffman is a better fit in EDM than RNH. But the main thing I am arguing against is people in this thread who do think Hoffman is a better fit, but don't think 1 for 1 is fair.

 

[CycloneSweep]

RNH is currently riding a career high shooting percentage with the opposite going for Hoffman. Since playing with Duchene in the last two months Hoffman has 9 goals and 19 points in 21 games. Prior to that, he spent significant time during Guy Boucher's run as coach playing with Pageau and Pyatt at even strength. Hoffman has probably had worse wingers throughout the last two years in Ottawa on average than RNH has in EDM.

So if we're going to look at RNH in a certain light where his numbers are suppressed based on situation, I think it's only fair to explore whether the same has been true with Hoffman.

There's also evidence I pointed out in past posts (6th in ES goals in the entire league under Cameron's more run and gun system) that Hoffman's goal scoring could rise significantly in the right kind of system, or more accurately that Hoffman is not a good fit under Guy Boucher in Ottawa and his numbers are being suppressed here as a result.

If you like RNH better than Hoffman on McDavid's wing, feel he is a better fit, that's your opinion and you're equally as entitled to it as me thinking Hoffman is a better fit in EDM than RNH. But the main thing I am arguing against is people in this thread who do think Hoffman is a better fit, but don't think 1 for 1 is fair.

Centers have more value than wingers.

RNH is having a good year, Hoffman is having a low year. So current value is not even 1 for 1. Probably a 3/4 round pick or a prospect added to Hoffman would be fair.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Centers have more value than wingers.

RNH is having a good year, Hoffman is having a low year. So current value is not even 1 for 1. Probably a 3/4 round pick or a prospect added to Hoffman would be fair.

Except RNH is a winger now

 

[TFHockey]

When did I say or allude the idea that the Senators could get a much better center than RNH for Hoffman? Why are you being so defensive about me asking for you to give me more insight on your perception of a player's value?

If you want me to talk about Hoffman. I would imagine the offers for him were somewhere around what everybody else went for at the deadline (Late 1st, prospect, third piece). The rumoured STL offer was Kyrou+2nd. This is why he is still a Senator, and is probably why the Senators are exploring a "hockey trade" for him because trading a player like Hoffman for futures in a down market for wingers would be a mistake.

Value is fluid in the NHL. Changes from team to team based on need. What we know is that EDM wants to move one of their expensive Cs, and they want to find a winger to play with McDavid. The trade makes sense.

There aren't any Cs rumoured to be on the market right now, so I can't really comment on who I think Hoffman would go for. Most trades are situational, which is why I asked you about your insight on his value to different teams and in different scenarios. The Senators are a team in transition. They don't badly need any piece because there is no longer any pressure or willingness to win now. So I would imagine it's either, do the trade or don't do it, it's not a situation where the Oilers can extort value out of the Senators because there aren't any Cs on the market and the Sens are afraid to have JGP as their 2C in 18-19.

This is a pretty rational post.

RNH, to most Edmonton fans, holds a lot of value. He probably holds more value to the Edmonton Oilers than other clubs because they have spent a lot of time and money developing him into the player he is today. He is a rock solid 2 way player who is a very, very good 2C just hitting his prime. He can fill in as a 1C for a time, but I wouldn't necessarily count on him to be your #1C if you're hoping to be a playoff team. If he continues to play the way he did before he got hurt (broken ribs from a hellacious hit) and he is looking great so far, I would value him a bit over Hoffman. RNH plays a more valuable position but Hoffman gets more points. Hoffman also costs a little bit less in cap, around $800,000, but is 4 years older. It's pretty close.

I can tell you this: if the Sens manage to acquire RNH in some way or another they won't be disappointed.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

This is a pretty rational post.

RNH, to most Edmonton fans, holds a lot of value. He probably holds more value to the Edmonton Oilers than other clubs because they have spent a lot of time and money developing him into the player he is today. He is a rock solid 2 way player who is a very, very good 2C just hitting his prime. He can fill in as a 1C for a time, but I wouldn't necessarily count on him to be your #1C if you're hoping to be a playoff team. If he continues to play the way he did before he got hurt (broken ribs from a hellacious hit) and he is looking great so far, I would value him a bit over Hoffman. RNH plays a more valuable position but Hoffman gets more points. Hoffman also costs a little bit less in cap, around $800,000, but is 4 years older. It's pretty close.

I can tell you this: if the Sens manage to acquire RNH in some way or another they won't be disappointed.

RNH is a very good player. I agree with how you've described him above. I won't regurgitate everything I have already said in multiple posts, but I think based on Hoffman's poor fit in Ottawa and what I think would be a fantastic fit in EDM, I think this is genuinely a win-win hockey trade that both sides should do.

 

[cobra427]

Eberle was dealt at a low value point and the return wasn't good as Strome isn't very good. That's bad player recognition.

Reinhart for that 1st rounder was awful. All the signs that Reinhart was already a bust were there. Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot were taken with the next two picks after Barzal so good chance the Oilers would have taken 1 of the 3 and been a lot better off now and for years.

Then mix in the Hall trade. The cost of Dman is high but Vatanen, Leddy, Boychuk, Hamilton, Scandella came in a heck of a lot lower than what the Oilers paid for Larsson. Chia is also the guy who dealt out Petry and Schultz for almost nothing and both have flourished elsewhere.

Then mix in the Lucic signing that is already looking awful.

Then mix in the 8.5 signing for Drai well comparable players like Pasternik (6.66), Kuznetsov (7.8) signed for a fair bit less.

Then mix in the inability to find a decent backup goalie.

Chiarelli has been a downright awful GM for the Oilers.

Agree with this post. 5 players, Hall/Eberle/Petry/Shultz/Duby, have left the Oilers and played better in another market. That tells me they are not getting the most out of their players. Outside of Talbot last year, I can't think of any other players that have improved their play with the Oilers. The Lucic signing was a big mistake and the over payment for Drai wasn't smart either.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

RNH, Oscar Klefbom, 2018 1st and Matt Benning, Ethan Bear or Tyler Benson for Hoffman and Karlsson.

RNH > Hoffman a bit
Klefbom, lottery pick, Bear/Benson/Benning < Karlsson a bit

Fair trade for both sides.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

RNH has 2-1-3 in 3 games and has 9 SOG since being paired up with McDavid.

Don’t need to trade for McDavid’s winger when you’ve found McDavid’s winger.

 

[CupofOil]

Thing is it would be terrible value for Nuge.

Not really. Hoffman for RNH is pretty equal value but I'm fairly unenthused about that trade from an Oilers perspective although I can understand the interest from a needs perspective. I just value RNH's versatility more than Hoffman's goal scoring ability.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

RNH, Oscar Klefbom, 2018 1st and Matt Benning, Ethan Bear or Tyler Benson for Hoffman and Karlsson.

RNH > Hoffman a bit
Klefbom, lottery pick, Bear/Benson/Benning < Karlsson a bit

Fair trade for both sides.

Disgusting

 

[Cup or Bust]

RNH has 2-1-3 in 3 games and has 9 SOG since being paired up with McDavid.

Don’t need to trade for McDavid’s winger when you’ve found McDavid’s winger.

I definitely want to see how Hopkins ends the year on McDavid's wing. If he can continue to play the way he has it makes no sense to trade him. If anything they just need to find a reasonable right winger, a guy that at least could score 20 goals. No more of these Aberg (Unless he starts to show some assertiveness) and Cammalleri nonsense to start next season as top 6 wingers. I know the Oilers will have cap issues, but there has to be better options then that.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

I think we all know Chiarelli is going to do something stupid.

If you think he's going to trade Nugent-Hopkins for Faulk he's going to trade him for Boychuk and if you think he's going to trade Klefbom for Connor he's going to trade him for Dal Colle.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I definitely want to see how Hopkins ends the year on McDavid's wing. If he can continue to play the way he has it makes no sense to trade him. If anything they just need to find a reasonable right winger, a guy that at least could score 20 goals. No more of these Aberg (Unless he starts to show some assertiveness) and Cammalleri nonsense to start next season as top 6 wingers. I know the Oilers will have cap issues, but there has to be better options then that.

Aberg’s actually been ok too - 6 shots, +3. Only one assist but he’s had some dangerous looks since the RNH-97-Aberg line has been put together. You’re right tho he’s much better suited to the bottom six.

My bet is Maroon comes back relatively cheaply and there’s way too much smoke around Ottawa and Edmonton for me to believe that we don’t want Hoffman badly.

 

[Kale Hulls]

Chia has been so bad for this franchise. He had all the assets in the world and he made the worst decisions at the worst times. Right now the only moves I'd make if I were him would be to fire the special teams coaches, and maybe get a top 4 LHD. Try to shed that Lucic contract, that's going to be tough tho. Next year I think having a healthy Klefbom is going to make a world of difference.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Aberg’s actually been ok too - 6 shots, +3. Only one assist but he’s had some dangerous looks since the RNH-97-Aberg line has been put together. You’re right tho he’s much better suited to the bottom six.

My bet is Maroon comes back relatively cheaply and there’s way too much smoke around Ottawa and Edmonton for me to believe that we don’t want Hoffman badly.

Aberg is a bottom 6 guy at best who looks super lost in the top 6.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Oilers put themself in their current situation by making rash decisions.

I think they should see how the team plays next year before blowing anything up.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I definitely want to see how Hopkins ends the year on McDavid's wing. If he can continue to play the way he has it makes no sense to trade him. If anything they just need to find a reasonable right winger, a guy that at least could score 20 goals. No more of these Aberg (Unless he starts to show some assertiveness) and Cammalleri nonsense to start next season as top 6 wingers. I know the Oilers will have cap issues, but there has to be better options then that.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly. Just need a guy who can keep up with the play and is good to pot 20 goals a season. I think Grabner (UFA) would be a decent option, depending how much he commands.

Anyone have any guesses on what Grabner will get as a UFA? I'm thinking between 4-5 million over a 3-4 year deal, but that's just a wild guess. If we could get him for 4 to 4.5 mil per year for 4 years I'd do it. RNH-McDavid-Grabner would be a very fun line to watch.

 

[Soundwave]

They should do nothing major, the worst thing they could do now is make another "Chiarelli dumb trade".

Forget it. Be honest with the fans and admit you've made some mistakes and are going to focus on developing Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bear, and the top 10 pick from the 2018 draft (Tkachuk/Boqvist/Bouchard/whoever) and looking for bounce back seasons from Klefbom and Talbot.

Losing a trade on Klefbom or RNH is the last thing that needs to be done and Bob Nicholson should veto that if Chiarelli wants to do it.