Speculation: Oilers hire Tyler Dellow

Master Lok

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Jul 31, 2003
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Thanks and exactly. This is not even supposition when Eakins and MacT had been stating they were looking at his work and consulting it BEFORE the hire. Not sure how that's hard to understand.

But it is incredibly difficult to understand when Dellow's publicized opinion was to criticize the Oilers signing of Nikitin...

And the original posters comment was blaming Dellow for the Oilers signing of Nikitin even though

a) Dellow wasn't hired by the Oilers yet
and
b) Dellow publically criticized the Oilers signing of Nikitin.

This is crazy talk.
 

Arpeggio

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Jul 20, 2006
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Why is everyone ignoring the fact that this team didn't do any of the things that a guy like Dellow would support? They signed Nikitin, Dellow wouldn't have wanted that. He may have supported the signing or Pouliot and bringing Purcell in, I don't think either of those guys are the reason the team sucks though. He certainly would have Marancin playing more and Schultz and Ference playing less.

Also Dellow didn't just send corsi numbers to MacT, his stats were a lot more in depth than that. People have to realize that corsi is like twenty years behind what is actually being used now.

Edit: I think it's more likely, given many people's experience with Dellow, that the management group just didn't get along with him. Especially considering MacT is still a proponent of using advanced stats.
 

OiledUp

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So because of that Dellow can be blamed for any of the Oilers transactions even before he was hired?

When the Oilers signed Nikitin, Dellow at the time, was not employed by the organization and heavily criticized the signing and Nikitin.

Because Eakins claims to have consulted with Dellow before the actual hiring date... and the Oilers signed Nikitin despite going against Dellow's publicized opinion - Dellow is still responsible and should be blamed for the Nikitin signing?

HOW IN THE WORLD DO YOU COME TO THAT CONCLUSION?
-
This is beyond ridiculous.

How the hell did you come to the conclusion that I came to that conclusion when you read my post?

I was just pointing out that just because Dellow wasn't officially hired it didn't mean he had no input before since Eakins said they consulted him during the months leading up to the hire. It was an answer to the statement that there was no way he was involved since he was hired afterwards. I made a point of the fact none of us knows who pushed for which signing. A good guess is that Nikitin was a Howson hire. But we don't know and the discussion was about the other signings as well, who were more "advanced stats sexy"
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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Our Corsi stats have actually gone off a cliff since Nelson took over 100%. Although by the eye test the team looks more competitive. Will be curious to see if that continues. We're kinda back to Krueger days where we can stay in games but we're giving up more shots than we take, largely because our D just isn't that good at moving the puck, and it's gonna get a lot worse after we trade Petry for a pick.

Still, if this trend does continue with the current group, it suggests and Eakins, maybe with the help of Dellow, were able to develop a system that turned the tables on Corsi. As we all know however, it didn't turn the tables in scoring chances nearly as much, and it definitely didn't turn the tables for actual results in the standings. Maybe if Eakins knew how to run practice properly it would have been a different story. Lots of the woes of the team we're finding out were due to a lack of intensity in practice which may have hurt the goalies harder than anyone else because they go into real games ice cold after lame practices of standing around.
 

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Just out of curiosity who is Dave Lozo (or whoever it is that stated this) The sources that stated Dellows isn't are known media sources. I've never heard of this source before.
 

rasarhdasd

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He writes for the Bleacher Report, but he knows Dellow enough to know whether or not he's still working for the Oilers.

When have the Oilers beat writers broken anything?
 

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He writes for the Bleacher Report, but he knows Dellow enough to know whether or not he's still working for the Oilers.

When have the Oilers beat writers broken anything?

Just that its the first I ever heard of him anywhere. He's a blogger who apparently has got a couple of quasi writing gigs. Maybe he has insider information here.

So you know beyond a reasonable doubt that Dave Lazo has intimate knowledge and knows Dellow, and knows that Dellow is still employed. Are you sure?

In anycase at this point if Dellows is working for the Oilers (In Toronto) its probably just breaking down game films. With the Oilers reportedly having a more accomplished individual that they are engaging in Edmonton that also works in Advanced Stats.
 

dyzfunctioned

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Oct 4, 2012
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Just out of curiosity who is Dave Lozo (or whoever it is that stated this) The sources that stated Dellows isn't are known media sources. I've never heard of this source before.

It's been confirmed by Mirtle as well as others.

"Yep... this is true.
RT @DaveLozo: Tyler Dellow (@mc79hockey) is still employed by the Oilers."

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/553777260332064768

Spector and Tychowski, the guys who the speculation about Dellow being fired came from, are very vocal about their dislike for Dellow.
 

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It's been confirmed by Mirtle as well as others.

"Yep... this is true.
RT @DaveLozo: Tyler Dellow (@mc79hockey) is still employed by the Oilers."

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/553777260332064768

Spector and Tychowski, the guys who the speculation about Dellow being fired came from, are very vocal about their dislike for Dellow.

Thanks for the clarification, this is more helpful information and source. At least Mirtle is a known and recognized source.

Still, if you're Spector and Tychkowski your comments are public, and engaged in with respect to employ. Maybe I'm old fashioned and feel that people in such employ should act somewhat responsibly in respect of their credibility (unlike myself as a random messageboard poster) but I'm raising there is a cost to Tych and Spector doing this if they are proved wrong. Its one thing to have a dislike and to further rumor, its another if it has connection with what you do for a living. Why engage in that cost.

I'm still wondering if theres smoke or fire. Maybe the Skype justn't hasn't happened yet. (I'm jk with the latter, go easy) ;)

cheers in anycase
 
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dyzfunctioned

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Just that its the first I ever heard of him anywhere. He's a blogger who apparently has got a couple of quasi writing gigs. Maybe he has insider information here.

So you know beyond a reasonable doubt that Dave Lazo has intimate knowledge and knows Dellow, and knows that Dellow is still employed. Are you sure?

In anycase at this point if Dellows is working for the Oilers (In Toronto) its probably just breaking down game films. With the Oilers reportedly having a more accomplished individual that they are engaging in Edmonton that also works in Advanced Stats.

The Oilers have used advanced stats for years, and as mentioned, they've been working with Dark Horse Analytics since at least early 2012 - possibly before, but this is when it became public anyways.

Dellow is a lot more public/controversial figure, and therefore his hiring brought a lot more attention to the topic.

FWIW, Dellow was always based in Toronto but was making trips out to Edmonton.
 

SarahCrash

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Dec 17, 2005
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Hire people smarter than yourself.

Good job MacT!

...sure the Oilers worked with stats before, but, not to the level a team like Pittsburgh, Columbus or Los Angeles does. They have the top 3 analyst teams and all have a mix of in-house analysts and 3rd party consultants.
 
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Ogopogo*

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Thanks for the clarification, this is more helpful information and source. At least Mirtle is a known and recognized source.

Still, if you're Spector and Tychkowski your comments are public, and engaged in with respect to employ. Maybe I'm old fashioned and feel that people in such employ should act somewhat responsibly in respect of their credibility (unlike myself as a random messageboard poster) but I'm raising there is a cost to Tych and Spector doing this if they are proved wrong. Its one thing to have a dislike and to further rumor, its another if it has connection with what you do for a living. Why engage in that cost.

I'm still wondering if theres smoke or fire. Maybe the Skype justn't hasn't happened yet. (I'm jk with the latter, go easy) ;)

cheers in anycase

Although he has consumed so much of the Corsi Kool-Aid that he is now brewing the stuff. I unfollowed Mirtle months ago - listening to guys crow on about the value of Corsi is worse than watching chick flicks. The cult has a strong hold on Mirtle.
 

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Although he has consumed so much of the Corsi Kool-Aid that he is now brewing the stuff. I unfollowed Mirtle months ago - listening to guys crow on about the value of Corsi is worse than watching chick flicks. The cult has a strong hold on Mirtle.

Heres what I find sad. Is that several bloggers, posters, that used to be just good solid allround writers have now become very specifically into writing about advanced stats. To a degree where their other, and previous content has been pushed to the side.

A lot of these guys were very interesting writers writing anything about hockey before being swallowed hole by advanced stats topics.

Its like hearing people talk about apple, or as you said a cult. The person just ends up talking about one thing primarily.
 

Gobo

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Please don't take this as an attack on you Norm, it's more directed towards anyone who shares a similar opinion that corsi has no merit, etc.

Although he has consumed so much of the Corsi Kool-Aid that he is now brewing the stuff. I unfollowed Mirtle months ago - listening to guys crow on about the value of Corsi is worse than watching chick flicks. The cult has a strong hold on Mirtle.

I've always wondered this. What is that makes corsi "wrong" to so many of you? Is outshooting the opposition not always a good thing? Do you not believe that their are underlying things that could be happening that we can't always catch when watching a game? What is it that makes it so hard to accept?

If the Oilers generate more shots and allow less shots when player A is on the ice, relative to player B does that not help their chances to win? Are shots not an easy way to estimate how frequently a team is one end or the other? You'd expect dominant teams/players to get more shots and allow less.

In no way am I saying that corsi is the be-all, end-all. In fact, I don't think there are many influential "stats" guys you could find that would say that. It's just a fairly decent way to approximate success, that has proven true on multiple occasions. I'm all for "feelings" and intuition about a player, but that holds only so much value unless its proven in some manner.
 

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Please don't take this as an attack on you Norm, it's more directed towards anyone who shares a similar opinion that corsi has no merit, etc.



I've always wondered this. What is that makes corsi "wrong" to so many of you? Is outshooting the opposition not always a good thing? Do you not believe that their are underlying things that could be happening that we can't always catch when watching a game? What is it that makes it so hard to accept?

If the Oilers generate more shots and allow less shots when player A is on the ice, relative to player B does that not help their chances to win? Are shots not an easy way to estimate how frequently a team is one end or the other? You'd expect dominant teams/players to get more shots and allow less.

It isn't wrong anymore than its wrong to listen to only Rock music. Personally I prefer to listen to pretty much everything and see it to. Including advanced stats but not limited by it. For some reason, and I don't know why the people that do tend to focus on advanced stats start doing it to the exclusion of how they used to write. It takes seeing what these bloggers write for several years to witness the changes. Mirtle certainly being a good example. From generalist to specifist. I just find the latter boring. I would rather have general focus.
 

CanadianSuperPromise

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Aug 21, 2012
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I've always wondered this. What is that makes corsi "wrong" to so many of you?

This. I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why (shot attempts for - shot attempts against) is such a bogus stat? Is it slightly disingenuous for analyzing individual play, although Corsi Rel tries to alleviate this, yeah sure; but for team play, corsi is pretty damn intelligent.
 

Jumptheshark

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Well, Dellow is still with the Oilers.

"@DaveLozo: I’m going to put this out there because this seems to be a thing but Tyler Dellow (@mc79hockey) is still employed by the Oilers."

https://twitter.com/davelozo/status/553751424006639616

he is getting paid--by getting paid he is still employed by the oilers--but reports are he has "japaned" (for those who never heard the expression--sacking someone in Japan is very difficult--so instead of firing someone they reassign them to the "white room" where they are told to stare at the wall all day--they are still employed and they have a job--to stare at a wall--this is what Dellow is doing till his contract ends)
 

CanadianSuperPromise

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Even if the Oilers did fire mudcrutch that doesn't mean they stopped using analytics. The Oilers currently have (to public knowledge) at least three different groups of analytics. One is Dark Horse analytics, another is a group of bloggers and hockey writers and the other is Dellow. I believe Dellow was hired as Eakins' main guy.
 

MessierII

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Aug 10, 2011
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This. I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why (shot attempts for - shot attempts against) is such a bogus stat? Is it slightly disingenuous for analyzing individual play, although Corsi Rel tries to alleviate this, yeah sure; but for team play, corsi is pretty damn intelligent.
The big hole in advanced stats is the scoring chance. The point of hockey is to maximize your own scoring chances and minimize your opponents. All shot attempts aren't equal that's why it's a misleading stat,
 
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Ogopogo*

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This. I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why (shot attempts for - shot attempts against) is such a bogus stat? Is it slightly disingenuous for analyzing individual play, although Corsi Rel tries to alleviate this, yeah sure; but for team play, corsi is pretty damn intelligent.

For individuals, it is complete garbage. You cannot hang a stat on an individual that is actually the measure of 12 players on the ice. Should I blame you when the guy beside you at work ********d up? That's exactly what Corsi does.

As a team measure, it is little more than shots on goal - which have been compiled for years. In fact, shots on goal is a better measure because it actually credits a team for beating the defense and getting the puck on goal - Corsi is crediting teams for firing the puck in the general direction of the net, no matter what happens.

Corsi provides no value or insight yet, those in the Corsi Cult cling to it like it is the holy grail in the evaluation of teams and players. It adds nothing and simply misleads in regards to individuals.
 

Ogopogo*

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Please don't take this as an attack on you Norm, it's more directed towards anyone who shares a similar opinion that corsi has no merit, etc.



I've always wondered this. What is that makes corsi "wrong" to so many of you? Is outshooting the opposition not always a good thing? Do you not believe that their are underlying things that could be happening that we can't always catch when watching a game? What is it that makes it so hard to accept?

If the Oilers generate more shots and allow less shots when player A is on the ice, relative to player B does that not help their chances to win? Are shots not an easy way to estimate how frequently a team is one end or the other? You'd expect dominant teams/players to get more shots and allow less.

In no way am I saying that corsi is the be-all, end-all. In fact, I don't think there are many influential "stats" guys you could find that would say that. It's just a fairly decent way to approximate success, that has proven true on multiple occasions. I'm all for "feelings" and intuition about a player, but that holds only so much value unless its proven in some manner.

No offense taken and none intended to you with my response.

If the "analytics" community actually measured INDIVIDUAL performance instead of a fancy shots on goal calculation, they might have something of value. Shots on goal has been measured for years, adding in misses really doesn't enhance the stat as missing the net is of less value than hitting the net. Corsi doesn't tell us anything more than shots on goal already did - it actually tells us less. Shots on goal actually credits the player who took the shot, Corsi doesn't even do that. Putting a team stat on an individual is stupid as well. 12 players on the ice means that any single player represents 8% of the players. It is completely flawed to give any individual a Corsi number based on the fact 11 other guys heavily influence the measure.

People say Corsi isn't the be all end all but it does provide value. Bull. A bad stat, multiplied by 1,000 just gets worse, not better. Corsi provides misinformation and confuses people. If you want to know which team carried the play, look at shots on goal. If you want to measure individual value, watch the individual and credit him for good plays and debit him for gaffes. Corsi is the lazy man's approach at analytics because nobody takes the time to measure individual contributions.

The fact that so many people point to Corsi as insight makes me shake my head. Confusion.
 

Gobo

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Jun 29, 2010
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No offense taken and none intended to you with my response.

If the "analytics" community actually measured INDIVIDUAL performance instead of a fancy shots on goal calculation, they might have something of value. Shots on goal has been measured for years, adding in misses really doesn't enhance the stat as missing the net is of less value than hitting the net. Corsi doesn't tell us anything more than shots on goal already did - it actually tells us less. Shots on goal actually credits the player who took the shot, Corsi doesn't even do that. Putting a team stat on an individual is stupid as well. 12 players on the ice means that any single player represents 8% of the players. It is completely flawed to give any individual a Corsi number based on the fact 11 other guys heavily influence the measure.

People say Corsi isn't the be all end all but it does provide value. Bull. A bad stat, multiplied by 1,000 just gets worse, not better. Corsi provides misinformation and confuses people. If you want to know which team carried the play, look at shots on goal. If you want to measure individual value, watch the individual and credit him for good plays and debit him for gaffes. Corsi is the lazy man's approach at analytics because nobody takes the time to measure individual contributions.

The fact that so many people point to Corsi as insight makes me shake my head. Confusion.

The purpose of corsi, from my understanding, is that it is an approximation for possession. Within that there is value. Obviously it is not a 100% accurate in any circumstance, however it tends to give us a larger sample size than strictly shots on goal while also seeming to be fairly accurate with regards to both good and bad players. It accurately assesses the lack of value a guy like Luke Gazdic has, while demonstrating the value of having an Anze Kopitar.

If Team A shoots 40 times but only 24 hit the net, while Team B hits the net with all 4 of their shots they'll be given the same shot total but who would you assume had possession of the puck more often? At a team level, that's all corsi really is. At an individual level I can see the flaws that it may have, but it still works in the same way. Yes, there are 10 players on the ice but certain players are obviously gonna be better at helping move the puck in a positive direction.

Also i'm not sure what you meant by "nobody takes the time to measure individual contributions".
 

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