Oilers analytic/advanced stat thread

Aceboogie

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Aug 25, 2012
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For sake of discussion, here is the top 30 D using the averaged WAR models

DIhiCNjUIAAh0-X.jpg:large


Probably disagree with half the list and its placements

And bottom D

DIkp3vnUwAAzsn0.jpg


To note: Its not supposed to be a definitive ranking. I really like the idea of WAR tho, just obviously needs more work
 

Zaddy

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Feb 8, 2013
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^Looks pretty good too me if it's only based on one season. Ellis is a hell of a defenseman and incredibly underrated. He may not have been the best D in the league this year but he's up there for sure. Also nice to see Jonas Brodin getting some recognition, considering how many people in here see him as a bottom-pair guy who isn't worth anything. And in contrast to that, Darnell Nurse who so many people love is 17th worst.
 

Aceboogie

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Aug 25, 2012
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^Looks pretty good too me if it's only based on one season. Ellis is a hell of a defenseman and incredibly underrated. He may not have been the best D in the league this year but he's up there for sure. Also nice to see Jonas Brodin getting some recognition, considering how many people in here see him as a bottom-pair guy who isn't worth anything. And in contrast to that, Darnell Nurse who so many people love is 17th worst.

I have Ellis in the top 30 easily (probably 10-15 range), but #1 is a little high. But both WAR models love the guy. Interesting to see Klefbom still in top 5 with both models. I do think ~27 of the top 30 D are legit top 30 D in the NHL, so I think its impressive for a WAR model to represent that. Id just rank those 27 guys a bit differently

I believe both models factor in 2 years of data (just going off memory from what I saw on twitter). Would make sense why Nurse is in bottom 30, his underlying numbers were atrocious in 15/16- but were pretty solid last year
 

Zaddy

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I have Ellis in the top 30 easily (probably 10-15 range), but #1 is a little high. But both WAR models love the guy. Interesting to see Klefbom still in top 5 with both models. I do think ~27 of the top 30 D are legit top 30 D in the NHL, so I think its impressive for a WAR model to represent that. Id just rank those 27 guys a bit differently

I believe both models factor in 2 years of data (just going off memory from what I saw on twitter). Would make sense why Nurse is in bottom 30, his underlying numbers were atrocious in 15/16- but were pretty solid last year

Probably helps Ellis that his D partner Ekholm is #11 on this list too. Those guys are both fantastic d-men and very underrated. Might be the best d pairing in the league. Ellis really opened my eyes this year. I thought he was particularly strong against the Oilers and probably a big reason why the team had so much trouble against Nashville.
 

Jejune

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Probably helps Ellis that his D partner Ekholm is #11 on this list too. Those guys are both fantastic d-men and very underrated. Might be the best d pairing in the league. Ellis really opened my eyes this year. I thought he was particularly strong against the Oilers and probably a big reason why the team had so much trouble against Nashville.

I'm pretty surprised Ellis is as good as he is. I always thought he would be more like the Danny Syvret/Ryan Murphy's of the world - undersized offensive defenseman that played on a stacked junior team and would have trouble translating that to the NHL. He proved me wrong for sure.
 

Aceboogie

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I'm pretty surprised Ellis is as good as he is. I always thought he would be more like the Danny Syvret/Ryan Murphy's of the world - undersized offensive defenseman that played on a stacked junior team and would have trouble translating that to the NHL. He proved me wrong for sure.

He spent several years learning the defensive side of the game. Doesnt hurt he was on stacked Nashville blueline and able to be sheltered + learn from the best. I think Ellis realized that offensively he wasnt going to cut it on that alone. Spent 4 years and 60 AHL games focusing on defense

In a sort of similar instance, Kris Russell also went from a high scoring CHL D to a defense first guy. He sacrificed way more offense than Ellis but both guys realized offense only wouldnt cut it and found ways to survive in the NHL
 

Zaddy

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Feb 8, 2013
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I'm pretty surprised Ellis is as good as he is. I always thought he would be more like the Danny Syvret/Ryan Murphy's of the world - undersized offensive defenseman that played on a stacked junior team and would have trouble translating that to the NHL. He proved me wrong for sure.

Yeah, it's pretty surprising to see a 5'10 offensive defenseman turn into a defensive stalwart and one of the better D in the league. Shows you that size isn't everything when it comes to defending, contrary to what most GM's believe(d). He's also on a sweetheart of a deal, 2.5M per, for another two years. Crazy. Nashville knows a thing or two about developing defensemen (and extending them long-term at a cheap rate too). Honestly, how crazy isn't it that they pay a combined $10.25M a year for Josi, Ellis and Ekholm? :amazed:
 

Aerrol

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Sep 18, 2014
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Crazy. Nashville knows a thing or two about developing defensemen (and extending them long-term at a cheap rate too). Honestly, how crazy isn't it that they pay a combined $10.25M a year for Josi, Ellis and Ekholm? :amazed:

...Holy ****. I had no idea they cost this little...damn. :amazed:
 

Senor Catface

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Jul 25, 2006
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“I think Corsi is garbage. It’s kind of a waste of time,†Eberle said. “I know stats. I pay attention to team puck possession – you know which teams are good at it. But I also think plus/minus is a waste of time, too. There was one year I had nine empty-net minuses.â€

Eberle and Eakins must have had a great working relationship.
 

MessierII

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Aug 10, 2011
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I'd like to take this moment to point out while fresh in people's minds why Klefbom is grossly overrated by analytics. Tons of shots so far this season but when they don't go in you remember how bad his defensive breakdowns are. This player has great potential but is not in the ballpark of being the number 1 D analytics suggest he is.
 

Aceboogie

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Early in the season and severe small sample size, but fun to look at:

DMm90dRWAAUE8Uu.jpg


DMm9nPQWkAEWSel.jpg


McDavid/Maroon/LD (or Yamamoto)/Klefbom/Larsson are forming pretty much a powerhouse 5 man unit and did so last year as well too
 

Aceboogie

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Aug 25, 2012
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As for the team: I think many people (myself included) got down on them to hard early on. Talbot has always been poor to start the year and we saw this same song and dance last year. But last year we had the lucky bounces early in the season to make up for it

6 games thru the season and the Oilers have the best possession numbers in the league (lead in all areas of CF%, Xgf%, SCF%, HDCF%, FF%). However have the 2nd lowest PDO in the league. The numbers suggest there is something big bubbling up underneath and we are just getting all the unlucky bounces plus usual medicore play from Talbot to start the year. In 2 or 3 games well have Draisaitl back and Talbot will be back to normal and I wouldn't be surprised to see this team take off in a major way

Basically if you could invest money into teams like a stock market, Id put a lot of money on the Oilers
 

Aceboogie

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Aug 25, 2012
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As for the team: I think many people (myself included) got down on them to hard early on. Talbot has always been poor to start the year and we saw this same song and dance last year. But last year we had the lucky bounces early in the season to make up for it

6 games thru the season and the Oilers have the best possession numbers in the league (lead in all areas of CF%, Xgf%, SCF%, HDCF%, FF%). However have the 2nd lowest PDO in the league. The numbers suggest there is something big bubbling up underneath and we are just getting all the unlucky bounces plus usual medicore play from Talbot to start the year. In 2 or 3 games well have Draisaitl back and Talbot will be back to normal and I wouldn't be surprised to see this team take off in a major way. Hopefully wed get some bounces our way as well

Basically if you could invest money into teams like a stock market, Id put a lot of money on the Oilers
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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I'd like to take this moment to point out while fresh in people's minds why Klefbom is grossly overrated by analytics. Tons of shots so far this season but when they don't go in you remember how bad his defensive breakdowns are. This player has great potential but is not in the ballpark of being the number 1 D analytics suggest he is.

Sucks our D situation doesn't let us drop him down while he struggles. Last year every time he was having a bad run, he could go on the 3rd pair with Benning and he would turn it around in a hurry, pad his analytics a bit and then hit the ground running again back up in the top 4. Now, just gotta keep riding him no matter what.

But, maybe it's good that he doesn't have an out like that anymore. He's gotta battle his way through this playing the same tough minutes like every other D expected to be a major contributor on his team.
 

nexttothemoon

and again...
Jan 30, 2010
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Montreal and Edmonton are both excellent in the corsi/shots stats and shockingly bad in the shooting pct and save percentage stats.

It's actually a pretty decent test of whether advanced stats is the truer picture of "goodness" of a team rather than the "reality" of plain old goals for and against and corsi/shots/scoring chances be damned.

I am a believer in the "reality" of goals for and against as that's what actually counts on the scoreboard and what actually wins/loses games... BUT I will say that I am actually of the belief that when the Oilers and Habs have such abnormally skewed stats like they currently have... regression to the mean HAS to occur and they will inevitably improve their goals for/against stats... BUT they certainly don't have to improve to above normal... they may merely improve to below average or mediocre.

I'm an Oilers fan so I certainly hope those excellent shots/corsi/scoring chances stats actually DO mean this team is heading upwards and towards more wins and a playoff spot eventually.

If they had crappy advanced stats AND couldn't score or keep the puck out of the net... well then I'd be on a ledge with the rest of the Chicken Little Brigade.
 

Arpeggio

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Jul 20, 2006
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What I'm seeing with my eyes matches what the stats are saying. They get more golden opportunities than the opposition pretty much every game. Against Washington the first line had multiple opportunities that they choked away by over passing or just being robbed by goaltending. Then they make a boneheaded mistake defensively and leave a guy wide open and that leads to a goal against.

If they can eliminate that boneheaded mistake, they'll start winning a lot of games. But it's not like that'll just happen, they need to actually learn to stop giving up those chances.
 

nexttothemoon

and again...
Jan 30, 2010
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Well they have to cash their chances (of which they are still getting plenty) AND they need to cut down on the defensive breakdowns which lead to other teams having easy goals.

That's tougher that it sounds of course though. The risk is over committing to defense and the offense dries up even more than it has so far. They are generating scoring chances but not capitalizing on them... while other teams are potting 2x as many goals on the same numbers of shots.

Special teams have been bad as well, which is an extension of their play at 5 on 5.

11 PP goals by the opposition and 1 shorty against for good measure. 4 PP goals by the Oilers. Special teams play alone is cooking the Oilers goose. Never mind shots or corsi or save/shooting percentages. Raw fact is they have been outscored 12 to 4 on the special teams = a lot of losses.

If they practiced nothing but the PP and PK and got that aspect together... that alone would be huge for the team.
 

McDNicks17

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Jul 1, 2010
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Awesome news. If I didn't know better, and follow hockey, I would expect we should be ripping up the standings then.

Corsi is only looked at when at 5v5, basically.

This team isn't losing because of 5v5. It's special teams. They've got a bottom 5 PP and a historically bad PK.

To put the PK in perspective, the Oilers are scored on just over 4.5 times the rate that LA's(#1 PK) is scored on.
 
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