Post-Game Talk: Oilers 3, Wild 2

[Kolja]

I think that's the best way to go. Strome seems lost as a support player to an elite talent, but if he's got the right wingers I'm fine with him centring the 3rd line. Especially if you can have Khaira and Kassian carrying the 4th.

Lucic-McDavid-Pulju
Cammy-RNH-Draisaitl
Maroon-Strome-Slepyshev
Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

I would switch Cam with Maroon, but other than that I like it. Tho I can't remember if RNH and Drai has shown chemistry before?

 

[48g90a138pts]

He was credited an assist on the Lucic goal, not the Puljujärvi goal.

I'm probably wrong, but I thought he should have got a assist on that one too. That's what I figured when I watched the game. Wish we could see the whole play.

 

[Yablo21]

When I think Looch couldn't go any lower, he does something like this and totally redeems himself.

 

[iCanada]

When I think Looch couldn't go any lower, he does something like this and totally redeems himself.

You realize Lucic has 19 ES points, right? That means he's tied with players like Pastrnak, Kessel, Neal, Toffoli... ahead of players like Crosby, Skinner, Toews, and Arvidsson.

Lucic has been pretty beast this year.

 

[Yablo21]

You realize Lucic has 19 ES points, right? That means he's tied with players like Pastrnak, Kessel, Neal, Toffoli... ahead of players like Crosby, Skinner, Toews, and Arvidsson.
Lucic has been pretty beast this year.

Oh I've been loving Lucic this year, just making a dumb and dumber joke. He was brutal earlier though, this is more of who I was expecting and its awesome!

 

[nexttothemoon]

Oilers were 7-12-2 in their first 21 games. They were outscored 53-72 over that stretch. 2.52 GF/G and 3.43 GA/G

Now 7-5 in their last 12... and have outscored their opponents 43-35.

That's pretty close to a night and day difference.

They have scored at a rate of 3.58 GF/G over those 12 games and let in 2.92 GA/G.

If they play at that rate over their last 49 games... they'll have a 175-143 GF-GA differential in those 49 games which is a +31 projected differential over that stretch.

They are -11 now and adding that +31 that would put them at +20 in goals differential.

It's VERY rare for a team to miss the playoffs with a +20 goals differential.

Now I know there's a big pile of assumptions in those stats up above... A) the Oilers have to continue at their current rate of outscoring their opponents over the last 49 games and B) they have to actually increase their pts% to close that ~8 point gap that they currently have between them and a wildcard spot.
Can it be done? I think it can, as long as they don't let up on believing the task isn't insurmountable.

Taking an optimistic point of view... the next 49 games are going to be like a playoff type environment where every game is critical and if they indeed do make it into the playoffs, I don't think there are many teams that will want to face them after clawing back into a playoff spot.

 

[nexttothemoon]

A few more stats...

The Oilers have gone 4-36 on the PP over that 12 game stretch... 11.1%
The PK over that stretch has had 10 PPG against in 35 Penalty kills... 71.4%

One thing to note though is that the Oilers have 4 SHG for and just 1 SHG against in those 12 games.

Point being... they have been underwhelming on the special teams and basically have dominated at 5 on 5.

If they continue playing well at evens (and can somehow climb up the charts with their special teams)... they have a real chance at making some noise down the stretch.

 

[Mr Positive]

Oh I've been loving Lucic this year, just making a dumb and dumber joke. He was brutal earlier though, this is more of who I was expecting and its awesome!

Lucic will always have that downside though. He is inconsistent. He seems to pick up play when the team needs it most though. Overall, for 6 million AAV, for a UFA mercenary, in these days of high cap, it's a good value contract for a top six veteran winger imo

 

[FlameChampion]

I agree with ya. They just don’t do the basics like SCREENING THE GOALIE. Puljujarvi would be great in front of the net. Maclellal has a love thing with Letestu. Time to change it up

Agreed on that. Was really noticeable in the Nashville game. They were in front of the net, but they rarely ever took the goalies eyes away. Little more effort trying to make sure the Goalie cant see the puck, would of helped a lot.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Oilers were 7-12-2 in their first 21 games. They were outscored 53-72 over that stretch. 2.52 GF/G and 3.43 GA/G

Now 7-5 in their last 12... and have outscored their opponents 43-35.

That's pretty close to a night and day difference.

They have scored at a rate of 3.58 GF/G over those 12 games and let in 2.92 GA/G.

If they play at that rate over their last 49 games... they'll have a 175-143 GF-GA differential in those 49 games which is a +31 projected differential over that stretch.

They are -11 now and adding that +31 that would put them at +20 in goals differential.

It's VERY rare for a team to miss the playoffs with a +20 goals differential.

Now I know there's a big pile of assumptions in those stats up above... A) the Oilers have to continue at their current rate of outscoring their opponents over the last 49 games and B) they have to actually increase their pts% to close that ~8 point gap that they currently have between them and a wildcard spot.
Can it be done? I think it can, as long as they don't let up on believing the task isn't insurmountable.

Taking an optimistic point of view... the next 49 games are going to be like a playoff type environment where every game is critical and if they indeed do make it into the playoffs, I don't think there are many teams that will want to face them after clawing back into a playoff spot.

More simply the Oilers could go 7-5 in the remaining 12 game sets (4 of them) and come out with 86pts after 81gp. So even that not enough.

But also of note saying the Oilers are 7-5 in last 12 games is of course engaging in select sample size to give the appearance of a vastly improved record. Except different samples within that indicated different things. For instance the Oilers lost the 3 preceding games to the 12 game stretch. So that the Oilers are actually 7-8 in the last 15 GP, and with one of those Wins being an OTW. Even if one looks at last 6 games the Oilers are simply .500. So different pictures emerge depending on game sample.

Now finally, its occurring to me that lately any game the Oilers win its in a match where the opponent plays poorly. For instance Montreal, Columbus, Minnesota. 2 of our goals last night were primarily created through silly mistakes of the opponent. Both coming on ill advised decisions in the offensive end, by types of teams that don't engage in that when they win. The point being we didn't create those goals as much as be the beneficiaries of them. Of course the Oilers are dangerous on 2-1's. But the better opponent performances in the league don't grant us odd man rushes or breakaways. Teams that allow that to the Oilers lose. But is that us controlling our destiny or some teams playing us well, some not.

 

[5 14 6 1]

More simply the Oilers could go 7-5 in the remaining 12 game sets (4 of them) and come out with 86pts after 81gp. So even that not enough.

But also of note saying the Oilers are 7-5 in last 12 games is of course engaging in select sample size to give the appearance of a vastly improved record. Except different samples within that indicated different things. For instance the Oilers lost the 3 preceding games to the 12 game stretch. So that the Oilers are actually 7-8 in the last 15 GP, and with one of those Wins being an OTW. Even if one looks at last 6 games the Oilers are simply .500. So different pictures emerge depending on game sample.

Now finally, its occurring to me that lately any game the Oilers win its in a match where the opponent plays poorly. For instance Montreal, Columbus, Minnesota. 2 of our goals last night were primarily created through silly mistakes of the opponent. Both coming on ill advised decisions in the offensive end, by types of teams that don't engage in that when they win. The point being we didn't create those goals as much as be the beneficiaries of them. Of course the Oilers are dangerous on 2-1's. But the better opponent performances in the league don't grant us odd man rushes or breakaways. Teams that allow that to the Oilers lose. But is that us controlling our destiny or some teams playing us well, some not.

So the wins don't count because the opposing team made mistakes and we didn't? If that's the case I think that means we were the better team and should win the game? It's rare to see a perfect hockey game form any team. Good teams jump on other teams mistakes. Do other teams wins not count when we make a bone headed play to give away a game, or let in a bad angle goal?

 

[McBeastMode]

https://twitter.com/Bob_Stauffer/status/942455033714556928
"logic dictates a change in personnel could occur there"
Is he referring to the players or the coaches..

 

[Drivesaitl]

Agreed on that. Was really noticeable in the Nashville game. They were in front of the net, but they rarely ever took the goalies eyes away. Little more effort trying to make sure the Goalie cant see the puck, would of helped a lot.

Pulju scores the goal because he has enough sense to stay for the rebound. So many players, for inexplicable reasons, namely not wanting to get two hand hammered with a stick in the back, will take that first shot then skate away.

I'll add that the Oilers would score more goals if more players on this team shot for rebounds like Draisaitl and had enough awareness to go to those spots like McD, Lucic, Maroon, Nuge, even Letestu do. Everybody else on this club appears to need a lesson in looking for the rebound around the net.

Particularly last night Stalock was giving up rebounds from shots to the pads. There were 5 shot passes yesterday where the players appeared to be shooting for the rebound. Pulju inadvertently made one to himself.

In this one event it doesn't matter as we won, but we still have difficulty creating goals in many of the games so that the players should be more aware when to go to the net.

 

[Drivesaitl]

So the wins don't count because the opposing team made mistakes and we didn't? If that's the case I think that means we were the better team and should win the game? It's rare to see a perfect hockey game form any team. Good teams jump on other teams mistakes. Do other teams wins not count when we make a bone headed play to give away a game, or let in a bad angle goal?

I intentionally word my posts clearly. In fairness to that where did I say the W's "'don't count". I think its clear what I am saying is that the Oilers do not necessarily control their own destiny and that their fortunes are as much connected with the manner in which opponents play us. For instance teams that routinely have numbers back, and don't give us odd man rushes generally beat us. Simple as that. If wild play a tighter game we score one goal last night, not 3.

Bad teams make series of boneheaded plays, good teams eliminate, or curtail them. I do think the Oilers are making strides in that area. But in certain games. Against Nashville the Oilers played a stupid game.

 

[5 14 6 1]

"logic dictates a change in personnel could occur there"
Is he referring to the players or the coaches..

The classic Stauffer foreshadow. I'd expect to see Puljujarvi on the PP soon.

 

[SnooPac]

I'm probably wrong, but I thought he should have got a assist on that one too. That's what I figured when I watched the game. Wish we could see the whole play.

Ya that's what we're saying. He should have had 2 assists in the game, one on Lucic's goal (which he got) and one on :]'s goal for winning the faceoff.
In the post just below yours, the video of Puljujärvi's goal shows the whole play (not the initial video, but the replay starting ~25s in).
Here it is again from Oilers' twitter:

 

[nexttothemoon]

More simply the Oilers could go 7-5 in the remaining 12 game sets (4 of them) and come out with 86pts after 81gp. So even that not enough.

But also of note saying the Oilers are 7-5 in last 12 games is of course engaging in select sample size to give the appearance of a vastly improved record. Except different samples within that indicated different things. For instance the Oilers lost the 3 preceding games to the 12 game stretch. So that the Oilers are actually 7-8 in the last 15 GP, and with one of those Wins being an OTW. Even if one looks at last 6 games the Oilers are simply .500. So different pictures emerge depending on game sample.

Now finally, its occurring to me that lately any game the Oilers win its in a match where the opponent plays poorly. For instance Montreal, Columbus, Minnesota. 2 of our goals last night were primarily created through silly mistakes of the opponent. Both coming on ill advised decisions in the offensive end, by types of teams that don't engage in that when they win. The point being we didn't create those goals as much as be the beneficiaries of them. Of course the Oilers are dangerous on 2-1's. But the better opponent performances in the league don't grant us odd man rushes or breakaways. Teams that allow that to the Oilers lose. But is that us controlling our destiny or some teams playing us well, some not.

To your first point... sure that's fair.

I am obviously using those sample sizes to try and delineate where I feel the Oilers have turned the corner. The 1st 21 games they played terribly. The last 12 it's been much better. They obviously had a few games in those 1st 21 where they looked solid and a few in the last 12 where they looked poor... but overall I think the trend has been that they are playing better, more determined hockey recently and a 12 game sample is a reasonable size to start assuming that change might be long lasting.

To your second point, I think I would say that the Oilers are becoming better at taking advantage of other teams errors. They have been a top team in the NHL all season in scoring chances/shots differential etc and the difference recently is that they are cashing their chances and putting the puck in the net at a higher rate. 3.58 goals per game over their last 12 indicates to me they are getting better at getting to areas where they need to be to put the puck in the net. Their scoring has increased by more than a goal a game since their opening 21 game stretch.. which is significant.

Goals against has dropped by half a goal per game over that 12 game stretch as compared to the 1st 21 games... again a significant differential. Not as many glaring defensive errors per game although everyone can easily remember several atrocious plays which cost the Oilers goals against and games. The team is obviously far from perfect... but they are improving.

All this with very subpar special teams and arguably very inconsistent goaltending.

If they tighten up the special teams and get better goaltending (and stay healthy)... I would say they have a very strong chance at improving even more in the 2nd half.

Again... lots of ifs in there but I think there's a case to be made that subliminally this team thought it was going to be relatively easy this season and they'd just carry on from being a 103 pt team last season Turns out teams take the Oilers seriously and it's not a cakewalk vs any opponent. This is a good hard lesson for the team and I think there's a good chance they are better for it. There's a good chance this team becomes a better scrappy, battling team because they have to fight back from such a deep hole and won't take any games for granted because they simply can't at this stage.

 

[Aceboogie]

Go whine somewhere else.

Is this what HFOil is devolving into? A legit discussion about a goal against is perceived as whining? You are helping make this place alot more like Calgary Puck.

No criticism allowed right.