Prospect Info: OHL prospect review

[tarheelhockey]

From the "OHL Prospects" blog, which is doing a 30-teams-in-30-days rundown. Here is their Carolina edition.


http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2013/07/30-teams-in-30-days-carolina-hurricanes.html

Ryan Murphy - Kitchener Rangers
This was the first season since his rookie year that he didn't average at least a point per game. In fact, his offensive numbers have declined every year since his draft season. That's precisely why no prospect in the OHL is more widely discussed (often in a negative manner). Opinions are definitely split on Murphy. Where does my opinion lie? Probably somewhere in the middle. On the negative side, I don't think Murphy took many steps forward over the course of his OHL career. His defensive game is still prone to lapses. He still can be prone to trying to force plays offensively and making bad pinches. And he can still get outmuscled in the corners and in front of the net. On the positive side, he's still a dynamic offensive defenseman whose skating ability and shot make him a valuable weapon. And even if his defensive game isn't great, I don't think it's quite as bad as some make it out to be. Bottom line is this. Murphy didn't have a good year. I thought he looked disinterested and "over the OHL" at times. But that doesn't mean he can't develop into a useful NHL player. The evidence is how quickly he was able to make an impact at the AHL level following the completion of the OHL season. It remains to be seen whether he's in the NHL or the AHL next year, but I do think that eventually he'll make an impact in the NHL. If his minutes are sheltered as an offensive specialist, he could probably have a nice little season in the NHL (~25 points). In the AHL, I'd expect him his offensive numbers to be quite strong, in excess of the 30-35 point mark.


Austin Levi - Plymouth Whalers
Even though his offensive numbers took a big hit, I think it was a smart choice for Carolina to send Levi back for his overage year. His offensive contribution took a hit because he was clearly more focused on playing a safe, defensive first game. When he wanted to, he could hit a forward with a breakout pass, and he's not one to fumble the puck in his own end. But his days of trying to lead the rush and jump up offensively were behind him. He excelled defensively this year in that shutdown role and made himself into a very difficult defenseman to match up against. Moving forward, it'll be about adding even more muscle to his frame so that he can push forwards around in front of the net, and win battles in the corners at the pro level. He has the make-up of a solid 5-6 defenseman at the next level, but he might take a few years to adapt to the speed of the pro game.


Brock McGinn - Guelph Storm
McGinn had a fantastic year in Guelph, playing in all 68 games this year (refreshing considering his injury problems in his draft year). He's a high energy guy who also has the offensive skill set to contribute on the score sheet. He crashes the net hard and is the perfect guy to put on a top line with more skilled players, so that he can create more room for them and get possession along the wall. He's also a terrific forechecker and someone who makes his presence felt physically. Next year Guelph will be returning most of their key forwards (minus Tanner Richard and Cody McNaughton), so they should have a solid offensive team. McGinn will be right in there again. I'm hoping he can take his offensive game to the next level and be more assertive with the puck. Would like to see him take more chances and look to make things happen himself, rather than playing the strict puck retrieval, crash the net game. Diversify his offensive skill set. Given the type of production he had this year, I'd be very surprised if he's not a 30 goal scorer next year.

<snip>


Brent Pedersen - Kitchener Rangers
I liked this selection for the Hurricanes. Pedersen is a big bodied winger with power forward potential. He was pretty inconsistent this year, but he also saw fluctuating ice time and little special times action. Next year, the Rangers will be losing much of their talent on the wing, which translates to an increased role for Pedersen should he want it. I think he's talented enough offensively to be a winger on one of the Rangers top lines next season and should see a nice increase in his offensive numbers. I think he's a pretty likely candidate for at least a 25-25 season.

The link also contains reviews of Altshuller, Carrick and Ganly.

Click to read more...

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Solid read. Thanks for sharing. I think Pederson could turn out to be a solid pickup.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Solid read. Thanks for sharing. I think Pederson could turn out to be a solid pickup.

I really like the Pederson pick. As a 5th rounder, it's not a huge miss if he doesn't turn out. But he's the type of player that can find a niche and become a useful NHL'er despite a modest level of skill.

 

[rocky7]

yes i'm glad you posted that. i had thought that murphy was really on the cusp of jumping into the nhl and that he was more prepared than that blog seems to indicate. if in fact that's true and if he has much value at all, perhaps he would be a nice throw in in some trade negotiations. from what i've read here it seems that some would like to hang onto him while others feel he'll never develop enough.

 

[Zombie Mike Murphy]

I wouldn't sour on Murphy yet. I mean, in his 5 game callup last year he was at worst no worse than McBain.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Prospect hasn't cracked NHL two years after being drafted, time to trade him.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Prospect hasn't cracked NHL two years after being drafted, time to trade him.

Nobody is saying that's the case.

There are times, however, when it is wise to cut your losses and get something in return for a prospect before their value diminishes completely. It happens quite often that a team gives up on a prospect and uses them as a piece in a trade and they go on to bust.

 

[tomdundo]

Nobody is saying that's the case.

There are times, however, when it is wise to cut your losses and get something in return for a prospect before their value diminishes completely. It happens quite often that a team gives up on a prospect and uses them as a piece in a trade and they go on to bust.

But then again, it doesn't always work out. Cutting our losses almost immediately with Paradis was an excellent choice, but Toronto giving up on Tlusty was not.

Now, how soon until they give up on Rielly?

 

[NotOpie]

Sounds like to me young Ryan just needs some additional development. I'd like him to see time in the AHL with maybe a little tutoring from time to time from Wes. I'm not sure it does him any favors to rush him into the NHL. If Pitkanen comes back we have 2 good puck movers (Pits and Faulk) and rumor has it that Sekera is pretty fair (just not as a PP QB). Our issue probably comes on the PP where we'll likely have to have a forward at the point on the 2nd group. I've never found that to be consistently ideal or bad. Still with all of the rumors flying, who knows what shakes out.

This really could mean that Bellemore sees significant time as a #7 blue liner for us.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I agree with the slow approach for Murphy. He's not so good at this point that we desperately need him in the NHL, so let him go to Charlotte and develop some defensive instinct before he makes the jump. There's no sense in pushing him hard to come up here, just to be the 6th/7th guy and struggle.

 

[Zombie Mike Murphy]

Not so sure I want Murphy in the graveyard. Exactly how many players have come out of there and done anything? Admittedly we're a bit overstuffed for D at the moment, but I'd love to see him make a push, to at least take the #7 spot away from Bellemore or whoever.

 

[vwg*]

Nobody is saying that's the case.

There are times, however, when it is wise to cut your losses and get something in return for a prospect before their value diminishes completely. It happens quite often that a team gives up on a prospect and uses them as a piece in a trade and they go on to bust.

Quite often? I don't think so, but maybe if you actually quantify how often "quite often" is, I might agree.

You could make this type of argument for almost any prospect that doesn't come to the NHL right away or isn't a great young player before his entry level contract ends.

In fact, you could have made this exact argument at the time we traded Andrew Ladd. Look how that turned out. Ruutu is a decent player but everyone would take Ladd over Ruutu now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not so sure I want Murphy in the graveyard. Exactly how many players have come out of there and done anything?

In recent years of Albany/Charlotte..the ones I can think of are:

Dwyer, Sutter, McBain (although he's regressed afterwards), Nash (this year), Tlusty (25 games over 2 years), Harrison, and Bowman (I won't count guys like Peters, Brett Carson or Sanguinetti as they haven't really contributed anything).

In fairness though, the only first round picks of the Canes that was even sent to spend any time there were Boychuk and Sutter. All the other 1st round picks were either traded or made the team. That's not to say 2nd, 3rd and later round picks can't be developed, but the chances of them making it are much less.