Rumor: Offseason Rumors Thread #1 | Trade Milan, Milan So Far Away?

[McYoungGuns]

While we need a point getting dman, what may interest u guys is that out of our 229 goals 32 were from Dmen, and then compare to the top goal scoring team (Tampa) out of their 290 48 were from Dmen. So 13.97% for us and 16.55% for them.

a difference of 16, just adding back a healthy Sek and Klef (using their goal totals from the year before) is adding 15 more goals. So while we need more offence from the back, we aren't desperate enough to trade big for Faulk

 

[SK13]

Tambo was to patient and didn’t surround the young core with the proper veterans. Chia is to aggressive and is giving away our assets to try the fast fix. We need to identify who the core is and then surround them with the right players. IMO last season failures fall on Talbot and the special teams.

The Oilers problems 5v4 are largely because of the lack of a point option. Klefbom taking passes over his shoulder from left handed passers means no one-timer. Connor McDavid not shooting means a clogged up cross seam. Few shots getting through means no cleaning up for Milan Lucic.

Talbot is not responsible for the Oilers being the 3rd worst team in the league in scoring chances against and the 4th worst team in high danger scoring chances against. They weren't that much better in 16-17: 5th worst in both. Talbot stood on his head in 16-17 and was mediocre in 17-18. The difference was him, but the fact remains that the Oilers D was below par in both years.

It's been a massive glaring issue for some time. It's killing them at both ends.

 

[belair]

While we need a point getting dman, what may interest u guys is that out of our 229 goals 32 were from Dmen, and then compare to the top goal scoring team (Tampa) out of their 290 48 were from Dmen. So 13.97% for us and 16.55% for them.

a difference of 16, just adding back a healthy Sek and Klef (using their goal totals from the year before) is adding 15 more goals. So while we need more offence from the back, we aren't desperate enough to trade big for Faulk

Not to mention a PP that scored 20 more goals than our PK did on the year. I wouldn't mind a solid second pair defenseman on the right side, but I'm not willing to pay through the nose to get one if it doesn't make sense for us in the long term.

 

[belair]

The Oilers problems 5v4 are largely because of the lack of a point option. Klefbom taking passes over his shoulder from left handed passers means no one-timer. Connor McDavid not shooting means a clogged up cross seam. Few shots getting through means no cleaning up for Milan Lucic.

Talbot is not responsible for the Oilers being the 3rd worst team in the league in scoring chances against and the 4th worst team in high danger scoring chances against. They weren't that much better in 16-17: 5th worst in both. Talbot stood on his head in 16-17 and was mediocre in 17-18. The difference was him, but the fact remains that the Oilers D was below par in both years.

It's been a massive glaring issue for some time. It's killing them at both ends.

The PP struggled last season because it was the same bloody one we used last season. And I said the same thing then. It was too freaking predictable. Key in on 97 (who barely moves) and block the one time option--powerplay over. It also didn't help that for 80% of the season they were determined to pass it into the net. Sorry to say but I'm pretty confident our unit would have benefited this season with Connor on the bench during the man advantage. I'm not saying a RD wouldn't have helped, but the lack of one was not the reason why it struggled as badly as it did.

 

[SK13]

The PP struggled last season because it was the same bloody one we used last season. And I said the same thing then. It was too freaking predictable. Key in on 97 (who barely moves) and block the one time option--powerplay over. It also didn't help that for 80% of the season they were determined to pass it into the net. Sorry to say but I'm pretty confident our unit would have benefited this season with Connor on the bench during the man advantage. I'm not saying a RD wouldn't have helped, but the lack of one was not the reason why it struggled as badly as it did.

It's the same difference.

Connor doesn't shoot and the Oilers are no threat to score from the point. So they clog up his cross seam pass and they have nothing but a game of catch going. If there's a threat from the point they need to respect, they can't all sit in the slot and knock passes down.

There's no good PP that can be completely shut down by another team. If someone tries to pinch up on Alexander Ovechkin, Backstrom and co. will burn you on the short side. A RH shot PP defenseman would be utterly transformative for the Oilers because it will force the PK to spread out.

 

[Spawn]

It's the same difference.

Connor doesn't shoot and the Oilers are no threat to score from the point. So they clog up his cross seam pass and they have nothing but a game of catch going. If there's a threat from the point they need to respect, they can't all sit in the slot and knock passes down.

There's no good PP that can be completely shut down by another team. If someone tries to pinch up on Alexander Ovechkin, Backstrom and co. will burn you on the short side. A RH shot PP defenseman would be utterly transformative for the Oilers because it will force the PK to spread out.

Or, as I've suggested a few times now, move McDavid to the other side. He's no longer an option for the one timer, but he doesn't shoot anyway on the PP. So it doesn't really matter. And it subsequently opens up Klefbom, Drai and Nuge as one-time options.

The Jets do the same thing with their PP (just on opposite sides). Wheeler, a right shot, sets up on the right boards as the QB but he can hit Scheifele, Buff and Laine for one time options (all right shots). The only left shot guy on their PP was Stastny and he was their down low/net front option.

Hall QB'd the Devils PP this year in the same manner.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

while what you're saying isn't wrong, a lot of teams do that, build around one strong player per line and spread it out

Nuge Mcd
Pulj Drai
Lucic Strome

and then fill in the blanks

I agree. I think we can count on Yamamoto to fill in one of those spots well, and then I would want to trade for a guy like Domi, Duclair, Spooner, Namestnikov, or another cheap top 6 winger to fill it. Ideally, though, we would be able to trade futures (not including the 10th overall) for a guy like Galchenyuk.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Faulk is basically Klefbom level bad defensively (which is BAD).... plus he's even worse offensively than Klefbom 5 on 5.

I think adding Faulk makes the Oilers D worse... not better.

Skimming through your post history you wanted to trade Nuge for Boone Jenner and said that would be a "big win" for us.

Also said Strome was Eberle's equal offensively.


Got a feeling you'll be wrong about Klefbom in a years time as well.

 

[Fourier]

Faulk is flawed but he's not going to be given away, it's going to cost something fairly substantial to acquire him. If he's considered a tweak then what are Dmen like Nurse and Klefbom considered? They are all similar level Dmen albeit different types of players. IMO, there's zero chance you get Faulk for the likes of Benning, Cagguila, 2nd rounder etc. The ask will likely be 10th, Puljujarvi or RNH.

Severson isn't a tweak either, can't imagine that the Devils are just going to give him away.
Adding some competition for the bottom pairing are tweaks (Persson etc,).

The Oilers moved Eberle for Strome because of cap issues. Money is the main reason that they would move Faulk. Carolina wants to shed money. His cap hit is $4.8 but his salary is $6M. That's the number that counts for them and for a fair number of teams that have the cap space to take him.

He has not broken 40 points in three years and has about the same ES offensive production as Adam Larsson over that period. He has one more ES point than Ian Cole over the last three years. Given his defensive issues you could be easily looking at a guy who plays on your third pairing at ES. He has been great on the pp but that means you are getting him primarily for 8 minutes a game. On the vast majority of teams you might be lucky to add 5 -10 goals per year on the pp by adding Faulk. If he costs you even 3-5 more at ES the net gain is pretty minimal. How many teams would give up prime assets for him. Maybe someone does but I doubt there will be a bidding war.

I would offer Benning and a 2nd. Benning may be almost as good at ES and he will cost almost $5M less in real dollars. If that's not enough so be it.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

The Oilers moved Eberle for Strome because of cap issues. Money is the main reason that they would move Faulk. Carolina wants to shed money. His cap hit is $4.8 but his salary is $6M. That's the number that counts for them and for a fair number of teams that have the cap space to take him.

He has not broken 40 points in three years and has about the same ES offensive production as Adam Larsson over that period. He has one more ES point than Ian Cole over the last three years. Given his defensive issues you could be easily looking at a guy who plays on your third pairing at ES. He has been great on the pp but that means you are getting him primarily for 8 minutes a game. On the vast majority of teams you might be lucky to add 5 -10 goals per year on the pp by adding Faulk. If he costs you even 3-5 more at ES the net gain is pretty minimal. How many teams would give up prime assets for him. Maybe someone does but I doubt there will be a bidding war.

I would offer Benning and a 2nd. Benning may be almost as good at ES and he will cost almost $5M less in real dollars. If that's not enough so be it.

I haven't heard much about this new owner's philosophy on spending. Is he looking to shed money? I know that he's not willing to pay much for management, but can we assume for players? Feels weird that the league would approve a sale to another Eugene Melnyk

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Chiarelli's trade comments.

First, it sounds like he won't be making any big moves (his weak spot). Second, his wording on finding depth players "I wouldn't call them major moves, but I wouldn't call them minor either". It sounds like he knows we need more scoring from that bottom 6 to take pressure off of Connor and Leon to do it all every night.

Here's hoping!

 

[nexttothemoon]

Skimming through your post history you wanted to trade Nuge for Boone Jenner and said that would be a "big win" for us.

Also said Strome was Eberle's equal offensively.


Got a feeling you'll be wrong about Klefbom in a years time as well.

Well my RNH for Jenner trade suggestion was a year ago as well.

RNH did much better this past season which equalizes those players moreso now.

Looking at the past 3 seasons:

Relative to teammates:
RNH + .04 GF/60 + .06 GA/60 with +.89 Rel Zone starts... basically treads water at best (actually a slight net negative considering his zone starts)
Jenner +.05 GF/60 +.04 GA/60 with -9.03 Rel Zone starts... a net positive considering his zone starts.

So nope... I still feel Jenner would be a solid net addition over RNH. Maybe with another solid year from RNH we might finally see him take the lead but as of now it's closer but I still would give the slight nod to Jenner.

As for Strome vs Eberle... Eberle is a soft, invisible playoff player that wasn't the reason the Oilers made the playoffs (but yes he helped) and he certainly wasn't the reason the Isles made the playoffs either (as they missed).


Strome has been somewhat disappointing to me as I expected 40-45 pts from him and if he had delivered that at half the cost of Eberle I would have been happy with that.

No doubt Eberle is better than Strome overall offensively... although I would also say he's worse than Strome defensively given his somewhat softer zone start usage as well.

Fact is that Eberle had a good year and Strome had a mediocre one.

Eberle was the #5 scoring forward on his team last season... scored on 22.3% of his team's goals.
Strome was the #4 scoring forward on his team last season... scored on 14.5 % of his team's goals.

Yep... Eberle was clearly better offensively last season... and both players are complimentary talents that likely don't move the needle strongly towards playoffs for either team even if the trade didn't take place.

Reversing the trade... I think Strome would likely have hit close to 40 pts playing with the Islanders and Eberle would likely have been closer to 50 pts again playing with the Oilers. I don't think that's worth $3 million difference in salaries... especially since we've seen the Casper impression from Eberle when the games mattered the most.


As for Klefbom... I stand by the fact he's bad defensively. My eyes saw that this past season as well to back that up. Stats say so as well when you look at relative GA over the past 3 seasons. He needs to find his offense again to not make himself a net negative out there on the ice which he certainly was this past season.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Just say no to Faulk.

Looking at his total effect on the ice over the last 3 seasons in all situations:

Relative to teammates:

+.13 GF/60 and +.57 GA/60 +7.18 Relative zone starts


So he's been getting a solid positive zone start push and plenty of power play time in Carolina... yet his net effect on the ice is +.44 GA/60 in all situations.

Why is this player a sensible addition to the Oilers?

Could they shelter him even more than that here? We are talking about a player that would need to basically ONLY play on the PP and no other significant minutes in order to not be a net negative.

Edit to add... Faulk actually has been decent on the PK over the past 3 seasons... so if he was used on the PP and PK and kept to almost ZERO ES minutes I could see a decent case being made for his addition.. but since 80% of the game is played at evens... that's not really a realistic scenario.

 

[Little Fury]

The Oilers defense was mediocre at best in 16-17. It needed to be addressed last summer and wasn't. There is nothing to be gained on the back-end with patience (nothing of consequence is in the system on the way up), and the PP definitely needs point support.

They must address this externally. Patience is NOT a virtue when it comes to filling that hole. It's Tambo-esque dithering.

So lose another trade because that's worked so well for us so far?

There's room in the salary structure for an addition today. It's not as dire as you're making it to be.

Unless the cap hits $82M it is pretty dire.

For the record, as big of a fan of Klefbom as I am, I WOULD move him to adequately fix that hole. I'd buyout Andrej Sekera, I'd try to give Kris Russell back to Calgary, I'd listen on Larsson or Nurse depending on the player coming back. I'd trade Ryan Strome's rights and sign someone for a third of what I was paying him. I'd trade Kassian for futures.

There are a million ways to create cap-space and I don't like them all, but if I needed to do them to ensure that hole is filled for 18-19 - I'd do them.

Getting tunnel vision on a specific need is a great way to get screwed. The hole you so desperately want to fill is the same hole almost 30 other teams have. It'll cost a bundle and the chances of the addition being enough to fill the hole and make up for the loss of whatever heads out the door is slim.

 

[Little Fury]

The Oilers problems 5v4 are largely because of the lack of a point option. Klefbom taking passes over his shoulder from left handed passers means no one-timer. Connor McDavid not shooting means a clogged up cross seam. Few shots getting through means no cleaning up for Milan Lucic.

They had a top 5 pp in 16-17 generating shots from the slot with Leon as the bumper. They moved him off that and the in close-in chances dried up and teams let them hammer shots from the point and circles. Adding a point shot won't solve that. The PP issues are largely systemic.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I wonder how much Green's surgery could effect his value in July. Would a two year deal @ 4.5/5mil get him?

Or do you steer clear of another defenceman needing summer rehab?

Nurse-Larsson
Sekera-Klefbom
Russell-Green

That does look good... Though a little glass-like....

 

[belair]

Just say no to Faulk.

Looking at his total effect on the ice over the last 3 seasons in all situations:

Relative to teammates:

+.13 GF/60 and +.57 GA/60 +7.18 Relative zone starts


So he's been getting a solid positive zone start push and plenty of power play time in Carolina... yet his net effect on the ice is +.44 GA/60 in all situations.

Why is this player a sensible addition to the Oilers?

Could they shelter him even more than that here? We are talking about a player that would need to basically ONLY play on the PP and no other significant minutes in order to not be a net negative.

Edit to add... Faulk actually has been decent on the PK over the past 3 seasons... so if he was used on the PP and PK and kept to almost ZERO ES minutes I could see a decent case being made for his addition.. but since 80% of the game is played at evens... that's not really a realistic scenario.

I don't understand why you'd pin the lack of goal production on him specifically. You're looking at a team that has had documented problems in regards to scoring depth. Is it Justin Faulk's fault that the Hurricanes can't sustain offensive zone possession while he is on the ice? The problems I've seen from watching him are in regards to his defensive reads, which are in line with a player who leans more towards the offensive end of the ice. I agree that Faulk isn't worth the value that's been mentioned before, but there's no way this is a player that needs to be prevented from 5-on-5 play. That is just nonsense.

 

[syz]

While we need a point getting dman, what may interest u guys is that out of our 229 goals 32 were from Dmen, and then compare to the top goal scoring team (Tampa) out of their 290 48 were from Dmen. So 13.97% for us and 16.55% for them.

a difference of 16, just adding back a healthy Sek and Klef (using their goal totals from the year before) is adding 15 more goals. So while we need more offence from the back, we aren't desperate enough to trade big for Faulk

That's all well and good, but the amount that the Oilers forwards are hamstrung by the D not being able to transition well enough is pretty blatant throughout every game they play. Some good puck moving defensemen would add more than 16 goals.

 

[SK13]

So lose another trade because that's worked so well for us so far?

"Losing" a trade implies we don't get the better player in the deal. The Oilers trading talent for supporting players has been the problem.

Unless the cap hits $82M it is pretty dire.

No, not really. There's about $5M in floatable cap space after RFAs and anything that would happen here would be via trade, so you aren't fitting in a UFA salary here.

Getting tunnel vision on a specific need is a great way to get screwed. The hole you so desperately want to fill is the same hole almost 30 other teams have. It'll cost a bundle and the chances of the addition being enough to fill the hole and make up for the loss of whatever heads out the door is slim.

The hole they NEED to fill and have needed to fill since Justin Schultz was traded (as subpar as he was in that role when he was here) has more potentially available market options now than it has in years and may have in years to come.

The Oilers do not have great NHL players for trade assets. I like Oscar Klefbom and Jesse Puljujarvi, but there are better players than them available. There is reason to think that you can upgrade on the teams talent level with a John Carlson level addition this summer, and there may not be options available in a year or two (I'm not pushing Klefbom+Pulju for Carlson, so don't @ me on that).

They had a top 5 pp in 16-17 generating shots from the slot with Leon as the bumper. They moved him off that and the in close-in chances dried up and teams let them hammer shots from the point and circles. Adding a point shot won't solve that. The PP issues are largely systemic.

The top-5 PP was unchanged into the year. IIRC alterations didn't occur until WAY too long after it didn't work.

Mark Letestu and Milan Lucic were the two biggest goal scorers for the Edmonton Oilers in 16-17 on the PP. Neither were a threat at any point because one-time passes weren't getting across to Letestu and shots weren't getting through for Lucic.

 

[McShogun99]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Chiarelli's trade comments.

First, it sounds like he won't be making any big moves (his weak spot). Second, his wording on finding depth players "I wouldn't call them major moves, but I wouldn't call them minor either". It sounds like he knows we need more scoring from that bottom 6 to take pressure off of Connor and Leon to do it all every night.

Here's hoping!

One thing I'll give PC credit for is that he has a good track record when it comes to the minor trades.

 

[CycloneSweep]

"Losing" a trade implies we don't get the better player in the deal. The Oilers trading talent for supporting players has been the problem.



No, not really. There's about $5M in floatable cap space after RFAs and anything that would happen here would be via trade, so you aren't fitting in a UFA salary here.



The hole they NEED to fill and have needed to fill since Justin Schultz was traded (as subpar as he was in that role when he was here) has more potentially available market options now than it has in years and may have in years to come.

The Oilers do not have great NHL players for trade assets. I like Oscar Klefbom and Jesse Puljujarvi, but there are better players than them available. There is reason to think that you can upgrade on the teams talent level with a John Carlson level addition this summer, and there may not be options available in a year or two (I'm not pushing Klefbom+Pulju for Carlson, so don't @ me on that).



The top-5 PP was unchanged into the year. IIRC alterations didn't occur until WAY too long after it didn't work.

Mark Letestu and Milan Lucic were the two biggest goal scorers for the Edmonton Oilers in 16-17 on the PP. Neither were a threat at any point because one-time passes weren't getting across to Letestu and shots weren't getting through for Lucic.

The PP was bad because the league figured it out and Woodcroft couldn't figure out an alternative system or any tweaks that actually worked

 

[nexttothemoon]

I don't understand why you'd pin the lack of goal production on him specifically. You're looking at a team that has had documented problems in regards to scoring depth. Is it Justin Faulk's fault that the Hurricanes can't sustain offensive zone possession while he is on the ice? The problems I've seen from watching him are in regards to his defensive reads, which are in line with a player who leans more towards the offensive end of the ice. I agree that Faulk isn't worth the value that's been mentioned before, but there's no way this is a player that needs to be prevented from 5-on-5 play. That is just nonsense.

If you've watched him play... you should see that he has defensive deficiencies... which means that the net effect when he's on the ice is that the team gets more goal against than goals for. Is he entirely to blame for that? Of course not, but relative to his teammates he is a worse net negative than average on his team which is where relative stats come in and are useful. Still can't 100% separate a player from his team obviously because this is a team game but +.43 GA/60 relative to teammates at ES is a pretty strong indicator that he's a negative factor defensively which his offensive contributions at ES can't overcome.

He's a lot like Klefbom in that regard who is also +.40 GA/60 relative to teammates at ES but his +.29 relative GF/60 makes up for that somewhat as well.

 

[SK13]

The PP was bad because the league figured it out and Woodcroft couldn't figure out an alternative system or any tweaks that actually worked

They figured it out because the entire thing worked on one cross seam pass. Collapse on McDavid, don't let the slot get open and they have to play catch or force something. Give him a one time option on the point and that lane will be open again.

Again I say: you can't "figure out" a good PP. People know what Washington is doing and has done for 13 years. The only actual defense is don't take penalties.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

They figured it out because the entire thing worked on one cross seam pass. Collapse on McDavid, don't let the slot get open and they have to play catch or force something. Give him a one time option on the point and that lane will be open again.

Again I say: you can't "figure out" a good PP. People know what Washington is doing and has done for 13 years. The only actual defense is don't take penalties.

Caps are more than just a shot from Ovechkin. They also adjust the ways in which they open him up and get the puck to him.

 

[Cloned]

Caps are more than just a shot from Ovechkin. They also adjust the ways in which they open him up and get the puck to him.

It's more that they have multiple options.

Cover Ovechkin? Oshie is open in the slot for a one-timer. Cover Ovechkin and Oshie? Backstrom or Kuznetsov can actually shoot off the wall. Play passive and try to block the shooting lanes? Carlson can walk in and pick a corner.