Rumor: Offseason Rumors Thread #1 | Trade Milan, Milan So Far Away?

[Mr Positive]

Kane was also an upcoming UFA. I'll be surprised is Karlsson gets Kane money and term.

for sure RFA vs UFA is a big deal, but that difference is cancelled out by the fact that Karlsson had a much larger impact than Kane did.

Also, it seems that he is not signed yet, probably because he wasn't willing to take small money, and Vegas probably challenged him to prove he is worth 1C money. I think he has passed that threshold.

The only thing I could think against him though, is that I doubt other teams would be so willing to gamble that he is truly a 1C, and would need another season to prove himself. So perhaps that drags down his number. As many issues as Kane had, his strong season this season at least makes sense and fits a pattern to some extent.

But also look at what March got. Before the playoffs started, he got 5 million long term. Karlsson is at least worth a million more AAV, probably even mid season. And now with these playoffs...

 

[Spawn]

Of course the Oilers do Kessel for JP straight up. That's an insanely bad deal for Pittsburgh.

Chia should do Nuge for Kessel straight up if it's offered. No way the Oilers should do Nuge and 10 OA for Kessel. Nuge is five years younger. Is Kessel really worth the extra .8M a year? Those two factors make a straight up deal reasonable. Maybe add a third or fourth rounder or B grade prospect going to Pittsburgh. But a top ten pick? Too much.

Kessel put up 92 points this year (8th in the league). Best year of his career. His value is likely very high. And the Oilers would need to pay the Chia tax. Just saying... I bet that would be the cost for us.

 

[Spawn]

his contract is nasty

His contract is enormous. Likely to a prohibitive degree for the Oilers. But he's worth the money. Makes a huge impact at both ends of the ice. One of the few truly impactful #1 d-men in the league imo.

 

[Jumptheshark]

His contract is enormous. Likely to a prohibitive degree for the Oilers. But he's worth the money. Makes a huge impact at both ends of the ice. One of the few truly impactful #1 d-men in the league imo.

both Nuge and Klefbom get moved out to make room for him due to $$$ reasons and nothing else

 

[shoop]

Very true, Vegas is voodoo, they could easily do that. Plus, after seeing how great Vegas is as a hockey town, maybe a young guy like him will be persuaded to stay there for less $

How much of Vegas being a hockey town is a combination of first year in the league, an incredible playoff run and being the only major league sport in town, for now?

Maybe Ovechkin goes beast mode and wills the Caps to their first Cup? The Raiders move to Vegas in 2020. Vegas could well have an MLS team by then. Would anyone be surprised if Vegas misses the playoffs next year?

I don't think that many players will take a discount. Vegas had a bunch of guys with chips on their shoulders and something to prove. I think a lot of them will cash out while they are ahead wherever that takes them.

 

[Skolman]

Very true, Vegas is voodoo, they could easily do that. Plus, after seeing how great Vegas is as a hockey town, maybe a young guy like him will be persuaded to stay there for less $

Every team looks like a great hockey town when their team is winning. Let's not pretend Vegas would be this electric if their team was terrible

 

[SK13]

Every team looks like a great hockey town when their team is winning. Let's not pretend Vegas would be this electric if their team was terrible

Well, no market, not even the best Canadian ones, are "as electric" when their team is terrible.

There are lots of markets like Nashville and Tampa Bay that are non-traditional markets that grew into sustainable hockey markets when times are down, and are excellent hockey markets when times are good. Between the big local population, little-to-no competition and this gangbusters first season, I think they've probably made lots of fans for life.

 

[Little Fury]

He was definitely not average the season before this one.He was as important as Murray was, if not more so, to the Pens getting their cup last season. The season before that, he was above average IMO, but that's at least debatable. I think he's actually going to keep a very high level of play up for a few more years, though maybe not to this insane level.

I'm skeptical that a guy who was pedestrian for a good chunk of his prime years is going to sustain a late career renaissance.

I agree that age is a concern and his price point even more so. But Talbot is turning 31 this year, so he's not exactly that much younger - I'd glad trade the two assuming we could keep Fleury at a reasonable rate.

Well, that's the kicker. Is Fleury at 33 and, say, $7M a year going to give you that much more than Talbot at $5M? I'm not sure.

Talbot hasn't proven **** at the NHL level minus one good season. If you get the chance to get Fleury you take it.

The odds of Fleury keeping this up long term are damn slim. And then you're stuck with him and a fat contract for years to come.

 

[Little Fury]

Of course the Oilers do Kessel for JP straight up. That's an insanely bad deal for Pittsburgh.

Chia should do Nuge for Kessel straight up if it's offered. No way the Oilers should do Nuge and 10 OA for Kessel. Nuge is five years younger. Is Kessel really worth the extra .8M a year? Those two factors make a straight up deal reasonable. Maybe add a third or fourth rounder or B grade prospect going to Pittsburgh. But a top ten pick? Too much.

Chia traded Kessel in his prime for peanuts; even he's not trading Nuge for the 30 year old edition.

 

[Frank the Tank]

Chia traded Kessel in his prime for peanuts; even he's not trading Nuge for the 30 year old edition.

Peanuts?

"On September 18, 2009, the Bruins traded Kessel to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2010 first-round pick (Tyler Seguin), a 2010 second-round pick (Jared Knight) and a 2011 first-round pick (Dougie Hamilton)."

 

[MoneyGuy]

Peanuts?

"On September 18, 2009, the Bruins traded Kessel to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2010 first-round pick (Tyler Seguin), a 2010 second-round pick (Jared Knight) and a 2011 first-round pick (Dougie Hamilton)."

That's not peanuts. That's filet mignon. A whole truck load of filet mignon. It's the opposite of peanuts.

 

[SK13]

That's not peanuts. That's filet mignon. A whole truck load of filet mignon. It's the opposite of peanuts.

It's hilariously more than the offersheet that was being threatened. You know, the one that induced the trade to Toronto in the first place? Classic Burkie.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Peanuts?

"On September 18, 2009, the Bruins traded Kessel to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2010 first-round pick (Tyler Seguin), a 2010 second-round pick (Jared Knight) and a 2011 first-round pick (Dougie Hamilton)."

I remember a few posters going bat shit crazy we took Pitlick over Knight

 

[guymez]

Peanuts?

"On September 18, 2009, the Bruins traded Kessel to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2010 first-round pick (Tyler Seguin), a 2010 second-round pick (Jared Knight) and a 2011 first-round pick (Dougie Hamilton)."

Its only peanuts if the narrative is that Chia sucks.

 

[shoop]

Its only peanuts if the narrative is that Chia sucks.

Isn't that always the narrative?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Its only peanuts if the narrative is that Chia sucks.

2 1sts and a 2nd was good value bit of an overpayment for Kessel. The fact that the leafs only got worse after the trade is what made it so ridiculous.

If you follow the history of that trade it's ridiculous for Boston. Let's analyse the individual pieces

Seguin Pick.
Reilly Smith(Become Jimmy Hayes), Joe Morrow, Loui Eriksson, Matt Fraser
So the Seguin ended up as Jimmy Hayes

Jared Knight Pick
Knight traded for Philips
Philips traded for Future Considerations

Dougie Hamilton Pic, traded and became
Senyshen, Lauzon and Forsbacka-Karlsson

Its absolutely stunning the ups and downs of that.

 

[soothsayer]

We may be surprised by how low guys will be signing in Vegas. 5M in Vegas is not 5M in California.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

We may be surprised by how low guys will be signing in Vegas. 5M in Vegas is not 5M in California.

Some states like Florida and Nevada have a huge tax advantage over most markets. I think the worst is Quebec.

 

[Fourier]

Some states like Florida and Nevada have a huge tax advantage over most markets. I think the worst is Quebec.

This reddit post gives a bit of a sense of the advantage a team like Vegas has due to tax differential.



The numbers suggest a little over $7M vs the Oilers. That's probably high because not all Knights games are in Vegas but $5M is very reasonable. An extra $5M in cap space next year would be huge for the Oilers.

(Added in Edit: I am not sure if all of these numbers are correct even without considering road games but the basic premise is reasonable.)

 

[McShogun99]

I'm skeptical that a guy who was pedestrian for a good chunk of his prime years is going to sustain a late career renaissance.



Well, that's the kicker. Is Fleury at 33 and, say, $7M a year going to give you that much more than Talbot at $5M? I'm not sure.



The odds of Fleury keeping this up long term are damn slim. And then you're stuck with him and a fat contract for years to come.

He just needs to be average and he’ll already be doing better then Talbot. Plus goalies tend to stay on top of their game until their late 30’s.

 

[GameChanger]

This reddit post gives a bit of a sense of the advantage a team like Vegas has due to tax differential.



The numbers suggest a little over $7M vs the Oilers. That's probably high because not all Knights games are in Vegas but $5M is very reasonable. An extra $5M in cap space next year would be huge for the Oilers.

That's an interesting post, thanks! I've always wondered how come you can have this kind of a salary cap system with such differences in taxation. Especially many Canadian teams have to be run better than some American teams, because their salary cap is kind of 10-15% lower.

A competent GM can utilize that extra advantage in many ways (less need to trade assets, better chance to leave open cap space for trade deadline moves, a chance to pay extra for a player you really want in your team, the possibility of making some bad mistakes but still fighting for the cup...).

 

[iCanada]

This reddit post gives a bit of a sense of the advantage a team like Vegas has due to tax differential.



The numbers suggest a little over $7M vs the Oilers. That's probably high because not all Knights games are in Vegas but $5M is very reasonable. An extra $5M in cap space next year would be huge for the Oilers.

(Added in Edit: I am not sure if all of these numbers are correct even without considering road games but the basic premise is reasonable.)

Does this consider the "jock tax" that all states have?

 

[Little Fury]

He just needs to be average and he’ll already be doing better then Talbot.

That doesn't make sense since unless you're one of those people who thinks, in defiance of all evidence, that Talbot is below average.

Plus goalies tend to stay on top of their game until their late 30’s.

Lol what? No they don't.

That's not peanuts. That's filet mignon. A whole truck load of filet mignon. It's the opposite of peanuts.

Lottery tickets that's all.

 

[CycloneSweep]

That doesn't make sense since unless you're one of those people who thinks, in defiance of all evidence, that Talbot is below average.



Lol what? No they don't.



Lottery tickets that's all.

I mean if you consider first and second round picks just lottery tickets than the Reinhart trade was fine. We gave up nothing for nothing! /S

 

[CupofOil]

Easily.

But I don't imagine the Pens would be into that. Kessel put up 90 points this season.

If Kessel gets dealt they probably are looking for a cheaper 2nd liner to play with Malkin and a good pick or prospect to make up for the difference between Kessel and said 2nd line player. I don't think Lucic is going to cut it as that 2nd line winger either.

I think if the Oilers wanted to add Kessel it would be something like: RNH+10th OA.

(Incoming posters saying they wouldn't deal RNH straight up for Kessel)

I'd be very nervous trading good young players for a 30+ year old forward. Trading a 19 year Puljujarvi for a 30 year old Kessel (31 to start next season) just seems like the type of move that will come back to bite them 2-3 years down the line and the Oilers couldn't afford to fit that in their cap structure anyway.

I certainly wouldn't trade RNH+10th for a winger unless it's a winger who is a long term solution. I'd rather package those assets for a top pairing puckmoving Dman anyway.