The Missing Piece
What's Left?
- Sep 19, 2012
- 1,527
- 417
I did a little exercise last night and I think it might be interesting to share my results. Really what sparked it was seeing Brown get promoted to second/third line and of course he scores the GWG in the third period and I thought to myself wow every line is dangerous and really can put the puck in the net. But I wanted to see if I could quantify this belief I had.
So I started by ranking our forwards relative to one another in terms of their offensive capabilities.
My rankings went like this:
1. Matthews -Line 1
2. Nylander -Line 1
3. Marner - Line 4
4. Kadri - Line 3
5. JVR - Line 2
6. Marleau - Line 3
7. Brown - Line 2
8. Bozak -Line 2
9. Leivo - PB
10. Komarov -Line 3
11. Moore -Line 4
12. Hyman -Line 1
13. Fehr -PB
14. Martin -Line 4
Then I took the line averages. *For example Line 1 Matthews, Nylander and Hyman = (1,2,12)/3 =5. I then subtract 1 to make the scale with a top offensive score of 1. Ie top 3 offensive players would be ranked 1+2+3= which would equal 6 divide by 3 to get average=2-1=1. So the Matthews line (line 1) ends up with a adjusted score of 4. Whereby a lower score (with 1 as the max) is the most offensive a line could get based on the players available to the team.
The lines look like this
Line 1 = 4
Line 2= 5.66
Line 3= 5.66
Line 4= 8.33
Whereby 6 would be an average of all players ranked.
When you look at the results, it is clear there is a very small variance between our most offensively gifted line and the least. If we were to take Caps for example you would notice that the gap between their first line and there lowest line would be significantly more.
I can see now why the leafs have had such an ability to score, not only do they have a lot of high end scorers but they also are distributed relatively evenly across the four lines which makes for the potential threat of any line doing damage at any time.
In conclusion I think the leafs will be a very hard to team to try and line match for home coaches. This is the main advantage of being at home with the last change. As such, my prediction then is that the leafs home and away records will likely be relatively approximate to one another this season.
Thoughts?
So I started by ranking our forwards relative to one another in terms of their offensive capabilities.
My rankings went like this:
1. Matthews -Line 1
2. Nylander -Line 1
3. Marner - Line 4
4. Kadri - Line 3
5. JVR - Line 2
6. Marleau - Line 3
7. Brown - Line 2
8. Bozak -Line 2
9. Leivo - PB
10. Komarov -Line 3
11. Moore -Line 4
12. Hyman -Line 1
13. Fehr -PB
14. Martin -Line 4
Then I took the line averages. *For example Line 1 Matthews, Nylander and Hyman = (1,2,12)/3 =5. I then subtract 1 to make the scale with a top offensive score of 1. Ie top 3 offensive players would be ranked 1+2+3= which would equal 6 divide by 3 to get average=2-1=1. So the Matthews line (line 1) ends up with a adjusted score of 4. Whereby a lower score (with 1 as the max) is the most offensive a line could get based on the players available to the team.
The lines look like this
Line 1 = 4
Line 2= 5.66
Line 3= 5.66
Line 4= 8.33
Whereby 6 would be an average of all players ranked.
When you look at the results, it is clear there is a very small variance between our most offensively gifted line and the least. If we were to take Caps for example you would notice that the gap between their first line and there lowest line would be significantly more.
I can see now why the leafs have had such an ability to score, not only do they have a lot of high end scorers but they also are distributed relatively evenly across the four lines which makes for the potential threat of any line doing damage at any time.
In conclusion I think the leafs will be a very hard to team to try and line match for home coaches. This is the main advantage of being at home with the last change. As such, my prediction then is that the leafs home and away records will likely be relatively approximate to one another this season.
Thoughts?
