Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt VII: Things keep happening!

[BlueForever75]

Given how Kirk and Moreno have performed the last two years, there have probably been 29 teams trying to get them over that time.

True. But any teams that have a need for a starting OF as well. Someone like Grichuk plus Moreno or Kirk?

I know it has been mentioned in Lindor or Snell talks, our catching depth was of interest. At least that is what I remember reading.

 

[phillipmike]

Top 100 MLB prospects for 2021: The best No. 1 since Mike Trout and Bryce Harper

14. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 24 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Tools: Fastball 70/70, Slider 65/70, Curveball 45/50, Changeup 50/55, Command 45/50
Present/Future Value: 45/60

If you want to dream on an ace from this list but would prefer a more heavy metal approach than a graceful orchestral number, Pearson is your guy. He's been up to 101 mph many times, 102 mph before, sitting 95-100 mph in many starts. His mid-80s power slider is hellacious, and he's a deceptively good athlete with enough body control and finesse that, even at 6-foot-6, 245 pounds, he has the ability and has shown an above-average changeup and average command.
In his MLB debut in 2020, he gave glimpses of this complete version of himself but more often would get in destructive patterns of missing by a bit, getting behind, then trying to overthrow, which would snowball on him.

While he may look like a future reliever at first blush, his outlook depends on how well he can dial down and adjust to make things work. Possessing 45-grade command (quality strikes) and 50-grade control (any kind of strike) may be enough to make Pearson a front-line starter, while almost anything more than that could make him an ace.

38. Austin Martin, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Future Value: 55

Martin was one of the easier draft prospects to evaluate leading into the 2020 spring as he'd starred for two years for Vanderbilt and Team USA, performing well everywhere with similar tools the whole time. He was a plus to plus-plus contact threat (highest rate of 95+ exit velocities in the SEC) with average raw power that he was learning to get to, deceptively plus speed, and enough defensive ability to play somewhere up the middle, along with third base.

In the limited look scouts got in the 2020 spring, Martin had difficulty making the throw from the left side of the infield and was showing more like average speed. For those without much history, they thought they saw a left fielder without much in-game power, while those with history assumed Martin was hurt in some way. I didn't see Martin (the season was canceled a week before I was set to get my first 2020 look) but had run into a similar thing with Trea Turner in the past, when he looked somewhat hurt and generally out of sorts after torching the ACC for two seasons. Turner slipped to 13th overall in 2014 and Martin only lasted until the 5th pick.

Indications from the alternate site is that Toronto saw the previous version of Martin and that, going forward, they'll have a plus contact, decent power, plus runner sticking long term at second, third or center field (all places he's played capably as an amateur) and getting some shortstop reps as well.

47. Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 21 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Future Value: 50

Groshans was immediately a scout favorite on the showcase circuit because he looked like a 17-year-old version of Josh Donaldson. Donaldson adopted his signature swing in the big leagues, so he definitely didn't look like Groshans did as a teen -- but Groshans tools look like he could one day turn into a Donaldson type.

Groshans is an above-average athlete with solid average speed, plus raw power, plus bat speed, a plus arm and tools to be at least average at third base defensively. He had a foot injury late in 2019 that scuttled what was a solid age-19 performance in low-A. So there's a little more risk than with the recently drafted duo of Veen and Hassell because rival clubs haven't seen Groshans play since May of 2019, while Veen and Hassell both starred against the best of their peers playing with wood bats in the summer after that.

Groshans' tools are for real and it sounds like he's all systems go for 2021, but hitting the ground running early this season will likely also cause him to rise more than other comparably ranked talents.

90. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Future Value: 50

Woods Richardson probably isn't a front-line big league starter and, unlike most elite prospects chosen out of high school, isn't particularly physically projectable. Those are reasons he lasted until the second round in 2018.

He was dealt by the Mets in the Marcus Stroman deal during a breakout 2019 season when, like No. 92 Balazovic, he went from low-A to high-A with crisper stuff and elite performance. Woods Richardson is also somewhat limited by not having a clear plus tool, but he has three pitches and command that are all arguably above average, so a No. 3 or 4 starter is a reasonable expectation.

96. Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Future Value: 50

Kirk is a fun prospect to like because he has a unique frame for a catcher and he's a really good hitter. There's long-term worries about how good of a catcher he'll be due to his size and lateral quickness. His big frame helps make him a strong pitch framer and he works well with pitchers, so a move to automatic strike calling in the coming years may also hurt his long-term value. His high contact rate means he'll always find his way into a lineup, but probably with average at-best in-game power.

More than any other player on this list, Kirk is in demand now (the forward-thinking type clubs are especially interested, particularly given Toronto's surplus of good catchers) and projects to have a lot of trade value the next few years, but that may tail off near the end of his six-plus years of team control.

How bright is your MLB team's future? Kiley McDaniel ranks all 30 farm systems

11. Toronto Blue Jays ($230 million)

Last year: 20th, $187 million (tied for biggest rankings improvement, fifth-biggest value improvement)

Top 100 prospects: 5
The Jays just had one wave of young talent graduate to the majors (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and didn't graduate anyone of consequence in 2020. There's a few stragglers who still have prospect eligibility (Nate Pearson and Alejandro Kirk), followed by another wave forming behind them (Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Simeon Woods Richardson, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Manoah, Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo).

There has been some free-agent supplementation in George Springer, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Marcus Semien along with about $50 million coming off the books after this season in case the Blue Jays want to dip into the big-money end of the free-agent pool again. It's an enviable position for an organization to be in overall, with some payroll upside, a lot of young talent and a real contender status right now -- a version (with more cash to spend) of what this management group had helped put together in Cleveland. Toronto is basically a year or two ahead of what the Giants (at No. 12) will probably do, and the Jays have a lot of options in terms of how to use all of their capital to compete in a brutal division.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

Sigh...

Average major league fastball in 2020 - 93.1 mph
Biggio wOBA against 93 mph fastballs - .381
Biggio wOBA against 94 mph fastballs - .385
Biggio wOBA against 95+ mph fastballs - .282

So far, Biggio has struggled against above average fastballs and completely dominated average fastballs. But sure, Keith, change the goalposts as much as you need to to make yourself feel better.

Meanwhile, Biggio has definitely benefited from September competition with a 138 wRC+. Teams might want to start thinking about using their good pitchers in June (120 wRC+) and August (124 wRC+) instead of the garbage they've been using the last couple years, though.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[BlueForever75]

I agree. Panik deal doesnt mean SP isnt still being looked at. Its an obvious hole.

 

[TopChedder]

I agree. Panik deal doesnt mean SP isnt still being looked at. Its an obvious hole.

Agreed. However I am a tad concerned that pitching is not being addressed.

 

[BlueForever75]

Agreed. However I am a tad concerned that pitching is not being addressed.

In due time. Something will be added. The Phelps deal solidified the bullpen. I think something will happen soon. Getting to close to Spring Training for it not too. Dominos will start to fall.

 

[Discoverer]

Are there actually people in real life who think signing a reliever and a minor league infielder has the slightest impact on their plans for the rotation? Like... there's no way anyone actually thinks that, right?

 

[BlueForever75]

Are there actually people in real life who think signing a reliever and a minor league infielder has the slightest impact on their plans for the rotation? Like... there's no way anyone actually thinks that, right?

Ya there are some as the tweet suggested. But your absolutely right it doesnt.

The Jays like all of their educated fans, know SP needs to be re-enforced. Its a matter of time.

 

[Discoverer]

Ya there are some as the tweet suggested. But your absolutely right it doesnt.

The Jays like all of their educated fans, know SP needs to be re-enforced. Its a matter of time.

I doubt the guy in the tweet actually thinks one impacts the other, though, despite using the Panik pun in his question.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm starting to get the feeling the Jays are planning to piggyback multiple starting rotation spots this year. Guessing they plan on Ryu and someone else(Ororizzi, Paxton, etc) going the regular length and then using their stable of Pearson and "trash"(5 of Ray, Stripling, Roark, Matz, Merryweather, Kay, Hatch) to fill the remaining 3 rotation spots in a piggyback where they can both go 4 innings and get to the 9th before you have to go to the pen. Then a 5 or 6 man pen with Yates, Romano, Dolis, Chatwood, Phelps, and Borucki. Just seems like there's way too many back end guys and while the prospects like Kay and Hatch can and likely will go to the minors, I don't think you want 2 of Stripling, Roark and Matz in the pen. Something like

Ryu
Odorizzi
Pearson/Matz
Ray/Stripling
Roark/Kay

Yates
Romano
Dolis
Chatwood
Phelps
Borucki

as the pitching staff. Gives 3 righty/lefty pairs to piggyback. That would leave just a 3 man bench however.

Roark will disapprove though, but I don't think the Jays care. Can just replace him with Hatch if needed.

 

[metafour]

One thing to note re: Biggio: if the MLB goes through and deadens the baseball, his performance is one to watch. I believe he had one of the lowest average HR distance rates among guys who hit a decent number of HR's. With his already low BA, he runs the risk of dropping significantly if his power output takes a hit.

There's some real risk there as several of these "came out of nowhere great hitters" are obviously benefitting from a juiced ball.

 

[Discoverer]

One thing to note re: Biggio: if the MLB goes through and deadens the baseball, his performance is one to watch. I believe he had one of the lowest average HR distance rates among guys who hit a decent number of HR's. With his already low BA, he runs the risk of dropping significantly if his power output takes a hit.

There's some real risk there as several of these "came out of nowhere great hitters" are obviously benefitting from a juiced ball.

Great point... this is a legitimate thing to be concerned about with Biggio, for sure. His average HR distance was 379 feet last year, putting him 133rd out of 142 qualified hitters (still 18 feet more than LeMahieu!)

What I like about Biggio is that if his power drops off, he's still probably a roughly league average hitter and something like a 2 fWAR player. I'm perfectly fine with that for the next few years. My hope is that he'll adjust his approach enough that he takes advantage of hittable pitches a bit more rather than watching so many of them go by.

 

[Cor]

 

[Da Cool Rula]

Catching is a hot commodity. Alot of teams could use an upgrade in their system. Only reason I think its the Pirates is because of Cherrington being there and knowing our prospects.

That being said, I really dont like anything else the Pirates have on their roster that can better the Jays in the immediate future. Steven Brault or Chad Kuhl are interesting, but are they really upgrades to our starting pitching? I think not. Not for our catching prospects.

But if it has been for 2 years, I cannot figure out who the organization can be.

Yeah I saw a tweet a day or 2 ago mentioning this and hinted it might be Cherrington.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

Wait Roark is in a contract year. Expect a great season.



Hmmmm. Ok not funny

 

[CatchyTune]

Wait Roark is in a contract year. Expect a great season.



Hmmmm. Ok not funny

Not expecting him to be great, but am i the only one that wants to hang onto him?

Ive seen all offseason not to overrate guys after a good 60 game season (Bauer), and i could flip that around and say not to underrate guys after a bad 60 game season.

Up until last year Roark has been a reliable mid rotation guy. Worst case scenario is he is just a guy who can give you innings as he is pretty consistent in that.

 

[xxOCZMSxx]

Not expecting him to be great, but am i the only one that wants to hang onto him?

Ive seen all offseason not to overrate guys after a good 60 game season (Bauer), and i could flip that around and say not to underrate guys after a bad 60 game season.

Up until last year Roark has been a reliable mid rotation guy. Worst case scenario is he is just a guy who can give you innings as he is pretty consistent in that.

You keep wishing on stars kid.

 

[CatchyTune]

You keep wishing on stars kid.

its not really a wish, its more of a tempered expectation. i expect him to not be terrible. not wishing for the moon here.