Observations XIX

[Roman Yoshi]

Lost in the Jarnkrok vs. Neal debate is... why not both?

If the cap goes up to the expected 80M, you could fit Neal back in next season without too many problems. Even with Ellis looming, you have Smith coming off the books and Rinne as well. Interesting question.

From the sounds of it, Neal still considers Nashville Home. He still has his house here.

I could and would like to see it happen.

 

[Detelethisaccount]

Hartnell Sissons Watson


Would love to see that

Agree, then have Aberg-Bonino-Jarnkrok as the other line? If Aberg can start scoring it would be like having two 3rd lines. Would make Lavy's job pretty easy to have two basically interchangeable sets of lines.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Lost in the Jarnkrok vs. Neal debate is... why not both?

If the cap goes up to the expected 80M, you could fit Neal back in next season without too many problems. Even with Ellis looming, you have Smith coming off the books and Rinne as well. Interesting question.

From the sounds of it, Neal still considers Nashville Home. He still has his house here.

I could and would like to see it happen.

Do you shift Arvy to LW if Neal comes back? Because that would give us Arvidsson, Neal, Smith, and Tolvanen not to mention guys like Aberg, Salomaki and Watson who can and do play RW.

Next, I'm not disputing that Neal would like to be or or that he considers Nashville home. But I imagine he still has a home here because he is on the last year of a contract with an expansion team. He probably wants to wait until he signs a new deal before he relocates his housing situation.

 

[101st_fan]

Lost in the Jarnkrok vs. Neal debate is... why not both?

If the cap goes up to the expected 80M, you could fit Neal back in next season without too many problems. Even with Ellis looming, you have Smith coming off the books and Rinne as well. Interesting question.

From the sounds of it, Neal still considers Nashville Home. He still has his house here.

I could and would like to see it happen.

Smith doesn't come off the books until after 2019/20.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Smith doesn't come off the books until after 2019/20.

Meant to say the Josi and Ellis extensions. Smith coming off helps with Josi and Rinne helps with Ellis.

We also get our from under the Stalberg/Nystrom buyouts.

If Neal doesn’t take a huge pay day (5.5M) we could make it work if the cap really does go to 80M.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

Joey has been placed on IR

 

[NSH615]

Joey has been placed on IR

They back dated it to 12/2. So technically he can be pulled off this weekend. I'd say this likely means that Hartnell is coming off today. They have to clear a spot to activate him.


Also another goalie swap. Saros down, Lindback up.

 

[triggrman]

If it was a concussion he had to be out for a week.

 

[NSH615]

If it was a concussion he had to be out for a week.

I understand that, it's just waiting til day 6 to put him on IR that's weird. Makes me think they need the roster spot.

 

[Pred303]

every assist is not equal. i've argued this for years. in general first assists are typically twice as important as 2nd assists tend to be (not always of course but usually). First assists tell you guys that are truly driving the goal much more so than second assists (again usually). Sure sometimes second assists might have really helped make the play, i.e. the pass that breaks you out into a two one often, the first pass in a true tic tac toe play. But in general first assists help define the true 'playmakers', especially among forwards. Think about in basketball if an assist were rewarded for anyone that made the pass to the guy who made the pass to the guy that scored a goal. Or what if an assist were rewarded to the guy that missed a shot that was rebounded and scored by someone else?

this year's list of first and second assists;
Forsberg 11 first, 3 second
Josi 9, 4
Turris 8, 7 (all games)
Subban 8,6
Johansen 7, 7
Ekholm 7, 5
Fiala 6, 7
Jarnkrok 5, 2
Sissons 4, 3
Smith 4, 2
Arvy 3, 7
Emelin 3, 2
Salomaki 3, 0
Hartnell 2, 1
Irwin 2, 1
Weber 2, 0
Watson 1, 1
Aberg 1, 1
Gaudreau 0, 3
Bonino 0, 1

of course the guys we expect like Johansen and Turris show as playmakers here (as well as Josi, Subban, Ekholm on the d side). But really shows what Forsberg has brought to us besides just goal scoring. And maybe Jarnkrok is doing a better job here this year ( the ratio of first assists was much lower last year). Also at a glance shows that Arvy and Smith are shooters, not passers. And points to the fact that Bonino is not a playmaker. Also highlights what Fiala has done to set up guys.

guess which 2 players have the most overall assists per 60 minutes of game time played? Turris (2.06 per 60, 38th in league) and Fiala (1.98 per 60, 40th in the league).

 

[MrJoshua]

303, what do you think about first assists on passes versus first assists on rebound goals? For example, when Weber was here it seemed like a lot of his assists came from his shot generating a loose puck one of the forwards could get into the net, as opposed to Johansen who generates a lot of assists from good passing. Or is there any reason to differentiate since they're both making plays that lead to goals?

The reason I ask is, it seems like this year the team is making more good passing plays leading to goals, whereas in the Trotz era there were a lot of goals generated by getting the puck to the front of the net and having the guys mucking around in the crease to pick up the garbage. They both count and they both take a particular skill set, but it seems like this year the team has even fewer muckers than usual. Maybe it just feels that way because Hartnell has missed so much time?

 

[Pred303]

hard to say josh for sure. so many goals are scored off deflections and rebounds in this league that they are all inseperable. and rebounds score goals. so many point shots are taken specifically to allow deflections or cause rebounds. (which is why on a 2 on 1 i always like seeing the puck carrier shoot low and to the weakside to generate rebounds for the other guy if he doesn't have a clean spot himself to shoot at). virtually all of Subban-Ekholm first assists are really slappers that created a rebound (Josi some but a few more straight passes because of his penetrating).

i'm not knocking 2nd assists at all really, it's just that first assists tend to be more important in causing the goal of course and probably should be noted seperately in stats.

but i do totally agree Josh that we are a much better passing and playmaking team then we were since at least 2007. So yeah we make far more 'passing' assists than we have for years.

 

[wadesworld]

I was angry about it before and just had this feeling that we burned our bridge with Neal, but after reading his comments yesterday to the Tennessean have changed that.

If Neal loves Nashville that much, he can give us a bargain when his contract is up.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

What would you be willing to give up to sign Neal as a rental in February? 2nd rounder?

 

[NSH615]

What would you be willing to give up to sign Neal as a rental in February? 2nd rounder?

On their current path, Vegas isn't trading him. However the price will likely be a 1st and a prospect and I say no to that. Plus that will really jack up the chemistry. He'd have to play on the 3rd line with Bonino.

 

[Pred303]

ok enough neal speculation, we never know what the situation will be come the trade deadline with it still so far away, or who knows what we might really need most come then. Or who will be sellers. Or who will really be available.

Let's worry about tonight's game. need a win before this road trip to western Canada. Possible trap game coming back off the road for one home game before heading back out. Against an unknown that you risk taking too lightly.

Haven't watched too much of Vegas, but you know Neal and their Subban will be fired up. I just know this is a dangerous home game for us.

Was hoping we would hear Hartnell had been reactivated and that was the reason for Johansen being placed on IR but haven't heard that so far. One just never knows what exactly Johansen's status really is with any type of concussion (which i assume it is). Worry about that a little, we need him back.

 

[Pred303]

well, there went a point gone forever. a home point. a lead with 30 seconds left where we cann't win a single key faceoff to win the game. jarnkrok with three losses, turris with one all with an empty net and less than 2 minutes to play. that was anti clutch for a team that had won 60% of faceoffs until then..

 

[Pred303]

yep. still disappointed this morning.

 

[bdub24]

Or....even in a loss we gather a point. Which beats completely losing...

 

[wadesworld]

well, there went a point gone forever. a home point. a lead with 30 seconds left where we cann't win a single key faceoff to win the game. jarnkrok with three losses, turris with one all with an empty net and less than 2 minutes to play. that was anti clutch for a team that had won 60% of faceoffs until then..

Why Jarnkrok would ever take a face-off in a crucial situation, I just don't know. He doesn't win them. Sissons should be in there.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

One Subban played really well last night. The other played a stupidly selfish game.

I knew we weren't going to win after we couldn't stop icing the puck and couldn't win a face off.

Really frustrated.

 

[Pred303]

random thoughts;

..in the last 16 games, we have led in the third period. and managed to go 12-2-2.
..whichever way you want to look at that, positive or positive with negatives, you are correct.
..arvidsson almost singlehandedly earned us the point we did get.
..except for the smith post and the forsberg one, our shootout attempts were downright pitiful
..turris got an assist, but thought he didn't play well.

..we have now gone 5 consecutive games without a goal from our defensemen. cann't remember the last time that happened.
..subban has no points at all in his last 7 games now. which partly shows how the 1st unit pp has cooled.
..the breakdown on the PK goal allowed was bad. Ekholm nor the forwards ever got to where they needed to be.
..josi wasn't a factor in this game either.
..we simply never recovered from the Fiala delay penalty at the 4:34 mark of regulation. not another shot.

..the icings killed us. again.
..rinne with some near unbelievable stops to hold off the tie for as long as he did and then again a great one at the end of overtime. an example of how a goalie can give up 3 goals yet still have played great.
..didn't like the subban empty net attempt from behind the goal line. i don't care if he has lucked in two from there this year, it's just not percentage hockey.
..bad hockey luck on the last two vegas goals. two deflections off us. one in the net, one straight onto neal's stick
..neal. a true sniper that simply knows exactly where to set up to be ready to shoot the puck.
..we were actually lucky Neal didn't score twice before the tieing goal.

..the 'official' box score is wrong. for the last goal it has subban and emelin on ice instead of josi. and the puck went off josi.
..bonino might wind up having 15-20 goals and less than 10 assists this year. he can score and he can forecheck but i''ve seen nothing from him puckhandling nor passing.
..on the bonino goal, it showed how random hockey can really be. if he shoots the puck as soon as the pass from arvy hits him he probably shoots into their goalie because he hasn't had time to react. but instead he fumbles it a split second and has to kick it to his stick before he shoots and because of that second subban has had time to react and move back toward his left so the puck goes in where he was.
..game after game we have far more giveaways than our opponents. 15-8 in this game. arvy, subban, ekholm each with 2. we do a good job on takeaways with our forecheck, but we make far too many unforced giveaways ourselves night after night.
..the PP let us down. another old saying that if you don't score on a 5 on 3 you normally lose proved true.
..the only true odd man rush we generated, was the one where bonino shoots the puck straight into subban with half the net open.

the worst thing about this one is we have 3 more days to stew over it.

 

[101st_fan]

Why Jarnkrok would ever take a face-off in a crucial situation, I just don't know. He doesn't win them. Sissons should be in there.

Sissons does have a higher face off win percentage but Jarnkrok is at just under 52% won for the season.

 

[INDhockeyfan]

People have to remember that we kept icing the puck meaning we didn't have a choice in who we had out there to take the faceoff a number of times. I think 303 said it before that our biggest problem is the lack of size with our forwards in the empty net situation. It isn't just about winning the faceoff but winning the puck battles and we couldn't do that at all. We also lack LH centers. Bonino is the only left handed center we have. We probably have the most RH centers in the league. If Joey was out there we may have won that game but he's injured. The new rule about not being able to call a timeout after an icing is also hurting us as guys were gassed and they need to rethink going for the empty net

 

[Armourboy]

Feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but it was something I did observe that got me a bit hot at the time. We had pretty much controlled most of Overtime, the guys were doing a decent job of keeping the puck on their end and still getting a chance here or there. Then Subban came on to the ice and everything changed and frankly I felt like we did good to get to the shootout after that. I understand high risk/high reward, but his play last night felt like all risk and no reward.

Also agree on Turris, thought it was the first game where he wasn't really good, granted I'm not sure his linemates were that good last night either.

Oh and I also read several comments that said Vegas was actually good. Let me say after finally having a chance to watch them, the system is good and the coach is good, but frankly if it wasn't for that, they would look just about like every expansion team out there. They may indeed make the playoffs, but we all know how the playoffs ramp up, and there is a part of me that was watching them thinking they don't really have anything to ramp up, they are already at about max.