Observations XIX

[triggrman]

Smith playing with an actual offensive center has to have an impact on his performance

 

[Pred303]

unlike many it seems, i actually have liked emelins game for the past 10-15 games.

and mr josh does bring an important chicken and egg type questions regarding turris and fiala-smith. is turris what has changed their play? or has their waking up made turris look so good?.. personally i think it's a little of both. both got hot just as turris arrived, so i have to give him some of the credit for sure. but have to admit that most of those even strnegth goals those guys have scored since have tended to be more individual moves. we talk about forsberg's PP points (14 of 28), but turris has 8 of his 12 with us on the PP as well. this is where he has really been strongest for us, on that 2nd unit PP.

of course, admittedly, our increase in PP goals and points this year has really been spread out;
forsberg 14, josi 9, subban 9, ekholm 9, turris 8, smith 7... so if our PP struggles would expect all those guys point totals to come down some. as those first 5 (and hartnell) all have half or more of their points on the PP now. 8 PP goals for Forsberg is a large number.

even strength scoring you also have a pretty distributed scoring attack:
arvidsson 14
forsberg 14
johanssen 12
smith 10
fiala 10
josi 10
jarnkrok 10
ekholm 9
subban 9

 

[triggrman]

I like Emelin too. He's a stay at home physical defender and while not much as a need in today's NHL the need is still there. I also like him paired with 2 bit in that 3rd pairing.

That Fiala Smith Turris line has fantastic chemistry

 

[Osprey]

Clearing Neal's salary from the books was part of a larger plan to then sign Duchene which then morphed into Turris. If you don't get that Poile was willing to accept risk by leaving Neal unprotected, knowing he'd get picked up by Vegas, so that he could then make subsequent moves .... well, it is then difficult to have this discussion. The myopic losing Neal to keep Jarnkrok is not focused on the right areas. The move Poile made was to leave Neal exposed to then have room for Bonino, Duchene/Turris and in the process solidify the top nine for years to come ... with two legitimate threat top lines.

Poile was playing grandmaster level chess, the Jarnkrok/Neal comparison doesn't reach the level of checkers.

It's not "grandmaster level chess" to give away what you could trade for equal value. If I just let you capture my queen without taking one or more pieces of equal or greater value from you in return, I'm an idiot. If I can sacrifice my queen to capture yours, however, that's a fair trade that could end up being a smart one.

If Poile had a "larger plan" to free up Neal's salary and turn it into Duchene or Turris, he could've simply traded him. It's a red herring to point to the benefits of clearing that salary when that's not the argument. The argument is how that salary was cleared: it was given away instead of traded away for something in return.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

It's not "grandmaster level chess" to give away what you could trade for equal value. If I just let you capture my queen without taking one or more pieces of equal or greater value from you in return, I'm an idiot. If I can sacrifice my queen to capture yours, however, that's a fair trade that could end up being a smart one.

If Poile had a "larger plan" to free up Neal's salary and turn it into Duchene or Turris, he could've simply traded him. It's a red herring to point to the benefits of clearing that salary when that's not the argument. The argument is how that salary was cleared: it was given away instead of traded away for something in return.

When was he supposed to have traded him?

 

[gopreds19]

Poole was visibly upset at the awards ceremony, and tried to do all he could to keep Neal but vegas wouldn’t have it. I think he was going to make a solid run at Dutchy, regardless, but he couldn’t have foreseen the circumstances that would have made it happen, and certainly not to the degree to give away a 30-goal scorer for nothing.

He even said himself that the only thing that made the Turris/Dutchy trade possible was Girard standing out at the beginning of the season and Ellis getting hurt.

Those things couldn’t have been known when he left Neal exposed.

 

[Osprey]

When was he supposed to have traded him?

Does it matter? What are you suggesting, that his hands were tied and he had no choice but to lose an excellent asset for nothing?

 

[King Weber]

The NHL Needs a Super Team and Here's How It Can Happen

interesting scenario. I mean, it is a complete pipe dream, but still.

 

[Armourboy]

Does it matter? What are you suggesting, that his hands were tied and he had no choice but to lose an excellent asset for nothing?

Wasn't a normal off-season, the amount he could have gotten in return may have been lower due to teams protection lists. That also includes teams maybe not wanting to make trades for the same reasons.

I wasn't happy with the decision, but right now things seem to have worked themselves out.

 

[Softball99]

Losing James Neal in Expansion Draft tough reality for Predators

"Now it's up to me and my staff to replace James," Poile said. "That starts when we head to Chicago and the [2017 NHL] Draft [on Thursday], and we get into the interview period for unrestricted free agents."
The loss of Neal wasn't a surprise to the Predators or to Neal. Poile said talked to Neal at the end of the season about the possibility of him being exposed to Vegas and discussed it with Neal's agent in recent days.
"I was trying to work a deal with George but I was unsuccessful," Poile said. "[Neal] and I are on good terms [but] he didn't want to go. I think he thought that Nashville was a home for him. It's not perfect for him or perfect for us."

I think he figures it's easier to reacquire Neal than Jarny

 

[Osprey]

Wasn't a normal off-season, the amount he could have gotten in return may have been lower due to teams protection lists. That also includes teams maybe not wanting to make trades for the same reasons.

That may be true, but it was an abnormal off-season for the other 29 teams, too, and all but Florida didn't expose one of their top goal scorers. Ottawa was in the same situation with Turris, a UFA in a year, like Neal, yet they protected him. Should they have exposed him, instead, on the justification that they would've had a hard time getting proper value for him before the expansion draft? That would've been silly. Instead, they held onto him until the market returned to normal and they could get proper value for him. That was the smart thing to do.

 

[triggrman]

No it was about keeping as many assets locked up long term as possible.

I said it Christmas of last season, that I thought Poile would protect Jarnkrok over Neal, it made sense to me then, an it still makes sense now.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Does it matter? What are you suggesting, that his hands were tied and he had no choice but to lose an excellent asset for nothing?

That may be true, but it was an abnormal off-season for the other 29 teams, too, and all but Florida didn't expose one of their top goal scorers. Ottawa was in the same situation with Turris, a UFA in a year, like Neal, yet they protected him. Should they have exposed him, instead, on the justification that they would've had a hard time getting proper value for him before the expansion draft? That would've been silly. Instead, they held onto him until the market returned to normal and they could get proper value for him. That was the smart thing to do.

What was Neal's trade value after the season with the expansion draft coming up?
Please tell me what good it did Ottawa to protect Turris. I don't know what/who they lost but they got f*** all for Turris, no wait, they actually got raped trying to replace him because he wasn't going to re-sign with them

 

[RickP]

The NHL Needs a Super Team and Here's How It Can Happen

interesting scenario. I mean, it is a complete pipe dream, but still.

That would be really interesting, indeed. You have to wonder though, if all those star players could manage to be as effective, playing less minutes. I mean they would still be great players, but they wouldn't all play on the power play, at least not as much as they already do, the D pairings would play 18-22 minutes per game etc... That would definately be exciting to watch though.

 

[drwpreds]

The NHL Needs a Super Team and Here's How It Can Happen

interesting scenario. I mean, it is a complete pipe dream, but still.

It is never, ever going to happen, but holy crap is it fun to just close your eyes for a minute and imagine us with that roster.....

 

[Aardvarksson]

That would be really interesting, indeed. You have to wonder though, if all those star players could manage to be as effective, playing less minutes. I mean they would still be great players, but they wouldn't all play on the power play, at least not as much as they already do, the D pairings would play 18-22 minutes per game etc... That would definately be exciting to watch though.

They'd be fresh for the playoffs, that's for sure!

 

[LCPreds]

Again he didn’t let Neal go for nothing. You may not value Jarnkrok at all but he does have some value.

And I think that will be my final post regarding Neal and Vegas. It’s so old and this team is doing so well that I still don’t understand how it’s the one topic that can move posts as fast as a GDT.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I’m not going to get dragged back into the Neal vs Jarnkrok thing. My opinion is well documented.

Instead, I’m just going to enjoy the fact we have a very solid team this year that is on a very impressive hot streak. Only hotter team right now is LA who have won 7 in a row.

I’ll agree with Trig and 303, Emelin has looked substantially better maybe the last dozen games or so.

Tonight’s game has me a bit worried. We are due for a stinker and this Vegas team is really fast. In some ways, they remind me of some of those Redwings teams of old but without someone with the presence of Dats or Lidstrom.

They move the puck really well in transition and play well defensively as a unit. Very intriguing team. They don’t necessarily have “big” name guys, but guys like Haula and Reilly Smith are very underrated NHL players that make up their core. Can’t take this team lightly. I think we are up for the challange.

Johansen was bowling yesterday at the charity event, so you would hope he is close to returning. Let’s hope so. We are going to need him on this swing through western Canada.

One other observation: what happens when Harts comes back? You obviously don’t want to break up the top 2 lines, but I don’t think he really fits in well with Bonino. Bonino has shown very little promise offensively anywhere outside of about 8 feet from the net, exactly where Harts excels.

Our bottom lines are going to get really confusing after he returns, but you gotta think Freddy gets sent down again.

Jarnkrok
Watson
Sissons
Salomaki
Bonino
Hartnell
Aberg
McLeod

Have to find a way to make two effective lines out of that mess. I’d like to try

Salomaki Bonino Jarnkrok
Hartnell Sissons Watson

 

[FossilFndr]

Tonight’s game has me a bit worried

Channeling 303? Seems like most games have him a bit worried!

 

[triggrman]

Hartnell Sissons Watson


Would love to see that

 

[101st_fan]

If this was the case, why was Poile supposedly negotiating so hard with McPhee to keep Neal for this year? It's not like he was treating this as a straight cap dump to make room for Bonino/Duchene. Again, Poile has been a step ahead of almost every GM out there but I think you're giving him way too much credit calling this particular move grandmaster chess vs checkers.

Let me clarify something for you as it seems there was something in this post you also didn't get. I called the extremely flawed proposition that this was strictly a Neal/Jarnkrok decision as not reaching the level of checkers. Feel free to keep on your myopic rant about it though ... I find it hilarious.

 

[NSH615]

I was angry about it before and just had this feeling that we burned our bridge with Neal, but after reading his comments yesterday to the Tennessean have changed that.

Neal recognized in June that there was a "pretty good chance" that the Predators would exclude him from the nine-player protection list they submitted days before the expansion draft.

It made sense to him. The 30-year-old began this season with $5 million remaining on an expiring contract, funds that the Predators needed to re-sign younger core players during the offseason.
......
But Neal's connection to his former city and team remain strong.
“When I came to Nashville, I bought a house right away and wanted to make it home. And I did that," Neal said. "I still have my house there. It’ll be like I’m coming home.”

James Neal returns to Nashville thriving with Vegas Golden Knights

 

[Pred303]

some random number speak;


if we play .500 hockey from now until season end (27-27), we would finish with 93 points. (94 last year, when 88 would have made the playoffs)(admittedly an unusual low)
if we play .550 hockey (59 more points, or say 28-23-3), we would finish with 98 points (which SHOULD place us 3rd or 4th in division)
if we play .600 hockey (65 more points, or say 30-19-5), we would finish with 104 points. (which COULD win the division)
if we play .650 hockey (70 more points or say 34-18-2), we would finish with 109 points. (which SHOULD win the division and conference)
we are currently on a 113 point pace, .696 pace (the 06-07 team finished with a team record 110) (which would probably win the presidents trophy)

so this hot start really makes the outlook going forward for us look good.

 

[101st_fan]

Player decisions are rarely X or Y. IF it were strictly you can have either Neal or Jarnkrok based on skillsests alone and that decision exists in a vacuum, then it is a very simple, binary choice.

It is usually X (with a list of options that generates or limitations it places on the team) or Y (with a list of options that generates or limitations it places on the team). In this case Player X was a highly skilled offensive player on the final year of a somewhat costly contract (costly enough to limit other signing options) who was likely to test the UFA market and see what he could get. Player Y was a good, but far from great, utility forward that fits on a 3rd line but can play multiple positions and in every situation who is on a cost-effective long-term contract. By letting Player X go in the expansion draft and keeping Player Y, the team generated salary cap and roster options which it then used to bring in Player T, a 1st or 2nd line center signed for six seasons following this one, and Player B who is a 2nd or 3rd line center with Cup winning experience - signed through 2020/21. Those added pieces give us roster flexibility this season (as seen when Johansen went down) and contract stability for the next few seasons with only one of our current top nine reaching UFA status in 2020 or sooner (Smith, summer of 2020) and only a few of the youngsters hitting RFA status in the next few years (Salomaki this summer; Sissons, Fiala, and Aberg summer of 2019).

 

[101st_fan]

some random number speak;


if we play .500 hockey from now until season end (27-27), we would finish with 93 points. (94 last year, when 88 would have made the playoffs)(admittedly an unusual low)
if we play .550 hockey (59 more points, or say 28-23-3), we would finish with 98 points
if we play .600 hockey (65 more points, or say 30-19-5), we would finish with 104 points.
if we play .650 hockey (70 more points or say 34-18-2), we would finish with 109 points. (which SHOULD win the division and conference)
we are currently on a 113 point pace, .696 pace (the 05-06 team finished with a team record 110) (which would probably win the presidents trophy)

so this hot start really makes the outlook going forward for us look good.

Tampa might have an inside line to the President's Trophy due to their division. It's conceivable that they keep up a similar points pace to what they've done so far.