Observations XIX

[101st_fan]

I’ve got to be honest, I don’t get this reply at all. Yes, I understand that Jarnkrok was signed long term and I thought clearly stated that I didnt think signing Neal beyond this year was a good move. My opinion was that one year of Neal in a contract year was more valuble that Jarnkrok signed long term for a team that is all in. Either way they needed a 2C, what does this have to do with Duchene or Turris?

Clearing Neal's salary from the books was part of a larger plan to then sign Duchene which then morphed into Turris. If you don't get that Poile was willing to accept risk by leaving Neal unprotected, knowing he'd get picked up by Vegas, so that he could then make subsequent moves .... well, it is then difficult to have this discussion. The myopic losing Neal to keep Jarnkrok is not focused on the right areas. The move Poile made was to leave Neal exposed to then have room for Bonino, Duchene/Turris and in the process solidify the top nine for years to come ... with two legitimate threat top lines.

Poile was playing grandmaster level chess, the Jarnkrok/Neal comparison doesn't reach the level of checkers.

 

[glenngineer]

Trigg, you are correct, this is one dayum good team. Name one team that could beat us in a 7 game series and I honestly don't see anyone out there that can, especially when we get Ellis back. There is something special about this group. They are a team in the truest sense of the word.

I've been hard on Krok and while he still drives me crazy from time to time, maybe it wasn't just about salary/term on contracts and production, it could have been something in the room that caused Poile keeping Krok over Neal. If the sum of the parts is greater, then this makes sense at the end of the day.

We're a well built team from top to bottom and we're built for the long haul. Enjoy the ride people, that's all I can say.

 

[glenngineer]

If Craig Smith continues his current performance and Poile rolls into the playoffs with this lineup, the Jarnkrok decision might turn out to be the right call long term but I don't like it for two reasons:

1. I suspect that Poile will eventually use his 2018 1st rounder to add scoring help for this years playoffs when he was already sitting on James Neal. So really, I think it comes down to 1 year of James Neal playing for his next contract + keeping the 2018 1st rounder >> 5 years of Calle Jarnkrok

2. Jarnkrok is a decent little player but he has nothing to do with why the Preds are cup contenders for the foreseeable future. 2 million a year might not seem like a big deal now but paying that kind of money to a bottom six player is exactly the type of contract that's going to become an issue as some of the other guys need bigger paydays. His spot in the lineup would ideally be filled by guys on ELCs 2 or 3 years from now.

I understand that he didn't know he was going to land Bonino, Turris and Tolvanen at the time of the decision and hopefully this doesn't come off too much like I'm bashing Poile's because overall. It's a minor sticking point in an otherwise amazing 3 or 4 year run of hitting on almost every decision he's made. I just thought this one was a miss at the time and still do.

I don't think the decision was based on salary, I think it was based upon the room and Neal just wasn't a fit.

I remember Poile saying something that he and Neal both agreed it was time for him to move on and that's why he got exposed. I wish I could remember where I saw this but he may not have been a guy that the team wanted or needed around from a team standpoint. He's a great sniper but if that's all he brought to the team, maybe it was the right move letting him go.

 

[NSH615]

If Craig Smith continues his current performance and Poile rolls into the playoffs with this lineup, the Jarnkrok decision might turn out to be the right call long term but I don't like it for two reasons:

1. I suspect that Poile will eventually use his 2018 1st rounder to add scoring help for this years playoffs when he was already sitting on James Neal. So really, I think it comes down to 1 year of James Neal playing for his next contract + keeping the 2018 1st rounder >> 5 years of Calle Jarnkrok

2. Jarnkrok is a decent little player but he has nothing to do with why the Preds are cup contenders for the foreseeable future. 2 million a year might not seem like a big deal now but paying that kind of money to a bottom six player is exactly the type of contract that's going to become an issue as some of the other guys need bigger paydays. His spot in the lineup would ideally be filled by guys on ELCs 2 or 3 years from now.

I understand that he didn't know he was going to land Bonino, Turris and Tolvanen at the time of the decision and hopefully this doesn't come off too much like I'm bashing Poile's because overall. It's a minor sticking point in an otherwise amazing 3 or 4 year run of hitting on almost every decision he's made. I just thought this one was a miss at the time and still do.

1) With the current structure, why would we add anyone? At this point adding someone will likely have an ill effect on the roster. Remember 2014-2015? While that team wasn't as good as this one, it was leading the league for most of the year. We traded for Franson and Santorelli in February and the team fell apart.

2) With the cap rising significantly next year and likely the year after, why would maybe 2M for an established player kill this team? If anything PK's deal would have just as big of an impact. Also remember that Rinne's 7M is coming off the books soon and he won't get that on his next deal. And after next year we will have 2.8M cleared off the books from buy outs that are still hanging around.

 

[drwpreds]

So we're in a hot streak and that means this team will still be hot till the end? That there are no problems?

Who is saying that? I certainly don't think that.

 

[Lateralous]

Clearing Neal's salary from the books was part of a larger plan to then sign Duchene which then morphed into Turris. If you don't get that Poile was willing to accept risk by leaving Neal unprotected, knowing he'd get picked up by Vegas, so that he could then make subsequent moves .... well, it is then difficult to have this discussion. The myopic losing Neal to keep Jarnkrok is not focused on the right areas. The move Poile made was to leave Neal exposed to then have room for Bonino, Duchene/Turris and in the process solidify the top nine for years to come ... with two legitimate threat top lines.

Poile was playing grandmaster level chess, the Jarnkrok/Neal comparison doesn't reach the level of checkers.

If this was the case, why was Poile supposedly negotiating so hard with McPhee to keep Neal for this year? It's not like he was treating this as a straight cap dump to make room for Bonino/Duchene. Again, Poile has been a step ahead of almost every GM out there but I think you're giving him way too much credit calling this particular move grandmaster chess vs checkers.

 

[King Weber]

Starting to look like Fleury could be in net for Vegas tomorrow.

 

[Lateralous]

1) With the current structure, why would we add anyone? At this point adding someone will likely have an ill effect on the roster. Remember 2014-2015? While that team wasn't as good as this one, it was leading the league for most of the year. We traded for Franson and Santorelli in February and the team fell apart.

I don't particularly messing with the chemistry of a team in march either which is why it would have been nice to have Neal on the roster from the beginning. Given the way Craig Smith has been playing, maybe he won't make an acquisition, which make this all irrelevant but at the time of the Turris trade it seemed like most of the comments about Poile refusing to give up the first to Sakic was to save it for a deadline acquisition.

I acknowledge that the Predators along with the Lightning are the two most well built teams in the league and because of the shrewdness of each GM, they both look like they have long windows to contend. Given the 3 million salary difference for this season between Neal and Jarnkrok, I don't see it blocking the other moves and think it was a mistake as it relates to this years team, albeit a minor one.

 

[NSH615]

I don't particularly messing with the chemistry of a team in march either which is why it would have been nice to have Neal on the roster from the beginning. Given the way Craig Smith has been playing, maybe he won't make an acquisition, which make this all irrelevant but at the time of the Turris trade it seemed like most of the comments about Poile refusing to give up the first to Sakic was to save it for a deadline acquisition.

I acknowledge that the Predators along with the Lightning are the two most well built teams in the league and because of the shrewdness of each GM, they both look like they have long windows to contend. Given the 3 million salary difference for this season between Neal and Jarnkrok, I don't see it blocking the other moves and think it was a mistake as it relates to this years team, albeit a minor one.

Poile directly said in his press conference that he kept his first in the event he needed it come trade deadline. But as this roster currently sits, I'd say it's pretty darn close to how we end the season. The only differences would be AHL re-assignments. Gaudreau and someone else will have to be demoted. I just don't see any potential trades that would actually improve the team.

 

[NSH615]

If this was the case, why was Poile supposedly negotiating so hard with McPhee to keep Neal for this year? It's not like he was treating this as a straight cap dump to make room for Bonino/Duchene. Again, Poile has been a step ahead of almost every GM out there but I think you're giving him way too much credit calling this particular move grandmaster chess vs checkers.

The negotiations were if he protected Neal and not losing Jarnkrok not the other way around. I am almost certain (no facts to back this up now, just a hunch) at this point that Forsberg asked Poile to keep Jarnkrok. Those two are joined at the hip, they even signed 6 year deals at the same time.

 

[Preds Partisan]

Starting to look like Fleury could be in net for Vegas tomorrow.

I just read he won't play until Saturday at the earliest. I wish he was playing his first game back against the Preds after almost two months off or whatever it's been.

 

[PredsV82]

If this was the case, why was Poile supposedly negotiating so hard with McPhee to keep Neal for this year? It's not like he was treating this as a straight cap dump to make room for Bonino/Duchene. Again, Poile has been a step ahead of almost every GM out there but I think you're giving him way too much credit calling this particular move grandmaster chess vs checkers.

Because if he could keep Neal and instead give up picks/prospects he would then have the ability to flip Neal and get assets in return instead of nothing.

 

[Pred303]

love the warm glow when your team is on a 13-2-1 streak. won't last forever, because without a doubt there will be trying times ahead there always are. at times the offense will slump. the defense will slump. goaltending will slump.

but for now we can simply sit back and enjoy how things are going. savor it. i know i am.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

love the warm glow when your team is on a 13-2-1 streak. won't last forever, because without a doubt there will be trying times ahead there always are. at times the offense will slump. the defense will slump. goaltending will slump.

but for now we can simply sit back and enjoy how things are going. savor it. i know i am.

And we have so many days to enjoy it too!!!

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Put me down as a "Wanted to keep Neal" guy. I know he's primarily a sniper and doesn't have a well-rounded game but we've had very few Sniper's over the years and I hated to lose one. That said, this controversy could still end well. I believe Vegas will fall out of the playoff picture in February. They will move Neal. If we want him, we can pick him up for a pic. Problem is, he'd be a 3rd liner. No way you mess with the first 2 lines. So, unless there's an injury, we won't be fishing for a Top 6 forward, imo.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I don't know about the whole losing Neal to make room for Duchene or Turris. More like losing Neal allowed Poile the luxury of adding Emelin and, of course, allowed him to hang onto Jarnkrok. If Duchene/Turris was a serious option and Neal was still on the roster, Emelin never would've been added. Jarnkrok at 2 million + Emelin at 2.98 = 4.98, Neal's cap hit is 5. Plus the Preds still have 2.5 million in cap space and never even put Ellis on LTIR. Anyway, even though Emelin has been pretty disappointing while forced into a role on the 2nd pairing, it seems like everything has worked out just fine so far, so who cares either way I guess.

 

[NSH615]

I don't know about the whole losing Neal to make room for Duchene or Turris. More like losing Neal allowed Poile the luxury of adding Emelin and, of course, allowed him to hang onto Jarnkrok. If Duchene/Turris was a serious option and Neal was still on the roster, Emelin never would've been added. Jarnkrok at 2 million + Emelin at 2.98 = 4.98, Neal's cap hit is 5. Plus the Preds still have 2.5 million in cap space and never even put Ellis on LTIR. Anyway, even though Emelin has been pretty disappointing while forced into a role on the 2nd pairing, it seems like everything has worked out just fine so far, so who cares either way I guess.

Emelin had nothing to do with Neal. Poile said earlier this week that Ellis going down for half the year was the reason for getting Emelin.

This is a good listen. Poile interviewed at the start.

Episode 42 - Laidlaw and Allen Hockey Report

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I don't think the decision was based on salary, I think it was based upon the room and Neal just wasn't a fit.

I remember Poile saying something that he and Neal both agreed it was time for him to move on and that's why he got exposed.

That's not true. Poile said he didn't want to lose Neal and that Neal was upset when he heard he would be exposed and subsequently chosen. Poile even said that Neal saw Nashville as a long term home, perhaps the last stop in his career. You might be thinking of Colin Wilson, Poile did say he sat down with Wilson and they both decided it was time for him to move on.

Emelin had nothing to do with Neal. Poile said earlier this week that Ellis going down for half the year was the sole reason for getting Emelin.

Okay? I'm sure that's probably true, losing Ellis very likely was the reason for adding a D-man. What does that have to do with anything that I said?

Losing Neal opened the cap space to acquire Emelin. If the cap space wasn't opened by Neal leaving, I'm guessing Poile would've acquired someone cheaper, or maybe tried to cut cap somewhere else. That is assuming that he was always trying to leave open a good bit of space to acquire a center without sending salary back.

Poile tried very hard to keep Neal according to all of the insiders and in the end, the cost was just too high. So saying that Neal was let go purposely to create cap space for a center just doesn't really hold up to me.

 

[NSH615]

Okay? I'm sure that's probably true, losing Ellis very likely was the reason for adding a D-man. What does that have to do with anything that I said?

Losing Neal opened the cap space to acquire Emelin. If the cap space wasn't opened by Neal leaving, I'm guessing Poile would've acquired someone cheaper, or maybe tried to cut cap somewhere else. That is assuming that he was always trying to leave open a good bit of space to acquire a center without sending salary back.

We had the cap space regardless. Losing Neal gave us the cap space to 1) re-sign Johansen and 2) acquire Turris.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

We had the cap space regardless. Losing Neal gave us the cap space to 1) re-sign Johansen and 2) acquire Turris.

So they had the cap space for Emelin regardless (3 million cap hit), but losing Neal allowed the Preds to acquire Turris (3.5 million cap hit)? What exactly are you trying to argue? That's the same thing I said, only you swapped around the names...

Turris is a much more important addition than Emelin. If Turris was actually on the table and Neal was still on the roster, like Poile ideally wanted, then Emelin likely wouldn't have been added, not Turris.

 

[MrJoshua]

Jesus, why are we still talking about Jarnkrok vs Neal? That was over months ago. The team is currently 18-7-3 and battling for top spot in a tough central division. The top line center is still day-to-day with an injury; why don't we talk about how long they can keep up this pace without Johansen?

Or if Fiala catching fire is a product of Turris, or maybe if his hot streak is one reason why Turris has looked so good with the team? Fiala is now tied for 5th on the team in points with 18, and only a single point back from being tied for third. Has he turned the corner into a consistent performer or are we seeing a long hot streak? Are you expecting to see a drop-off soon?

Speaking of Turris, he's almost a PPG since joining the team (and on an almost 72-point pace per 82 games played). He's seemed to be a 55-60 point player over the past few years in Ottawa with a 64-point peak in 2014-15. Do you think there's a cold streak coming to get him back in line with his career averages or does he have enough chemistry with the guys here to reach a new level?

We could talk about who we want to see on the third pair after Ellis returns (Emelin and Weber, I'm hoping).

8-1-1 in the last ten games. Legitimately the hottest team in the league over that stretch. LA is second hottest at 7-2-1 as far as I can tell.

Does it worry anyone that half of Forsberg's points have come on the power play? We're due a PP slump at some point. It can't stay this hot all season ... can it?

Where the hell has this version of Craig Smith been for the last couple of seasons, and will he be able to keep it up? What's your projection for his goal total at the end of the year? How different are your expectations for him now than they were at the beginning of the season?

 

[Scoresberg]

I think people are simply stating that Neal wouldn't have been in the team in the future. No cap space/room for him especially with Tolvanen coming.

That being said, didn't like the move back then and I haven't changed my mind.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I'm hoping for Tater and Emelin as the third pair. Need his physicality plus I think he's just as good as Weber offensively.

 

[MrJoshua]

I'm hoping for Tater and Emelin as the third pair. Need his physicality plus I think he's just as good as Weber offensively.

That's an interesting idea. Emelin as the stay-at-home guy would allow Bitetto to roam a little more. The guy has pretty good wheels for a defenseman. But that would mean one of them playing their off-side. Who would you shift to the right?

 

[nine_inch_fang]

That's an interesting idea. Emelin as the stay-at-home guy would allow Bitetto to roam a little more. The guy has pretty good wheels for a defenseman. But that would mean one of them playing their off-side. Who would you shift to the right?

Tater, he has better mobility. You're not going to see Weber streaking up ice with the puck weaving in and out of defenders. Not to mention the difference in their shots.

I was amazed that Irwin got the first game Weber was back but hopefully after Mondays game the coaching staff has realized how much better Tater is over Irwin.