Observations XIX

[LCPreds]

IIRC that was Pekka's vezina-caliber season

Was that the season he got injured due to a collision with Volchenkov?

 

[NSH615]

Was that the season he got injured due to a collision with Volchenkov?

Yes

 

[Armourboy]

I'd like to give some props to Sissons in this game. It's something that will never show up on the stats sheet, but on the Fiala PP goal he sees Fiala driving to the net and then moves as quickly as he can to screen Bishop right before Fiala shoots the puck. He did essentially the same thing on the Turris PPG as well. It was really nice to see, and that Watson and Jarnkrok shorty was the definition of putting in work.

 

[PredsV82]

If you aren't jazzed for this team right now then you must be some kind of Vulcan. Second of BTB against the most recent "hot" team in the league, backup goalie, on the road, and absolutely kicked the shiznit out of them in their own barn.

Suck it Spezza!

Suck it Raduturd!

Edit... its been a long time since we led the division... time to stomp on the gas and pull away from the pack...

 

[Armourboy]

I don't know, the way we've handled big leads this year we may not want to get too far ahead

 

[FossilFndr]

Wonder it FF thinks he is in some separate universe, line mates Jarnkrok and Aberg score, even Mcleod scores and he does not even get a SOG all night. (Twilight Zone music in background)

edit: before anyone comments I know FF was not on ice for 19's shorty. But he got a great view of the Aberg goal.

 

[NSH615]

Wonder it FF thinks he is in some separate universe, line mates Jarnkrok and Aberg score, even Mcleod scores and he does not even get a SOG all night. (Twilight Zone music in background)

oh but he had fun. His reaction to Klingberg on the high stick, Dallas not playing the puck, then it gets blown dead and the face off is right in front of the Dallas goal was priceless.

 

[101st_fan]

The play of the top three teams in the Central is simply unsustainable. Three of the top five teams in the league are from the Central right now, with all three of those Central teams having a game in hand on the Kings and the ability to extend/create a lead on our Pacific division foe.

 

[Montross]

If you aren't jazzed for this team right now then you must be some kind of Vulcan. Second of BTB against the most recent "hot" team in the league, backup goalie, on the road, and absolutely kicked the shiznit out of them in their own barn.

Suck it Spezza!

Suck it Raduturd!

Edit... its been a long time since we led the division... time to stomp on the gas and pull away from the pack...

IMO this is the best team we have had. I can see an argument being made for the Kariya-era teams (which I loved to watch), but get this team going with all the guys healthy and they can legit win the Cup. I am excited to see how they play once Joey, Ellis, and Hartnell are back.

 

[NSH615]

The play of the top three teams in the Central is simply unsustainable. Three of the top five teams in the league are from the Central right now, with all three of those Central teams having a game in hand on the Kings and the ability to extend/create a lead on our Pacific division foe.

Technically so is Tampa's play.

 

[101st_fan]

Technically so is Tampa's play.

Tampa doesn't have two other teams in their division within one point of them .. all on a 111-115 point pace for the season. Unless somebody else in the Atlantic gets hot, the Bolts can conceivably run away with that division and ride that to quite a points total.

The Central and Metropolitan divisions have some serious shaking out to do at the top ... we have three teams within a point with Dallas then sitting five points below third. The Metro has six teams within a four point spread at the top. There is no runaway divisional leader and that inter-division fighting will reflect in the final standings.

 

[David Singleton]

Very, very interesting article from Tyler Dellow on The Athletic about line usage. Here's the original article that includes an explanation of the charts, and here's the appendix that includes Nashville's breakdown.

The Athletic is a pay site, but well worth your time even if they don't have a lot of articles totally focused on the Predators at this time.

 

[Pred303]

need to enjoy being in first place in the central and west today, because thanks to the schedule it certainly won't last long. us without a game until friday and only that one game in a 7 day span. and STL with 4 games and WPG with 3 games in that same span.

still looks good though.

 

[Pred303]

always dread this western canadian swing. EDM, CGY, VAN.

 

[NSH615]

always dread this western canadian swing. EDM, CGY, VAN.

Me too, but probably for other reasons. I hate these late games probably more than you hate early games.

 

[Pred303]

Honestly, we didn't play that well last night. Giving up 21 shots in the second period, yet outscoring them 4-0, lol, few things show the unpredictable nature of hockey more than that.

..Saros was excellent stopping that first shot
..the defense was excellnt clearing the many rebounds he left.
..that 4 shot barrage he stopped in the third was fantastic though.
..cann't beleive that they first waived off the mccleod goal.
..fiala. the kid can sure shoot the puck.
..still hard to believe forsberg didn't even have a shot on net. maybe splitting him and arvy is the right thing, but maybe it's not.
..turris. he has sure helped make that second PP unit dangerous. in fact right now they are our number 1 unit in truth.
..we got outhit, beat in the dot, and outshot badly in each period. hockey is a strange game.
..what we didn't do, was turn the puck over in high danger areas and we prevented odd man rushes. the two things that give up the most goals.
..maybe this wakes aberg up. maybe not, but it cann't hurt.
..i admit, i was still a little nervous when they cut it to 5-1 lol.
..that hit from hamhuis on Josi was an obvious, dangerous boarding.
..you always worry in this type of game that some key guy will get hurt. was glad to see weber/bitetto/mcleod/watson/gaudreau get so many third period minutes.
..if you had told me before the game forsberg, smith, arvidsson, nor any of our defensemen would score, i wouldn't have been confident lol.

you cann't help but like this team.

 

[Pred303]

makes me laugh that our team 'advanced stats' are bad. enough to drive most stat geeks crazy, lol.

examples;
1) we only have 9 of our 23 players with a positive corsi for %
2) we only have 9 of our 23 players with a positive fenwick for %
3) we have team negative corsi and fenwick
4) 15 of our 23 players have a PDO over 100 (which supposedly measures 'luck'). (team overall at 101.9)
5) as a team we have many more defensive zone starts than offensive zone starts
6) we have now been outshot in 21 of our 28 games.
7) our shooting percentage as a team is at 10.7% which is the highest in the league.
8) we have 11 guys shooting over 10%, a very high number.

advanced stat wise, we are sort of an outlier. so doubters will doubt.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I've seen lots of talk about the Preds advanced stats not being too good this year and many, myself included, suspected that it was due, at least in part, to building so many leads so quickly and going into turtle mode. Here are the numbers in score related situations:

When tied:

Corsi = 53.7% (3rd in the league)
SCF (Scoring chances for) % = 52.9% (6th)

Trailing:

Corsi = 57.35 (10th)
SCF% = 56.21 (12th)

Leading:

Corsi = 41.60 (23rd)
SCF% = 38.4 (30th)

Preds have also allowed the most goals in the league, by far, when playing with a lead. Extremely impressive when tied, good when trailing, abysmal when leading. Preds would definitely benefit from a bit of a change in philosophy as it relates to playing with a lead.

(Note on the post above, even strength PDO is 100.28 according to the sites I check, good for exactly 15th in the league. Where did you see it at 101.9?) Nevermind, saw you said overall just now, I usually ignore PDO on the PP and PK.

Speaking of special teams, Preds are 2nd in PP% and 6th in PK, but they've taken so many penalties that they are actually only +11 (2 of which are shorthanded goals) on special teams. Preds are 2nd last in the league in penalty differential, having taken 23 more minor penalties than they've drawn.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

great insight guys.

 

[drwpreds]

I've seen lots of talk about the Preds advanced stats not being too good this year and many, myself included, suspected that it was due, at least in part, to building so many leads so quickly and going into turtle mode. Here are the numbers in score related situations:

When tied:

Corsi = 53.7% (3rd in the league)
SCF (Scoring chances for) % = 52.9% (6th)

Trailing:

Corsi = 57.35 (10th)
SCF% = 56.21 (12th)

Leading:

Corsi = 41.60 (23rd)
SCF% = 38.4 (30th)

Preds have also allowed the most goals in the league, by far, when playing with a lead. Extremely impressive when tied, good when trailing, abysmal when leading. Preds would definitely benefit from a bit of a change in philosophy as it relates to playing with a lead.

(Note on the post above, even strength PDO is 100.28 according to the sites I check, good for exactly 15th in the league. Where did you see it at 101.9?)

What is interesting is that I think I saw a stat that we are either first or second in the league in amount of time played with the lead. And since we don't have good numbers when leading, I guess is why some sites like moneypuck still today have us at a ridiculous #20 in their power rankings.

Also interesting in that this year is pretty much the opposite of last year, when we were barely a .500 team the first half of the season despite great advanced stats.

One of the most mind-boggling stats that we have right now is that during this 13-2-1 stretch we have a third period goal differential of MINUS 12. Which means we are +29 during that stretch in the first and second periods. It is crazy that we have those kinds of third period numbers during a stretch where we have won 13 of the 16 games. But it just points out that we have been playing with a lead (or tied) for the majority of that streak, and it definitely making our advanced stats look very misleading.

I am not concerned about it- I don't think this is a case of a team just doing it with smoke and mirrors and due for a regression.

 

[drwpreds]

..i admit, i was still a little nervous when they cut it to 5-1 lol.
.

The one thing I did not want to happen was for them to get a quick goal to start the third- and when they did just 1 minute in, it is ridiculous how nervous I was for the next few minutes. I was just saying over and over "run clock run".

Had they scored a second goal quickly, I would have probably had to turn it off......

 

[Mortiest Morty]

7) our shooting percentage as a team is at 10.7% which is the highest in the league.

Preds are actually 6th in the league in overall shooting% at 10.71%. Islanders are first at 11.73%, then the Lightning at 11.45%. Preds are 14th overall in both 5-on-5 and overall even strength (including 4-on-4 and 3-on-3) SH%. The Preds overall SH% is skewed by their incredibly successful PP.

Unrelated random thought: I also think that the insane number of times that the Preds have been shorthanded is a major influence on their poor advanced stats. It often gives the other team momentum, whether they score on the PP or not and throws the Preds lines off for a bit.

 

[Pred303]

yeah our goals for/against by period are super strange;

1st;
20 for (28th)
14 against (1st)...(last night they were talking about us having the best save % in the first in league, this shows that)

2nd;
44 for (1st by a large margin, 7 more than the next team)
25 against (tied for 9th fewest)
this gives us the largest goal differential by far of any team

3rd;
24 for (tied for 20th)
38 against (most in the league)

considering last year we had a league best 101 for, 69 against in the 2nd it does make one scratch your head a little as to why the second period. (and a negative first and postive 3rd differential)

 

[NSH615]

NASHVILLE PREDATORS 2017 STANLEY CUP FINAL LIMITED EDITION BOBBLEHEAD UNVEILED

Nashville Predators 2017 Stanley Cup Final Limited Edition Bobblehead Unveiled

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

These advanced stats do not adjust well for situations. Teams play less aggressively when they have big leads. We have a lot of big leads. We dump the puck instead of carrying it in because it's situationally the right thing to do. We give up more shots because the other team is selling out. When games are close, we're a good possession team.

Btw, I'll take our "build a big lead and then give some back in the 3rd" strategy all day long over nip-and-tuck games. It's better to have a big lead and give some back late, than to never have a big lead at all. Sounds poetic, doesn't it.