Nikolaj Ehlers Part III

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by wpgsilver, Oct 25, 2016.

  1. DashingDane

    DashingDane Registered User

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    I think Ehlers has proved very capable of playing up and down the lineup. If I remember correctly ESW produced even better than the current CSW. IMO the issue becomes noticeable when him and Laine are together because it's both of their weaknesses. You can't have two players sitting back when you don't have the puck.
     
  2. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    As an offensive catalyst, yep. I don't disagree. Just ruminating on what would make him a more effective player no matter which line he were placed on - he's got the speed and quickness to be a real pest/gnat in board battles, in addition to the other offensive talents he has.
     
  3. DashingDane

    DashingDane Registered User

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    I think they would have to pair him with strong forecheckers...

    I'd actually like to see him with Lowry and Armia. Hopefully they would be able to keep up with his speed. We have seen him play well with any combo of Frenchie, Nickels and Wheels. They can match his speed. With Connors forechecking and speed he would probably work as well.

    Really I think I just don't like him with Laine because their weaknesses are to similar. Ehlers obviously needs to work on his checking but I think we are kidding ourselves if we think he will suddenly turn into a Frenchie type player.

    If you have watched a lot of European hockey you will notice that forwards don't really forecheck the defenders like they do over here. They are much more passive. Chevey mentioned it briefly when taking about Niko in his latest interview (around 8:45). Cheveldayoff pleased with discipline, defence, during first stretch - Article - TSN
     
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  4. bisonbutt

    bisonbutt Listen Linda...listen....

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    First-Line Left Wingers

    All situations range: 42 points to 87 points
    Even strength range: 33 points to 59 points from Habyseyesontheprize 2015 if anyone curious. I'm sure there must be a more updated version somewhere.....

    But based on this, Ehlers in 2017, is still producing in away as to finish like a first line winger by the end of this season. As of today he has 21 points in 28 games. 12 overall in points for wingers on the left side.
    Size issues ???
    Not playing well???
    Slump????
    He's playing just fine. I'd say he's one of the most driven players on the ice not named Scheifele or Wheeler and he's only 21.

    Ehlers is rounding out to be a 200ft player but there seems to be an expectation that the kid walk on water at 21, and no there isn't a size issue, he fights for the puck just fine for the cavemen fans.
     
  5. MrBoJangelz71

    MrBoJangelz71 Registered User

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    ...he likes groovy haircuts.
     
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  6. MrBoJangelz71

    MrBoJangelz71 Registered User

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    Ehlers has an insanely bright future, but he has a few things to work on. His speed could make him a tenacious forechecker. Like Connor is showing, you don’t need to be physical on the forecheck. An active stick, solid body positioning and speed is all the requirements, which Ehlers has an abundance of.
     
  7. Saintb

    Saintb Registered User

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    Maybe Armia is an exception because he is a very good fore checker.
     
  8. csk

    csk Registered User

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    It's taken Armia a long time to reinvent his game though. He didn't play that way 4-5 years ago
     
  9. DashingDane

    DashingDane Registered User

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    Agree! Armia is an interesting case. Was drafted as a skill guy but got into the league because of his defensive stick. I have no idea why he isn’t being used on the pk...

    I think there is plenty of European players that are great forecheckers in the NHL but that’s not what got Ehlers into the league so he will have to learn that part of the game. Already think he is a lot better defensively compared to the last two seasons. He cost some head scratchers in his rookie season :laugh:
     
  10. ImGoingNucks

    ImGoingNucks JETS JETS JETS

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    Didnt mean to make it seem like Ehlers has fallen off a cliff.

    I just dont like the toi distribution at all.

    And maybe some games, when the 1st pp has made a few pp goals, and the lead is comfortable.
    Let the 2nd unit start the pp.

    Ehlers will be fine im sure of it, but im also sure he has lost confindece, it is clear as day to see, the reason for that is unsure, a mix of his at times bad plays (He is hard in himself) and lack of toi which creates very little symbiosis on the 2nd line and makes them frustrated and make even more stupid plays.
     
  11. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Didn't I just demonstrate that there's not much difference in the 5v5 time? :dunno:

    I can't see them not running PP1 first while it remains hot.

    Is it? It's not clear to me. Scoring can be streaky.

    The TOI of the 2nd line is similar to the 1st line, so I'm not sure how this creates very little symbiosis. Should their 5v5 time be higher than the 1st line to compensate for PP1 and the PK?
     
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  12. scelaton

    scelaton Registered User

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    The TOI problem stems from too few minutes in a game and too many deserving players.
    If you give the 4th line 8 minutes of 5x5--something many have been advocating for years--and subtract 10 minutes of PP and PK, that leaves 42 minutes of 5x5 time for the top 3 lines. If you give our very effective first line 17 minutes, that leaves 25 minutes for our second and third lines combined.
    Here is a list of players I would like to see play more:
    Ehlers
    Laine
    Perreault
    Armia
    Little
    Everyone has their favorite (mine is Armia), but the fact of the matter is that we have a lot of talent and are winning in part because it is distributed across all 4 lines.
     
  13. kelsier

    kelsier Registered User

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    The TOI distribution is a major problem. I've despised it from the very beginning. Nikolaj's season couldn't have started much better, but then he just got demotion to 2nd line, lost all that extra time on the ice and has been in a slump ever since with occasional goals here and there. It's actually quite saddening to see how little on ice chemistry he has with Laine while they're the best friends in real life. Ehlers is a pure goal scorer and that is the biggest problem between the two. He can skate around with the puck forever opening all kinds of passing lanes but instead of passing he just skates ahead and shoots, which is very predictable for a goalkeeper. Also if he doesn't get to a shooting position that means someone has knocked him down on the ice. It's the same thing in most 2 on 1 rushes, the chances for him to set his team mate up for a cross ice "empty-netter" are slim and we've seen that this season a few times already. He could use that speed to create space and be creative. Quite frankly I'm not sure why this hasn't been coached out of him already. Moving the puck and using your team mates are key elements in the NHL, even if you happen to be a fast skater. That is one of the biggest weaknesses he has, but the good thing is that it's fixable. He just needs to keep his eyes and mind open even at the full speed.
     
  14. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    There's really not that much difference 5v5. Maybe a minute or so on average, which is a shift or two. See my post earlier in this thread.
     
  15. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

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    Every time someone brings up the topic of this imbalance of TOI I take a look and compare the Jets to other teams, and all teams have a remarkably similar distribution of ice time. Sticking with just the forwards, star players with #1 PP duty are in the 20 minute range then you see the top 6 all at 16+ and then a gradual distribution through the lineup to the 10 minute range, with 1 or 2 fringe guys below that. With an improved 4th line the Jets are actually distributing ice time more evenly than in past seasons.
     
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  16. kelsier

    kelsier Registered User

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    Are you frigging kidding me? If you didn't post here so often I'd have to wonder if you were even watching the games. Even based on the table of EV ice time you posted earlier we are talking about 2-3 minutes/game, not one minute nor "just a couple of shifts".

    Prior to the game against the Sens (where Laine actually played more minutes than guys in the first line due to the game practically being over before 3rd period) I was paying a close eye on Laine's TOI and comparing it with Connor's, cause they both play in the 1st PP and neither plays PK. From maybe 5 or 10 or so games' span Connor was consistently playing 2-3 minutes more per game than Laine. That is significant difference. Now again if you compare the two, Laine and Connor from the game vs the Wings you have Laine 15:23 and Connor 18:42, which makes it over 3+ mins difference. Ehlers played 12:48 mins in that game by the way. I don't keep count on how many shifts each line averages, but they must have been awful long shifts from the 1st line for the variation being that large. Of course Ehlers probably beats both Little and Laine in total EV TOI since he actually was part of the first line.
     
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  17. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Nope. Take a look at Ehlers 5v5 TOI. He's the player we're discussing in this thread. You're discussing Laine, who is not the subject of this thread - we have a couple of threads dedicated to that topic.

    It's best to stick to critiquing posts.
     
  18. ImGoingNucks

    ImGoingNucks JETS JETS JETS

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    Well isnt that the avg over the whole season?

    Incl. when Ehlers played the 1st line, and KC not playing all games? If so, then no it doesnt show the recent trend. If I am mistaken and its only recent games, maybe the last 3-4 games have colored me blind.

    Yup I think other than goalscoring he is making stupid plays that he didnt even make as a rookie.. but thats just me.
     
  19. ImGoingNucks

    ImGoingNucks JETS JETS JETS

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    Well I agree and disagree, I actually see him as more of a playmaker all his hockey since jr. except the present season shows that. his lack of confidence and his frustration imo is making him more selfish, making him cheat on offence and force non plays...

    That however should be coached out of him.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
  20. kelsier

    kelsier Registered User

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    Erm, no. Unless you are suggesting Ehlers currently plays more minutes than Laine? Think you fell off the charts here straight off the gates. I suggest you go back and have a closer look at what you quoted. I clearly pointed out to the severely decreased ice time with Ehlers AFTER getting demoted to the second line. Now neither Ehlers nor Laine plays PK and while Laine plays more PP, I think Ehlers has gotten slightly more 4vs4 ice time. I would still think Laine spending more time on the ice. So yes, that 2-3 minutes/game directly applies to Ehlers as much as it applies to Laine. I was using Connor as an example here since after all, we are talking about their EV TOI (where Laine and Ehlers happen to play in the same line). One doesn't really even need to check up from statistics to see that 1st line is getting clearly far more minutes than the second line. Got no clue where your coming with this "shift or two more.." while pointing at a table that has absolutely no bearing on Ehler's ice time today.

    It may be best to forget about the past and actually try find some data that applies to what's happening currently. That is, if you're aiming to debate it anyway.
     
  21. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Why don't you provide the TOI data to backup your point, kelsier ? I'll take a look at it later when I can dig up the data, but to this point of the year, Ehlers (the topic of this thread) has put in just under a minute per game less TOI 5v5 on average than Connor, which equals a shift or two per game.

    And of course I'm fine with debating the point. I'm even fine with conceding the point, if you provide the data. I don't mind being educated by those that are willing or have the interest in doing some work - many very good posters here have contributed to my personal knowledge of NHL hockey, and I appreciate that.

    Edit: I'm compiling TOI for them now - Ehlers TOI has been lower than his normal for the last 3 games, to speak to your point. I must say: I hate all that all my favorite stat sites have gone down over the last 2-3 years - this info is hard to compile now. Have to finish my own site at some point.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
  22. adammlis

    adammlis Registered User

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    Of course Schief and Wheeler do. Show me a team where the first line doesn't play significantly more.
     
  23. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Yep. Connor vs. Ehlers is more apples to apples.
     
  24. DashingDane

    DashingDane Registered User

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    From just skimming over his game logs it looks like your stats are correct (don't know why it wouldn't be). Looks like his toi (all situations) has dropped with about 1-1.5 min since being moved to the 2nd line.

    Edit: his toi has been down even more the last 4-5 games which is probably why I noticed it... But a lot of pk's and not great individual performances would account for that.
     
  25. adammlis

    adammlis Registered User

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    they have decided to play Connor first line. They are not going to constantly switch up who is on the Wheeler Schief line so its equal.
     

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