NHL's return to Winnipeg certain says analyst

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LadyJet26

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jamiebez said:
That's actually pretty weak reasoning, since it's going to be a weak drawing team that moves, anyway. We're not talking about relocating the Habs or the Red Wings, here :)

What's the difference to the Rangers, for example, if they have Florida (as an example ONLY, Panthers fans) coming in to MSG as opposed to Winnipeg? Either way, they're not a draw unless they're a very good team, and if they are, they'll draw on the road no matter where they call home.

I think it's more so the southern states that don't know where Winnipeg is... sadly to me that doesn't make any sense because there's retired Canadians in Florida :dunno:
 

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MooseHunter said:
What exactly makes it Winterpeg right now? It was +14 C today.
Their so senile they think it's Winter. :sarcasm:

The thing about the new CBA making it possible for a team to survive in the Peg is it also helps a distressed team survive thereby lowering the chances of any movement.

The only chance is someone with enough cash to poach a shaky franchise and have their heart set on putting it in Manitoba.
 

Gnashville

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MooseHunter said:
No one was mentioning Nashville as the possible team moving... Washington, Carolina are the ones being talked about more so.

Winnipeg is and will always be a hockeytown. Fans will always be there.
read the article Nashville is mentioed
Bloom predicts Pittsburgh, Florida, Nashville, Atlanta, Anaheim, even Washington, are all headed for trouble.
 

Resolute

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MooseHunter said:
I believe David Asper (billionaire and owner of CanWest Global) has shown interest in bringing back the NHL, but I'm not sure on this one.

And the economy isn't bad in Winnipeg, far from it. And population has nothing to do with whether the NHL is viable or not. MTS Centre was ok'd by the league before building began, it's enough, especially with the 700 000 people in Winnipeg. Plus not only would people from Winnipeg come to the games, but so would people from Anola, East & West St. Paul (richest areas outside of Winnipeg), Stonewall, Steinbach, the list goes on and on.

I havent heard anything about Asper showing an interest in bringing the NHL back to Winnipeg, and knowing some of the people on some of the forums I post on, it would have been a HUGE topic if he had. That's not to say he hasnt though. The possibility is there, I just do not know how reasonable it is right now.

The 700,000 population figue for Winnipeg is the Metro, and includes E and W St. Paul, and many of the list that goes on and on.

Population does have a lot to do with Winnipeg's viability. Population watches games on TV, listens on the radio, buys merchandise. These are all things where Winnipeg is disadvantaged.
 

Bad Santa

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The US Pacific Northwest is the huge obvious hole in the NHL map. Every bit as obvious as the big hole in the NFL map where LA used to be. Portland or Seattle will get the next NHL franchise that comes on the market. There are arguments that can be made why either Portland or Seattle should or shouldn't be targeted, but there is no argument that any other potential city can make that stands up to the fact the entire US Pacific NW is without a team. If the Canucks have ever attempted to try to make that franchise a regional draw, they have done a very poor job communicating that fact.
 

RedSoxNation

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This quote from an unnamed 'banker' in the Globe and Mail

“You know what, Winnipeg, as crazy as it sounds,†the banker said when asked to name a couple of likely places for problem franchises to land. “At least everybody there is a hockey fan. Sure, the arena is small [by NHL standards], but if you could fill it every night, who cares?â€
 

Gnashville

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RedSoxNation said:
"Sure, the arena is small [by NHL standards], but if you could fill it every night, who cares?â€
80% of 15k = 12k how is that better than Carolina, Buffalo, Washington, Nashville, Atlanta?
 

Resolute

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While the currency exchange is an issue for Winnipeg, your argument there is far too simplistic to be useful.

First, the loonie is around 85 cents US right now, not 80 cents.

Second, all of the teams you listed, except for Atlanta, are below the league average for ticket prices. If Winnipeg were to charge the same as Calgary, Edmonton or Ottawa, their actual average price, in US dollars, would come out higher than Buffalo, Carolina, Phoenix, Washington, etc.

Third, 15,000 people spend a lot more on concessions than 12,000 "announced" people.

Of course, when the loonie is doing fairly well, as it is currently, it can actually act as a boon for these teams. Calgary and Edmonton, for example, have gone from the bottom of the league in terms of average ticket price right to the median without actually raising ticket prices one cent.

If the loonie were to ever tank though, a new Jets would be gone.
 

Gnashville

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Resolute said:
If the loonie were to ever tank though, a new Jets would be gone.
That's the problem why would any owner pay millions to move his team to a city where he is going to only have a few more (maybe even less long term) butts in seats and have a risky situation with currency exchange. It is eaiser to do things to improve attendance in his current market(which is happening here in Nashville).
 

LadyJet26

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funny how the Canadian dollar is stronger then ever and it's not likely it'll go down anytime within the next few years. As long as the US keep acting like idiots politically, then we're fine :p:
 

Roughneck

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MooseHunter said:
Winnipeg's population DOES buy Jets merchandise... come have a look in River City Sports and ask them how much they sell.

There are also a very considerable amount of ex-Jets fans strewn across Saskatchewan and now into Alberta. They had alot mroe support than people think, just the dollar and such killed them. If the new NHL works like it is supposed to, then a team in Winnipeg should survive and be able to thrive this time around.
 

Gnashville

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MooseHunter said:
funny how the Canadian dollar is stronger then ever and it's not likely it'll go down anytime within the next few years. As long as the US keep acting like idiots politically, then we're fine :p:
Are you willing to guarantee an owner the Canadian dollar won't devalue in 10 years? I think Winnipeg could get an expansion team, but for an owner to pay his current city to move there is unlikely. Why move to a city where you could potentaly sell out the build every night and still lose more money than in city you are currently located?
 

polarslam

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SOMETIMES the inner workings of the NHL thought process, especially in the context of the "old" league, can be hilarious.
For example, last week we broached the topic of attendance numbers early in the post-apocalyptic era, specifically the soft initial sales in non-traditional U.S. markets that are bound to struggle even in this age of economic enlightenment.

After all, improving hockey to a sports fan in Georgia is akin to finding a better way to try selling Big Macs to vegetarians. No sooner had we raised the prospect of southern U.S. teams papering houses than we received this e-mail from Free Press reader Brian Kates, who reported: "I'm in Atlanta on holidays for the week. I went to last night's Atlanta-Montreal game and I can assure you that the attendance was nowhere near the 18,600 listed in today's (Atlanta) paper. The arena was at most three-quarters full. And that was on a 2-for-1 Wednesday!"

Two-for-one Wednesday? Can we get an amen for Half-Price Tuesday? Or how about Five-Dollar Thursday?

Whatever. It's becoming clear that despite insistence from NHL headquarters during the lockout that the new CBA would work for all 30 franchises, it's going to take a miracle or Sidney Crosby for that wishful thinking to come true.

So it figures that other media are beginning to see the underwriting on the wall, too. For example, in Saturday's Toronto Globe and Mail, there was a serious article entitled, "U.S. attendance woes could be blessing for Hamilton, Winnipeg." Essentially, the writer quoted an anonymous banking executive in the U.S. who had brokered several sales involving NHL teams. He ventured that both Canadian cities could be potential markets for franchises that fail in the next couple of seasons.

And this is where it gets funny. In particular, when the banker cites the possible return of the NHL to Winnipeg, "as crazy as it sounds."

Why? "At least everybody there is a hockey fan," the banker reasoned. "Sure, the arena is small (by NHL standards), but if you fill it every night, who cares?"

Now I understand the banker's sentiment, and it's nice to get a shout out to the 'Peg on the topic of the dearly departed National Hockey League. But on the face of it, given the history of the NHL's doomed attempt to broaden its U.S. base over the last tragic decade, the logic only underscores the insanity of the strategy in the first place.

I guess the tall foreheads at NHL headquarters didn't think it sounded crazy when someone blurted, "I know -- we'll put a team in Carolina!"

This is the same curious rationale that had executives with business degrees (that hopefully weren't printed off the Internet) looking investors straight in their beady eyes and telling them, "Sure, NHL hockey is going to be gangbusters in Phoenix." Look, no one's saying here that Winnipeg either deserves or can afford an NHL franchise. Even in the new salary-cap environment, the dollars it takes to operate a competitive club still make this city a long shot at best. That's just the hard reality.

Still, sometimes it is fascinating to step back and bask in the mind-boggling dearth of simple common sense when it comes to how the folks who run and finance the NHL think about expanding and nurturing their product.

After about 10 years and hundreds of millions in lost capital, they just may be getting their heads around what can only be described in their ranks as a revolutionary idea: Selling hockey in cities where there are -- wait for it -- dyed-in-the-woollen-underwear hockey fans.

You know, that just might work.

As crazy as it sounds.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/subscriber/sports/topstory/story/3101269p-3597499c.html
 

Resolute

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Gnashville said:
Are you willing to guarantee an owner the Canadian dollar won't devalue in 10 years? I think Winnipeg could get an expansion team, but for an owner to pay his current city to move there is unlikely. Why move to a city where you could potentaly sell out the build every night and still lose more money than in city you are currently located?

It is not that the loonie was devalued previously, it has always been fairly consistant against European currencies. The problem in the late 90s/early 00's was that the US dollar was significantly overvalued.

The real question isnt whether he Canadian dollar will devalue, but whether that American dollar will become overvalued again? Very few analysts expect that this will happen in the near to mid term.
 

Resolute

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Gnashville said:
After reading that I am beginning to understand why so many Canadians are so cynical of Southern teams, too bad it's full of half-truths and blantant insults. :shakehead

One only has to look at the attendance charts to see why most people are skeptical of many southern teams. Rumors of papering the buildings have followed several for quite some time - including Nashville, who was reported to have had a couple sponsors buy out remaining tickets to a couple of their late season home games to claim sellouts.
 

kdb209

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Resolute said:
One only has to look at the attendance charts to see why most people are skeptical of many southern teams. Rumors of papering the buildings have followed several for quite some time - including Nashville, who was reported to have had a couple sponsors buy out remaining tickets to a couple of their late season home games to claim sellouts.

OK. Lets look at attendance charts:

Winnipeg Jets 1979-80 40 527,722 13,193
Winnipeg Jets 1980-81 40 523,975 13,099
Winnipeg Jets 1981-82 40 528,634 13,216
Winnipeg Jets 1982-83 40 511,644 12,791
Winnipeg Jets 1983-84 40 482,167 12,054
Winnipeg Jets 1984-85 40 510,633 12,766
Winnipeg Jets 1985-86 40 547,778 13,694
Winnipeg Jets 1986-87 40 543,703 13,593
Winnipeg Jets 1987-88 40 507,066 12,677
Winnipeg Jets 1988-89 40 512,635 12,816
Winnipeg Jets 1989-90 40 524,016 13,100
Winnipeg Jets 1990-91 40 517,246 12,931
Winnipeg Jets 1991-92 40 519,625 12,991
Winnipeg Jets 1992-93 41 555,809 13,556
Winnipeg Jets 1993-94 41 545,198 13,298
Winnipeg Jets 1994-95 DATA NOT AVAILABLE
Winnipeg Jets 1995-96 DATA NOT AVAILABLE

OK, so maybe the 15K seats in the MTS Centre are a few K too many.
 

jamiebez

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Apr 5, 2005
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kdb209 said:
OK, so maybe the 15K seats in the MTS Centre are a few K too many.

1. Winnipeg Arena was a 50-year old arena with obstructed view seats, limited access for the handicapped and elderly and almost no suites.

2. NHL average attendance for this period was around 14,000-14,500

3. The Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Flames and Minnesota North Stars all had much worse attendance than this, and all got teams back.

Attendance is only one small part of the story, folks. REVENUE is what will cause teams to succeed or fail.
 
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