NHL to Seattle Volume XV - Moving the Expansion Needle [Upd: 9/24 Arena Reno. Unanimously Approved]

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Mightygoose

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Yeah, thanks for the link on that, I am aware of general attendance numbers & that about half the League does average less than 5K per game however, I'm not sure what the AHL's requirements might be in terms of minimum capacities. My thinking, and correct me if I'm wrong in thinking 5500 sub-standard... but what their minimums might be? Would 5500 be acceptable?

Yardman arena in Belleville was renovated for the Sens farm team last year and it increased capacity to 4400 so it must have been fine with AHL's powers that be.

Granted for team being used for the Sens prospects it may be just fine as it's about 250km from Ottawa. Much closer than Boise and Seattle if that is the plan.
 

Killion

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Yardman arena in Belleville was renovated for the Sens farm team last year and it increased capacity to 4400 so it must have been fine with AHL's powers that be.

Granted for team being used for the Sens prospects it may be just fine as it's about 250km from Ottawa. Much closer than Boise and Seattle if that is the plan.

Thats interesting. I had no idea it was that small.... I also saw an article awhile ago that Gatineau (Hull - right across from Ottawa) is getting a new arena, home for the QMJHL Olympique, and that'll be a 4000 capacity building. Yardman has to be the smallest in the League.... how is that even viable as would be the case with Boise? Surely you would want a minimum 7500-8000 capacity despite the Leagues average attendance being in the 4-5K range no?
 

royals119

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That arena in Boise only seats 5500 or so, app 40 corporate suites whereas the Ford Idaho Center has a capacity of app 10,500, so double, and I'd think that would be more attractive to the AHL. 5500 good for the ECHL, but thats definitely sub-par for the AHL.
Utica: 5700
Binghamton:4910
Tuscon: 6521
Rockford: 5895

I don't think they will go to Boise, but if they want to the arena won't stop them.
There seem to be two driving forces in locating AHL teams. 1 - get them close to the NHL team so players and team personnel can drive to a game and back on the same day. 2 - get them close to their opponents, so the AHL team spends less time traveling and more time practicing.
Boise fulfills neither of these. It is too far from Seattle, so a flight is required to get back and forth in a reasonable time, and it is far from all the divisional opponents, so every away game would be a flight. I think they are more likely to locate either very close to Seattle, or in California (Long Beach, Fresno, Sacramento). If they find a spot close to Seattle, the people who signed up for NHL season tickets who don't get seats might sign up for the AHL team, so they have a built in market.
 

snovalleyhockeyfan

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Utica: 5700
Binghamton:4910
Tuscon: 6521
Rockford: 5895

I don't think they will go to Boise, but if they want to the arena won't stop them.
There seem to be two driving forces in locating AHL teams. 1 - get them close to the NHL team so players and team personnel can drive to a game and back on the same day. 2 - get them close to their opponents, so the AHL team spends less time traveling and more time practicing.
Boise fulfills neither of these. It is too far from Seattle, so a flight is required to get back and forth in a reasonable time, and it is far from all the divisional opponents, so every away game would be a flight. I think they are more likely to locate either very close to Seattle, or in California (Long Beach, Fresno, Sacramento). If they find a spot close to Seattle, the people who signed up for NHL season tickets who don't get seats might sign up for the AHL team, so they have a built in market.

The flight from Seattle to Boise and back is direct on Horizon and only runs 90 minutes. In terms of the other issue - closeness to AHL teams, one can argue that with the league now being more spread out, there's a lot more flying in the league now than there used to be. I mean everything out CA and back will be by plane for the east coast AHL teams. Colorado will also require a flight to all of their road games too.

In terms of available local venues, Everett or Tacoma would be best. Spokane is a five hour drive on I-90 over a mountain pass that during the winter months isn't entirely reliable in terms of keeping the damn thing open, and during the next two summers will have major construction on it for a good 100 mile stretch of it across the mountains and then there's Portland as well. Where would you suggest an AHL team might put up roots for a Seattle NHL franchise?
 

snovalleyhockeyfan

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Down the street at Chris Hansen's SoDo arena... :sarcasm:

Yeah, right, if you can get that past this Council.....Speaking of which, everyone should pay attention to the current discussion (OT) going on in Seattle with the council over this proposed employee head tax on businesses. Me thinks that this might potentially impact the final approvals for the Key redevelopment if the vote and any fallout from it results in any recall campaigns against councilmembers which frankly considering some of the debate we've been seeing on the ground here over the past several days might be on the horizon for one or two of them IMO if this passes.....
 

gstommylee

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Yeah, right, if you can get that past this Council.....Speaking of which, everyone should pay attention to the current discussion (OT) going on in Seattle with the council over this proposed employee head tax on businesses. Me thinks that this might potentially impact the final approvals for the Key redevelopment if the vote and any fallout from it results in any recall campaigns against councilmembers which frankly considering some of the debate we've been seeing on the ground here over the past several days might be on the horizon for one or two of them IMO if this passes.....

Good grief. No it won't. Don't make an issue where it doesn't exist. The head tax issue is a 100% separate problem that has NOTHING to do with the arena. That being voted to approve or being rejected has Zero impact on the arena. Again don't make an issue that doesn't exist.

They aren't going to say no to a 1.3b dollar investment just cause of the head tax issue. They aren't going to say no to a NHL team coming. Everything is being point to final approval as early as September 17th.
 

snovalleyhockeyfan

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Tommy, what I am talking about is that if you do have recalls that are sought against councilmembers if they vote yes on this thing and the public wants to do something about it and force a recall, those issues might hold up the process a little bit because they're not going to want to approve big deals like the Key if there's a chance that can be used against them in a recall vote. I'm thinking specifically of Sawant and O'Brien here but other councilors could also come in those crosshairs, too. You and I both want this thing to go through but you have to also be aware of the tea leaves and how those tea leaves could, and I stress could, impact our situation. IIRC, won't the council have to approve the final EIS before they move dirt down there? That's probably not until October at the earliest that'd happen, and if you have any recall elections, we might be in the middle of that by then.
 
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gstommylee

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Tommy, what I am talking about is that if you do have recalls that are sought against councilmembers if they vote yes on this thing and the public wants to do something about it and force a recall, those issues might hold up the process a little bit because they're not going to want to approve big deals like the Key if there's a chance that can be used against them in a recall vote. I'm thinking specifically of Sawant and O'Brien here but other councilors could also come in those crosshairs, too. You and I both want this thing to go through but you have to also be aware of the tea leaves and how those tea leaves could, and I stress could, impact our situation. IIRC, won't the council have to approve the final EIS before they move dirt down there? That's probably not until October at the earliest that'd happen, and if you have any recall elections, we might be in the middle of that by then.

Sigh. Its not going to hold up any process. Everyone knows the arena needs to be done and open before 2020-21 NHL season. The urgency to get it done is there. It's going to get done no matter what other issue is going on.
 

CHRDANHUTCH

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That arena in Boise only seats 5500 or so, app 40 corporate suites whereas the Ford Idaho Center has a capacity of app 10,500, so double, and I'd think that would be more attractive to the AHL. 5500 good for the ECHL, but thats definitely sub-par for the AHL.
4000-4500 is the base level attendance-wise, K, depending on the individual lease structure and who pays what... see Portland in 2013-14 AND THAT SCENARIO PLAYING OUT while Cross was renovated, K, 4500 was set based off success or not as a factor, not entirely, AND THEN THE SCENARIO THAT PLAYED itself out IN 2015/16....
 

Killion

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4000-4500 is the base level attendance-wise, K, depending on the individual lease structure and who pays what... see Portland in 2013-14 AND THAT SCENARIO PLAYING OUT while Cross was renovated, K, 4500 was set based off success or not as a factor, not entirely, AND THEN THE SCENARIO THAT PLAYED itself out IN 2015/16....

Interesting. Seems to be quite separation between the top end in terms of draw at the AHL level & the average or mid range. Some seemingly extremely successful, others obviously not even close but then thats fine too as you dont want a lot of empty inventory, empty seats. Too much building. The AHL & the old IHL Central League etc interesting that way. Diversity. The buildings having their own unique character as was the case with the NHL back in the day.
 

royals119

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The flight from Seattle to Boise and back is direct on Horizon and only runs 90 minutes. In terms of the other issue - closeness to AHL teams, one can argue that with the league now being more spread out, there's a lot more flying in the league now than there used to be. I mean everything out CA and back will be by plane for the east coast AHL teams. Colorado will also require a flight to all of their road games too.

In terms of available local venues, Everett or Tacoma would be best. Spokane is a five hour drive on I-90 over a mountain pass that during the winter months isn't entirely reliable in terms of keeping the damn thing open, and during the next two summers will have major construction on it for a good 100 mile stretch of it across the mountains and then there's Portland as well. Where would you suggest an AHL team might put up roots for a Seattle NHL franchise?

A 90 minute flight is still an impediment to same day callups. You have to get to the airport 90 minutes before, and travel to and from airports, plus the timing of the flight might align, or there might not be seats available. Sometimes the stars will align and they will call for a player at 10:00 AM and have him in the building by 5:00, but not always. If it is a 90 minute drive, you can always get the player in time (assuming both teams are home that day).

East coast teams don't play California teams in the AHL. Maybe an occasional trip once a season, but generally not. Colorado has their team close by, so they gave up the proximity of opponents for the proximity of affiliates. Most teams are choosing one of those two, either close to the NHL team, or close to AHL opponents - both is ideal. Boise is neither.
 

gstommylee

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A 90 minute flight is still an impediment to same day callups. You have to get to the airport 90 minutes before, and travel to and from airports, plus the timing of the flight might align, or there might not be seats available. Sometimes the stars will align and they will call for a player at 10:00 AM and have him in the building by 5:00, but not always. If it is a 90 minute drive, you can always get the player in time (assuming both teams are home that day).

East coast teams don't play California teams in the AHL. Maybe an occasional trip once a season, but generally not. Colorado has their team close by, so they gave up the proximity of opponents for the proximity of affiliates. Most teams are choosing one of those two, either close to the NHL team, or close to AHL opponents - both is ideal. Boise is neither.

Disagree. A AHL in any other location will basically kill that local hockey team and force them to relocate.

Any other location close to seattle invoves kicking the current team out of that arena which will upset the local fans. Boise involves promoting a current club from ECHL to AHL.

Portland will never root for the AHL team.
 

Killion

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Portland will never root for the AHL team.

Yeah, Portland is most definitely out. The last thing they want is another minor-pro second tier team, someones left overs let alone Seattles. And absolutely it would displace the very popular WHL Major Junior team. Cause harm. Portland is a case of Go Big, namely NHL or Just Dont Bother, the NHL complimenting the WHL club as is the case with Seattle.
 

royals119

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Disagree. A AHL in any other location will basically kill that local hockey team and force them to relocate.

Any other location close to seattle invoves kicking the current team out of that arena which will upset the local fans. Boise involves promoting a current club from ECHL to AHL.

Portland will never root for the AHL team.
I'm not sure how it is that much different to promote a WHL team to the AHL vs promoting an ECHL team to the AHL. Some fans will embrace the change, some won't, in either case. I don't think the NHL team is worried about that either way.

For their first year Seattle will likely just place their few spare players with another team, either sharing one team like Vegas did, or spreading them around to multiple teams if they can't find a partner. After that, someone (either Seattle or another NHL team that doesn't currently own their AHL team) will buy the expansion AHL franchise and locate it either very close to the NHL team, or in a cluster of other AHL teams. The AHL would love for that to be a western team so it fits neatly in their division alignment. If not, they will come up with some crazy alignment to compensate.
 

gstommylee

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I'm not sure how it is that much different to promote a WHL team to the AHL vs promoting an ECHL team to the AHL. Some fans will embrace the change, some won't, in either case. I don't think the NHL team is worried about that either way.

For their first year Seattle will likely just place their few spare players with another team, either sharing one team like Vegas did, or spreading them around to multiple teams if they can't find a partner. After that, someone (either Seattle or another NHL team that doesn't currently own their AHL team) will buy the expansion AHL franchise and locate it either very close to the NHL team, or in a cluster of other AHL teams. The AHL would love for that to be a western team so it fits neatly in their division alignment. If not, they will come up with some crazy alignment to compensate.

It would be stupid to push out a WHL just for a AHL team. The alignment for AHL already is made up and it works with a Boise ID team. The central division teams are mostly central related teams. There is a very large gap in the pacific northwest with no AHL team.

Colorado just promoted their ECHL to a AHL team.
 

CHRDANHUTCH

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I'm not sure how it is that much different to promote a WHL team to the AHL vs promoting an ECHL team to the AHL. Some fans will embrace the change, some won't, in either case. I don't think the NHL team is worried about that either way.

For their first year Seattle will likely just place their few spare players with another team, either sharing one team like Vegas did, or spreading them around to multiple teams if they can't find a partner. After that, someone (either Seattle or another NHL team that doesn't currently own their AHL team) will buy the expansion AHL franchise and locate it either very close to the NHL team, or in a cluster of other AHL teams. The AHL would love for that to be a western team so it fits neatly in their division alignment. If not, they will come up with some crazy alignment to compensate.
royals:

you're forgetting, what's the bylaw in the AHL, there can be no active franchise without an affiliation signed and in place prior to a team even being approved, that's why Colorado ceded their contract with San Antonio and sent it to St. Louis, in return promoting the Eagles up as soon as their Kelly Cup defense either ends or the season does outright ....

take Reading as an example, if the Flyers didn't commit to the Royals as an affiliate and they wanted to be promoted, it would have to be another NHL Team interested in doing so... since Philadelphia already has Lehigh Valley, independent of whether the Flyers operate or own and operate, the Flyers still operate the arena that Lehigh Valley plays in... This isn't the ECHL where current teams can operate separately from affiliations or "independent". The AHL dumped that provision over 20 years ago, after Baltimore and Binghamton failed miserably in a competitive standpoint.... remember when Vegas signed with Chicago, they got all personnel decisions, even though Chicago aka Rosemont aka Don Levin have operated a successful franchise, but remember, the AHL informed the Wolves fifteen + years ago, they wouldn't be admitted if there was no NHL Affiliation, hence Atlanta (Winnipeg), which is likely why Orlando went into hiatus after the dissolution of the IHL, and it took 12 years to resurrect the franchise as it is presently....

the era of NHL Teams buying their affiliates at the AHL Level has ended.... with the creation of the Pacific and Colorado's contract.... there's not an alignment needed to compensate as you put it, now, that San Antonio and Texas aka Cedar Park/Austin WERE realigned, finally, out of the Pacific.... I also do not see Seattle or the AHL Allowing them to split an affiliation in the traditional sense of multiple affiliations as you've seen previously, not to the extent of an NHL team being threatened with revocation of its AHL Affiliate as Edmonton did with that ridiculous 5 way affiliation while electing to keep its franchise dormant... hence the 5 year deal replacing the Blazers in OKC, with the Barons, before the acquisition and transfer to Bakersfield....

St. Louis and Vegas didn't share a team this year.... and answer me this, why did the Blues assign G Jordan Binnington to Providence on a loan, mind you... so the idea of the Blues sharing a team, the Blues were free to make any deal they wanted to.
 

gstommylee

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per Seattle city council meeting on the arena, the NHL has approved the arena design process for the key arena redesign plan

Also OVG is suppose to announce labor peace agreement with several labor unions next week.

edit

The Seattle design comission has their presentation up from last week's meeting
 
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royals119

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It would be stupid to push out a WHL just for a AHL team.
Why? I'm assuming you have a bias toward the WHL and see it as "better" hockey than the ECHL, but it you have an actual reason I'd love to hear it.
The alignment for AHL already is made up and it works with a Boise ID team. The central division teams are mostly central related teams.
That's true, but it also works for a team in about 7 other states, including a few that are a lot closer to the other pacific division teams. Also, this is the first time in recent memory that the AHL has had divisions with such nice geographic alignment. They've had some pretty weird alignments in the past, so it wouldn't be a stretch to go back to an unbalanced setup, if that is what best serves the NHL. That is the driving force in what happens with the AHL after all.
There is a very large gap in the pacific northwest with no AHL team.
So what? The AHL doesn't have a TV contract, or any other reason to spread their teams out over a larger footprint, except if it serves an NHL teams desire to have their team close. Boise doesn't really do that. What Boise has is an arena, and a hockey fan base. While those are obviously necessary items for an AHL team, there are other cities that have that, plus other advantages.

Colorado just promoted their ECHL to a AHL team.
Yes, Colorado just kicked the ECHL Eagles out of their building, forcing the owners to fold that franchise, and replaced them with an AHL team. ;-)

royals: you're forgetting, what's the bylaw in the AHL, ....
I have not forgotten that. I made no suggestion that there would be an unaffiliated AHL team.

the era of NHL Teams buying their affiliates at the AHL Level has ended.... with the creation of the Pacific and Colorado's contract....
I don't know where you got that idea. While NHL teams won't be buying AHL teams at the same pace as the last few years, mainly because the own most of them now, I don't see any evidence that says a future Seattle team, or some other current team, won't decide to buy an existing team, or an expansion team.

there's not an alignment needed to compensate as you put it, now, that San Antonio and Texas aka Cedar Park/Austin WERE realigned, finally, out of the Pacific....
No, there is no reason to realign currently. However, if Seattle decides they want to go with the Vancouver/Utica model and locate their team in a city near a current cluster of AHL teams, then the AHL will accommodate them with a re-alignment to compensate for that imbalance. I'm sure they don't want to, but in the end they will not force an NHL team to put their affiliate somewhere they don't want it just to have a nice geographic alignment.

St. Louis and Vegas didn't share a team this year.... and answer me this, why did the Blues assign G Jordan Binnington to Providence on a loan, mind you... so the idea of the Blues sharing a team, the Blues were free to make any deal they wanted to.
OK, I stand corrected. Vegas was affiliated with Chicago, and the Blues didn't have an affiliation. They were the ones who spread their players out over more than one team. The point is the same, in the first year of Seattle's existence there may well be a team (either Seattle of whoever loses in "musical affiliation swap") who shares an AHL team with someone else, or splits their players among more than one team. Seattle might not have their affiliation settled in their first year, or if they do, it might result in someone else having a year with no primary affiliate.
 

PCSPounder

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My thought is Seattle acquires Idaho Steelheads as their affiliates and promotes them to AHL.

AHL could use a team in the pacific northwest.

The caveats involved in going to Boise:

(1) Seattle just made a crap-ton of $$ on deposits. Is Boise going to compensate in some way? Oh frack no.

(2) The ONLY reason to go to Boise is to solidify a TV market, and knowing Boise, they won't help anyway. They'll want a measure of autonomy on player assignments. It's been the same with their baseball affiliation and the old D-League/G-League affiliation... Boise is kind of an island and being Seattle's little kid makes no sense to them. They've always prioritized winning over development... I can't see them and Seattle making a suitable arrangement for that and for media and likely a couple other things.

(3) The question someone else posed about maybe siting the team in Nampa instead... non-starter. The arena is in a rodeo alignment, basketball is sometimes played there using 2/3rds of the house, and I'm fairly certain that ice isn't a priority for that group.

I'm looking at Everett only filling half their house for WHL championship series games this week. While there's more than one reason for that, every other US-based team does better. It makes so much more sense for Seattle to make their AHL arrangement there.
 
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snovalleyhockeyfan

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OT, but those of you who regularly follow Daniels on Twitter, :popcorn: would be in order right now if you haven't had a chance to look.

Speaking of which, Tommy, do you think this proposal would impact getting an NHL team here? I certainly would guess the answer is yes and they might use that to not award us a team in June......Thoughts?
 

gstommylee

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The caveats involved in going to Boise:

(1) Seattle just made a crap-ton of $$ on deposits. Is Boise going to compensate in some way? Oh frack no.

(2) The ONLY reason to go to Boise is to solidify a TV market, and knowing Boise, they won't help anyway. They'll want a measure of autonomy on player assignments. It's been the same with their baseball affiliation and the old D-League/G-League affiliation... Boise is kind of an island and being Seattle's little kid makes no sense to them. They've always prioritized winning over development... I can't see them and Seattle making a suitable arrangement for that and for media and likely a couple other things.

(3) The question someone else posed about maybe siting the team in Nampa instead... non-starter. The arena is in a rodeo alignment, basketball is sometimes played there using 2/3rds of the house, and I'm fairly certain that ice isn't a priority for that group.

I'm looking at Everett only filling half their house for WHL championship series games this week. While there's more than one reason for that, every other US-based team does better. It makes so much more sense for Seattle to make their AHL arrangement there.

So you kick out the silvertips for AHL absolutely not. That would be like putting the AHL in portland and kick out the winterhawks. Not going to happen.

The only option in the pacific northwest that doesn't involve kicking out a current team is promoting Idaho Steelheads to AHL
 
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