NHL 2017/18 Team Rankings

By willmma · Dec 4, 2017 · Updated Jan 3, 2018
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  1. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system.

    This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

    For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

    NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO games are considered ties.


    After 685 games played this season the rankings for Jan 16 2018 are:


    #TeamElo Score
    1Tampa Bay Lightning2868
    2Vegas Golden Knights2815
    3Winnipeg Jets2751
    4Nashville Predators2742
    5Boston Bruins2736
    6Philadelphia Flyers2648
    7Washington Capitals2597
    8San Jose Sharks2594
    9Minnesota Wild2592
    10St. Louis Blues2568
    11Colorado Avalanche2564
    12New Jersey Devils2562
    13Dallas Stars2536
    14Anaheim Ducks2535
    15Carolina Hurricanes2524
    16Chicago Blackhawks2518
    17Calgary Flames2515
    18Los Angeles Kings2490
    19Toronto Maple Leafs2459
    20New York Islanders2432
    21Detroit Red Wings2430
    22Vancouver Canucks2394
    23Pittsburgh Penguins2383
    24Florida Panthers2369
    25Ottawa Senators2364
    26Columbus Blue Jackets2356
    27New York Rangers2319
    28Edmonton Oilers2318
    29Montreal Canadiens2317
    30Buffalo Sabres2170
    31Arizona Coyotes1930

    DivisionAvg Score
    Central2610
    Metropolitan2477
    Pacific2448
    Atlantic2464

    ConferenceAvg Score
    Western2524
    Eastern2470


    I will try to update the rankings daily
    Cheers :thumbu:
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2018 at 10:11 AM
  2. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Unexpected GF% of 100%

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    How accurate has ELO been in the past as a predictor of future success? Not criticizing - legitimately curious.
     
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  3. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    This is a very interesting perspective. Thank you for doing this, it's appreciated.
     
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  4. Frosty415

    Frosty415 Stay Frosty

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    Cool list, nice to see Vegas high up there too
     
  5. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I checked a few years ago. Found it to be 50/50 :huh: Just as good as a coin flip.
     
  6. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Unexpected GF% of 100%

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    :laugh:

    Yeah from what I've read forward-looking predictive rankings are tough. I mean, ELO isn't supposed to be be definitive, just probabilistic, so maybe it does a decent job when you control for it, but there are so many potential confounding factors.
     
  7. DominicBoltsFan

    DominicBoltsFan My avatar = Bolts defense Sponsor

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    Interesting. I like the concept.
     
  8. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated.
     
  9. BrettHullsToe

    BrettHullsToe '99*

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    I wish the Stars were back in the Pacific - 3 of the top 4 teams being from the Central is tough.

    Speaking of which, is it too much extra work to add an average ELO per division and conference?
     
  10. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I updated the code to show Division and Conference averages. :thumbu:
     
  11. BrettHullsToe

    BrettHullsToe '99*

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    Awesome, thanks!
     
  12. KPower

    KPower Registered User

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    Buffalo too high.
     
  13. Mortivore

    Mortivore Registered User

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    Interesting to implement ELO. Mostly know it from chess, will be fun to see how the standings progress.
     
  14. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    lol
     
  15. DancesWithWookies

    DancesWithWookies Registered User

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    Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.
     
  16. MajorLeafsFan

    MajorLeafsFan Registered User

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    Good to know my two favorites are in the top 10
     
  17. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    This is pretty cool. Thanks for your hard work. :thumbu:
     
  18. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 6th
     
  19. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 7th
     
  20. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 8th
     
  21. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated Dec 11
     
  22. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    Willmma Can you supply a link to where you are updating the ELO for the NHL The link in the OP take me to Wikipedia but no update on NHL standings.

    Thanks
     
  23. Nizdizzle

    Nizdizzle Ignore List: 64

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    He is updating the standings in the first post of this thread.
     
  24. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    Thanks.
    My bad. I thought he was updating on a other site. It didn't occur to me that he was updating his OP. Should of checked. :)
     
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  25. The Green Unit

    The Green Unit Lost Cosmonaut

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    I also view Tampa, STL, LA and Nashville (in no particular order) as the best teams in the league. Interesting.
     

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