NHL 2017/18 Team Rankings

By willmma · Dec 4, 2017 · Updated Apr 9, 2018
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  1. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system.

    This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

    For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

    NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO games are considered ties.

    #TeamElo Score
    1Nashville Predators2693
    2Florida Panthers2666
    3Winnipeg Jets2647
    4Anaheim Ducks2612
    5Washington Capitals2606
    6Minnesota Wild2603
    7Toronto Maple Leafs2598
    8Boston Bruins2587
    9Columbus Blue Jackets2580
    10New Jersey Devils2572
    11Philadelphia Flyers2562
    12Tampa Bay Lightning2553
    13Pittsburgh Penguins2537
    14Los Angeles Kings2531
    15Colorado Avalanche2517
    16San Jose Sharks2514
    17Arizona Coyotes2505
    18Vegas Golden Knights2501
    19Dallas Stars2492
    20St. Louis Blues2457
    21Edmonton Oilers2424
    22Carolina Hurricanes2417
    23Vancouver Canucks2413
    24Calgary Flames2402
    25New York Islanders2398
    26Montreal Canadiens2387
    27Chicago Blackhawks2385
    28Detroit Red Wings2356
    29New York Rangers2355
    30Buffalo Sabres2342
    31Ottawa Senators2288

    DivisionAvg Score
    Central2542
    Metropolitan2503
    Pacific2487
    Atlantic2472

    ConferenceAvg Score
    Western2513
    Eastern2487

    Cheers :thumbu:
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2018
  2. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Unexpected GF% of 100%

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    How accurate has ELO been in the past as a predictor of future success? Not criticizing - legitimately curious.
     
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  3. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    This is a very interesting perspective. Thank you for doing this, it's appreciated.
     
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  4. Frosty415

    Frosty415 Stay Frosty

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    Cool list, nice to see Vegas high up there too
     
  5. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I checked a few years ago. Found it to be 50/50 :huh: Just as good as a coin flip.
     
  6. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Unexpected GF% of 100%

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    :laugh:

    Yeah from what I've read forward-looking predictive rankings are tough. I mean, ELO isn't supposed to be be definitive, just probabilistic, so maybe it does a decent job when you control for it, but there are so many potential confounding factors.
     
  7. DominicBoltsFan

    DominicBoltsFan SerGOATchev Sponsor

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    Interesting. I like the concept.
     
  8. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated.
     
  9. BrettHullsToe

    BrettHullsToe '99*

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    I wish the Stars were back in the Pacific - 3 of the top 4 teams being from the Central is tough.

    Speaking of which, is it too much extra work to add an average ELO per division and conference?
     
  10. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I updated the code to show Division and Conference averages. :thumbu:
     
  11. BrettHullsToe

    BrettHullsToe '99*

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    Awesome, thanks!
     
  12. KPower

    KPower Registered User

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    Buffalo too high.
     
  13. Mortivore

    Mortivore Registered User

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    Interesting to implement ELO. Mostly know it from chess, will be fun to see how the standings progress.
     
  14. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    lol
     
  15. DancesWithWookies

    DancesWithWookies Registered User

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    Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.
     
  16. MajorLeafsFan

    MajorLeafsFan Registered User

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    Good to know my two favorites are in the top 10
     
  17. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    This is pretty cool. Thanks for your hard work. :thumbu:
     
  18. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 6th
     
  19. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 7th
     
  20. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 8th
     
  21. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated Dec 11
     
  22. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    Willmma Can you supply a link to where you are updating the ELO for the NHL The link in the OP take me to Wikipedia but no update on NHL standings.

    Thanks
     
  23. Nizdizzle

    Nizdizzle Ignore List: 78

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    He is updating the standings in the first post of this thread.
     
  24. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    Thanks.
    My bad. I thought he was updating on a other site. It didn't occur to me that he was updating his OP. Should of checked. :)
     
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  25. The Green Unit

    The Green Unit Lost Cosmonaut

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    I also view Tampa, STL, LA and Nashville (in no particular order) as the best teams in the league. Interesting.
     

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