News and Notes XXII: Now With More Finnish!

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Boom Boom Apathy

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Would be interesting to see what happens if a team throws Skinner on a line with a clearly superior C like McDavid or Eichel. Could be blue-sky offensive breakout if he accepted offensive support from a player of that level. Could be ugly if he can’t break out of the tunnel vision.

That's a good point. Other than maybe Eric Staal (or Aho this past season), he's always been the top dog and the best offensive player on the team. Putting him on a line with a stud, which the Canes have never had, might make a huge difference.
 

tarheelhockey

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It reminds me a lot of Kessel in Toronto. Goal production from a winger simply can’t be the entire basis for a hockey team to win or lose games. Kessel was better than Skinner and it ended in the same kind of situation.

Couple years later, he’s a playoff hero and cornerstone in a dynasty. Still basically the same player and person. The difference for him was 100% in the makeup of the team, the way he was utilized and supported.

Skinner’s the same sort of story, though a lower caliber version of it. He could absolutely be part of a good balanced line. But we will not see that with him skating with Ryan/Rask/Stemp/PDG/young-Lindholm type players, and being told he needs to get his 30 to be successful. There are a whole bunch of factors in conflict with each other that supercede a likely positive outcome... from talent/chemistry imbalance, to line matching, to paycheck incentives, to human frustration, to media pressure, to now having developed a bunch of bad habits and being allowed to get away with them for too long.

Svechnikov and Necas give us somewhat of a light at the end of the tunnel for the depth/chemistry problem, but it’s probably too late now that the contract issue is in play. If the Kessel trade is any kind of preview, the value coming back for Skinner likely won’t be worth Skinner. Hopefully Aho and Svechnikov give us enough “pop” up front to drive an offense.
 

The Stranger

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Just for reference, here are Skinner's most common linemates based on 5v5 TOI with for the last 5 years.

13/14: 1: Elias Lindholm, 2: Eric Staal,
14/15: 1: Elias Lindholm, 2: Victor Rask
15/16: 1: Victor Rask, 2: PDG
16/17: 1: Victor Rask, 2: Lee Stempniak
17/18: 1: Derek Ryan, 2: Elias Lindholm

Where do you find most common linemates for recent seasons? Behindthenet.ca has the data, but only up to 2015/16.

Corsica has most common line data. Skinner's top two line combos from last season based on ES TOI were Ryan and Stempniak (167 min) and Ryan and Williams (159 min).

The next highest TOI combo was end of year line where he was paired with Lindholm and PDG (135 min). That line played well and I thought Skinner clearly benefited from a center with better strength...take up space and get him the puck closer to the net.

Skinner being largely paired with Ryan and Rask the past few years has clearly hurt his numbers.
 

My Special Purpose

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Skinner being largely paired with Ryan and Rask the past few years has clearly hurt his numbers.

Wait a sec. Revisionist history alert. Skinner was 37-26-63 in 79 games in 2016-17 (i.e. his best season since his rookie season) with a) Rask/Stempniak as most common linemates, and b) Bill Peters behind the bench. Aside from the power play, where Skinner only scored 19 goals in four seasons under Peters, I'm not sure we can complain about Skinner's usage.

After 8 NHL seasons (and Skinner has only missed 20 games the past five seasons combined, so his concussion/injury history is overblown as well), Skinner is who he is: an elite goal scorer who tries to do too much leading to bad decisions, has effort issues when not properly engaged, and a tendency to forget hockey is a 200-foot game. He's a good player with plenty left in the tank. But he's not worth $7 million a year for seven years, especially with the kind of young talent we have coming up that will eventually need to get paid. There's no need to rag on Jeff or make stuff up. He just doesn't fit with our future anymore.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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Where do you find most common linemates for recent seasons? Behindthenet.ca has the data, but only up to 2015/16.

I got this data from Naturalstattrick and you can get 5v5 TOI with and without vs. individual players (not a line combination like you listed.)

Jeff Skinner - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

According to Natural stat trick, the players I listed were the two for each season that Skinner spent the most TOI with. For instance in 17/18: Ryan 532 minutes; Lindholm 355 minutes.
 

What the Faulk

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It reminds me a lot of Kessel in Toronto. Goal production from a winger simply can’t be the entire basis for a hockey team to win or lose games. Kessel was better than Skinner and it ended in the same kind of situation.

Couple years later, he’s a playoff hero and cornerstone in a dynasty. Still basically the same player and person. The difference for him was 100% in the makeup of the team, the way he was utilized and supported.

Skinner’s the same sort of story, though a lower caliber version of it. He could absolutely be part of a good balanced line. But we will not see that with him skating with Ryan/Rask/Stemp/PDG/young-Lindholm type players, and being told he needs to get his 30 to be successful. There are a whole bunch of factors in conflict with each other that supercede a likely positive outcome... from talent/chemistry imbalance, to line matching, to paycheck incentives, to human frustration, to media pressure, to now having developed a bunch of bad habits and being allowed to get away with them for too long.

Svechnikov and Necas give us somewhat of a light at the end of the tunnel for the depth/chemistry problem, but it’s probably too late now that the contract issue is in play. If the Kessel trade is any kind of preview, the value coming back for Skinner likely won’t be worth Skinner. Hopefully Aho and Svechnikov give us enough “pop” up front to drive an offense.

Nearly total agreement here.
 

My Special Purpose

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Nearly total agreement here.

Yeah, me too. Also similar is the timing of the trade. Toronto wasn't going to win anything the past three seasons and paying Kessel all that money would have just been a waste. The trade expedited Toronto's rebuild and helped win Pittsburgh two Cups.

Keep in mind that Skinner *has* scored 140 goals the past five seasons (28 per season) even with those crappy linemates. That's good for 16th place in the NHL over that time period, and only five fewer than Kessel in 19 fewer games. Of course, Skinner is far-and-away the worst playmaker in the group -- and nowhere near Kessel's level -- and that minus-70 is just embarrassing.

upload_2018-6-16_13-3-22.png
 

What the Faulk

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Yeah, me too. Also similar is the timing of the trade. Toronto wasn't going to win anything the past three seasons and paying Kessel all that money would have just been a waste. The trade expedited Toronto's rebuild and helped win Pittsburgh two Cups.

Keep in mind that Skinner *has* scored 140 goals the past five seasons (28 per season) even with those crappy linemates. That's good for 16th place in the NHL over that time period, and only five fewer than Kessel in 19 fewer games. Of course, Skinner is far-and-away the worst playmaker in the group -- and nowhere near Kessel's level -- and that minus-70 is just embarrassing.

View attachment 125427

When you adjust for ice-time, he looks even better. His 5v5 rate is better than Ovechkin, and his all-situations rate is slightly lower than Taylor Hall. It's too bad he pretty much sucks at everything else, but he's an elite goal-scorer.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Sep 6, 2006
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Since he's entered the league, Skinner is tied for 10th in the NHL in ES goals scored. Guys he is ahead of? Crosby, Benn, Malkin, Toews, Neal, Pavelski, EStaal, Eberle, Wheeler, Marleau, Duchene, Kane, Carter, Couture, JVR, Hall, etc..

Now a few of those guys (Crosby and Malkin notably) have played less games due to injury, but durability is part of it.

There is no question he is an elite goal scorer and always has been. I too think Tarheel's post is a good summary of the situation. Skinner on a very good team that doesn't need him to be more than a sheltered goal scorer can be very effective.
 

The Stranger

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Wait a sec. Revisionist history alert. Skinner was 37-26-63 in 79 games in 2016-17 (i.e. his best season since his rookie season) with a) Rask/Stempniak as most common linemates, and b) Bill Peters behind the bench. Aside from the power play, where Skinner only scored 19 goals in four seasons under Peters, I'm not sure we can complain about Skinner's usage.

It's not revisionist history...and I'm not complaining about his usage. However, it is my opinion that his production/numbers have suffered from playing largely with low quality centers.

This is an opinion that I suspect many will disagree with as they have the opinion that it doesn't matter who Skinner is on the ice with...the "doesn't use his linemates, therefore doesn't matter who he's on the ice with" stance.
 

The Stranger

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vorbis

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if any of you decide you want to subscribe (and please don't feel pressured to do so on my account, I am willing to share snippets when I can if you need to spare the cash), it's worth poking around the internet for a day or two, get a search for it in your google history, because 50% off codes will start to pop up, and you can save thirty bucks or so on a yearly sub.
 

DaveG

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I’ve been meaning to sign up for them for a while now there’s always so many articles from them that I want to read but can’t. Add Canes coverage and I will easily be a subscriber.
Not just Canes, there's no dedicated coverage to anything NC which is surprising considering that they have San Diego, Buffalo, and all 3 of Cleveland, Cincy, and Columbus, and even Winnipeg, Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary as dedicated cities for coverage. You'd think that between 3 pro teams between Raleigh and Charlotte, 4 Power 5 schools, and a plethora of other FBS football and solid mid-majors in basketball we'd have some coverage for that.

Still, I subscribe because it's still by far the best coverage out there right now.
 

Svechhammer

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Jun 8, 2017
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Well, ESPN's best and brightest have logged their "Trades We'd Like to See" for 2018... Brace yourselves...
Emily Kaplan, national NHL reporter: Skinner for Lucic and a pick
The Canes may need help reaching the cap floor, so Lucic's contract isn't a problem. Lucic can provide leadership to a young group, and add some name value to an owner looking to sell tickets.
To make this more palatable for the Hurricanes, Edmonton would need to send over a draft pick as well (they have each of their first- and second-round picks for the next three seasons, and an extra third-rounder in 2019). Dundon should view draft picks as the ultimate currency. The Oilers should welcome Skinner -- offensively gifted, although defense was never a strength -- as a middle-six winger to provide scoring depth. I see this as a win-win.
Chris Peters, hockey prospects analyst: Faulk for Grubauer
For the Canes to move one of their captains -- even if they're getting their starting goalie -- there might have to be a sweetener in there,
(for full disclosure, that is the extent to which the Canes' needs were mentioned in that proposal.)

So to reiterate... ESPN would love for us to trade Skinner and Faulk for Lucic and a backup goalie. And we wonder why we're routinely bent over on the Trades forum here...
 

bleedgreen

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I saw that. Kaplan lost all respect from me in that one little blurb. Lucic has name value for putting fannies in the seats?!?

Worth trading Skinner for?!?

How do you get to write for ESPN with that level of knowledge?

There’s no win/win in there for the Canes ma’am.

“Dundon should view draft picks as the ultimate currency”......

So much wrong with that sentence. Not to mention Skinner and Lucic making about the same money giving us no assistance reaching the floor. Which we won’t have a problem doing anyways.
 

DaveG

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I did it, and it’s been pretty good. I don’t know if there’s anything truly unavailable eslewhere for free but it’s nice to have it all in one spot for sure.

Also, agreed on it would be nice to have some Canes coverage there.
Yep, sadly we're one of only 3 NHL teams in there without dedicated coverage, the other two being unsurprisingly Florida and Arizona
 

Anton Dubinchuk

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I saw that. Kaplan lost all respect from me in that one little blurb. Lucic has name value for putting fannies in the seats?!?

Worth trading Skinner for?!?

How do you get to write for ESPN with that level of knowledge?

There’s no win/win in there for the Canes ma’am.

“Dundon should view draft picks as the ultimate currency”......

So much wrong with that sentence. Not to mention Skinner and Lucic making about the same money giving us no assistance reaching the floor. Which we won’t have a problem doing anyways.

I listen to ESPN On Ice because I like Wyshynski (though the podcast is maybe my least favorite of the ones in my rotation).

Kaplan seems quite kind but I think it’s clear from that show she’s new to hockey. Especially compared to some of the other podcasts I listen to, she ends up saying a lot of things that just don’t follow from the questions being asked. Also several instances of not having a good feel for player reputation, saying things like “the defensive side of his game is underrated” for guys with overt defensive reputations, etc.

She does seem like a good writer and journalist, will give her a little bit to transition to the game (I don’t think she was on hockey at her previous job). But that Lucic thing was pretty out there...
 

ONO94

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Well, ESPN's best and brightest have logged their "Trades We'd Like to See" for 2018... Brace yourselves...
Emily Kaplan, national NHL reporter: Skinner for Lucic and a pick

Well she does mention that:

Edmonton would need to send over a draft pick as well (they have each of their first- and second-round picks for the next three seasons, and an extra third-rounder in 2019)

I would trade Skinner for Lucic and Edmonton's 1st and 2nd for the next 3 years. Oh wait...she said a pick....nevermind.
 
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