News and Notes Thread VIII: The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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tarheelhockey

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I'm going to float the theory that Rask won't look nearly as good against NHL competiton, our goalies suck not because it's preseason but because they actually suck, and this is about the level of competitiveness we can expect from this team in the regular season. Our defense is hot garbage and we don't have the forward depth to sustain long term top-6 injuries.
 

A Star is Burns

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I'm going to float the theory that Rask won't look nearly as good against NHL competiton, our goalies suck not because it's preseason but because they actually suck, and this is about the level of competitiveness we can expect from this team in the regular season. Our defense is hot garbage and we don't have the forward depth to sustain long term top-6 injuries.

So season's a goner for Connor? Quite a bleak outlook. I hope that isn't the case, but I wouldn't be surprised.
 

tarheelhockey

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So season's a goner for Connor? Quite a bleak outlook. I hope that isn't the case, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I've never felt this bleak going into a season. Having lost Jordan we can't even pretend that we have a competitive roster. Our playoff "hope" relies on both Eric Staal and Alex Semin rising up to lead the team with consistently dominant performances, combined with the continuation of career-best performances by Sekera and Khudobin over the course of a full season. And even that kind of perfect scenario would only be a 50/50 shot to overcome the severe lack of depth at both forward and defense.

I mean, for crying out loud... what if someone told us three months ago that we'd have Rask as our 2C, and both LaRose and Gleason on the roster? It's almost absurd how badly this team is constructed.
 

A Star is Burns

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Yeah, I agree. I still think sadly we end up too good to get a top three pick, but miss the playoffs. If we do miss again, I do hope it's spectacularly, get an amazing prospect and blow it up. Keep some of the good young pieces we have, load up on assets of all kinds, and build this team right. But to me, it's bleaker than that. Like I said, we'll miss again, but not spectacularly enough, and I'm starting to worry that Francis won't make good on this being the core's last chance because of the Jordan injury. I'm still going to root for the team to do well, and hope they do, but it's getting harder to believe in it.
 

Blueline Bomber

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The problem is that all the leeway JR had with the capspace seemed to disappear when Francis took over. Karmanos tightened the purse strings, so there was very little chance this team was going to be good in the first place.
 

Brock Ness Monster

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I'm going to float the theory that Rask won't look nearly as good against NHL competiton, our goalies suck not because it's preseason but because they actually suck, and this is about the level of competitiveness we can expect from this team in the regular season. Our defense is hot garbage and we don't have the forward depth to sustain long term top-6 injuries.

Maybe Rask won't play as well against better competition, but right now hes one of the only prospects that's playing noticeably well against preseason teams. Make of that what you will.
 

GoCanes2013

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Mueller is availalbe ($700,000) off waivers. Better than Nash or Rask at C? Better tha Rosey or other 3rd line projected guys at F?
 

tarheelhockey

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Yeah, I agree. I still think sadly we end up too good to get a top three pick, but miss the playoffs. If we do miss again, I do hope it's spectacularly, get an amazing prospect and blow it up.

At this point I'm really starting to wonder if it would make more sense to trade Eric than to keep him.

And by trade Eric, I don't mean as a rental. I mean right now, while we can still put a full-season price tag on him.

It would take a Hart-winning type of season for him to drag this carcass of a team into the playoffs. Does anyone actually see Eric Staal stepping up with a Hart-winning type of season? I sure as hell don't. But he still plays at a high enough level to fetch a serious, heavy duty trade return. Moving him would clear enough salary to give the entire organization some financial breathing room. And of course, it would make us an official lottery contender which is where this is all headed anyway.

And yes, I'm thinking specifically of the Leafs here. Imagine the price that organization would pay for a past-his-prime #1 center Ontario native. It would be enough to significantly change the next decade for this franchise.
 

Finnish Jerk Train

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At this point I'm really starting to wonder if it would make more sense to trade Eric than to keep him.

And by trade Eric, I don't mean as a rental. I mean right now, while we can still put a full-season price tag on him.

It would take a Hart-winning type of season for him to drag this carcass of a team into the playoffs. Does anyone actually see Eric Staal stepping up with a Hart-winning type of season? I sure as hell don't. But he still plays at a high enough level to fetch a serious, heavy duty trade return. Moving him would clear enough salary to give the entire organization some financial breathing room. And of course, it would make us an official lottery contender which is where this is all headed anyway.

And yes, I'm thinking specifically of the Leafs here. Imagine the price that organization would pay for a past-his-prime #1 center Ontario native. It would be enough to significantly change the next decade for this franchise.

stall for kadri, gardiner, and a 1st e4

In all seriousness, I'm not ready to call this team a dumpster fire, but I'm almost there. It doesn't seem unreasonable to think they can tread water until Jordan gets back, then pick up about 60-65% of available points. That would put them in the neighborhood of 95 points, which would be enough to get in. That's kind of my best case. Of course, with this team, there's so much that can go wrong that I'm not going to hold my breath.

Another season that's mediocre but not abominable seems most likely.
 

What the Faulk

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And, wasn't Columbus playing basically everyone last night? That's what Forslund said on 99.9 anyway...

Yeah, they pretty much were.

This is not an odd conversation when we're talking non-hypothetically about which of Rask or Nash will make the best top-6er for half our season.

A reminder that this team scored 91 points with a top six of Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, Erik Cole, Jussi Jokinen, Tuomo Ruutu, and Chad LaRose. And a worse defense. And worse goaltending. Yes, they were playing in the southeast, but they had a "winning" record against the Atlantic (9-7-4) and the West (10-6-2).
 

cptjeff

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For a little prospective, here's NHL.com's assessment of how we could get back to the playoffs:

CAROLINA HURRICANES

Last season: 36-35-11, 83 points, 10 points out of final wild-card spot in the East.

How it ended: The Hurricanes went 10-4-0 in January but 11-15-2 the rest of the way.

Offseason changes: After 20 years Jim Rutherford stepped down as general manager and was replaced by Ron Francis. In his first major decision Francis fired coach Kirk Muller and replaced him with Detroit Red Wings assistant coach Bill Peters. However, those were the only major changes. Manny Malhotra departed, but the team got grittier in its bottom-six forward group with the additions of Jay McClement and Brad Malone. Tim Gleason returned to add depth on defense.

Why they could get in: The Hurricanes certainly have the pieces for a playoff team in place, starting on the top line with Eric Staal centering Jiri Tlusty and Alexander Semin. All three players are healthy and expected to have bounce-back seasons. Jeff Skinner is coming off a career-best 33-goal season and promising Elias Lindholm is a year older and more mature. Losing Jordan Staal until January certainly hurts, but a healthy and motivated Cam Ward in goal should help any drop-off in offense. If Ward can get back to the top-flight goaltender he was a few seasons ago and the Hurricanes adapt well to Peters' puck-possession style, they should be in the hunt for a wild-card spot and a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

That's an independent assessment, not rose colored wishful thinking as I've been accused of, just because I haven't bought into the groupthink completely.

Our roster, on paper, isn't all that horrible. Lots of other teams would kill for the set of forwards we have, even with Staal gone. Yeah, we have problems at center right now, but very few teams have the firepower we do with Staal, Skinner, Semin, and potentially significant contributions from Tlusty and Lindholm. Look at Columbus- the best forward they can ice is what, Brandon Dubinsky? Look at Buffalo. Done laughing yet? Look at Florida. They're banking on Jussi Jokinen to be an impact forward, for chrissakes.

Our defense, while below average, isn't at the bottom of the league by any means. Even without Staal, the roster is okay. The question is if we can get it to perform. Muller failed at that. Will Peters be better? It's yet to be seen. Having Brindy behind the bench rather than as the eye in the sky will also have a big effect.

They key is getting the roster to play better, and implementing better systems. If we can do that, we'll be in position for a decent season. If we can't do that, than even the most talented roster isn't going to go anywhere.
 

Novacane

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New roster cuts. LaRose still up. This is totally happening. Will be on Eric's wing for the starting lineup next friday night
 

A Star is Burns

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But didn't pretty much this exact same team with Jordan get like 83 just last year in this actual division even with several teams blowing chunks early on? Seems more relevant. I hope that everyone else stays healthy, goalies perform well, and the remaining forwards carry us enough to at least stay in contention for a spot. But it will take a lot of things going right. Hopefully it happens. I believe in Bill Peters.
 

Unsustainable

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