Discussion in 'New Jersey Devils' started by StevenToddIves, Apr 9, 2018.
Mcleod+NJD 20181st to move up to 4/5 and grab boqvist - would you do it?
D'oh, and I forgot that San Jose's 2019 2nd rounder is already going to Buffalo in the Evander Kane trade.
Great analysis on the Francis situation and the trade down scenarios. I strongly agree with the possibility of Hayton in Carolina. I also agree that our strongest bet to trade down is Anaheim, but it would be a nightmarish scenario if the Devils did trade down into the 20s and Miller, Alexeyev and Woo were all gone by the time we picked.
Cool, thank you for the input. This answers the questions about him I had.
It all depends on what's offered and how badly the other team wants to move up. I'd take a 3rd or even a 4th from Columbus if they want to move up 1 spot and we knew they weren't taking our guy.
Like I said, Miller will rise in the final rankings. Just wait. I also gave you a couple of other "late rise" candidates like Bokk and Kaut. Jack McBain also might be one of those guys. In recent drafts, "high upside" opens eyes -- every scout and GM wants to think they can can grab a superstar-type diamond in the rough after the top 10 picks are off the board.
It's good to look at the more unconventional rankers, the independent guys. Pronman has Bokk at #8, both McKeen and Kournianos have raved about Miller's superstar upside. If ISS and CSS are slow to catch up, it's because they are more established and tend to be more reticent to change their earlier rankings. Whereas, a guy like Kournianos can just say something like, 'I can't believe I missed this guy, but now that I've watched a lot more film on him, I love him.'
Last year Kournianos had Mittelstadt ranked #1 or #2 overall most of the year. People said he was nuts. One year later, and we can confidently state that the Rangers will be slapping themselves in the foreheads for a long time for taking very good but not high-scoring Lias Andersson #7 with Mittelstadt (who now looks like Patrick Kane 2.0) still on the board.
Two years ago I was called a few things for having Clayton Keller ranked #3 over guys like Puljujarvi, Dubois and Nylander. Doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
In 2015 I was actually threatened physically for ranking Barzal #3 over Dylan Strome and Marner. It does not seem so absurd now. Then again, that draft I also ranked Gurianov #7, which makes me look like a knucklehead right now. So, I guess the lesson is you have to take chances based on convictions, but they can't all be right.
So, here are my rankings of D for the 2018 draft (subject to change, or be made fun of)
Now, Bouchard fans might think I am insulting him, but I am not. I'm crazy about the kid, I think he will be a terrific NHLer. I just think what you see now in the OHL is close to what you will get from him in the NHL, whereas Smith, Miller and Dobson are only scratching the surface.
Anaheim has no need for Schneider. The best bets, if Shero in fact trades Corey, would have to be Carolina or Edmonton.
Hey Steven, always appreciate these posts. Miller has intrigued me a lot this season and he could have a very high ceiling with his physical tools. However, that being said I am much higher up on a guy like Rasmus Sandin or Jett Woo in that spot instead based on smarts alone. Miller's very good positionally and aware in his own zone with a strong physical play along the boards. He's fluid and strong in his skating, but his decision-making really confuses me. I like the other aspects of his play like his snarl and good shot, but I question his "hockey IQ" and ability to read the play. For instance I see him attack the puck in the neutral zone, which leads to odd-man rushes against his own goalie. I see what you mean in terms of him having a high ceiling, and granted he's still learning the game as a defenseman rather than a forward (so who knows how much that contributes), but I don't know if we're in a position to take a gamble pick like that with this selection.
That being said, the ideal situation for me would be if Ty Smith somehow fell to our pick. Thanks again for this post!
It's easier to respond to someone like you who has done great research on these guys, so thanks.
I think Miller's hiccups all have to do with gaining experience on the backline more than anything else. He's really smart while defending in his own zone and his outlet passes are great, but I agree that I have seen him take ill-advised rushes and pinches. I think coaching will smooth that out and allow his insane athleticism to shine.
As for Ty Smith, I mentioned him before as an ideal trade-up candidate. He really was a joy to watch, lighting it up for the Spokane Chiefs this year. Though it would not shock me if he went 8-12, if for whatever reason he fell into the early teens, I'm certain the Devils braintrust would take notice.
As for Woo -- I love him. He is very physical, extremely competitive, outstanding skates. The only question about him is offense. He had solid numbers (33 points in 44 games) for a loaded Moose Jaw Warriors squad, but scouts are divided on whether he will be a top guy or a mobile, second-pairing defense first guy. I have stated before that I would be fine with Shero using the #17 pick to grab Woo or Alexeyev.
If I'm not as high on Sandin, it's not because of his offense or smarts. He's just not very strong or physical, and I see him as being the type of player whom you have to monitor their match-ups at the NHL level so that they are not physically overmatched. Though he is virtually the same size as Ty Smith, Smith is far more ferocious defending his own net and along the boards than Sandin. I think Sandin is a guy I might take in the late 20s or early second round, but not at 17 in a draft loaded on the backline.
If all those D were available, I would draft:
4 Trade Down
In a heartbeat. Boqvist is going to be an all-star defenseman.
The 17th pick has yielded some decent players in the last decade. Tomas Hertl and Jake Gardiner to name a few.
You're trading two potential very good players for one here. McLeod has the potential to eventually be a terrific second line center behind Nico, and there is a good chance that he starts 2018-19 as the top line RW with Nico and Hall.
Also, you're assuming that the Devils would take Boqvist over Hughes. Knowing that the Devils have a greater organizational need at LD than RD and that Hughes is the fastest skater in the 2018 draft (Shero loves the speed demons), I think if the Devils found themselves picking in the 4/5 slot, they could go with Hughes.
So, while I share your high regard for Boqvist, I think this scenario is not only unwise but also unlikely.
Always love seeing your input, Steven.
Given how high you are on Miller, that fact that he is 6th, should temper any ill will for Bouchard being 8. Also speaks to just how stacked this draft is in terms of defensemen. Which is very exciting given our need.
Given that, I think we need to walk out of here with a defenseman with that first pick. Granted it's a decent bet that BPA at our pick will be a d-man, but even if a highly ranked fwd is there. I'm picking the D.
Edit: Why do you think Bouchard has topped out, while those other guys have more room for growth. I get it Miller given he is new to the position, but why the other guys?
Thanks for the input, Steve. You know more about this draft class than I do.
Glad to hear your thoughts on McLeod, too.
I really like Bouchard. He checks off every box except for speed and he is not a poor skater, he's just not in the skating class of a Hughes or Bode Wilde. In opinion, there are three tiers in defense for this draft class
3 Everyone else
I think in the second tier, it's very close top to bottom, but it's a matter of what you want for your team. Want a speed demon who is a one-man breakout machine and can score 60+? Take Hughes or Boqvist. Want a fast and physical and big D who, if he answers a few lingering questions, can be a superstar? Take Wilde or Miller. Want a high-floor, big, traditional defenseman with a cannon from the point? Dobson or Bouchard. I mean, I'm generalizing a bit but you get the point. If the Devils drafted Bouchard, I would be thrilled.
So those guys are maybe a bit more dynamic? Sounds like they are better skaters.
I imagine skating will be a factor as to who Shero goes with.
Shero loves the speed demons and needs to draft for the blueline in a draft class heavy on quality defensemen. Taking into account that the Devils have no chance to get likely top-7 picks Dahlin, Hughes and Boqvist leads me to believe that the players the Devils will be monitoring the closest come draft day are Ty Smith, Bode Wilde, K'Andre Miller, Jett Woo and Alex Alexeyev.
I would also rule out Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson, as I believe they are snatched in the top 10.
Jared McIsaac is certain to be of some interest to the NJ scouts, as he was a teammate of Nico Hischier's in Halifax and is likely the most steady defensive defenseman in the draft. He is also a LHD, which the Devils need more than RHD in the organization. However, McIsaac is not the swiftest skater, and Shero has worked very diligently to build one of the fastest-skating squads in the NHL.
This is why I am focusing on the players most likely to be pulling on the Devils sweater on draft day: Smith, Wilde, Miller, Woo and Alexeyev. Smith or Wilde the Devils would likely have to trade up a few spots for, while Woo and Alexeyev they could likely trade down a few spots for and maybe recover their lost 2nd or 3rd round pick. Miller I think will go around where the Devils pick now, at #17.
Given how many draft picks the Devils have had in the past 2 years, isn't their a contract limit #'s crunch to consider? If so I'm not sure they would be looking to add more picks.
According to CapFriendly, we're at 48 out of 50 contracts, but a few come off the books in June if we don't re-sign them. Obviously Hayes, Stafford, and Lack, but I think Clowe is also taking up a slot. We probably opt not to re-sign a few minor leaguers too - Straight, Kearns, etc.
we are at 31/50 contracts for next year
NHL RFA- Wood, Noesen, Coleman, Santini
AHL RFA- Kapla, Lappin, Lucia, Bertschy, Rooney, Appleby
@StevenToddIves if you don't write for a living (hockey related or otherwise) you should be
But I'll assume all those NHL RFA's are back.
And we will need to ice an AHL team so if those guys aren't brought back, other guys will.
And the concern is really not for next year, as it's very possible that none of this years draftees will get contracts. But 2-3 years down the road, when all the 16 and 17 draftees are signed when it becomes an issue.