NEW: Our Too Early Sharks' Off-Season Plan

[hohosaregood]

Personally from what I've seen from Grier I trust his actions.

The Meier trade was great asset management, showed a clear direction, and he targeted good pieces from it. I like Zetts as a bottom six scoring winger, and he's got another year left and an RFA. Musty was a great pick, Muk has the potential to be a top 4 D, AND we get another pick. At the time I was a little upset at the return, but I think everyone including me have come around on that. Plus paying Meier 9 million sounds terrible.

The Karlsson trade was great because of the lack of retention. The hopefully mid-first rounder is an excellent cherry on top. Gave us a direction and a clear runway to get there.

I think his bargain hunting has been successful mostly. Emberson is good, Thrun was a good pickup at low cost, Addison is...fine? Take him or leave him really but he did add some offense. His signings haven't worked out but we'll see what he can get at the deadline for guys.

Overall I think he's done a really excellent job. I hope he continues this path and finds a star player or two or three because that's really the only chance this can be turned around quickly. He knows this too, he even mentioned that a lot changes with winning the lottery and getting Celebrini, or Bedard last year.

What I'm really really fearful of is that because of the nature of how he took over this job, some vague statements about possibly turning this around faster, sneaking into the playoffs like the Flyers this year, is that if he DOESN'T win the lottery, is he going to pull the ripcord solely because he feels like his job will be on the line in 2-3 years. That's my concern. If he wins the lottery, or the Sharks prospects start turning into actual stars, not just passable forwards and defenders, I don't really care. The pieces will be in place. It's the potential for ripcord pulling that worries me, but Grier has made the right moves (mostly) over and over so maybe I shouldn't worry too much.

I think his signings have been fine. Sturm has been a great addition, mostly for culture reasons, but he would have been the missing link for a lot of the DW bottom 6 groups. Benning and Burroughs are the only weird ones but they're easily buriable and would be good vets for the Cuda at some point.

Also shout out to picking up Eyssimont and flipping him for assets. That was a fun couple of months.

 

[Hodge]

All of Grier's signings except for Lindblom and Nutivaara have worked out and both flopped for the health related reasons that made them smart low risk mid reward bets in the first place. Sturm, Benning, Blackwood, Carpenter, Bailey and Burroughs have all generated positive value relative to their cap hits.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I live in NJ and this will always be so irritating to me. Not part of this core, but they won the Adam Larsson lottery too a bunch of years ago. Meanwhile I am sitting here resigned to the fact that not only will we not win any lotteries, we are going to drop in our draft position because of it. Oh to have the luck NJ enjoys.

The Devils have always been one of those strange organizations. They're often a basement-dwelling team, but when they are in the hunt, they are in it full stop.

Personally from what I've seen from Grier I trust his actions.

The Meier trade was great asset management, showed a clear direction, and he targeted good pieces from it. I like Zetts as a bottom six scoring winger, and he's got another year left and an RFA. Musty was a great pick, Muk has the potential to be a top 4 D, AND we get another pick. At the time I was a little upset at the return, but I think everyone including me have come around on that. Plus paying Meier 9 million sounds terrible.

The Karlsson trade was great because of the lack of retention. The hopefully mid-first rounder is an excellent cherry on top. Gave us a direction and a clear runway to get there.

This is the feeling everyone gets after these kinds of trades; our expectations are just not realistic. Over time, we realize he got a great return. Of course, I say this acknowledging the next time Grier trades away a major asset the same thing will happen again.

I think his bargain hunting has been successful mostly. Emberson is good, Thrun was a good pickup at low cost, Addison is...fine? Take him or leave him really but he did add some offense. His signings haven't worked out but we'll see what he can get at the deadline for guys.

His pro scouting has been excellent. Burroughs, Lindblom, and Kunin are the only disappointments that come to mind, and with the first two that might have been intentional...

 

[coooldude]

What I'm really really fearful of is that because of the nature of how he took over this job, some vague statements about possibly turning this around faster, sneaking into the playoffs like the Flyers this year, is that if he DOESN'T win the lottery, is he going to pull the ripcord solely because he feels like his job will be on the line in 2-3 years. That's my concern. If he wins the lottery, or the Sharks prospects start turning into actual stars, not just passable forwards and defenders, I don't really care. The pieces will be in place. It's the potential for ripcord pulling that worries me, but Grier has made the right moves (mostly) over and over so maybe I shouldn't worry too much.

I'd worry the same as you, not because he's not smart but because it's his early career. What's a better outcome, continuing to tank to try to get the magic lottery tickets we really do need, and have a 50% chance of driving the franchise into purgatory and a 50% chance of building a real contender, or pull the plane out of the nose dive, get back to "competitive" but not "contender" and call it a victory before Hasso dies and you are forced to move on? It all relies on how patient Hasso is with this rebuild. If Grier has job security, then keep picking top 5 all the way into 2028. If he doesn't, we're probably going to be in Detroit Territory and just hoping for some draft luck or big FA signings to get us deeper into the playoffs and hopefully beating the insane squads that were built in CHI, ANA, NJ, BUF (maybe), etc.

 

[hohosaregood]

With the way they talk about the org having to built from the foundation up, I think the plan is to keep drafting and developing as much as they can. It's gonna look more like a Nashville situation for awhile if we don't draft any superstars but if we can load up on top tier prospects, it'll be good ammunition to go big game hunting.

 

[Munnyro]

The Devils have always been one of those strange organizations. They're often a basement-dwelling team, but when they are in the hunt, they are in it full stop.


This is the feeling everyone gets after these kinds of trades; our expectations are just not realistic. Over time, we realize he got a great return. Of course, I say this acknowledging the next time Grier trades away a major asset the same thing will happen again.

His pro scouting has been excellent. Burroughs, Lindblom, and Kunin are the only disappointments that come to mind, and with the first two that might have been intentional...

I think everyone was surprised how bad Lindbolm was with the big club. Sucks for him and the team.

 

[Skeksis25]

Grier is going to have to find some real stars for the rebuild to actually start working. Whether its having people like Smith, Musty or some of the draft picks in the next couple years turn into bona fide All Star level players. Whether its accumulating enough assets to be able to trade for one. Whether its signing someone in FA who will properly live up to his contract.

All the good teams seem to have multiple point per game players, or high end defensemen or goalies. I'm not sure we have anything like that in the organization yet unless Smith takes some leaps. Feel like its a lot easier to acquire low value people who exceed expectations to be solid 3rd or 4th liners than acquiring true foundational pieces. I hope he gets the time to see if he can produce that and I am not ready to judge him in any meaningful way for another 2-3 years at least. But I don't know if I am overly excited that he has managed to acquire people like Sturm and Burroughs at good value. Feel like that's the minimum anyone would do.

 

[Jargon]

Grier is going to have to find some real stars for the rebuild to actually start working. Whether its having people like Smith, Musty or some of the draft picks in the next couple years turn into bona fide All Star level players. Whether its accumulating enough assets to be able to trade for one. Whether its signing someone in FA who will properly live up to his contract.

All the good teams seem to have multiple point per game players, or high end defensemen or goalies. I'm not sure we have anything like that in the organization yet unless Smith takes some leaps. Feel like its a lot easier to acquire low value people who exceed expectations to be solid 3rd or 4th liners than acquiring true foundational pieces. I hope he gets the time to see if he can produce that and I am not ready to judge him in any meaningful way for another 2-3 years at least. But I don't know if I am overly excited that he has managed to acquire people like Sturm and Burroughs at good value. Feel like that's the minimum anyone would do.

I think what he’s done in essentially one year is pretty impressive. He’s really had one draft and so far, Smith (if we assume Michkov said I won’t play for you), Musty and Cagnoni are looking good but who knows.

The Meier and Karlsson trades were excellent, as @Kcoyote3 says, and his ability to dig us out of our cap hell so quickly was wildly impressive. I agree that ultimately he’ll be judged by his success in a few years, specifically with drafting (though that’s SO much luck) and developing, but he’s had a hell of a start. Surgical, patient, shrewd. I like it.

But man, getting lucky and winning Celebrini will go a long way...

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Grier is going to have to find some real stars for the rebuild to actually start working. Whether its having people like Smith, Musty or some of the draft picks in the next couple years turn into bona fide All Star level players. Whether its accumulating enough assets to be able to trade for one. Whether its signing someone in FA who will properly live up to his contract.

All the good teams seem to have multiple point per game players, or high end defensemen or goalies. I'm not sure we have anything like that in the organization yet unless Smith takes some leaps. Feel like its a lot easier to acquire low value people who exceed expectations to be solid 3rd or 4th liners than acquiring true foundational pieces. I hope he gets the time to see if he can produce that and I am not ready to judge him in any meaningful way for another 2-3 years at least. But I don't know if I am overly excited that he has managed to acquire people like Sturm and Burroughs at good value. Feel like that's the minimum anyone would do.

Grier will definitely have to find some top end talent if the Sharks are going to contend at some point. I absolutely agree that the value plays for bottom of the roster players isn’t going to be what turns this org around. That being said, getting value from the bottom 6/pairing is what has held this team back so many playoff campaigns; so when the time comes it’s somewhat encouraging that Grier has at least partially demonstrated he can find positive value players for those roles (frankly, he’s had a lot of swings, with some misses, in a short time so it’s not all rainbows and unicorns)

I think the Sharks will be drafting pretty high, if not top 3-5 for at least a couple of drafts; Grier should be able to find top of the lineup talent. The team will also have cap space to sign UFAs, leverage for picks, or use to sweeten trades. As you said Grier will likely have to do all these things.

I’ll also be paying attention to se if Grier and his front office will be able:

- Get difference makers from the 2nd round and beyond; IMO this is what separates the Chicago/Kings dynasties from teams like the Oilers. It’d be nice if he could do better than the highwater mark, Greiss, in the 3rd round.

- Get the Cuda to a state where they are generally a benefit to the organization, beyond just filling the role as waystation/checkpoint for high-drafted prospects. It’d be great if the Cuda could be counted on to semi-regularly turn out an NHL player where there wasn’t already one there to begin with. Who’s the last player that came through the Sharks AHL that did that? Goodrow?

- In just a season or two the Sharks will have a pretty clean cap sheet; can they manage to avoid wasteful spending and navigate 2nd/3rd contracts without any/or limited misfires? Can they bring in high-value UFAs without having to overpay?

 

[Hodge]

Even if we trade Hertl and Couture, which I think we should for their own sake if nothing else, some lottery luck and a few key UFA signings could have us looking like this by 2025-26:

Eklund - Celebrini - Buchnevich
Musty - Smith - Zetterlund
Duclair - Gourde - Gushchin
Greenway - Sturm - Cardwell

Hanifin - Pionk
Ferraro - Emberson
Mukhamadullin - Benning

Blackwood
Chrona/UFA

I don't think that's a surefire playoff team but they should at least compete for a wild card spot if the goaltending holds up and the top prospects develop as expected.

 

[Skeksis25]

I'm always wary of penciling in all the top prospects in future lineups. Even if we get lucky and draft Celebrini, odds say that at least 1 or 2, maybe even more of Celebrini, Smith, Mukh and Musty will bust. Eklund isn't a sure thing yet either. Would be great if they didn't, but that's just how it goes.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I'm always wary of penciling in all the top prospects in future lineups. Even if we get lucky and draft Celebrini, odds say that at least 1 or 2, maybe even more of Celebrini, Smith, Mukh and Musty will bust. Eklund isn't a sure thing yet either. Would be great if they didn't, but that's just how it goes.

For me, Eklund falls into the "unless something very unusual happens, he's at least a 2nd-liner" category. It'd be irresponsible to plan otherwise.

 

[Hodge]

For me, Eklund falls into the "unless something very unusual happens, he's at least a 2nd-liner" category. It'd be irresponsible to plan otherwise.

Right, and I only penciled in Mukhamadullin for a 3rd pairing role. That could easily be a UFA signing if necessary. Or Thrun/Okhotyuk for that matter. Celebrini and Smith both have like a 95%+ chance of becoming top six forwards based on their NCAA production this season.

 

[timorous me]

Right, and I only penciled in Mukhamadullin for a 3rd pairing role. That could easily be a UFA signing if necessary. Or Thrun/Okhotyuk for that matter. Celebrini and Smith both have like a 95%+ chance of becoming top six forwards based on their NCAA production this season.

Yeah, it's all related to expectations. Mukh has already played in the NHL and pretty clearly has a 3rd pairing floor. I certainly think he can be more than that--my hope is good 2nd pairing D, with the potential for a little more--but if he only ends up as a solid 3rd pairing guy, I wouldn't call that a bust.

I totally agree on your assessment of Smith and Celebrini--though I suppose Celebrini only being a 2nd liner would be a disappointment, as guys with his profile and hype tend to pan out quite well.

And someone like Musty? I mean, I'm high on the kid, I love his profile and performance and attitude, and think he's going to end up as at least a middle-six guy. But it's not like I'm expecting him to be an All-Star first line guy. (He might end up as that! But I'm not betting on it, so I'm not going to hold it against him if he doesn't make it.)

 

[Kcoyote3]

We brought in Patrick Williams who covers the AHL for NHL.com and AHL.com to talk all things Barracuda. We wanted to get an outside perspective on McCarthy and why the Barracuda are so bad this year.

 

[Hobocop]

We brought in Patrick Williams who covers the AHL for NHL.com and AHL.com to talk all things Barracuda. We wanted to get an outside perspective on McCarthy and why the Barracuda are so bad this year.

Few things I had to say on this one.

He kept mentioning a lack of veteran presence on the team early on. The following guys are 27 or older: Sabourin, Rau, Simek, Cassels, Lindblom, Todd. We had to scratch Lindblom at one point early in the season because we had too many vets in the lineup. We don't have Carpenter or Bailey anymore, who are also vets (and I would really, really love both back) but there's plenty of experience on this team.

I mean, Henderson signed Adam Cracknell, who he kept mentioning, and they're in 8th. You've got a team like Tucson who are currently in 2nd, or Abbotsford in 4th, and I'm not seeing how on paper they're built any differently than we are.

Thought it was odd when asked about Simek and Knyzhov that he didn't really seem to have any comment on those two in particular and gave sort of a generic answer for guys coming down from the NHL. Simek's been great here. Knyzhov's been... fine. Not amazing.

The issue I have isn't that I think the roster is one of the strongest in the league. The thing you're not going to convince me of is that this roster is far and away the worst in the division.

--

(editing something in because I felt bad that I put nothing but negative things above)

I completely agree with you guys that going into the season with this group of goaltenders was a weird decision. Makiniemi already had the injury history. We had Chrona coming in already, for me it was bringing in Romanov as the third option that was a headscratcher. Dell would've been a good guy to add, or even someone like Grosenick, who has history here and is still performing well in this league.

The penalty kill is, like he mentioned, something that needs to get better if we're going to have any success. We're second-worst in the AHL in that department. I'm not sure if it's personnel, either. It feels like we have guys that should be able to handle that.

 

[Kcoyote3]

 

[Kcoyote3]

 

[DG93]

Great podcast, thanks a bunch. Pretty reasonably depressing evaluations of the Sharks assets imo...

 

[Kcoyote3]

Great podcast, thanks a bunch. Pretty reasonably depressing evaluations of the Sharks assets imo...

Reasonably depressing is the Sharks motto

 

[DG93]

Reasonably depressing is the Sharks motto

And I think a lot of those predictions can change depending on how the market goes. For example, if Saros and the Boston goalies are not on the market, I feel like Kahkonen could get more than a 3rd. Similarly, if the center market isn't great and Boston/Colorado start going after Granlund/Sturm, maybe they can get more than 4th rounders (especially Granlund).

 

[Hodge]

If he’s right about the returns for Duclair and Kahkonen being ~3rd round picks I would honestly just extend them.

 

[OrrNumber4]

If he’s right about the returns for Duclair and Kahkonen being ~3rd round picks I would honestly just extend them.

Really? Feels like both players have underwhelmed.

 

[Gecklund]

Really? Feels like both players have underwhelmed.

I wouldn’t really say either has underwhelmed…..

Duclair is at 19 in 49 as a complimentary winger. Slightly below his average but like he also has gotten very little help. When he’s played on a constant line (Granlund/Zetterlund) he’s performed at a 2nd line level.

Kahkonen has pretty good numbers considering the circumstances. This is probably one of the worst D cores in recent memory.

They both play in positions where we have big openings next year. I’d be okay with getting 3rds for both but it’s also understandable to want to resign them.

 

[Hodge]

Really? Feels like both players have underwhelmed.

Kahkonen has definitely not underwhelmed. His underlying numbers are very strong this season (almost 8 goals saved above expected according to Moneypuck) and eye test is also night and day compared to the first half of last season.

Duclair I would keep more for his off-ice leadership qualities unless we can get a legit return for him like a 2nd + something else. He’s also one of the very few forwards in the entire organization with speed and finish.

They’re also both young enough that signing them to 2-3 year extensions will allow us to kick the can down the road and get a similar return in a few years if we choose to. Basically I think they’re good stop gaps until we figure out what some of the prospects are going to top out as.