News Article: Murat/The Athletic: What is the problem with Winnipeg's penalty kill?

JetsFan815

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What is the problem with Winnipeg's penalty kill?
A couple of graphs from the article illustrating how bad the Jets PK is:

SAT-PK.png


xG-PK.png


Not sure how much of these Athletic articles we can copy paste as fair use but this was his conclusion which sums up the article:

When you watch 51 penalty kills back to back, you find patterns. Based on the lanes Winnipeg fills time and time again, I believe that all four Jets players were doing exactly what was asked of them on this play. In theory, each Stars shooter had somebody in his way. In practice, it only took two passes – from Klingberg to Radulov and from Radulov back to Klingberg – to open up a shooting lane. As Klingberg shot, it didn’t matter that he was the furthest Star to the net. He had an open lane and a man in front who was open by design.

To me, the philosophy behind this formation is clear: Winnipeg is happy to concede shot quantity in the name of preventing quality chances. In theory, it’s a calculated risk.

In practice, the Jets are getting pillaged in terms of quantity and quality.

If the Jets are going to have any success killing penalties this season, they’re going to have to either greatly reduce the number of free shots they allow or start doing a miraculously better job of clearing the inevitable rebounds they give up. Given the system they have in place, I’m not optimistic. And, if you’ll pardon the concussion pun, it’s giving me a headache.

I agree with the article. PK problems are systemic and cannot be fixed by players being practiced to "play faster". Imo as bad as the results of the PK have been, they deserve to be even worse! As soon as the goaltending goes from "godly" to "just good", this PK becomes a sub .700 PK.
 
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Gm0ney

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Ah, I just posted about this in the Special Teams thread:

I mentioned the xGA/60 stat the other day - the Jets aren't just bad at limiting chances (xGA/60) on the PK, they're in a class of their own.

From the article:
"When it comes to giving up shots and shots with the highest chance of going in, Winnipeg is an island."

"Overall, Winnipeg has played 24.23 minutes against 3F2D power plays and given up 86.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes while doing so. Thanks to impossibly sterling .950 save percentage and two shorthanded goals, Winnipeg is actually outscoring opposing 3F2D power plays."

"Against 4F1D power plays [this is where most of the minutes have been played], Winnipeg gives up 93.2 shots per 60 minutes, or just over three shots against every two-minute penalty kill. Worse than that, they give up 149.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes, roughly five shot attempts per two-minute kill. Those numbers are league leading — and not in the good way ... In short: Winnipeg gives up more shots, more shots from further away both as a total and as a proportion of all shots against, and more rebounds both as a total and as a percentage of total shots."

There's a good rundown of what a typical Jets PK formation looks like and what each player is trying to do. He points out that the Jets PK is operating as designed (getting in shooting lanes, preventing cross-seam passes, 'keeping it to the outside'...but it seems pretty easy to open up lanes) - the theory is to allow quantity vs. quality. Unfortunately: "In practice, the Jets are getting pillaged in terms of quantity and quality."
 

Aavco Cup

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I don't think anyone has been under any illusion that the Jets PK is anything but what it appears to be. We are at or near the bottom no matter which way you dice it or slice it.

Or to paraphrase Dennis Green

"The PK is what we thought the PK was"
 

JetsFan815

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I don't think anyone has been under any illusion that the Jets PK is anything but what it appears to be. We are at or near the bottom no matter which way you dice it or slice it.

Or to paraphrase Dennis Green

"The PK is what we thought the PK was"
If no one is under any illusions than one has to wonder why nothing has been done to change it. I haven't even heard Mo mention fixing the PK in their practices in his pressers. Based on his pressers the practices have all been about "playing faster"
 

Aavco Cup

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This article could have gone deeper.
It could have shown how we perform after losing a DZ face off.
It could have shown how we perform after winning a DZ face off.
It could have shown how effective we are at denying zone entry after a clear.

All of those things also contribute to the "how" we end up with those kind of results.
 
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Aavco Cup

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If no one is under any illusions than one has to wonder why nothing has been done to change it. I haven't even heard Mo mention fixing the PK in their practices in his pressers. Based on his pressers the practices have all been about "playing faster"

Again you have no idea what if anything the coaching staff has done or is doing to rectify things.

Also why would Maurice bring up the PK in his pressers? He is responding to questions. Someone has to ask him if they are doing that. And I've seen the media at Jets practice. They don't pay that much attention to what is actually going on out on the ice.
 

Gm0ney

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This article could have gone deeper.
It could have shown how we perform after losing a DZ face off.
It could have shown how we perform after winning a DZ face off.
It could have shown how effective we are at denying zone entry after a clear.

All of those things also contribute to the "how" we end up with those kind of results.
Maybe Dellow will follow up - this was Murat's article and wasn't looking things the same way Dellow was with his 5v5 article that went into all that last week.
 

surixon

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Again you have no idea what if anything the coaching staff has done or is doing to rectify things.

Also why would Maurice bring up the PK in his pressers? He is responding to questions. Someone has to ask him if they are doing that. And I've seen the media at Jets practice. They don't pay that much attention to what is actually going on out on the ice.

Or perhaps it might be time to admit that Maurice has substantial deficiencies in this aspect of coaching and that someone needs to be added to the staff to take control of the PK.

He's run poor PKs his entire career, even the playoff veteran laden team only had a mediocre PK. I have little if any faith that he can solve the issue. It seems to get worse the longer he attempts to work on it.
 

Gm0ney

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A bad PK is the escape root cause.
Don't take as many penalties...
Somewhat bad news: the Jets have been shorthanded the 11th-most times per game this year (3.69/game).

It was a promising early start that's kind of regressed to the Jets' norm.

To compare, last year the Jets were shorthanded the 3rd-most times per game (3.35/game).
 

Jetfaninflorida

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But we have Hendricks! LOL

Agree with Surixon. This one is squarely on the coaching staff. Bring in new thinking. This will be easily improved if we just adopt any almost any other system than the one we are using under Maurice. It's not like we need bigger sample sizes, it has always been marginal under Maurice.
 

ffh

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isn't the pk around 90% on the road. and if its around that number or high 80% on the road then if you can pk on the road then you should be able to do the same at home.
 

Gm0ney

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isn't the pk around 90% on the road. and if its around that number or high 80% on the road then if you can pk on the road then you should be able to do the same at home.
That's kind of a meaningless split. I don't think the Jets are using a different PK system or personnel on the road. I don't think they're worried about letting in a bad goal in front of the home fans that makes them more prone to mistakes. It's probably just random variance in a small sample.
 

Howard Chuck

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Maybe I'm simplifying, but most PK's are pressuring us all the time. Anticipating a pass and getting to the receiver of the pass at almost the same time as the puck, forcing us to act quicker and turn over the puck. We do NOT do that at all. As a matter of fact we are sometimes a single stride away from the puck carrier and stop.

We looked like we were doing a good job of denying zone entry a few games back, and doing it pretty consistently during that game, but I haven't seen much of that consistently.

I would love to know what is being coached, just to see if it's on the players or the coaching or both.
 

Aavco Cup

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Or perhaps it might be time to admit that Maurice has substantial deficiencies in this aspect of coaching and that someone needs to be added to the staff to take control of the PK.

He's run poor PKs his entire career, even the playoff veteran laden team only had a mediocre PK. I have little if any faith that he can solve the issue. It seems to get worse the longer he attempts to work on it.

We've gone through Perry Pearn, Pascal Vincent and now Kompon. And of course we've always had Huddy. I haven't seen enough of the practices this year but last year the PP seemed to be
Kompon's department while the PK was Huddy's.

Of course the head coach is ultimately responsible for the whole mess.

Here's the thing. We're not about to go through a coaching change anytime soon. So we can only hope that someone somehow figures out the PK soon. I'm not so worried about the PP but the PK could be our Achilles heel.
 
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YWGinYYZ

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A word of warning: nothing behind paywalls can be copy/pasted - there is no fair use on material that needs to be paid for to read.

Just a heads up if posts disappear in future.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
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A word of warning: nothing behind paywalls can be copy/pasted - there is no fair use on material that needs to be paid for to read.

Just a heads up if posts disappear in future.

I would guess though that the stuff Dellow makes public himself on twitter is fair game?

Also if you click on the link to an article you can read the first paragraph or so before the wall hits. Is that part not fair game?
 

surixon

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We've gone through Perry Pearn, Pascal Vincent and now Kompon. And of course we've always had Hudypdy. I haven't seen enough of the practices this year but last year the PP seemed to be Lompon's department while the PK was Huddy's.

Of course the head coach is ultimately responsible for the whole mess.

Here's the thing. We're not about to go through a coaching change anytime soon. So we can only hope that someone somehow figures out the PK soon. I'm not so worried about the PP but the PK could be our Achilles heel.

Either way it falls on his shoulders to fix either by getting involved himself or delegating the task to someone who is competent in the area. I don't expect Maurice to be a master in all coaching disciplines, its why there are assistants with different levels of expertise on his staff. It seems that adding Kompon and his experience running good power plays with highly skilled players is starting to pay off in the form of a much more potent PP. I think the injection of someone to do the same on the PK is also needed. Maybe take the responsibility away from Huddy and let Woodcroft try his hand at it if there aren't any plans to bring a fresh voice in.
 
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YWGinYYZ

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I would guess though that the stuff Dellow makes public himself on twitter is fair game?

Also if you click on the link to an article you can read the first paragraph or so before the wall hits. Is that part not fair game?

Yes, I should have clarified: anything that's been made public is fair game (twitter, first paragraph as long as it's a small enough quote that it falls under fair use, etc). Thanks for asking, Aavco.
 

Ducky10

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Maybe I'm simplifying, but most PK's are pressuring us all the time. Anticipating a pass and getting to the receiver of the pass at almost the same time as the puck, forcing us to act quicker and turn over the puck. We do NOT do that at all. As a matter of fact we are sometimes a single stride away from the puck carrier and stop.

We looked like we were doing a good job of denying zone entry a few games back, and doing it pretty consistently during that game, but I haven't seen much of that consistently.

I would love to know what is being coached, just to see if it's on the players or the coaching or both.

Most teams play an aggressive box or a diamond against the Jets when they operate in the umbrella, both are predicated on pressuring the puck and constant rotation. As evidenced by the Jets success rate it's a higher risk system because everyone needs to be making the right reads on and off the puck, if you don't it leaves the type of gaps the Jets have been exploiting.

I'd like to see the Jets run more of a collapsing diamond, especially with a guy like Tanev on the ice. I think it's a better compromise on the completely collapsing thing they're doing at the moment. I do think they have been better at denying entry, their reads and angles on the puck have been pretty good and they are forcing the pucks in good areas.
 

dratbunnies

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Really enjoyed that article actually. Did a good job breaking down what the system is, the general goal behind it, and examples of how it breaks down (coupled with some heart-breaking stats about just how bad it is :( ).

On the other hand, I do feel like the break downs they showed were quite distinct and results of the situation, not results of the system itself. I would have appreciated an analysis of why this system lends itself to such break downs. Is it too incredibly taxing on the skaters and so very difficult to execute? Do our PKers just have instincts that don't lend themselves to this system? Or is this "allow quantity but limit quality" strategy just unfeasible? Really I am interested in where the strategy starts breaking down. What can we tweak about it to get the best improvements, or is it truly wisest to throw it in the trash and start again?
 

ecolad

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Most teams play an aggressive box or a diamond against the Jets when they operate in the umbrella, both are predicated on pressuring the puck and constant rotation. As evidenced by the Jets success rate it's a higher risk system because everyone needs to be making the right reads on and off the puck, if you don't it leaves the type of gaps the Jets have been exploiting.

I'd like to see the Jets run more of a collapsing diamond, especially with a guy like Tanev on the ice. I think it's a better compromise on the completely collapsing thing they're doing at the moment. I do think they have been better at denying entry, their reads and angles on the puck have been pretty good and they are forcing the pucks in good areas.

Agree with this totally Ducky10. Any modification moving away from the collapsing thing they`re doing at the moment is a definite step in the right direction. Actually, if we were prepared to go the full nine-yards towards a pressure-based system, my favorite would be the "Wedge+1", with speedsters like Tanev freed up to chase the puck everywhere, while the base three players form a relatively tight triangle or wedge protecting home plate. Such system does however require that the players do some rotation work and requires players with attributes different than those seen as prerequisite by Maurice at this time.
 
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Mud Turtle

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We are almost 20 games in with a PK that is other worldly bad and the coach is sticking with it. That is how Maurice operates. He is terrible at making adjustments in game and in season.

Totally agree. Maurice seems to dig his heels in and it only makes it worse. We are a championship caliber team, if only Maurice would let the talent shine.
Goaltending is the ONE and only reason we’re above 500.
 
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