OT: Much Ado About Kovy - Still in Russia

[bobilly45]

you guys are really overvaluing a 34 year old kovalchuk lol.

we will prob get a 2nd round pick

You're devaluing him greatly lol

 

[Jersey Fresh]

If there's 'significant interest' around the league as has been reported, his trade value is going to be higher than the pessimists think. The Devils have the most leverage here. If they don't like the return, they can tell the other team to kick rocks and let Kovy play in Russia next year, potentially diminishing his NHL earning potential by aging another year in his mid-30s as well as risk injury. The Devils lose nothing by walking away.

They also gain nothing. I'd rather get a free 2nd round pick and send him out west than "take a stand" and get nothing.

 

[NJDevs26]

If there's 'significant interest' around the league as has been reported, his trade value is going to be higher than the pessimists think. The Devils have the most leverage here. If they don't like the return, they can tell the other team to kick rocks and let Kovy play in Russia next year, potentially diminishing his NHL earning potential by aging another year in his mid-30s as well as risk injury. The Devils lose nothing by walking away.

Significant interest can be a fairly loose term, and that's if you believe Brooks and his sources on this one. Significant interest can mean yeah we want him as long as the cost isn't that high.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

That's the thing. He's not going to go to a contender and play for peanuts. How many contenders can fit him in at whatever his asking price is?

He has to sign through the DEVILS. We can always retain 50% of the contract too. That would really maximize his value.

They also gain nothing. I'd rather get a free 2nd round pick and send him out west than "take a stand" and get nothing.

So you think of all the teams that will be interested, and there will be at least 7-10 I can guarantee that, probably more like 10-15, the most Shero will be able to get is a 2nd round pick? Thats ridiculous.

Significant interest can be a fairly loose term, and that's if you believe Brooks and his sources on this one. Significant interest can mean yeah we want him as long as the cost isn't that high.

"Significant interest" and "as long as the cost isn't that high" do not go together. If there is significant interest, it is assumed the cost will be pretty high. Thats how prices/value of players raise, there are multiples teams coveting that player. Just like anything else in life.

 

[MichaelJ]

They also gain nothing. I'd rather get a free 2nd round pick and send him out west than "take a stand" and get nothing.

With all the picks we have, I'd play hard ball and negotiate from strength. Accepting whatever scraps we're offered is negotiating from weakness. I'm not saying get nothing, but prepare to negotiate based on it.

 

[Hisch13r]

You're devaluing him greatly lol

Hanzal got a 1st and a 2nd as a rental. Kovalchuk will get us something pretty good back

 

[TaiMaiShu]

Someone proposed retaining 50% on a Kovy sign and trade, though huge value, would be cap circumventing.


Thoughts?

 

[NJDevs26]

"Significant interest" and "as long as the cost isn't that high" do not go together. If there is significant interest, it is assumed the cost will be pretty high. Thats how prices/value of players raise, there are multiples teams coveting that player. Just like anything else in life.

Or teams are assuming Shero's not going to ask for some of the over the top proposals that have been made here for a guy who's a question mark he doesn't want and who doesn't want to be here, it's not mutually exclusive. A lot of teams have significant interest in the big-time college UFA's in part cause they don't cost a lot, just like a lot of teams have interest in players they assume whose value is depreciated for one reason or another.

 

[Hisch13r]

Someone proposed retaining 50% on a Kovy sign and trade, though huge value, would be cap circumventing.


Thoughts?

He could play here until the deadline then we retain 50% and there'd be no problem

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Or teams are assuming Shero's not going to ask for some of the over the top proposals that have been made here for a guy he doesn't want and who doesn't want to be here, it's not mutually exclusive. A lot of teams have significant interest in the big-time college UFA's in part cause they don't cost a lot, a lot of teams have interest in players they assume whose value is depreciated for one reason or another.

.... and Kovalchuk is not a college UFA.... what does that have to do with anything. College UFAs are simply signed to entry level deals that are set at a max price. the value can't be driven up due to competition. Kovalchuk has to be traded which drives price up. and he can only sign with the Devils which drives his contract value down

 

[NJDevs26]

.... and Kovalchuk is not a college UFA.... what does that have to do with anything. College UFAs are simply signed to entry level deals that are set at a max price. the value can't be driven up due to competition. Kovalchuk has to be traded which drives price up. and he can only sign with the Devils which drives his contract value down

I was giving an example of how significant interest could be tied in part to not costing a lot in terms of assets and/or money.

If you guys want to think this player's still going to bring a return as if he was still the 40-50 goal scorer in his prime when he's likely on a short-term big money deal, when there's only so many teams you can trade him to, and he has major question marks with age/injury be my guest, and it only does take one nut GM to overpay. I just don't think if you ask for a first round pick or a major prospect you're getting it, let alone both. Maybe a 1 if it's lottery protected from a contender, maybe. Probably more likely the offers will be a 2/3 package which would be just fine by me but I think some of you are setting yourselves up for dissapointment.

 

[MichaelJ]

Or teams are assuming Shero's not going to ask for some of the over the top proposals that have been made here for a guy who's a question mark he doesn't want and who doesn't want to be here, it's not mutually exclusive. A lot of teams have significant interest in the big-time college UFA's in part cause they don't cost a lot, just like a lot of teams have interest in players they assume whose value is depreciated for one reason or another.

So, I'm the GM of a contender and I only want a potential 60-point player (on a contract favorable to me because I negotiated it) if I can get him for garbage? I'm sure they'll offer as little as possible but that doesn't mean that's the price. It doesn't matter that Kovy doesn't want to play for the Devils the same way it would for another player refusing to sign or demanding a trade - we don't have to get rid of him. He's not on the roster and he's basically falling (back) into our laps.

The only way that this impacts his value is if there's only one team he's willing to play for and in that case forget it. No reason for the Devils to allow him to dictate anything. We can work with him but we don't have to let him call all the shots.

 

[Hisch13r]

So, I'm the GM of a contender and I only want a potential 60-point player (on a contract favorable to me because I negotiated it) if I can get him for garbage? I'm sure they'll offer as little as possible but that doesn't mean that's the price. It doesn't matter that Kovy doesn't want to play for the Devils the same way it would for another player refusing to sign or demanding a trade - we don't have to get rid of him. He's not on the roster and he's basically falling (back) into our laps.

The only way that this impacts his value is if there's only one team he's willing to play for and in that case forget it. No reason for the Devils to allow him to dictate anything. We can work with him but we don't have to let him call all the shots.

Yeah there is absolutely no negatives to this no matter how you slice it

 

[Billdo]

So, I'm the GM of a contender and I only want a potential 60-point player (on a contract favorable to me because I negotiated it) if I can get him for garbage? I'm sure they'll offer as little as possible but that doesn't mean that's the price. It doesn't matter that Kovy doesn't want to play for the Devils the same way it would for another player refusing to sign or demanding a trade - we don't have to get rid of him. He's not on the roster and he's basically falling (back) into our laps.

The only way that this impacts his value is if there's only one team he's willing to play for and in that case forget it. No reason for the Devils to allow him to dictate anything. We can work with him but we don't have to let him call all the shots.

Period. Stop. There's no negative to this situation. If he says I only want to play for so and so but that team is only offering a pile of crap, we can tell him to F off. It's simple. There isn't a single negative to us as an organization with this.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I was giving an example of how significant interest could be tied in part to not costing a lot in terms of assets and/or money.

If you guys want to think this player's still going to bring a return as if he was still the 40-50 goal scorer in his prime when he's likely on a short-term big money deal, when there's only so many teams you can trade him to, and he has major question marks with age/injury be my guest, and it only does take one nut GM to overpay. I just don't think if you ask for a first round pick or a major prospect you're getting it, let alone both. Maybe a 1 if it's lottery protected from a contender, maybe. Probably more likely the offers will be a 2/3 package which would be just fine by me but I think some of you are setting yourselves up for dissapointment.

You have to remember that the expansion draft plays a huge role in this. There will be some teams that have too many defenseman to protect and not enough forwards (such as Anaheim) where a deal with Kovalchuk could be huge. I really want Shero to push hard to acquire Fowler. Maybe like Fowler to NJ for Kovalchuk + 2017 2nd. Or maybe the same deal for Brodin in Minny. Though I think Fowler is better than Brodin. So I would really wish for Fowler, but I think getting Brodin would/could be cheaper and in turn better for the organization. I have so much confidence in Shero that I think he could acquire Brodin AND be able to keep Kovalchuk. Maybe something like 2017 2nd, 2018 2nd, 2017 3rd, Gignac for Brodin. Shero is a trade wizard.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Can someone explain this. I would imagine, like most players in the NHL, there value is assessed based off their contract. A good player with a bad contract may have negative value where the opposite would have positive value.

Considering if Kovy does not want to be a Devil, how would his contract be negotiated and in turn how would that affect the return the Devils would receive? Can Kovy's agent talk to only the Devils or is he allowed to gauge the asking price from other teams?

 

[New Jack City]

A 38 year old Martin St. Louis was traded for a 1, 2 and Callahan. There were some conditions in place there, but I think getting a 1st rounder or 2 + good prospect is realistic

 

[MichaelJ]

Can someone explain this. I would imagine, like most players in the NHL, there value is assessed based off their contract. A good player with a bad contract may have negative value where the opposite would have positive value.

Considering if Kovy does not want to be a Devil, how would his contract be negotiated and in turn how would that affect the return the Devils would receive? Can Kovy's agent talk to only the Devils or is he allowed to gauge the asking price from other teams?

I don't know but I'd assume it's the same as when a team trades a player contingent on a contract extension. Don't know what tampering rules might apply but I'm sure the Devils will know what Kovalchuk's contract demands are and can communicate to the destination team.

 

[MadDevil]

A 38 year old Martin St. Louis was traded for a 1, 2 and Callahan. There were some conditions in place there, but I think getting a 1st rounder or 2 + good prospect is realistic

He was also basically a PPG player at the time he was traded so I'm not sure how that compares to a guy who last played in the NHL in 2013.

If your general point is that some GM could be stupid and overpay for him, then sure. I tend to think it's more likely we get a 2nd + 3rd or 2nd + middling prospect than a late 1st or significant prospect though.

 

[OmNomNom]

Regarding value - remember when vern fiddler netted us a 4th?

I think the trade deadline idea is a good one. See if we can convince kovy to see where our team is with him on it, and if it's no good trade him to a competitor. He could merc and let his fam stay in nj or Florida for a small part of a season.

I mean, his fam is a factor, but winning a cup is def one factor of his as well.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

A 38 year old Martin St. Louis was traded for a 1, 2 and Callahan. There were some conditions in place there, but I think getting a 1st rounder or 2 + good prospect is realistic

at the deadline.

trade value at the deadline is completely different than it is in the summer.

 

[Hisch13r]

Regarding value - remember when vern fiddler netted us a 4th?

I think the trade deadline idea is a good one. See if we can convince kovy to see where our team is with him on it, and if it's no good trade him to a competitor. He could merc and let his fam stay in nj or Florida for a small part of a season.

I mean, his fam is a factor, but winning a cup is def one factor of his as well.

On the same hand PA somehow only got us a 6th but Gelinas also got us a 3rd lol

at the deadline.

trade value at the deadline is completely different than it is in the summer.

If he's willing to play here until the deadline then that's what we should do and I could see him wanting to do that.

 

[Zippy316]

Hanzal got a 1st and a 2nd as a rental. Kovalchuk will get us something pretty good back

Kovalchuk is a 34 year old winger four years removed from the NHL and who has had injury issues in the past.

I highly, highly doubt any team is going to offer up more than a 2nd round pick.

 

[NJDevs26]

I was advocating keeping him till the trade deadline before to drive his value up and was told it wasn't realistic. They may have to keep him for a little depending on what happens with this knee surgery though.

And yeah there are outliers for everything...Fiddler for a 4th was great value compared to what the expectation should have been. PAP for a 6th was seen as lousy value cause people convinced themselves he'd get more, but really the value was about where it should have been there. But realistically I think it's better to underhype expectations to avoid the dissapointment when basically anything you get for this player is a plus or net neutral at worst.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Regarding value - remember when vern fiddler netted us a 4th?

I think the trade deadline idea is a good one. See if we can convince kovy to see where our team is with him on it, and if it's no good trade him to a competitor. He could merc and let his fam stay in nj or Florida for a small part of a season.

I mean, his fam is a factor, but winning a cup is def one factor of his as well.

There's a difference of a multi-year vs one year contract. And I doubt Kovy would sign a 1-year contract.